The ONS announced last week that there were 48,180 deaths registered in England in November, which is almost 5,000 more than in October, and 15.6% more than the five-year average.
November therefore saw a non-trivial rise in deaths. Interestingly, much of the increase seems to be accounted for by non-Covid causes. A comparison between last month’s breakdown by leading cause of death, and this month’s breakdown, is shown in the figure below.
The comparison is confusing because, for some reason, the ONS decided to reverse the colour scheme between the two reports. On the left-hand chart dark blue corresponds to the month itself (October), whereas on the right-hand chart it corresponds to the five-year average.
In any case, if you look carefully, you will see that the age-standardised mortality rates for all the leading causes of death (including Covid) rose from October to November. For example, the age-standardised mortality rate from Dementia and Alzheimer’s disease increased by more than 20% from 102 to 122 per 100,000.
Note: the charts should be interpreted with caution, as determining cause of death is not always straightforward.
November’s overall age-standardised mortality rate was 7.7% higher than the five-year average. This is a greater disparity than last month, when the two figures were approximately equal. Though it is less than that seen in September, when the age-standardised mortality rate was 11.2% higher than the five-year average.
Here’s my updated chart of excess mortality in England since January of 2020. Notice that November’s bump was smaller than September’s.
In terms of cumulative mortality to date, 2021 is now looking slightly worse than 2018. However, it is not yet as bad as 2015. In other words, the first eleven months of 2015 – a year with no pandemic – were more deadly than the first eleven months of 2021. And of course, 2021 is still looking better than last year.
November’s non-Covid excess mortality may reflect the delayed impact of lockdown. However, the overall figure of 7.7% indicates that mortality isn’t that much higher than you’d expect this time of year.
To join in with the discussion please make a donation to The Daily Sceptic.
Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.
I’m looking forward to the follow up, The Prime Minister and the Entire Cabinet Impaled on Spikes on Westminster Bridge – The Musical
When do the tickets go on sale?
Just as soon as I’ve finished sharpening these wooden sticks
How about Kim Jong Johnson vs Frank Bruno?
A co-(vid)production with Andrew Lloyd Whassisname? Lyrics by Tim Starchysubstance.
Maybe a tadge off topic, but I had the most amusing, and also the most telling, exchange with the owner of a pub about a scotch egg. Trying to get a pint without ordering a three course meal (back in the day when Covid could only attack you if you hadn’t ordered food) I tried to defuse the situation by mentioning that perhaps I could have a nice scotch egg with my pint. The landlady then went on a full five minute tirade about how a scotch egg was definitely not a ‘substantial meal’. I actually learnt a lot about people from that one 5 minute exchange. More than I had in my previous 49 years. That actually set me up for the rest of the irrational nonsense that followed. The power of a scotch egg!
Propaganda works. Acceptance is much easier than thinking.
Good theatre/cinema is very effective propaganda. Bravo to all those involved; and let there be more of it.
P.S. I do like the sound of your musical. Were you thinking of a sort of Life of Brian crucifixion scene, or did you have something like Les Mis in mind? I rather fancy a new version, called The Miserables. It would start with misery and end with a sort of V for Vendetta triumph.
Also a tad OT, but I watched Have I got a Bit More News for You last night. This was the extended version of the most recent episode, so current then. Not historic.
All the participants were STILL sitting in between perspex screens. I thought Covid had been declared to be over.
Does BBC wish it wasn’t? Is it still trying to perpetuate the fear among its audience members?
I was in Durham yesterday, they have a lot of chinks at the uni there. 90% of them at least were wandering around in face nappies. This was not happening before the pandemic.
And they complain when we comment that they all look alike!
Many Asian I suspect!
Plenty of small theatres in Scotland that need some trade, and a populace that needs a kick up their fundament. Hopefully the Scotch egg will travel that far….
One hopes that the witty lyrics are more discernible than those that I hear in BBC radio shows that include ‘comic songs’. These are invariably performed by those whose talents don’t include a good voice or clear enunciation, which makes the whole enterprise rather pointless.
Please let us know when future performances are taking place!