The alarmist claims of Neil Ferguson and his modelling team at Imperial College have fuelled vaccine scepticism and led to needless lockdowns being imposed all over Europe, according to several leading scientists. The Telegraph‘s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has more.
The Covid modellers at Imperial College have begun to back down. About time too. Over the past few weeks, they have made extreme claims about the omicron variant that cannot be fully justified by fundamental science, let alone by clinical observation.
Academic etiquette restrains direct criticism, but immunologists say privately that Professor Neil Ferguson and his team breached a cardinal rule by inferring rates of hospitalisation, severe disease, and death from waning antibodies, and by extrapolating from infections that break through the first line of vaccine defence.
The rest are entitled to question whether they can legitimately do this. And we may certainly question whether they should be putting out terrifying claims of up to 5,000 deaths a day based on antibody counts.
“It is bad science and I think they’re being irresponsible. They have a duty to reflect the true risks but this is just headline grabbing,” said Dr Clive Dix, former chairman of the UK Vaccine Task Force.
Needless to say, these headlines have spread as fast as omicron itself. Britain is the Covid laboratory of the developed world, and what Imperial says right now has global resonance. Its dire warnings are contributing to some European countries imposing full or partial Christmas lockdowns.
Governments are so alarmed by the possibility that healthcare systems might collapse under pressure that they have neglected the opposite risk – and much more probable outcome – that omicron will largely bounce off a population where almost everybody has cell immunity from vaccines or past infection, and in the case of Britain where most vulnerable people have been triple jabbed for good measure.
“To talk of 5,000 deaths a day is a very high number. It is risky to push apocalyptic scenarios that are highly unlikely to happen,” said Professor Francois Balloux, Director of the UCL Genetics Institute.
“What I am more worried about is a loss of trust in governments and public institutions for crying wolf. The mood is changing everywhere.”
Worth reading in full.
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Outside of the Johnson dictatorship, does anyone take any notice of this moron’s so-called predictions?
Apparently Fauci based his ‘science’ on Fergusons! All roads lead back to Billy Gates.
Notice his concern is “a loss of trust in governments and institutions”.
Not the damage done to economies and society and peoples psyche and their ability to think clearly and sensibly.
The recovery from this will take decades.
MSM is trying to make fun of people wanting to protect themselves with cheap and proven drugs. Ivermectin has been FDA approved for human use since 1996. It also beats Pfizer’s new wonder drug hands down, and costs next to nothing. Ivermectin doesn’t make tons of money. So they know the Covid shot is on its final gasp, so they take it add something different to it, rebrand under another name and charge 20 times what they would for ivermectin. I cannot wrap my head around this nonsense. When I explain this to my relatives they label me as crazy and ask me if I know better than science. I don’t make up these information out of my ass. All this information is true and proven. For some people it is near impossible for them to wake up. They are comfortable in their clown world life. If you want to get Ivermectin you can visit https://ivmpharmacy.com
All the spleen directed at Ferguson is beside the point. No-one has to listen to his crew, and the record is well known.
He is a tool (in more than one sense).
Sajid Javid’s latest vaccine update is well worth reading.
What a dreadful piece of fiction from the Jabbit.
In the States there are multiple successful court actions against vaccine mandates and other measures. Where are these court cases in thee UK ? You can file your own case. You don’t need a Solicitor.
It’s mind-boggling and disappointing that those supposedly in charge of running the country are so dim and gullible that they have been completely taken in by this incompetent charlatan, who combines conmanship and snake oil selling in equal measure.
It also says a lot about the abysmal standards that apply at the BBC, when they often give this creep san pareil airtime to spread his lies.
Another possibility is that those in charge are for from gullible and that Ferguson serves a purpose to them, and the same applies at the BBC – it fits with their agenda.
Yes. I would have thought that the ‘gullible’ excuse went out of the window a long time ago – unless you’re gullible.
Ferguson is a valuable asset to them.
ok here we go – BBC have changed tack to get the lockdowns/restrictions they crave. Staff are off ill and that will overwhelm the NHS so even if omicrom milder staff shortages will bring the service to its knees so better. Absolute, transparent and obvious attempt to shift the narrative away from what looked so promising. If BoJo comes out and says we need to act because of so many staff absences then I will chain myself to the railings of No 10 … this is effing propaganda warfare being staged by a tax-payer funded news service!!!
Create a problem (make people test and self isolate for 10 days when they are not ill) then solve it by bringing in restrictions.
15000 staff off out of 1.3 million but of course they only mention the 15000. Then they throw in that the number of covid patients are 50% higher but don’t state the actual number. Fucking hopeless
There’s probably more off on maternity leave!
Neil Ferguson is the same person who built a flawed model in 2001 that said 150,000 people would die of BSE and which led to over 6 million cattle being unnecessarily slaughtered.
Then, at the start of covid 19, despite the graphic TV images from Italian care homes on the news every evening, and a warning that the UK was a few weeks behind, his covid model failed to consider the risks to care home residents. He missed a genuine opportunity to save many lives.
At the same time, he called for a lockdown predicting 250,000 to 500,000 deaths but ignored his own lockdown rules to meet someone else’s wife and had to resign his government post for a while.
He soon pops up on the BBC to provide yet more pessimistic scenarios with no probabilities attached to them, playing down good news that undermines his models.
That the Media and the Government are listening to Ferguson and his like is causing U.K. people to suffer losses of freedom and adversely affecting their mental and physical and economic well-being for decades to come.
On the other hand, for fans of lockdown and purveyors of fear, he’s a hero.
It was 11 million cattle. Documentary at UK Column.
The thing about vaccine scepticism is very true. Official sources have spread so much woo about the COVID vaccines (in particular, that they stop you killing grandma, and if you’ve already had COVID they give you “super-immunity”) that people are now wondering about other safety claims for existing vaccines too. There’s an interesting discussion here about how Robert F Kennedy Jr became involved with vaccine safety issues.
i doubt you could destroy trust and further if that was your actual aim.
What I am more worried about is a loss of trust in governments and public institutions for crying wolf. The mood is changing everywhere.” Waaaay to late, Prof
Somebody hunt Gates down and snap his head off. Then this will all stop overnight.
Just give him the injection. Then the 2nd, then the 3rd. There’s too little coverage of the elite apparently not taking their own favoured products.
It was reported that 100s of Members of Congress had opted for IVM. I wonder if any MPs have done so.
Of course, I shouldn’t ask that, because it’s their private medical data. Similarly, politicians who comment on my private medical data can GFT.
What I am more worried about is a loss of trust in governments and public institutions for crying wolf….
Should have worried about that 20 years ago when they started out on Climate Change…
It’s only ‘bad science’ and ‘irresponsible’ if you don’t believe that these doomsday predictions aren’t what’s been ordered of the modellers.
Even in Australia, the PM and CMO have begun to criticise worst-case scenarios that are offered without any context and devoid of any mention of probability of occurrence.
I posted this article on Facebook with the question, should Ferguson be going to prison?
A”loss of trust in governments”?
Can’t happen quickly enough.
In a sane society, Ferguson would be sentenced to katorga works.
One or two sane scientific voices apart, it seems that the positive data on Omicron is being presented by its researchers, and interpreted by politicians, with an air of disappointment. Only negative data and wildly exaggerated extrapolations will do – this is now the default national mindset.
I noticed this early on when South Africa reported that omicron was mild. Total chaos and denial in the West.
Yes, while based on less research the early claim that it was doubling every two to three days (which was improvised down on no evidence by everyone the government put up to speak) was seized on as concrete fact and was enough to get BJ on the TV using language like ‘tidal wave’ to terrify people for no reason and start another period of untold (and this time uncompensated) damage to the economy, not to mention our mental health and all the other known casualties of restrictions.
Same here. It crossed my mind that S. Africa might be on the brink of an epidemic of heart disease. 😉
I think it fits well their grand narrative: “better safe than sorry”, so they are very willing to make such “mistakes” to hammer down the point. It is to signal to the public that policies are going to be made from now on using that slogan and that no repercussions for the perpetrators are to be expected. Kinda like communist regimes of the past used to lie in people’s face. Everyone was well aware that they lied and how they lied, and still unable to do anything about it, and encouraged to participate in the lies if they wished any career advancement for themselves. This is the “new normal” they are talking about.
Chicken Little stands by the relative accuracy of his predictions and disassociates himself totally from those charlatans at Imperial College.
Funny how so many so-called ‘Conspiracy Theorists’ are proved right in the end. They saw through the likes of Ferguson straight away. I think a more respectful term should be ‘Conspiracy Analyst’, and that when you think about it, they are basically doing the job our security services and police and investigative journalists once did…
Back in the 70’s/80’s Ferguson would have either been admitted to an asylum or given a nice long gaol term. One can but hope…
>doing the job our security services and police and investigative journalists once did
Now they’re BEHIND the conspiracies…
“Conspiracy Analyst.”
Love that. It’s so me.
They have to keep ramping up the fear until everything is in place for the “great reset”. As Schwab (or is it Swab?) said in June 2020 “The pandemic represents a rare but narrow window of opportunity to reflect, reimagine, and reset our world”. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/06/now-is-the-time-for-a-great-reset/
Surely that is the most bizarre thing to say, a few months into a global “pandemic”? A “narrow window of opportunity”? It makes no sense unless this was all planned well in advance and was always meant to be part of a bigger agenda.
We will not be tagged and tracked like livestock.
we already are.
Yesterday’s story from Sweden says up to a thousand (or is it six thou) have already got their ‘little grain of rice’ implanted on the back of their hand. This allows big brother to track their every waking and sleeping activity.
Coming to a venue near you soon Horse.
Your mobile phone is telling GCHQ at this very moment where it is (next to you, probably!).
But… I thought you were a horse?
There are times when you question whether the world has gone absolutely insane. The hysterical nutters are now running the institutions. So yes, in many ways, the world has gone absolutely insane.
In any sane, rational society, your Fergusons, Whittys, Vallances, Javids, Hancocks, Goves, Johnsons of the world would, at best, be humoured, given a metaphorical pat on the head, led away from the corridors of power and influence and into a bungalow somewhere in Hertfordshire, sat in front of a fire, be given a glass of sherry and a book, and ultimately kept the hell away from power and important decision-making.
It beggars belief that we are being ruled by halfwits and sociopaths.
Hmm, glass of sherry and a book? How about a glass of whiskey and a gun?!
Well, I did say ‘at best’, so I was being generous.
Yes, given the untold harm that these people have caused, I wouldn’t object to your suggestion. They could be given a choice: shoot yourself in the head or the job will be done for you.
Marooning. Dumped on a sandbank at low tide, out of swimming reach of land, no provisions, one pistol with one bullet.
Best of all about that is that it would be their own free choice, just like having to choose between taking the jabs or losing your job is a ‘free choice’.
Rather than be led into a bungalow, they should be incarcerated and the keys thrown away.
Is it just me or are we finally heading into the finish line ahead?
It’s just you Rich. sadly, there’s a long wait to go yet. They won’t stop until everyone can be tracked AND controlled!
Yep.
A long long way to go.
They have been at war with us for about two years – planned many years before that – although they’ve not declared it yet.
Just watch and wait for dear Tony’s covid jab task force to get going!
Oh Lord, all I ask is just 5 minutes alone with him.
It isn’t so much that his models are completely useless, it is more that anyone listens to him.
Prophet Ferguson (pbuh) is our messenger for The Science.
A “Ferguson” is an exaggerated value, as in added time at the end of a football match or in modelling statistics of epidemics.
It may one day become a euphemism for swinging from a lamp post….
If he were left alone in a room with a revolver, he’d emerge predicting that without intervention, he may have shot himself 237 times.
In further breaking news, scientists have confirmed Brian Blessed has a beard.
Surely the beard has Brian. Moreover, the beard causes Covid.
Gordon’s alive? VULTAN!!!!!!!