The Danish Government report released on January 3rd 2022 states:
Until Sunday December 19th 2021 nearly all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples were tested with variant PCR to identify Omicron cases. As of Monday December 20th 2021 only a representative sample of the positive SARS-CoV-2 samples are being tested with variant PCR at TCDK, hence, the number of identified Omicron cases does not represent the total number of Omicron cases in Denmark. In the Clinical Microbiological Departments, the PCR samples are from hospitalised patients prioritised to be variant PCR tested.
The report gives a very conservative estimate of the cumulative number of omicron cases by January 2nd, which is 55,673, because the Danish authorities stopped sequencing all COVID-19 positive cases on December 20th. Since then, as stated above, only a daily random sample has been sequenced to see the proportion of Omicron cases in the population. When I use this daily proportion starting from December 20th and multiply it by the daily number of all SARS-CoV-2 positive test results and subtract the number of the daily established Omicron cases I can get a reliable estimate of the true number of cumulative Omicron cases on January 2nd, which is 143,237. From December 29th onwards until January 2nd I assumed that 90% of COVID-19 diagnoses were the Omicron variant.
The median length of time from COVID-19 diagnosis to hospitalisation and death is about six and 13 days respectively. Until Dec 19th all COVID-19 PCR diagnoses were sequenced and the cumulative number of Omicron cases can be summed since November 21st. On December 20th the number of Omicron cases can be calculated by multiplying total number of COVID-19 cases by the pro-portion of Omicron cases in the representative sample. By December 20th, i.e., 13 days prior to January 2nd, the cumulative number of omicron cases was 43,200. As median means that 50% of deaths have accumulated by January the 2nd among the 43,200 I further assume that in this 43,200 fixed cohort another 18 will die after January the 2nd.
Thus I can calculate an estimate Omicron case fatality rate (CFR) in this fixed cohort, which is 36/43,200 = 0.08%, which corresponds roughly to that of seasonal flu’s mortality rate. When further I assume that only half of the true COVID-19 infections are diagnosed, which is a reasonable assumption for many reasons, I get an Omicron infection fatality rate (IFR) of 0.04 % indicating very low lethality. My calculations are conservative.
Since January 2nd until January the 11th there have been an additional 140,270 infections, assuming conservatively that 90% of new cases are Omicron variant cases. Fewer people are classified into the severe category of whom 44 (three fewer than on January the 2nd) were on ventilators as of today. The expected number of additional deaths among the accumulated Omicron cases 289,507 by January the 11th is 214. It is interesting to note that less than five of ICU patients, i.e., one in twenty in Denmark on January the 2nd, were Omicron patients.
It is possible that my CFR and IFR estimates are affected by the fact that Omicron cases have been especially prevalent among younger people. However, a recent Danish paper indicates that boosted patients, i.e., thrice vaccinated individuals, prevent secondary Omicron transmission effectively. Older age groups in Denmark are well protected with booster shots, which also protect them against severe disease. Thus, the observed low Omicron mortality in Denmark is attributable to very likely lower pathogenicity of Omicron variant itself and favourable effects of mass vaccination.
We will get an accurate final CFR estimates from Denmark very soon as the Omicron status is known for all hospitalised patients. Already by now we can with great confidence deduce that the Omicron variant is at least 16 times less lethal in a highly vaccinated population than the SARS-COV-2 variant circulating in spring 2020 in Europe and the world.
The most important issue related to very fast spreading Omicron is how it affects the labour force in short term. In South Africa, the Omicron wave peaked rapidly and lasted around two months.
Mikko Paunio is an adjunct professor in epidemiology at the University of Helsinki, Department of Public Health, and an advisor to the Finnish Government.
Stop Press: The Danish Government has just announced the easing of restrictions at the end of this week, having concluded that Omicron is a lot milder than previous variants.
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OK, Watson and Abrahamovitch, what have you personally done since February 2020 to try to fight the fear-mongering and hysteria that allows the regime to get away with these impositions?
With a few very honourable exceptions, industry and business have done nothing to resist, but plenty of whining about getting taxpayer subsidies for themselves. If you’re among the aforementioned noble exceptions, fine, but otherwise, go put some money and influence behind campaigns resisting the fearmongering, and have some words in politicians’ ears about how you’ll support their rivals if they don’t back off.
Luke Johnson, Hugh Osmond and to an extent Tim Martin. Can’t think of anyone else, though I expect there are a few more, but not many.
Grind will be Ground Down. Sorry.
Agreed…I said this last year….last year for goodness sake…… I’m doing my bit, if you want me in your pub, do yours. Do what the Co-Op did, if they make masks mandatory in pubs don’t enforce it…..if they want QR codes, don’t enforce it, same with vax pass…put your heads on the block like the rest of us and stand up and fight. If you don’t you’re going out of business anyway…I will never use a ‘pass’ of any kind for a pint, it’s cheaper to go to the supermarket, and I can drink in my jammies!
Stories about pubs closing are sad indication of the symptoms but not the cause. This site needs to step up on the causes and stop pretending it’s some bumbling idiots being overly cautious. What is happening is deliberate and evil. They push until they hit protest, then push some more stupid rules, then stop for a while and now are pushing again. Wake up. This is disproportionate bullshit. Enough. Take action yourselves, no white-knight is coming to help, do not comply with any of it, no masks, no showing your jab status if you’ve been jabbed, no taking tests to get into places. Enough. Do not consent to this system of coercive control. Look where we’ve come from to where we are now. And for what? Is it proportionate? No, it’s not. It’s got to stop, now! Toby you’ve done a great job in setting this site up but events risk overwhelming the original purpose.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fL00v2YjWKI
As Boris says the jabs don’t stop you catching it and don’t stop you spreading it.
If a venue requires testing then EVERYONE needs to be tested the vaxpass is pointless.
Wonder why no journalist has not asked him this obvious question?
I would love to believe this but unfortunately it is not. Every country is moving in lockstep and the evil is in the smartphone. Show me a society that bans QR codes and I will believe this is a cock-up, until then it is evil.
I work as a family photographer for Americans on vacation. As you can imagine with restrictions on travel, lollipop rules and things to do when in London and enjoy time with loved ones (especially when they can go to Florida) has cut my earnings off dramatically.
Even the coffee shops, bars and restaurants families would regularly visit aren’t the same anymore. The staff have changed, nobody knows each other by name. Funny, as when Brexit began my trade actually went up, it was the coof that killed 90% of the foot-flow in Westminster and 80% around Tower Bridge.
Good time to buy commercial real estate I guess if you know what I mean. Especially when interest rates are so low. It times nicely with excessive money printing and higher ups access to free/cheap money.
PS. The Stafford Hotel, Claridges, The Connaught and The Ritz will be fine as they don’t need to make money to stay open. They are trophy assets for Middle Eastern Investment vehicles on behalf of the Royal families.
Middle Eastern and Oriental. The Yuan buys you a lot these days, and with containers coming into the UK full and going back empty, on what else are they going to spend all the money we send them? Not goods and services, that’s for sure.
It isn’t only pubs.
Don’t forget us folks, training companies who deliver face to face training.
Zoom sessions are no substitute for personal interaction. As the lead in training the defence industry in the management of large, complex project lifecycles we haven’t worked since February 2020. This evil policy has killed our business that took 20 years to build up.
When we’re gone, we’re gone, and we’ll take our wisdom and experience with us.
And by the way, WFH is a con. Used in an isolated and exceptional manner it can work, but must not become the norm, a skiver’s charter.
One of the many things the technocrats want to do is to prevent you from meeting other people in order to stop you plotting against them and their fascist schemes, technocracy is in effect digital slavery.
The police and crimes bill will prevent you from doing this in protests (effectively making them illegal – except for global warming protests of course). The online harms bill will prevent ‘virtual’ meetings in sites such as this, and killing the hospitality industry will prevent you from meeting like minded people down the pub. It is all part of the plan.
Later on they will introduce stringent travel restrictions (again in the name of preventing man made global warming) which will prevent you travelling more than a few miles from your designated place of residence and further restrict the possibility of human contact and spread of information contrary to the agenda.
Sir Kneel Starmer is a fully paid up member of the technocrats club and therefore probably public enemy #1, Bojo isn’t quite sure what he is except a tool for others to easily manipulate (or perhaps just a tool).
The net tightens but still the fish swim round in circles.
Are there any pub calendars for 2022 where they show everyone inside standing up wearing face masks, and everyone seated not wearing a face mask, in the interest of preventing the spread of a highly contagious virus during a pandemic?
https://www.rosecalendars.co.uk/olde-worlde-inns-calendar
Didn’t most office work outside London get farmed out to out of town office parks? Do shop workers not eat lunch or can they not afford to eat out?
All going as planned, then?