According to Health Secretary Sajid Javid, there are currently 4,713 confirmed Omicron infections in the U.K. But in his statement to Parliament yesterday he added that the UKHSA has estimated the true current number of new daily Omicron infections to be around 200,000 (I assume in England, though he didn’t say). He added that this represents around 20% of the current estimated daily infections in England, including 44% in London. Note that these UKHSA figures are based on modelling that has not been released to the public.
Separately, the UKHSA has reported that just 10 people so far have been admitted to hospital in England with the Omicron variant (most of whom are double-vaccinated).
On transmissibility, early UKHSA estimates for the household secondary attack rate (the proportion of household contacts an infected person infects) using contact tracing data is 21.6% for Omicron and 10.7% for Delta. This suggests Omicron (incidentally, pronounced with a short ‘O’ as in orange, not a long ‘O’ as in over – omega is the Greek letter that signifies a long O) may be around twice as transmissible as Delta in the current population. However, to put this in context, note that the Alpha direct secondary attack rate in December 2020 was estimated by the UKHSA at 15.5%, while the Omicron estimate is based on a small number of infections and, according to the UKHSA, “may be influenced by improved ascertainment around Omicron cases”. The equivalent figure for “Omicron confirmed, highly probable, probable or possible” is 15.2%. In any case, even on the likely inflated figure of 21.6% it means that only around one in five household contacts of those with Omicron go on to test positive, and the difference in absolute terms between Omicron and earlier variants is only that 5-10% more of a person’s contacts become infected.
New daily reported infections in Gauteng province, South Africa, the original epicentre of Omicron, continue to plateau with no rise for over a week now.
The threat from Omicron therefore appears to be being hugely exaggerated. That includes in the figures quoted by the Health Secretary in Parliament. For if, as Mr Javid implied, 200,000 daily Omicron infections in England is 20% of the total, then the Government must believe there to be currently around one million daily SARS-CoV-2 infections in England, or seven million a week. It’s very hard to square that with the latest ONS estimate that in the week ending December 1st, 891,500 people in England were infected with SARS-CoV-2. Since that is a prevalence estimate, you can roughly halve it to get a weekly incidence estimate (assuming people test positive on average for two weeks), giving 445,750 new weekly infections. That means the UKHSA is estimating a weekly incidence figure roughly 16 times or 1,500% higher than the ONS’s most recent estimate. That simply isn’t plausible and the Government needs to do a much better job of calibrating its data estimates, particularly when providing information to lawmakers ahead of a crucial vote.
What’s more, the number of daily infections in England reported on the Government dashboard for the week ending December 1st is around 37,500, which gives a weekly figure of around 262,500. That means, if we take the ONS estimates as the reality, the Government’s testing programme is only finding around 59% of weekly infections. That means fully 41% of all SARS-CoV-2 infections, or 183,250 every week, are being missed completely. What is the point of all this testing, tracing and isolating if not far off a half of all infections, nearly two hundred thousand a week, are being missed entirely?
That problem is dwarfed, however, by the situation if you take the UKHSA’s incidence estimate as the real situation, as the Health Secretary yesterday implied that MPs should. In that case, the Government is only finding a measly 4.2% of infections each week (using the daily dashboard figure for the most recent week of 42,000 a day or 294,000 a week). Of course, the UKHSA estimate is totally implausible and it is disgraceful that it was presented to Parliament at all. But assuming it to be true, it would mean the test and trace system was even more completely useless.
In truth, while test and trace is pointless even on ONS estimates, as it misses over 40% of infections, it isn’t as bad as the ludicrous UKHSA estimate would imply. It is a scandal that the UKHSA’s obviously wayward, inflated modelling was presented to MPs ahead of today’s vote.
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Why? because he is a liar. The PM, Vallance, Whitty, Ferguson, Michie “the communist” and Sage as a whole are liars. We have been lied to since the start. The true figures will be hidden under some form of 30 year rule,.They have tyrannised this country and its population, sown terror, locked us down without permission and created panic where there was no need. The only question is – how do we prosecute them for their actions, and who has the guts, authority and power to prosecute?
Surely it’s time to put an end to this damned modelling? When has it ever been right? I would have far more faith in Mystic Meg than in that dolt Fergusson and his cohorts.
The PCR test is the same as ever. Omicron is being determined by the absence of the “S”protein. But ever since testing started 20% of positive PCR tests have not shown the”S” protein.It is only over the last week or two that all positive PCR tests showing negative for the “S” protein are being given as Omicron. Is there no end to this deliberately misleading and frightening of the public?
Because he’s a fucking liar
Yet more ‘deliberate intent’ to continue the lie. How much more?
Lies, lies and damn lies. From day 1.
They all know that we know they lie but just don’t care.
Because he’s just another lying, careerist government bastard?
Ivermectin help reduce the severity of vaccine adverse reactions. If someone is suffering from a post vaccine syndrome, FLCCC clinicians and a growing network of colleagues have reported significant clinical responses to ivermectin. Because Ivermectin has 5 different mechanisms of action against coronaviruses, the medication is also effective with the different variants of the virus. Get your Ivermectin while you still can! https://ivmpharmacy.com
Our esteemed government wants to scare people into getting boosters, wearing masks, crushing those who disagree with them and finally gaining absolute power “for the greater good”.
Helped along by biased non-impartial media like the BBC, the most trusted source of information in the UK.
The sad thing is that the alternative is even worse…
What’s the solution?
Sajid Jab-it is typical of the lying double-crossing two-faced politicians I’m sick to death of – they say one thing and then do exactly the opposite – when he first became health minister Jab-it announced that we would just have to get used to living with covid as we do with flu every year – now just a few months later we see restrictions, mask mandates and compulsory vaccines and maybe even another lockdown in January – this does not look or sound like ‘living with the virus‘ – yet another lie from yet another government minister who has been outed as yet another pathological liar.
But they aren’t ‘protective mask’ mandates are they?
If they were then we would see no more ‘face nappies’ that have a negative effect on the health of the wearers and those they blow streams of damp bacteria laden human fog at.
Instead we would have to wear properly fitted N95 or N99 masks made by an established manufacturer with a solid reputation for quality and efficacy – such as 3M – as they are required to do in Germany.
He should be known as Sajid Three Jabs Javid in perpetuity. Or at least until capital punishment is reintroduced.
Lets not beat around the bush here – he is blatantly lying – government has access to all the most accurate and up-to-date information they need whenever they want it – but they carefully select which information they want in order to push an agenda – either covering Johnsons arse or another step towards the Chinafication of Britain with a totalitarian social credit system I don’t know – but whatever it is Jabbit is clearly lying.
Agree wholeheartedly; I have relayed some highly erudite studies and reports, that run 180 degrees to “The Narrative”, to my MP, a dyed in the wool party apparatchik, who is the latter day Felix Derzhinsky of “Fact Cheka” fame. Not a thick arse but a political opportunist – he knows that we know that he knows what he backs is indefensible from a moral ethical – to say nothing of a factual – and “sincere according to truth” POV .
These blatant lies – so easily demonstrated as such – are, for me, the proof that demonstrates true evil intent – despite the votes this week, unless these MPs can demonstrate 100% “noe” votes from the off , they are all culpable and should not, if morals and ethics prevail, have any future role in positions “of trust’.
Utopia I readily acknowledge – “chance of success”, not great. But it should happen – I keep some hope it will.
Very good broadcast from UK Column here who are always excellent and keep their fingers on the pulse and their eyes firmly on the govenment. Has a great clip of Steve Baker MP too who has a strong message delivered with passion and good energy:
UK Column News – Monday 13th December 2021
https://www.bitchute.com/video/nVNb8D1nIW3f/
200,000 infections, 10 Hospitalisations, 1 death, Seems a lot safer and effective than the vaccine
I’ve never seen a politician at the dispatch box so scared for his life. He made his bed with the devil a long time ago.
Come on guys, he is a placement for the New World Order mob, you known “you will own nothing and be happy”
BTW, that bit about pronouncation of this Moronic new Chinese variety from Africa, has me puzzled.
All my working life I have called ‘it’ Ohms Law. (I=V/R).
Even when we had a dog we called her favourite diet OOOmeega Rings.
Ah well you live and learn.
Either Javid has gone native or he has been got at. I wouldn’t like to guess which of these possibilities is correct.
Propaganda team has responded to the point frequently made here, as to why a booster will work magic when the first two spikings are clearly useless.
BBC has wheeled out Profs Jonathan Ball and Danny Altmann, Nottingham and Imperial College, to provide the Ladybird guide to virology and booster bollocks. Guys, you should be utterly ashamed of yourselves.
‘Why Did Sajid Javid Tell Parliament that Daily Covid Infections are 16 Times Higher Than the Latest ONS Estimate?’
Because he’s a duplicitous bastard.
He’s a fucking liar
They are lying and they know we know they are lying but they don’t care because they are pumping cash in to keep everyone quiet
Dr Robert Malone, inventor of MRNA vaccination, on why you shouldn’t vac your children.
Very powerful and compelling; sadly both children are >18 and responsible for their own decisions and having very great difficulty reconciling the conflicts between “living their life” and having “a life to live”.
This is not about a virus, why don’t journalists do their job and go investigate what it is about
Mainstream journalists stopped investigating anything years ago. Why bother when you can just parrot what others are saying and still get paid?
Have you noticed how the MSM are reporting that the necessity for a 3rd jab is necessitated by the “fact” that 2 jobs are insufficient to stop “infection”? So the fuck what? This virus is dangerous to a tiny minority of the population and yes, for coviphylliacs, you could be unlucky and be an outlier who gets seriously ill (as is the case with ANY virus) – but using the term “infection” conflates both scenarios, one of which is very likely, the other, much more improbable. Are we moving to a situation where we see the common cold as a public health emergency? What we now see is yet another shift in the Covid narrative, from “we must protect the NHS” (March 2020) to “no-one must get ill from Covid” (Autumn 2020) to “no-one must get Covid at all” (now). And all of this goes on with no serious questions being posed by journalists or by the sodding Labour party who are supposed to in opposition. Beggars belief
and what’s in the jab?
Exactly the same stuff that failed twice.
But they try to imply differnently by referring to them as ‘boosters’ rather than ‘number 3 of the two pricks which the government assured you would be sufficient’
Plus, conveniently, when OMG appeared, they had the ‘boosters’ already there to begin jabbing
Plain, old-fashioned lying, which will, as usual, be reported uncritically by the joke known as “MSM”. It will then be taken up by the millions of gormless drones.
I see why he was brought back now. Internationalist central banker on board for digital currency/ social credit app. No scruples just sees numbers on a spread sheet.
Yes.. banksters everywhere you look.. there’s even one running the BBC now..
Because he’s been getting away with lying through his teeth for nearly two years, they all have. This should not surprise anyone any more.
Can we please stop taking anything about these variants seriously? For example, I remember reading repeatedly that Delta was far more transmissible than the Wuhan strain, but according to these figures Delta is less transmissible than Wuhan and conveniently far less transmissible than Omicron. Treating the variants as if they are important, and poring over stats related to them, just gives the whole charade credibility.
And another thing: When the existence of Omicron was revealed to the world how could they possibly know that that variant would start to take over and become dominant? Why couldn’t it be some other variant? The whole story is ultra fishy.
Indeed. Have you ever heard people demanding details of which variant of flu they have caught? Or in the case of colds wanting to know which virus it is (could be any one of various coronaviruses and rhinoviruses).
Even if any of these ‘predictions’ were close to accurate, surely by now the entire population would have herd immunity twice over. I remember thinking last year, when and if we get to the point that the total number of ‘infections’ exceeds the size of the population, will anyone in the media even mention it? LOL.
nice graph to play with
excess mortality from before the pandemic til now
sweden better than almost all -the few with lower excess mortality are immunilogically naive – ie norway and finland – haven’t even had their first wave yet. germany missed the first wave
but they will get there
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-excess-mortality-p-scores-projected-baseline?tab=chart&country=USA~ISR~SWE~CHE~GBR~DEU~NOR
hardest lockdown country in the world – Peru – can barely be on the same graph
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-excess-mortality-p-scores-projected-baseline?tab=chart&country=USA~ISR~SWE~CHE~GBR~DEU~NOR~AUT~FIN~PER
lockdowns kill
I struggle to understand what greater than 100% excess mortality means.
100% is double the number of people died as history would suggest
0% you get the deaths you expect
And still no mention anywhere of the most infectious place in the country at the moment – the local vaccination centre.
I can’t work out whether this is an inadvertently brilliant idea to get as many people as possible sick for Christmas, or complete myopia.
Or perhaps I’m the only one seeing this. Difficult to tell any more.
There’s a new Matrix movie out for Christmas. Perhaps somebody is trying to tell us something.
If you were going to get a booster why on earth would you wait in the cold? I don’t understand. Why not just wait til the panic has died down?
It would make far more sense to do the jabs out in the cold in a marquee with the sides up. That would guarantee the correct level of ventilation.
virtue signalling
Because they are panicking. Listen to radio 5 if you can bare it.
I had to turn off commercial radio the other day when the propaganda came on.
Oh, they can still make movies? Great!
Some movie director really ought to do a proper job on this whole shambles…
We will be at Plan C before the New Year, because that is what “they” want. I hope this is all western governments frightened of being the worst at “protecting” their electorate. Any other reason would be really uncharitable. I never trusted this thing from late-April 2020.
This is guaranteed.
Anything to get the jabs in arms and the vaccine passports in place.
Ah but it’ll only be temporary they will day and the sheep will say well if it’s what it takes to get our freedoms back and oh it’s only a small inconvenience.
And then watch as the covid pass morphs into a pass for your benefits or your ID to purchase beer…
They are just slowly chipping away yet the sheep cannot see it. Little by little….
‘If it’s what it takes to get our freedom back’. They are flushing there freedom down the toilet.
Well they’ll be no bog roll to flush soon.
You summed it up perfectly. Tyrannical regimes (of which I think this is clearly one; nicely facilitated by a democratic system which is broken) gain control and power one little step at a time. https://youtu.be/16uBwZxtzi0
School has told the pupils to make sure they take all their booms home for Christmas. Maybe an innocent remark, or have headteachers been tipped off?
What is a boom?: