The most striking point from this week’s UKHSA Vaccine Surveillance report – with data for the four weeks ending January 9th – is the sharp decline in unadjusted vaccine effectiveness (calculated from raw data, so not adjusted for potential confounders such as risk factors and testing behaviour) against hospitalisation (see above). The decline is particularly sharp for under-50s, with 18-29 year-olds dropping to 38% (meaning the hospitalisation rate was 38% lower among the vaccinated (two or three doses) than the unvaccinated). The sharpness of the drops coincides with the age groups with the lowest third-dose coverage (see below), which suggests it may be a waning effect accelerated by Omicron and offset by boosters.
Another possible explanation is that it is an artefact of the high number of incidental hospital admissions in recent weeks, with more than half of Covid hospital admissions being treated primarily for something else. Given vaccines offer little to no protection (or worse) against infection, they will offer the same lack of protection against incidental hospital admission as Omicron spreads in hospitals or is found in those admitted for other reasons. The difference by age may arise because infection rates in those under 50 are currently much higher than in those over 50. In truth, it is likely to be a bit of both, but without data specifically on those being treated primarily for Covid it’s difficult to get to the bottom of which is making the biggest difference.
Unadjusted vaccine effectiveness against infection continued to decline in older age groups and in under-18s this week, presumably due to the waning of the third and second doses. It is negative in all over-18s, meaning the infection rate is higher in the vaccinated than the unvaccinated; in the 18-70s it is lower than minus-100%, meaning the vaccinated are more than twice as likely to have an infection. It did however rise slightly in the 18-50s this week, from a very low base. UKHSA continues to claim this extraordinary data is a result of confounders such as different risk factors and testing behaviour between vaccinated and unvaccinated. However, the agency still has not published any data on these confounders (e.g. testing behaviour and co-morbidities by vaccination status), despite being asked repeatedly, nor made any attempt to estimate adjusted vaccine effectiveness based on this data. If you would like to ask it to do this you can email its head Mary Ramsay here (Twitter here).
Unadjusted vaccine effectiveness against death continues to hold up at high levels on this data. This suggests the data is not highly confounded by risk factors, as the UKHSA claims, as then we would see low effectiveness against death too. Note that effectiveness against death did decline until November, suggesting the third doses have helped here.
One curiosity this week is that initially the UKHSA published a mistaken version with missing data. Although it’s not clear which data was missing, Daily Sceptic reader ‘Amanuensis’ (as he’s known in the comments) has analysed it on his Substack page and thinks it may have included data just for two doses with the data for third doses missing. If so, it shows 50% more deaths in the two-dose-only group compared to the unvaccinated, which would be alarming. However, one explanation is that boosters may not be given to those at highest risk of death owing to their health condition, which would concentrate deaths in the two-dose group, artificially both lowering the effectiveness of two doses and raising the effectiveness of three doses. This is all quite speculative, however.
It’s also worth noting here the latest data from Public Health Scotland, which for two-doses-only shows negative unadjusted vaccine effectiveness (i.e., higher rates in the vaccinated than the unvaccinated) not only for reported infections but also hospitalisations and deaths. The data is so remarkable that even Herald Scotland reported on it.
Double-jabbed Scots are now more likely to be admitted to hospital with Covid than the unvaccinated amid an increase in elderly people falling ill due to waning immunity.
It comes amid “weird” data showing that case rates have been lower in unvaccinated individuals than the single, double, or even triple-jabbed since Omicron became the dominant variant in Scotland.
The counterintuitive data from Public Health Scotland (PHS) contradicts previous pandemic trends which have consistently shown infection, hospitalisation and death rates to be highest among the unvaccinated. …
According to the latest PHS report, the Covid death rate has been consistently higher since December 4th in the double-jabbed compared to the unvaccinated – but much lower in the triple-jabbed. …
In the final week of December, the death rate was 7.06 per 100,000 among the double-jabbed compared to 4.79 per 100,000 in the unvaccinated, and 0.21 per 100,000 in the triple-vaccinated.
In the week ending January 7th, the hospitalisation rate was also twice as high in the double-jabbed compared to the unvaccinated – 130 admissions per 100,000 versus 59 per 100,000 – but fell to just 15 per 100,000 in the triple-jabbed.
The admissions data does not differentiate between patients in hospital ‘because of’ Covid and those who tested positive while being treated for other ailments, but PHS said the high hospitalisation rate for double-vaccinated individuals is being driven by increasing admissions among over-70s who are not yet boosted and whose immunity is waning.
It added: “In other age groups the rates remain lower for those with two doses compared to those with one dose or unvaccinated.
“This group of individuals aged 70-plus who have had two doses of vaccine but have not yet had a booster may include some very vulnerable individuals.”
It’s interesting that PHS is pinning it on waning immunity, a stratagem which may be intended to encourage booster take-up. Though they don’t mention it, as noted above, it’s possible that the non-boosted over-70s are a higher risk group and not being boosted for that reason.
Lastly, with all this immune-evasion, there is the question of how similar Omicron really is to other variants, and whether with its reduced virulence and changed clinical profile it ought really to be deemed a new strain rather than a new variant. A recent pre-print found natural immunity down to 56% effective against re-infection, which while no worse than the reported protection from boosters (and more resilient), is still lower than you’d expect for natural immunity. The SIREN study of healthcare workers also saw a leap in reported re-infections.
One to think about.
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I was just talking to a friend who’s employer will be requiring all employees to be fully vaccinated. The reason used to be so that they wouldn’t be a risk to others. Interestingly the narrative has now changed & they’re insisting on vaccination so the employee won’t be a risk to themselves. The net result is the same.
Interestingly this company employ a lot of BAME people in London. They’ve made an exception for people with ‘protected characteristics’, so ethnic minorities & LBGTQ_____ can escape.
Sounds like a recipe for lawsuits.
Because LBGTQ won’t be a risk to themselves unvaccinated? Or because they will be a risk to themselves but that’s not the employer’s business? Getting complicated isn’t it. You must have the jab unless you can provide a valid BLM certificate or equivalent token of woke, in which case, different rules apply. Unless this policy causes you offence. In which case, you must be vaxxed. Unless in being vaxxed that could be construed as a suggestion that you weren’t offended, when under the current guidelines you really ought to have been offended. In which case, wait, what was the question again. Covid, that’s right. You must take the knee to prevent transmission, unless you were previously a Trump supporter, in which case, all bets are off.
But what if you catch climate change?
Oh cool – I’m a tranny. Exemptions. Fab. I only came out because I got frightened with the 10 months out of work because covid and turned out work was cool with it. It doesn’t make a lot of difference to them as I’m not a tranny at work. Weird hair is all.
But do blame me for all your problems if it makes you feel better. I’m not doing masks or nonsense. Nobody seems to mind that. Ignore that it’s possible to be a tranny and have similar views to yourself.
It’s important for you to turn yourself against sub-groups. It reduces your numbers.
I wonder if down voters had a comfortable lockdown and this is political. Or is it just the phantom down voter
Joe Biden’s Suicidal Energy Bill Threatens to Destroy America’s Power Grid
https://stopthesethings.com/2022/01/14/joe-bidens-suicidal-energy-bill-threatens-to-destroy-americas-power-grid/
by stopthesethings
Please come and join our friendly peaceful events.
Saturday 15th January 5pm
Silent lighted walk behind one simple sign
“No More Lockdown”
Bring torches, candles and other lights
Meet Corner of Castle Hill & High St,
Windsor SL4 1PQ
Stand in the Park Sundays 10am make friends, ignore the madness & keep sane
Wokingham Howard Palmer Gardens Cockpit Path car park Sturges Rd RG40 2HD
Henley Mills Meadows (at the bandstand) Henley-on-Thames RG9 1DS
Telegram Group
http://t.me/astandintheparkbracknell
Siren study volunteers are all triple jabbed in my hospital – with most getting boosted in sept / Oct time (6 months post initial doses).
if booster wanes to 35% by 10 weeks, you’ll see huge reinfection rates in this group now.
I am seeing jabbed colleagues with their first or second infections now whilst us unjabbed with natural immunity seem to be sailing through (we have low participation in lateral flow testing too though).
Bring on April and my sacking “to reduce absence” though
Here’s a better one…
Im still waiting to hear how injections with a proven ARR efficacy of ZERO, can magically gain efficacies of 60-70%.
Let me get this straight. Are they contemplating making tens of thousands of health workers permanently absent to reduce absence? Even though the “unvaccinated” are less likely to be infected? And are likely to have natural immunity anyway (especially if they work in a hospital)? And even though illness actually from “covid” is likely to be way down by April?
What an extraordinary state of affairs if so.
Yes it certainly is an extraordinary state of affairs, but that’s what you get with partygoers running the show.
Oh yes.
covid1984 has never been so strong…
If you have no symptoms then you aren’t ill or infectious. Taking a test is a mug’s game unless you are looking far a week off work. Covid is a skiver’s charter.
Yes
We have several of those colleagues who used the app so much that they had to isolate multiple times… all jabbed of course.
Now there’s the ones whose children test positive one at a time (asymptomatically) so they get to be off work as a household contact but can still leave the house to shop etc as jabbed.
It is a total mess and an absolute farce… but that’s what you get when you pretend a cold is Ebola
Ebola is coming or is it smallpox. Bill hasn’t decided just yet.
Thank you Will once again for breaking down another damning and surreal weekly report.
Further evidence of the deeply entrenched and mutually incompatible realities that now exist in society.
This rift in perception is fascinating to me and a friend and I are preparing to make a film about it. If any regular contributors or commenters would like to be involved or contribute, please DM me.
Everyone was on a tight convoy of buses ..(different buses), but it used to be at least the buses were going in the same spacetime direction and so maybe we thought it was one giant bus. suddenly a fork in the road comes up.. a load of buses turn off..’what the hell’..
Can we put this to bed? Good study from Cape Town today shows “even” unvaccinated have mild disease from Omicron.
I really appreciate the fact that this time with the UKHSA figures there is no disclaimer as has been usual practise here at DS. Thanks Will. Thanks DS.
The experimental jabs don’t work.
Viruses have a natural trajectory of their own with little deviation from interventions.
The jabs briefly increase anti-bodies to the spike protein but NOT to other parts of the virus.
Soon after being jabbed people’s immune systems are compromised and they are more susceptible to viruses for a couple of weeks.
Every country that started a jab program had a sharp increase in Covid, injuries and deaths that coincided with the program.
Studies have shown negative effectiveness of those jabbed compared to the unjabbed.
Long term, due to Original Antigenic Sin, Antibody Dependent Enhancement, Vaccine Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome etc. plus all the other possible side effects from the experimental jab people will be potentially more ill from the jab than they would be from Covid.
There are rogue batches of the jabs which are causing the most harm. People are playing Russian roulette with their lives depending on which batch they are jabbed with of which they have no choice.
Around the world the number of reports of injuries and death from the jabs has been horrendous.
Many studies show natural immunity is better than jab induced immunity.
Pathologists have done autopsies where 90% of the people died directly from internal injuries caused by the jabs.
We really need to challenge the notion that these experimental jabs are helping to curb hospitalisations and death from Covid even in the vulnerable.
Anyone having a jab is not paying attention.
On a more positive note, the jabs are very efficacious with regards to foreign holidays.
The vast majority of people I know who have had the jabs are only doing it for foreign holidays and to visit relatives abroad.
They are not worried about a novel virus which is no worse in some cases to flu.
“no worse in some cases to flu”
Most cases
They are apparently not worried about the Russian roulette vaccines either. Brain-dead is being too kind.
That’s it then. We need everyone to have a fourth jab.
Get double boosted and all your problems will be over.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/1UDHHN4j39P1/
Dr Byram Bridle, Viral Immunologist and Associate Professor, University Of Guelph speaking on the vaccines, cancer, AE surveillance, blood clots…
Robert Malone’s doctor had her license to practice medicine suspended
This is why so many people have died: physicians realize that they are not allowed to challenge the narrative.
When the public sees no physicians speaking out against the lunacy of the vaccines and masking, they believe it more and more.
That’s why we remain stuck in the mass formation. The most credible people to convey the message are the doctors and they have been silenced
Dr Nass has also been ordered to undergo a neurocognitive assessment (This happened to the Canadian doctor who was trying to publicise the large number of stillbirths, Dr Mel Bruchet who had a diagnosis of dementia and was detained in a mental institution for a month)
https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/robert-malones-doctor-had-her-license
https://anthraxvaccine.blogspot.com/2022/01/my-side-of-story-and-constitutional_13.html
Bloody hell.
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/turning-of-the-tide-no-just-a-lull-in-the-storm/
MAINSTREAM media would have us believe that Britain is on the brink of ‘emerging’ from the pandemic, and that living with Covid-19, as we do with colds and flu, is an imminent reality.
What the State tannoy system is actually saying is that the public are now in a period of adjustment during which they are being encouraged not to live with Covid, but with the more authoritarian rule-base of the post-Covid era, hidden all along within the Trojan horse virus itself. The narrative is not crumbling, simply taking a break for tea and scones.
“Pan B”.
I wish we could. I fear TCW are right though, and that these crooks have no intention of stopping the human rights abuses or they would have done so by now – they’ve had plenty of chances. And if there is a global financial collapse, I suppose that will be a chance for even more abuses.
Oh yes, very hard times ahead and with the threat of war to boot.
In this most recent weekly surveillance report there’s the usual table (first 2 left-hand columns of data in table 12 on p. 43) that gives positive cases per 100k of 2-dose vaxxed people compared to cases per 100k unvaxxed. And the the cases are again higher among all two-dosed vaxxed groups apart from under-18s, as Will points out. But does the UKHSE report anywhere also contain the info necessary to work out the equivalent data by age group for the tripled-vaxxed/boosted that could be placed alongside these two columns? I’ve scanned through the whole thing but couldn’t see it – though I’m not statistically minded and may have missed the obvious.
Whats going on?
It was always snake oil is what’s going on!
Full blooming stop
If i were trying to hide something I’d also produce charts like these above.
Each chart has different age brackets and dissimilar colour schemes for the age brackets.
making it difficult to evaluate the results.
ONS has been doing this since 1st Jan 2020
https://arkmedic.substack.com/p/the-curious-case-of-the-miscalculated
What is the rate of miscarriage in pregnant women receiving a vaccine (more accurately a gene therapy vaccine or GTV) against COVID-19, and is it any higher than for women not receiving a vaccine
Looking at all cause hospitalisations would be the important metric, rather than hospitalisations with a positive test for SARS-CoV-2. But we don’t have that data.
But the article makes a good point that if we do look at emergency care admissions with a positive test, then the trend does look very bad for the vaccinated.
Here I’ve plotted the number of emergency care admissions in the vaccinated (any dose) vs the unvaccinated based on the UKHSA figures.
I’ve shown the same chart twice with vaccinated and unvaccinated as the top bar respectively in the top and bottom chart. But I’ve changed the label on the lower chart to show the numbers rather than percentages. But otherwise the same chart.
You can see how the vaccinated have been driving up positive emergency care admissions disproportionately. The increase in the unvaccinated has been very modest in contrast.
And here is a chart this time of numbers of English +ve test patients in hospital beds and +ve test patients in mechanical ventilation beds, not split by vaccination status from the NHS data this time.
The top and bottom charts plot the exact same data. All I’ve done on the bottom chart is to plot the mechanical ventilation beds on the right hand axis, the axis chosen so as to line up the total hospital bed line with the mechanical ventilation line.
You can see the extraordinary divergence that happens at the end due to the mildness of omicron. As hospital positives go up there is no increase in mechanical ventilation bed positives, which are now falling it appears.
Perhaps the best chart (including the one below, as well) I have seen for clarity and presentation for the last 2 years!
If you get Covid – please die!
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