November’s Age-Standardised Mortality Rate Was 8% Higher Than the Five-Year Average

The ONS announced last week that there were 48,180 deaths registered in England in November, which is almost 5,000 more than in October, and 15.6% more than the five-year average.

November therefore saw a non-trivial rise in deaths. Interestingly, much of the increase seems to be accounted for by non-Covid causes. A comparison between last month’s breakdown by leading cause of death, and this month’s breakdown, is shown in the figure below.

The comparison is confusing because, for some reason, the ONS decided to reverse the colour scheme between the two reports. On the left-hand chart dark blue corresponds to the month itself (October), whereas on the right-hand chart it corresponds to the five-year average.

In any case, if you look carefully, you will see that the age-standardised mortality rates for all the leading causes of death (including Covid) rose from October to November. For example, the age-standardised mortality rate from Dementia and Alzheimer’s disease increased by more than 20% from 102 to 122 per 100,000.

Note: the charts should be interpreted with caution, as determining cause of death is not always straightforward.

November’s overall age-standardised mortality rate was 7.7% higher than the five-year average. This is a greater disparity than last month, when the two figures were approximately equal. Though it is less than that seen in September, when the age-standardised mortality rate was 11.2% higher than the five-year average.

Here’s my updated chart of excess mortality in England since January of 2020. Notice that November’s bump was smaller than September’s.

In terms of cumulative mortality to date, 2021 is now looking slightly worse than 2018. However, it is not yet as bad as 2015. In other words, the first eleven months of 2015 – a year with no pandemic – were more deadly than the first eleven months of 2021. And of course, 2021 is still looking better than last year.

November’s non-Covid excess mortality may reflect the delayed impact of lockdown. However, the overall figure of 7.7% indicates that mortality isn’t that much higher than you’d expect this time of year.