New daily infections are already falling in London, data suggests. The ZOE Covid Symptom Study shows infections falling in the capital since December 27th (see above), a trend that appears to be confirmed by the latest Government reported infection data, where positive tests by specimen date have not been topped since December 21st (see below).
While there will be some testing artefact in the Government data, the corroboration of the apparent peak and decline by the ZOE study (which uses modelled data based on self-reported symptoms) suggests the trend is real.
The infection peak in England last winter occurred around December 26th, according to antibody-based analysis by Imperial College London. If it happens around the same time this winter then it may give support to the notion that it is the festivities of the Christmas season themselves that drive the winter peak to a seasonal herd immunity threshold, triggering a sustained fall throughout the rest of the winter, despite the weather typically becoming colder in January and February.
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