Deaths in England and Wales were 7.8% below the five-year average for the week ending January 7th, ONS data show, in the latest sign that the pandemic is coming to an end. The Telegraph has more.
The fall remains even though the ONS has removed 2020 from its five-year average figure because the first year of the pandemic was so extreme.
When 2021 was also removed there were just 87 more deaths than expected, which experts said was “nothing unusual”, arguing that the 922 Covid deaths reported that week were being offset by fewer deaths from traditional winter killers such as flu.
The ONS figures also show that the virus was not the primary cause of death in nearly a quarter of the registered Covid deaths.
Prof Andrew Hayward, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), said he expected the virus to settle into a seasonal pattern that will cause “much less disruption”.
“We may still get quite big winters of infection but not the sort of level where we can justify wholesale societal closedown,” Prof Hayward told Times Radio. “So I think it is genuinely an optimistic picture.”
For the U.K. as a whole, deaths were down 8.3%, with 1,255 fewer people dying than would normally be expected for the first week of January.
Worth reading in full.
To join in with the discussion please make a donation to The Daily Sceptic.
Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.
Because the old and frail have been picked off by bad flu. There are less left to tie as per normal schedule
The vaccines did nothing at all (except injure some people)
Professor Norman Fenton said it didn’t he, that there was no clear evidence that they reduced all cause mortality. I wonder if the BBC did cover his remarks, or if they were too busy quoting discredited computer modellers (and sightings of rare wood peckers).
reduced?
The placebo all cause mortality was lower than the jabbed in the pfiser trial.
No honest MSM left in this country. All are funded by and in service to Globalist Billionaires.
I’ve been studying the US news media since the 80s. “Advocacy journalism” was going back then. (I’d learned that it was being taught in a university school of journalism in the city where I was living.) Yours and ours are so far Left that some can be characterized as borderline fascist.
…only ‘borderline’?
The “dry tinder” phenomenon.
Clues That a Major COVID ‘Rethink’ May Be in the Works
https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2022/01/19/pandemic-narrative-undergoes-radical-u-turn.aspx
It’s happening here in the US and abroad. Suddenly, health officials are taking a ‘180’ in their narrative about the pandemic. News headlines are dramatically switching from fearmongering to a more truthful tone. Is the end to mass jabs and lockdowns in sight? Pandemic Narrative Undergoes Radical U-Turn
Analysis by Dr. Joseph Mercola
Please come and join our friendly peaceful events.
Thursday 20th January 5pm
Silent lighted walk behind one simple sign
“No More Lockdown”
Bring torches, candles and other lights
Meet by the Town Hall, Market Place,
Henley-on-Thames, Oxfordshire, RG9 2AQ
Stand in the Park Sundays 10am make friends, ignore the madness & keep sane
Wokingham Howard Palmer Gardens Cockpit Path car park Sturges Rd RG40 2HD
Henley Mills Meadows (at the bandstand) Henley-on-Thames RG9 1DS
Telegram Group
http://t.me/astandintheparkbracknell
“Covid deaths were being offset by frewer deaths from Winter killers such as flu”.
Wasn’t there a time some while back when rises in “covid” deaths in some parts of the “United States” were being pretty much offset by falls in common killers such as heart disease?
So far as I am concerned, there has been no place for these extreme restrictions at leasr since the all cause mortality data to March came out for Belarus, and arguably much earlier, so I’d like to know what they are playing at by continuing this damaging interference in our lives (I have my suspicions of course, but they should tell us themselves what they’ve been up to at Davos and elsewhere).
The vaccines and boosters have saved SOOOO many, there’s a lack of dyings, innit?
In fact, they’re veritably springing from the graves – have you not noticed all the churned up earth in the cemeteries?
Yeah, and it’s only them evil antivaxxers wot been spreading it, innit?
One might almost conclude that the whole thing has been a complete and utter crock of shit from start to finish, no?
Yeah, but our communities…
It turns out that since this all started 17,371 poor souls have died purely ‘of covid’, and of which 13,597 were over the age of 65. This of course means 3,774 died ‘of covid’ and were under 65, over two years. Now tell me again why this is such a horrendous killer and necessitated taking away our liberty, freedom and sound minds…
As for the 150,000 deaths that the likes of the BBC and Sky go on about, well, what do you expect from these bare faced liars.
Source: ONS FOI Request
Oh, how I cried, then laughed… 50 crazy restrictions.
I was pilloried for being a lockdown sceptic – now it’s clear I was right about quite a few things (telegraph.co.uk)
As we begin 2022 I hope the British people see some sense…
That football club on the English/Welsh border is right up there. Fans could theoretically watch a match on a big screen in the carpark on the English side but not from the neighbouring stands on the Welsh side. Their former manager was pushing the “vaccines” too!
Life insurer refuses to cover vaccine death (freewestmedia.com)
Life insurer refuses to cover vaccine death
“An explosive case is currently being hotly debated on social media: In France, a rich, older entrepreneur from Paris is said to have died as a result of a Corona injection. Previously, he had taken out multi-million dollar life insurance policies for the benefit of his children and grandchildren, according to a media report.”
“Although vaccination is recognized as the cause of death by doctors and the insurance company, it has refused to pay out. The reason is because the side effects of the Corona jabs are known and published. They argue that the deceased took part in an experiment at his own risk.”
“The court allegedly justified its ruling as follows: “The side effects of the experimental vaccine are published and the deceased could not claim to have known nothing about it when he voluntarily took the vaccine. There is no law or mandate in France that compelled him to be vaccinated. Hence his death is essentially suicide.” Since suicide is not covered by the policy from the outset, the insurance refuses to budge.”
Excellent, we need more of this to ram home the message to the vaxoids, but they are stupid and won’t care because it’s not their insurance refusing to pay out (yet….) and the indemnity of the pharmaceutical companies hardly registered, along with other clearly stated facts, in the headlong rush to be saved by the vaxxes.
I welcome the news. But the message is bad: It means that Monsieur Macron can drag people through the shit to make them become vaccinated to his heart’s content. But if something bad happens because of this, it’s the culpable responsibility of those who didn’t want to be dragged through the shit.
That’s privatize the profits, socialize the costs at it’s worst.
Playing devil’s advocate: wouldn’t we expect to see excess deaths in a scenario where excessive numbers of people were dying as a result of the injections? I know long-term effects could yet be a major problem but still….
Well, but why would they be dying because of that, at least dying in relatively large numbers? The notion that the COVID vaccines have some rather elusive benefits but are demonstrably mostly harmless is crucial to the whole vaccination scam. After all, in an ideal Pfizer-world, the company wants to make money from immunity-as-a-service and that’s not possible when too many involuntary customers die because of the product.
Ron Unz penned a piece on that a few days ago for the USA.
They are supposed to do their work slowly but surely….
“The fall remains even though the ONS has removed 2020 from its five-year average figure because the first year of the pandemic was so extreme”.
Bullshit.. extreme!!! they’ve removed it because of the chart below..
And 2021 as well…
A bit like: there is no inflation ex food, energy and housing….
The week 1 ONS reported death figures are very unreliable as a comparator, because they are so dependant on bank holiday reporting differences between years depending on exactly when Christmas and New Year fall.
it’s slightly better to look at the occurrence data and occurrence estimates, see attached. However the most recent few weeks often get revised in later weeks.
So it looks like we are experiencing relatively high mortality about 10% above the 2015-2019 average albeit those years were years of low mortality.
But that said in terms of the impact of covid the illness the pandemic is long since over. Even before we allow for covid labelled deaths being deaths with a positive test for SARS-C0V-2 from a dodgy test, we can see that covid labelled deaths are at very low levels.
What we are seeing however as already mentioned are higher deaths bcause of the disastrous pandemic response and vaccine related deaths.
To put this in context the high mortality we are experiencing only takes us back to about 2010 mortality levels, but that doesn’t excuse these unnecessary deaths.
It also does look like we will have significantly less all cause deaths in January 2022 than we did in January 2021 looking at this chart.
And just to copy across my earlier analysis of my non covid vs covid chart above that I posted in today’s comments
Here is a chart I’ve produced based on death occurrence data between the beginning of 2020 and the first week in 2022, showing the split of all cause deaths between non-covid deaths and covid labelled deaths. Ignore the last 3 or 4 weeks on the chart as this can be distorted by inaccuracies in ONS estimating death occurrences from the death registration data. The ONS produce a similar chart (in figure 1 of their report) but it’s based on registration data so is affected by bank holidays.
Some things to note from this:
2020/2021 winter all cause mortality did not reach the level of all cause mortality in Spring 2020.
A very large number of the covid labelled deaths in Winter 2020/2021 were clearly deaths from other causes and other winter deaths mislabelled as covid.
The second covid wave bigger than the first wave idea is shown to be a myth caused by that mis-allocation.
From mid 2021 all cause deaths have been running above the 2015-2019 average. And the non-covid labelled deaths on their own have exceeded the 2015-2019 all cause average consistently over a long period. If you then factor in the misallocation of deaths from another cause, but with a positive covid test for SARS-C0V-2, to covid, then the increase in all cause deaths isn’t related to covid in any material way. This must relate to deaths from the lack of access to healthcare because of the disastrous pandemic response and adverse affects from the experimental vaccines.
While covid labelled deaths are really deaths with a positive test for SARS-C0v-2 from an unreliable test, note just how insignificant the covid labelled deaths currently are relative to non-covid labelled deaths and how low they are compared to Winter 2020/2021 covid labelled deaths.
There is a total anomalous rise in levels of non-covid deaths in weeks 13 to 17 of 2020 not seen anywhere else in the 2020-2022 data or in the long term average. At the peak, these deaths comprise about 75% of the covid deaths. Was there another disease almost as deadly as covid running in this period?
Edit: (yes – the fscking hardcore lockdown and the MSM fear-mongering) plus the effect mentioned below by Jo Starlin where the old and frail were put down to ‘ease their suffering’. I remember now – supposedly a 2 year supply of Midazolam used in 3 weeks.
Thinkng about it, most must be the Midazolam effect. There were suicides but not that many. Geez, this is chilling.
mortality about 10% above the 2015-2019 average albeit those years were years of low mortality.
Not just ‘low’, but the lowest ever – and a bottoming out that is historically entirely anomalous.
Hell of a pandemic we’re living through…
Or “Scamdemic” as it will be known.
How do we reconcile this with the One America insurance company’s recording of 40% more deaths than the pre-pandemic level?
My thoughts entirely.
The Vaccines?
There was one month where all cause deaths went absolutely haywire. One. April 2020. When our blessed Anychess threw tens of thousands of sick, frail people out into the street to die. Frankly January 2021 wasn’t particularly outrageous, in Scotland and Northern Ireland January 2018 was worse and the UK total was up from 73,806 to 81,766 in a population of well over 70 million, in the worst pandemic evah.
It’s all bollocks. All of it.
The journal Nature.com has just joined this ‘excess mortality’ fray, by emailing me a newsletter a few minutes ago, the subject was The pandemic’s true death toll: millions more than official counts
Nature appear to have a slightly different ‘spin’, compared to LS/DS realists, they aggregate & look way back, look wider at the whole world, (must get millions & millions of data points), then, start modelling and using algos & potentially, just perhaps slightly over-egging? Bless.
“The pandemic’s true death toll
On 1 November, the global death toll from the COVID-19 pandemic passed five million, official data suggested. It has now reached 5.5 million. But that figure is a significant underestimate. Records of excess mortality — a metric that compares all deaths recorded with those expected to occur — show that many more people have died in the pandemic.
Working out how many more is a complex research challenge. Some official data are flawed, and more than 100 countries do not collect reliable statistics on deaths at all. Efforts to correct the record use methods including satellite images of cemeteries, door-to-door surveys and machine-learning….computer models that extrapolate estimates from available data.”
Extrapolating AI/ML models to scary-up deaths? Isn’t that where we came in….
Maybe lots more on this subject I’m sure on their website, but I’m not going to click until they start to acknowledge actual extant ONS mortality declines & looming end-of-a-pandemic-era
I have chatted a few times to their “briefing” team, nice and responsive;
feel free to explain your view of Nature to “briefing@nature.com”
“…including satellite images of cemeteries, door-to-door surveys and machine-learning….computer models that extrapolate estimates from available data.”
The stench of utter desperation. Have they no shame?
The clue is they don’t use months they detail the “toll” of the pandemic by astrological sign.
Satellite images of cemeteries? That is creepy.
Do you think they measure the amount of smoke from crematoria as well?
Well I’m frankly puzzled.
Vaccination has been causing excess mortality in Scotland (Daily Skeptic 4/11/21). Public Health Data are said to show a 40% increase in excess deaths among under 65s. In England in the months July-October there were 20,823 excess deaths, all ages. In the USA deaths in the 18-49 age group have increased by more than 40% compared to 2018-19. For ages 50-84 mortality went up more than 27%, representing more than 470,000 excess deaths. E.g.
https://www.extremelyamerican.com/post/the-epoch-times-prime-age-mortality-up-40-majority-of-deaths-not-from-covid-19
I have applied my patented sophisticated BackOfEnvelope model to this issue. Globally, about 164,000 die each day from all causes. So 5.5 milllion deaths accounts for about 33 days ‘excess’ deaths in 666 days. After factoring out the likely 90% ‘with’ versus the 10% ‘from’, we end up with a ‘from’ covid excess of 4 days in 666 days. I suspect that falls within normal year to year variation.
“Covid deaths … were being offset by fewer deaths from traditional … killers”
Yeah. Oh sure. In the States, check into an ER with a broken leg and they’ll turn heaven and earth to be able to label you a “case”.
Three years ago, a Finance Director of a metroplex hospital stood right in front of me, a smile on his face, and told two blatant bald-faced lies. He knew I’d know they were, instantly. When I didn’t buy them, he said a swear word, spun and stomped down the hall. (I will never again darken the door of an HCA establishment, and yes, I know they do business in the UK, which is why I say it.)
Apparently US for-profit ‘healthcare’ institutions receive a large sum ($39,000 from memory?) from the government for every covid case they report – presumably to cover their extra ‘costs’. I suspect even the Mad Modellers could predict the outcome in this scenario.
So the evidence for the theory that the vaccines are a population extermination programme isn’t good.
However, the evidence that the coronavirus crisis has been a gross exaggeratio and that it has been promoted to enrich pharma companies and put in place measures for the totalitarian control of the population is as strong as ever.
Yes, but there’s something worse than a goal of population control.
How did the nation ever see fit to put a child like Boris into the premiership? (The exact same question should be asked of the USA regarding both Obama and Trump.)
I haven’t researched Boris’ election, and their might be extenuating circumstances for some voters. In the US, many voted for Obama solely because he’d be the first black in the Oval Office. I and many others voted for Trump because (while we did know the content of his character) we knew entirely too d*mned much about Hillary, and then about fluffball Biden and his openly-drug-using running mate who’d been Willie Brown’s mistress while she was DA of Alameda County.
(If you think Biden’s who-gives-a-damn about the Afghanis was weird, you obviously don’t know the vile things he said on the Senate floor 40 years ago about the Boat People refugees from South Vietnam.)
Johnson was voted in because the public were sick of parliament trying to overturn/block Brexit, and because his chief opponent was a shambling Marxist, whose deputy was incapable of putting her shoes on the correct feet (I am not making the last part up).
It was over in June 2020.
We held a party in June 2020 and we all agreed it was over. It was still in lockdown but all our friends turned up, and nobody was frightened. It was over.
But then the next month they introduced masks and Apps, and ramped up the psychological torture.
Some of those same friends won’t go out now.
Meanwhile in US: excess mortality was higher in 2021 than in 2020.
From what? Have you seen the VAERS reports on vaccine deaths and damage in the US?
Jeremy Corbyn opposes what’s going on, even if 90% of Labour doesn’t
https://twitter.com/beverleyturner/status/1483543968998739970
I currently think it’s a mixture of cockups, greed, corruption, opportunism and this *mass formation* seems to have taken on a life of its own, possibly more than the perpetrators intended.
There clearly is within this a pharma/WHO/Gates conspiracy, to the same extent as there was a pharma/WHO conspiracy in 2009. Then it was pretended that swine flu/H1N1 would kill lots of us. That scam was uncovered relatively easily.
There are those of us who think the whole bollox is quite literally diabolical.
Laugh if you like. It helps the. devil if you do.
Oh, look – I finally have my signature icon back.
…only took a year.
Express reporting that they have the numbers, just need to lick the last few envelopes to trigger a leadership contest.
Is Boris about to remove all restrictions as a last ditch attempt to save himself or, is that why he must go….?
The Mail is continuing to be the Cabal’s most consistent propaganda mouthpiece. Albeit, it also seems to be the most amateurish mouthpiece. I suppose, like us all, the Mail will have to practice before it becomes good in its new role as the poor-man’s Guardian.
The genocidally high numbers of adverse effects and deaths have scared the Cabal and made them hot under the collars. Thus, they’ve instructed their mouthpiece, the Mail, to mollify and distract the plebs by throwing disposable puppets, like Lockdown Ferguson, to the wolves.
The grubby Judas-shilling-grabbing Mail can’t be seen, though, to be relating these adverse effects and deaths to the gene serums. So, they’ve dug up a grade-inflated “scientist” from somewhere or other that has created the “nocebo effect”.
The nocebo effect seemingly diagnoses all the “vaccine” adverse effects that people suffered/suffers to be solely the products of their imaginations. Thus, according to the Mail, the almost two thousand people that have died in the UK due to adverse “vaccine” effects are not really dead, they are just lying in their coffins and urns imagining they are dead.
Now, the grubby Judas-shilling-grabbing Mail is totally with-it psychologically-wise. They know there’s a danger that a small percentage of their new readership of wokies and progressives might retain mental images of “side effects” and “lockdowns” from these two headlines, and associate them adversely with the plandemic.
We couldn’t have that. So, the clever Mail runs a main article above these two headlines about a cute 5-year-old called Layla. And, with a very serious bent, they tell their wokies and progressives that this child speaks for the nation.
This is actually the very same kind of psychological word-play and low-end behavioural trickery that a special needs teacher would use to manipulate a class of mental retards into learning and memorising basic modes of societal conduct.
One for you Tobes:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/columnists/2022/01/18/pilloried-lockdown-sceptic-now-clear-right-quite-things/
“cameron munro
3 HRS AGO
Remember Toby Young being the first I believe in the Telegraph to openly state his disagreement with lockdown.
He was swiftly removed and cancelled by the Telegraph and the twitterati.
Should he not now be rehabilitated? He was right all along and had the balls to say it.
https://truth11.com/2022/01/18/the-police-has-been-ordered-to-shut-down-all-vaccine-centres-in-uk/
I think this is Amanda de Buisseret speaking to the police officer, although there is no information on this link.
OT:
FWIW there is a petition to Parliament opposing mandatory covid ‘vaccination’ of NHS and regulated healthcare staff.
Do not make COVID vaccination a requirement for health and social care workers
The Government should not make vaccination against COVID a requirement for frontline health and social care workers. We believe this is contrary to basic human rights to decide whether to receive medical treatment based on personal choice and conscience.
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/600872
Looking at the ONS deaths data for last year, as you do, what i find interesting is that whenever flu and pneumonia (yes they are still around) are mentioned on the death certificate, it is the underlying cause only about 10-20% of the time. Compare that to whenever covid is mentioned, it is the underlying cause consistenly about 80-90% of the time. More evidence of reporting bias? Comorbidities only matter if its not covid it seems.
I believe there are financial incentives in the US for hospitals registering covid patients and deaths, which is complete lunacy in itself. I havent heard the same being mentioned here but it wouldnt surprise me.
According to my Alaskan friend Trump insisted that ALL hospitals treat convid patients to the tune of 33,000 US$. Therefore they labelled as many people as possible to get their hands on governments dosh.
Lies, damn lies and statistics. ONS figures should be taken with a pinch of salt. Figures for one week are subject to considerable distortions and the use of a 5 year average is highly misleading: expected death rates change with time due to population changes, primarily an increasing number of elderly that would give some 1.5% greater number of deaths each year, and mortality improvements of 1.5% to 2.5% working in the opposite direction.
I’ve just looked these up. According to the Institute of Actuaries Covid mortality experts, there were excess deaths for that period and, overall, there have been excess deaths throughout the pandemic, the figures closely following declared Covid deaths.
https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
“excess deaths” – the statistical equivalent of astrology.
The variation in mortality between different age groups is something that is often missed in these discussions
What we are seeing at the moment is high mortality in working age groups, but more normal mortality in the oldest age groups, perhaps in the latter case because the most vulnerable in those oldest age group have already died in recent years.
So when you look at age standardised mortality and overall mortality you completely miss what is happening in working age groups. Because most deaths are in the oldest age groups a large increase in working age mortality doesn’t really register in the numbers for all ages combined.
For example if you look at the age 45-64 age group (see attached chart) and remove the effect of population increases in this age group over time, you still see the purple 2021 line has been a real outlier (high mortality) since the middle of 2021. And this period coincides with a period where covid labelled deaths have been only a very minor element of all cause deaths. And that’s before you even make allowance for many of those covid labelled deaths being deaths from other causes.
Which leads us back to a conclusion that mortality has been running high in these working ages but it clearly isn’t down to covid the illness. So what can it be other than a lack of access to healthcare (and all the health related affects of disastrous lockdowns) or deaths from vaccine adverse reactions?
And here’s the same chart for the 15-44 age group. Same thing as the 45-64 age group. The second half of 2021 (purple line is 2021) has been a period of high mortality in this age group.
(should mention that 2015 and 2020 both had 53 recorded weeks in the data, but all the other years had 52 weeks, which is the reason for that kink in the right hand chart for the very last week. So a fair compare of accumulated mortality between years should stop at week 52 before that last kink)
But if we look at say the oldest age group that is bounded at both ends (the age 75-84 age group) we don’t see the same level of higher mortality. Note how the purple line for the second half of 2021 hardly stands out and the accumulated mortality in the right hand chart for all of 2021 isn’t abnormal unlike the 15-44 and 45-64 age groups.
With the correct chart this time for the 75-84 age group
And if we look at the 1-14 age group who mainly haven’t been experimentally vaccinated, we see that 2021 mortality has been very low based on historical rates as was 2020.
And the increase in road accident deaths, according to this weeks BBC “Panorama” progremme, from 2020 must have contributed to it.
Very nice graphs. Did you produce them for some other purpose, e.g. do you blog anywhere?
“the ONS has removed 2020 from its five-year average figure because the first year of the pandemic was so extreme.”
This is a ridiculous and observably false statement – but illustrates how the ‘short atypical baseline’ problem can impact on analysis to the detriment of reality.
Next release on Jan 25th I am expecting a big leap in deaths to take them well over 5 year average. Same happened after summer bank holiday. I bought shares in Dignity in December. I didn’t get a penny from the government over covid so this my way of profiting from the effects of outrageous regulations and mass inoculations with experimental chemicals.
I could be wrong and
I haven’t told my wife I’ve done this.