• Login
  • Register
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Podcasts
  • Newsletter
  • Premium
  • Donate
  • Log In
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result

School Closures Had No Effect On Transmission in Japan

by Noah Carl
15 March 2022 9:21 AM

Back in June of last year, I wrote about a Swedish study which found that keeping schools open had only a minor impact on the spread of Covid. This study was noteworthy because of the rigorous methods it employed to tackle the question at hand.

The authors compared parents whose youngest child was in the last year of lower-secondary school to those whose youngest child was in the first year of upper-secondary school. (Since upper-secondary schools were closed, whereas lower-secondary schools remained open, this allowed them to isolate the impact of school closures.)

They found that there was only one additional positive PCR test per 1,000 parents among those whose youngest child was in the last year of lower-secondary school. This implied, the authors calculated, that keeping schools open led to only 620 additional cases of Covid (in a country that had seen more than 53,000 by the end of the study period).

A Japanese study published in October of last year reaches similar conclusions. Kentaro Fukumoto and colleagues compared the rate of daily new confirmed cases of Covid between municipalities that did and did not implement school closures. (In Japan, this policy was decided at the level of municipalities – of which there are more than 1,700.)

To ensure the two groups of municipalities were comparable, the researchers implemented a rigorous matching procedure. Specifically, they matched each municipality that kept schools open to the most similar possible municipality that closed schools. Dozens of variables were taken into account when gauging similarity.

After matching on all these variables, the only policy with respect to which municipalities in the two groups differed was school closures. In other words, no two matched municipalities were subject to different policies on staying-at-home, closing businesses or cancelling public events. (Note: in Japan, these policies were requests, rather than orders.)

The researchers found that case rates were not significantly higher in municipalities that kept schools open. They ran a number of additional analyses, and confirmed that their results were robust. School closures had no discernible impact on the spread of Covid in Japan. (Note: another Japanese study made the same finding back in 2020.)

So what’s true in Sweden is also true in Japan. There is little benefit, if any, to closing schools. And of course, this picayune benefit has to be weighed against the many, very tangible costs of school closures. It’s no wonder that even erstwhile members of Independent SAGE are admitting they got this one wrong.

Tags: JapanLockdownSchool Closures

Donate

We depend on your donations to keep this site going. Please give what you can.

Donate Today

Comment on this Article

You’ll need to set up an account to comment if you don’t already have one. We ask for a minimum donation of £5 if you'd like to make a comment or post in our Forums.

Sign Up
Previous Post

Neither ‘Noble Lie’ Nor ‘New Evidence’ Can Justify Chris Whitty’s Mask U-Turn

Next Post

British Airways, Virgin Atlantic and Heathrow Scrap Mask Mandates

Subscribe
Login
Notify of
Please log in to comment

To join in with the discussion please make a donation to The Daily Sceptic.

Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.

47 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

NEWSLETTER

View today’s newsletter

To receive our latest news in the form of a daily email, enter your details here:

DONATE

PODCAST

The Sceptic | Episode 40: Rob Bates on Stopping Britain Becoming Majority-Minority, Tilak Doshi on Trump vs Green Blob and Mario Trabucco on Osborne’s Elgin Marbles Betrayal

by Richard Eldred
13 June 2025
1

LISTED ARTICLES

  • Most Read
  • Most Commented
  • Editor’s Picks

As a Civil Servant, I Can Tell You Dissent From DEI Dogma is Not Allowed

13 June 2025
by Anonymous Civil Servant

Watch: Labour Minister Makes False Claim on BBC Question Time That Most Small Boat Migrants are Women and Children – With No Correction From BBC

13 June 2025
by Will Jones

Israel and Iran Are Now at War

13 June 2025
by Will Jones

The Great Climate Science Swindle Goes On

12 June 2025
by Chris Morrison

News Round-Up

14 June 2025
by Toby Young

Israel and Iran Are Now at War

46

Watch: Labour Minister Makes False Claim on BBC Question Time That Most Small Boat Migrants are Women and Children – With No Correction From BBC

19

News Round-Up

14

As a Civil Servant, I Can Tell You Dissent From DEI Dogma is Not Allowed

11

Abortion Up to Birth by the Back Door

49

Oxford is Now More or Less a Quango

14 June 2025
by Darren Gee

The Two-Stroke Engine of Brian Wilson

14 June 2025
by James Alexander

As a Civil Servant, I Can Tell You Dissent From DEI Dogma is Not Allowed

13 June 2025
by Anonymous Civil Servant

Woke Waste Has Become Even Worse Under Labour

13 June 2025
by Charlotte Gill

I’ll Take the High Road

12 June 2025
by Dr James Allan

POSTS BY DATE

March 2022
M T W T F S S
 123456
78910111213
14151617181920
21222324252627
28293031  
« Feb   Apr »

SOCIAL LINKS

Free Speech Union

NEWSLETTER

View today’s newsletter

To receive our latest news in the form of a daily email, enter your details here:

POSTS BY DATE

March 2022
M T W T F S S
 123456
78910111213
14151617181920
21222324252627
28293031  
« Feb   Apr »

DONATE

LISTED ARTICLES

  • Most Read
  • Most Commented
  • Editor’s Picks

As a Civil Servant, I Can Tell You Dissent From DEI Dogma is Not Allowed

13 June 2025
by Anonymous Civil Servant

Watch: Labour Minister Makes False Claim on BBC Question Time That Most Small Boat Migrants are Women and Children – With No Correction From BBC

13 June 2025
by Will Jones

Israel and Iran Are Now at War

13 June 2025
by Will Jones

The Great Climate Science Swindle Goes On

12 June 2025
by Chris Morrison

News Round-Up

14 June 2025
by Toby Young

Israel and Iran Are Now at War

46

Watch: Labour Minister Makes False Claim on BBC Question Time That Most Small Boat Migrants are Women and Children – With No Correction From BBC

19

News Round-Up

14

As a Civil Servant, I Can Tell You Dissent From DEI Dogma is Not Allowed

11

Abortion Up to Birth by the Back Door

49

Oxford is Now More or Less a Quango

14 June 2025
by Darren Gee

The Two-Stroke Engine of Brian Wilson

14 June 2025
by James Alexander

As a Civil Servant, I Can Tell You Dissent From DEI Dogma is Not Allowed

13 June 2025
by Anonymous Civil Servant

Woke Waste Has Become Even Worse Under Labour

13 June 2025
by Charlotte Gill

I’ll Take the High Road

12 June 2025
by Dr James Allan

SOCIAL LINKS

Free Speech Union
  • Home
  • About us
  • Donate
  • Privacy Policy

Facebook

  • X

Instagram

RSS

Subscribe to our newsletter

© Skeptics Ltd.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password? Sign Up

Create New Account!

Fill the forms below to register

All fields are required. Log In

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Podcasts
  • Newsletter
  • Premium
  • Donate
  • Log In

© Skeptics Ltd.

wpDiscuz
You are going to send email to

Move Comment