87270
  • Log in
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Forum
  • Donate
  • Newsletter
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result

October’s Age-Standardised Mortality Rate Was Equal to the Five-Year Average

by Noah Carl
29 November 2021 10:38 AM
October’s Age-Standardised Mortality Rate Was Equal to the Five-Year Average

The ONS announced last week that there were 43,435 deaths registered in England in October, which is about 1,000 less than in September, and 7.1% more than the five-year average.

This is a marked change from last month, when total deaths were 19.4% above the five-year average. Looking at the breakdown by leading cause of death, it is also quite different from September’s:

Last month, several non-Covid causes of death were above their five-year averages, notably dementia and Alzheimer’s, as well as ischemic heart disease. In October, by contrast, all non-Covid causes other than “Symptoms signs and ill-defined conditions” are below their five-year averages.

This suggests that my concerns about the delayed impact of lockdown on mortality may have been misplaced. In other words: last month’s elevated rates of death from non-Covid causes may have been a blip, rather than the start of trend toward rising mortality.

October’s overall age-standardised mortality rate was approximately equal to the five-year average – 0.1% lower, in fact. Again, this is a marked change from last month, when the age-standardised mortality rate was 11.2% higher than the five-year average.

Since age-adjusted excess mortality is the best gauge of how mortality is changing, the fact that October’s value is about equal to the five-year average indicates that any impact of lockdown on mortality must be relatively small. Here’s my updated chart of excess mortality in England since January of 2020:

Various newspapers have reported a large excess of non-Covid deaths in England over the past four months. However, these claims appear to be based on absolute excess deaths, rather than age-adjusted excess mortality.

In October, there were more than 2,000 non-Covid deaths in excess of the five-year average. Yet as I already mentioned, age-adjusted excess mortality was approximately zero – and that includes the Covid deaths. This means that the most of the ‘excess’ non-Covid deaths we’ve seen recently are due to population ageing over the last two years.

All in all, October’s figures are more encouraging than September’s, giving no indication that mortality is unusually high. Let’s just hope it stays that way.

Tags: Age-adjusted mortalityExcess deathsONS

Donate

We depend on your donations to keep this site going. Please give what you can.

Donate Today

Comment on this Article

You’ll need to set up an account to comment if you don’t already have one. We ask for a minimum donation of £5 if you'd like to make a comment or post in our Forums.

Sign Up
Previous Post

Omicron Variant Will Unleash Chaos in Schools as Hated ‘Bubbles’ Threaten to Return

Next Post

Switzerland Votes Two to One in Favour of Keeping Vaccine Passports

Subscribe
Login
Notify of
Please log in to comment

Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.

41 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

NEWSLETTER

To view today's newsletter click here

To receive our latest news in the form of a daily email, enter your details here:

DONATE

LISTED ARTICLES

  • Most Read
  • Most Commented
  • Editors Picks
Does the Oxford Study on Post-Vaccine Myocarditis Underestimate the Risk?

Serious Heart Inflammation 44 Times Higher After Covid Vaccination, Nature Study Finds

27 June 2022
by Will Jones
EU Renews Vaccine Passport Scheme Despite Overwhelmingly Negative Public Feedback

EU Renews Vaccine Passport Scheme Despite Overwhelmingly Negative Public Feedback

26 June 2022
by Will Jones
News Round-Up

News Round-Up

27 June 2022
by Will Jones
Climate Scientist Says Humans Cause Less Than 0.05°C of Global Warming and Warns of “Anarchy” From “Delusional” Net Zero Policies

Climate Scientist Says Humans Cause Less Than 0.05°C of Global Warming and Warns of “Anarchy” From “Delusional” Net Zero Policies

24 June 2022
by Chris Morrison
New Analysis: Covid’s Infection Fatality Rate Now Same as Seasonal Flu

New Analysis: Covid’s Infection Fatality Rate Now Same as Seasonal Flu

26 June 2022
by Toby Young
Student Awarded £60,000 of Taxpayers’ Money to Research Whether Puppets are Racist

Student Awarded £60,000 of Taxpayers’ Money to Research Whether Puppets are Racist

15
News Round-Up

News Round-Up

14
BBC Staff Told there are More than 150 Genders and Urged to Develop ‘Trans Brand’

BBC Staff Told there are More than 150 Genders and Urged to Develop ‘Trans Brand’

11
EU Renews Vaccine Passport Scheme Despite Overwhelmingly Negative Public Feedback

EU Renews Vaccine Passport Scheme Despite Overwhelmingly Negative Public Feedback

16
New Analysis: Covid’s Infection Fatality Rate Now Same as Seasonal Flu

New Analysis: Covid’s Infection Fatality Rate Now Same as Seasonal Flu

10
Does the Oxford Study on Post-Vaccine Myocarditis Underestimate the Risk?

Serious Heart Inflammation 44 Times Higher After Covid Vaccination, Nature Study Finds

27 June 2022
by Will Jones
Why Healthcare Settings Should Drop Their Mask Requirements

Masks are Not Protective, Says Health & Safety Executive

24 June 2022
by Niall McCrae
Daily Sceptic ‘Fact Checked’ Over Claim That CO2 Increase Lags Behind Global Warming So Cannot Cause It – But That is What the Data Show

Daily Sceptic ‘Fact Checked’ Over Claim That CO2 Increase Lags Behind Global Warming So Cannot Cause It – But That is What the Data Show

23 June 2022
by Chris Morrison
We Should Welcome the Lab Leak Theory, Argues Biologist

Did SARS-CoV-2 Originate in Wuhan in 2019 or Earlier Elsewhere?

23 June 2022
by John Collis
U.S. Medicines Regulator to Add Warning to Pfizer and Moderna Vaccines Over Link to Heart Inflammation

Covid Vaccines More Likely to Put You in Hospital Than Keep You Out, BMJ Editor’s Analysis of Pfizer and Moderna Trial Data Finds

22 June 2022
by Will Jones

SOCIAL LINKS

Free Speech Union
The Daily Sceptic
  • Home
  • About us
  • Donate
  • Privacy Policy

Facebook

Twitter

Instagram

RSS

Subscribe to our newsletter

© 2022 Skeptics Ltd.

No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Forum
  • Donate
  • Newsletter

© 2022 Daily Sceptic.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Create New Account!

Please note: To be able to comment on our articles you'll need to be a registered donor

Already have an account?
Please click here to login Log In

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
wpDiscuz
You are going to send email to

Move Comment