The alarmist claims of Neil Ferguson and his modelling team at Imperial College have fuelled vaccine scepticism and led to needless lockdowns being imposed all over Europe, according to several leading scientists. The Telegraph‘s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has more.
The Covid modellers at Imperial College have begun to back down. About time too. Over the past few weeks, they have made extreme claims about the omicron variant that cannot be fully justified by fundamental science, let alone by clinical observation.
Academic etiquette restrains direct criticism, but immunologists say privately that Professor Neil Ferguson and his team breached a cardinal rule by inferring rates of hospitalisation, severe disease, and death from waning antibodies, and by extrapolating from infections that break through the first line of vaccine defence.
The rest are entitled to question whether they can legitimately do this. And we may certainly question whether they should be putting out terrifying claims of up to 5,000 deaths a day based on antibody counts.
“It is bad science and I think they’re being irresponsible. They have a duty to reflect the true risks but this is just headline grabbing,” said Dr Clive Dix, former chairman of the UK Vaccine Task Force.
Needless to say, these headlines have spread as fast as omicron itself. Britain is the Covid laboratory of the developed world, and what Imperial says right now has global resonance. Its dire warnings are contributing to some European countries imposing full or partial Christmas lockdowns.
Governments are so alarmed by the possibility that healthcare systems might collapse under pressure that they have neglected the opposite risk – and much more probable outcome – that omicron will largely bounce off a population where almost everybody has cell immunity from vaccines or past infection, and in the case of Britain where most vulnerable people have been triple jabbed for good measure.
“To talk of 5,000 deaths a day is a very high number. It is risky to push apocalyptic scenarios that are highly unlikely to happen,” said Professor Francois Balloux, Director of the UCL Genetics Institute.
“What I am more worried about is a loss of trust in governments and public institutions for crying wolf. The mood is changing everywhere.”
Worth reading in full.
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Dr. Doshi was particularly impressive. Disappointing you put him behind the paywall, at the expense of Michael Wolff who seems to have his own version of the truth. Sells books, I guess.
Wolff is an exemplar of Trump Derangement Syndrome ( Malignant Variety). I assume his inclusion on this episode was a comedic interlude between two serious and thoughtful contributors.
Wolff was a disaster. I was wondering where he was coming from until he said “Trump wants to give the advantage to Putin”. Then it all made sense. He’s a left-wing TDS sufferer whose whole world has collapsed. His weary depressing voice says it all.
He should watch Ivor Cummings introducing Jeffrey Sachs:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-RnDNy0Iew
And if he can stand a further spanking, watch the whole Sachs presentation to the EU Parliamentary group (strange video – starts at -11.05 point….)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewvrbvEckxQ
Is Michael Wolf a lefty? His assessment if Trump might be quite accurate, but he made some statements that indicated he has lefty leanings
Wolf also states that Trump was indicted 4 times, but does not elaborate that these were mostly, lefty trumped up charges trying to prevent him from getting into the presidency.
Wolff unable to answer questions or provide any insight beyond a one-dimensional comic version of Trump that my 9-year-old would offer with more subtlety.
Laurie far too easy on him. Applaud guests with views from all sides but please, only those with something to say?
Very interesting discussion with Dr Doshi. Fascinating insight into the politics of how Net Zero insidiously controls events. The Chevron Deference being particularly iniquitous.