There follows a guest post by ‘Amanuensis’, an ex-academic and senior Government researcher/scientist. It was first published on his Substack page.
The latest UKHSA Covid cases, hospitalisations and deaths data shows a continuation of an interesting trend – while the majority of deaths with Covid occur in the 28 days following their positive test, there appears to be a relatively larger number of vaccinated dying after this point, compared with the unvaccinated.
This effect can be seen in the following table 1, which shows data from the UKHSA vaccine surveillance reports for weeks 36 to 48:
For example, for those over 80 (the final row of the table), there were 480 deaths with Covid in unvaccinated individuals in the first 28 days after their positive test, but an additional 59 in the days that followed, up to day 60 – that’s an increase of approximately 12%. However, for vaccinated individuals aged over 80 there were 3,521 deaths with Covid in the first 28 days and an additional 852 deaths from day 28 to day 60 – an increase of approximately 24%.
This pattern of relatively more deaths with covid between day 28 and 60 in the vaccinated is seen for all age groups:
Note the huge disparity for the younger age groups – for those vaccinated and aged 20-30 there were nearly as many Covid deaths after day 28 as before it.
Of course, this is only for the additional deaths in the second month – how does this effect impact on deaths overall?
You can see that there is a small but non-trivial increase in deaths in the vaccinated compared with the unvaccinated, but, again, note how significant the increase is for the younger age groups.
It is very important to note that each age group has very different absolute death rates – even with significant vaccination levels those aged over 80 still have the highest death rates, and deaths in those aged 20-30 remain very rare.
This is not a trivial matter, for two reasons:
- Official death rates from Covid count only deaths in the 28 days following a positive test. There are clearly more deaths related to the Covid infection in the month afterwards. In the vaccinated this amounted to at least an additional 25% deaths.
- Official estimates of vaccine efficiency compare deaths in the vaccinated versus unvaccinated in the 28 days following the positive test – given that the vaccinated appear to have relatively more deaths between day 28 and day 60 following their positive test, it is likely that official figures overestimate vaccine efficiency. This is of particular concern for young adults, for whom deaths in the vaccinated appear to be nearly double those used for estimates of age-specific vaccine efficiency.
So, why might this be occurring? I can think of a few potential reasons:
- The vaccinated might be getting better medical attention. I think this is highly unlikely – healthcare staff are professionals and would be unwilling to introduce biases into their care.
- The vaccines allow those infected to cope better with severe Covid, and thus they ‘hang on to life’ for longer than the unvaccinated. I think this is also unlikely – severe Covid isn’t a viral disease – indeed, in many cases the virus is completely eradicated during the earliest stages of severe Covid. Severe Covid is an immune disorder where the body’s immune system goes ‘out of control’. Thus the ability of the vaccine-induced antibodies to fight off the viral infection is less relevant.
- The vaccines result in a longer period with minor symptoms, thus delaying hospitalisation and, when it occurs, death.
I believe this latter point is what is occurring. This is compatible with our understanding of the impact of the vaccine on the immune response:
- The vaccines mainly stimulate the immune system to produce longer lasting IgG antibodies. These protect against the virus infecting the whole body, but provide little protection against infection in the upper respiratory tract (this requires IgA antibodies, which are produced by the immune system after vaccination, but which wane very rapidly and are at insignificant levels by approximately day 50 post vaccination, e.g. see here).
- Thus the vaccines will likely offer little protection against infection by SARS-CoV-2 from about 50 days post-vaccination – however, their circulating IgG antibodies will make it less likely for the vaccinated to develop systemic infection with SARS-CoV-2 and thus make serious Covid less likely.
- In some individuals the lack of protection against SARS-CoV-2 in the upper respiratory tract allows any infection to be maintained. This can then repeatedly attempt to infect other parts of the body until the point where either the immune system overcomes the infection and the individual recovers or, in a minority of cases, the virus overcomes the immune system and the individual develops severe Covid.
If the hypothesis above is true, then we might expect to see relatively more unvaccinated individuals in hospital in the first three to four weeks of any emerging Covid wave, but that after this period of time the number of vaccinated individuals in hospitals should increase. We’re appear to be about to enter a new Covid wave in the UK – let’s see how things transpire.
Finally, I note that if the above hypothesis is true then a proportion of vaccinated individuals will be infected with a high viral load for a relatively long period of time – does this explain the very high Covid case numbers we’ve seen in so many countries around the world since vaccination levels reached a high enough threshold?
Stop Press: In the latest report from the ZOE Covid Symptom Study, the authors warn that early Covid symptoms like headaches and fever could be mistaken for vaccine side-effects and the recently jabbed may be unwittingly spreading the virus.
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Someone let me know if Johnson is assassinated at the conference, otherwise I’ll give it a swerve and continue as I was.
“We’re seeing … growth … mirroring… South Africa”.
Plan B
Another list of measures to ignore.
Ah, Patrick Valance actually said the ‘measures have clearly worked before’… hahahaha.
Valance the eco health linked guy who funded SARS2’s development?
I think that is Peter Daszak.
‘From Friday, compulsory masks in theatres, venues, etc., but not when eating, drinking, exercising, or singing.’
This point alone shows what a load of irrational, unscientific nonsense the whole thing is!
The press are asking about the party. That’s as close to a (staged) assassination as we’re going to get.
“The party” is a clear distraction from Plan B. Timed to perfection.
Isnt this what the injections are set to bring about in many of the injected – as has already been publicly admitted to in Israel – that the injected have an immune system deterioration. On top of whatever the outcome is from having seriously damaged blood cells.
2021-10-25 ::: Nature of the COVID-era public health disaster in the USA, from all-cause mortality and socio-geo-economic and climatic data
https://denisrancourt.ca/entries.php?id=107&name=2021_10_25_nature_of_the_covid_era_public_health_disaster_in_the_usa_from_all_cause_mortality_and_socio_geo_economic_and_climatic_data
By Denis G. Rancourt, Marine Baudin, Jérémie Mercier
Abstract: We investigate why the USA, unlike Canada and Western European countries, has a sustained exceedingly large mortality in the “COVID-era” occurring from March 2020 to present (October 2021). All-cause mortality by time is the most reliable data for detecting true catastrophic events causing death, and for gauging the population-level impact of any surge in deaths from any cause. The behaviour of the USA all-cause mortality by time (week, year), by age group, by sex, and by state is contrary to pandemic behaviour caused by a new respiratory disease virus for which there is no prior natural immunity in the population. Its seasonal structure (summer maxima), age-group distribution (young residents), and large state-wise heterogeneity are unprecedented and are opposite to viral respiratory disease behaviour, pandemic or not. We conclude that a pandemic did not occur. We infer that persistent chronic psychological stress induced by the long-lasting government-imposed societal and economic transformations during the COVID-era converted the existing societal (poverty), public-health (obesity) and hot-climate risk factors into deadly agents, largely acting together, with devastating population-level consequences against large pools of vulnerable and disadvantaged residents of the USA, far above preexisting pre-COVID-era mortality in those pools. We also find a large COVID-era USA pneumonia epidemic that is not mentioned in the media or significantly in the scientific literature, which was not adequately addressed. Many COVID-19-assigned deaths may be misdiagnosed bacterial pneumonia deaths. The massive vaccination campaign (380 M administered doses, 178 M fully vaccinated individuals, mainly January-August 2021 and March-August 2021, respectively) had no detectable mitigating effect, and may have contributed to making the younger population more vulnerable (35-64 years, summer-2021 mortality).
I wouldn’t rule this possibility out. Indeed, it’s one I’ve suspected for some time. NHS staff are humans over and above being professionals, who have biases and hold judgments just as everyone else does. They are more likely than your average person to believe in and trust the so-called vaccines. They are exposed to daily brainwashing by the organisation. I think the last 2 years has shown just how easily professionalism and caring can be relegated as core values by the nhs.
A “professional” is someone who follows instructions they receive from a client and who is covered by insurance. They do what they’re told to do, but they stay within the terms of their insurance.
In particular, if you can’t identify a client who gives the instructions, the person is not a professional. Nurses and NHS medics and schoolteachers aren’t professionals, except in the weaker sense of being people who are paid to do a job, the same as bin men or hod carriers and most of the rest of the population aged between 21 and 60.
I recall anecdotal evidence from last year demonstrating the disdain of NHS staff for people who fail to comply with ‘the rules’. A young lady had been injured by falling out of a window at an ‘illegal’ gathering. The nurse who told the story had remarked to a fellow nurse how sad it was that the young lady had suffered such serious life-changing injuries. The second nurse retorted that she “[didn’t} care of the young lady dies as she got what she deserved”.
I truly believe that a different treatment protocol is applied to vaccinated v non-vaccinated patients, one being less harmful than the other. I am even prepared to believe that this is done deliberately in order to increase the relative numbers of unvaccinated deaths.
I’m not sure if it’s deliberate (perhaps sometimes it is, although I wouldn’t think that’s the norm), but I certainly think that overall, the vaccinated and unvaccinated will not be treated equitably in hospital, and the bias will only be in one direction.
Ah, is that why they want to sack the “unvaccinated”?
The related issue here is the accuracy of death certificates. Entirely possible that the knowledge of someone having been ‘vaccinated’, or not, influences what is written down as a potential cause, or related cause, of death. The ‘workers’ who do that are human, and quite likely to have been influenced by the propaganda, after all.
The experimental jabs are compromising peoples immune systems and there will be an epidemic of morbidity and mortality in the vaccinated which will overload all health systems according to Dr. Geert Vanden Bossche.
https://www.globalresearch.ca/renowned-virologist-warns-collapse-health-system-due-complications-covid-vaccines/5763796
I really shouldn’t hope he’s right.
But I hope he is – and the sooner even the bastards in charge cant lie about it any longer, the better.
Nature will win.
It’s as simple as that.
If we fuck about with it then we deserve all we get, well the jabbed that is.
Then the refuseniks will be top dogs…
Us unjabbed in the control group might be in internment camps by then.
It could be brutal for my friends (age range ~55-80) who still mostly trust the NHS. They still believe that the NHS exists to serve the interests of patients.
This faith in the NHS alone probably explains why fewer Americans have taken the products. They don’t trust profit-making hospitals, insurers and doctors as much.
A few good friends have remained unjabbed. Some who I had thought had now seen through the scam and realised their mistake in taking one or two doses have now had a booster … FFS.
This must be the first disease in human history where poor people in Egypt, India, Bangladesh etc get better medical treatment (IM and HCQ) than rich people in Germany, UK, USA (jabs and intubation).
There are reports from hospitals of AIDS like illnesses in the jabbed patients. We know that thrombocytopenia happens post jab, a medic said that one of her patients presented with a count of zero & after 2 blood transfusions the level increased to just 7, way below normal. The immune system has been completely shafted by the jabs. The shorter the time frame between them, the more harm & inflammation will occur in the body until the immune system is simply overwhelmed….
Sad because so many have placed their trust in the medics.
A wrecked immune system allows any pathogen to thrive – whether latent virus or disorder or a new arrival.
I admire how these questions are asked in good faith, despite a tidal wave of findings and disclosures that are there for anyone who spends about ten seconds looking for them. Growing by the day. I guarantee you that by the beginning of January you will have to acknowledge certain truths. Think about it there is no escape clause.
Looks like he’s determined to bring in mandatory vaccine passports next year!
“Haven’t ruled out mandatory vaccinations”
Yes, vaccine efficacy is being overestimated because deaths in the vaccinated are delayed compared with the unvaccinated.
Not that it makes any difference, people are getting paid well (bribed some would say) to stay at home. This ends when people run out of money, although I’m beginning to think the sheeple enjoy Communism.
Yes, the hoards of Little Britlers are absolutely in their element. Key Worker badges and stickers on the car, hard-wired authoritarian mindset, rules coming in like an avalanche of tyranny – all geared towards the common goal of “saving lives” – those who dont obey are risking lives. Thats how they get them so tangled up in this crap – by appealing to their better nature and manipulating it to the point where they become a danger to themselves, their kids and freedom itself.
This Pivotal Moment
https://www.bitchute.com/video/JAu0KMztzbKY/
You should look at early indications for prostate cancer for example.I only mention that because it serves well as an index, If you have had any of these injections you should be mindful of early indications of tumours especially in the lymphatic areas.Or the flaring up of autoimmune issues.
I’d think pancreatic cancer.
The jabs can cause diabetes similar effects.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/articles/PMC8546144/
I’ve been through the data. There is an early sign of an increase in consultations with an oncologist, but notably not radiotherapy. I’ve got no greater granularity on this, so can’t correlate against individual cancers.
There are also signals of significantly increased activity in gastrointestinal surgery, spinal surgery, stroke, TIA, Sports medicine, intensive care for babies and skin disorders.
I can’t tell which are associated with covid, lockdown or vaccines. It would help if they’d release these data by vaccination status, but of course they don’t do that, as it might help people work out what was going on.
I’m not even angry with the government- they are just puppets. I am angry with the population for enabling this and I no longer see them as my fellow citizens and will no longer treat them as such. I am fucking furious with them and will take it out on them as and when I can.
Almost screaming with frustration as my husband thinks I am being ‘dramatic’ about my concerns re the latest from the government. I have just written a stinking e mail to my MP and I hope the government are well and truly stuffed next week in the by election.
This is really doing my head in, and I am sure I am not alone. What can we do?
Your husband is two things, the problem and (sadly) joined by a lot of people.
My wife still thinks it’s about a virus!
She and millions of others, I sorry to say. I have a group of friends who believe that as well as a few other amazing things – policemen wearing cameras, vaccine passports etc. Fortunately I rarely see them now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fL00v2YjWKI
Let them see this and ask if the jabbed can spread and catch it why discriminate against the unjabbed?
there is no logic in a “fully brainwashed” ( Media dose every day for two years) brain.
This has been is a Media and fake PCR test pandemic.
Ditto in my house. I’m unjabbed and have been the subject of family pressure to get jabbed. Any attempt to discuss the bigger picture is met with derision and accusations of being a bit unhinged and gullible.(Pot calling kettle black there, methinks.) Part of the problem is that I’m a biologist and most of the rest of the family aren’t so the technical stuff isn’t appreciated and the psychological side of things denied. I have a doctor son who also has a degree in biology but he’s gone over to the dark side although we never discuss Covid. The one time I tried he got very angry as he’d been working on a Covid ward and said it was very distressing and I had no idea what I was talking about. Mum is the word…
At this time of year there’s always going to be appreciable numbers of mainly old people hospitalised with upper respiratory tract infections, and many would find their situation distressing- clinical staff treat many patients whose conditions lay people would find distressing, and they (the staff) harden themselves against emotive reactions to enable them to continue doing clinical work. Many of them (the patients) will have returned positive PCR/lateral flow tests, the utility of which is, as we know, a matter of ongoing and suppressed debate. In the nature of URT infections, some of these patients will have active, symptomatic Covid- the disease and the virus both exist and anyone who tells you they don’t can safely be ignored- and some of them, unfortunately, will have acquired it while in hospital. But is there really such a thing as a “Covid Ward”? I’m not suggesting you put any of this to your son- I spent four decades tiptoeing around doctors’ institutional groupthink and their egos, and I know there would be no point in your doing so. You are as well to say what I do, i.e. nowt.
Many people feel that the truth is going to be hidden forever. This is simply not possible given the numbers that we are dealing with.Personal experience alone will suffice. But in terms of the debilitating effect that this will have on society none of us are prepared for. A vaccine injured young adult costs about $5 million in terms of ongoing care. No society could cope with this.We are moving into that time and such a time will call on us. Hopefully the decadence hasn’t set in too much.
Once again, nothing says “the drugs don’t work” more than the PM saying it’s either being double jabbed or showing a negative LFT that will get you entry into a big venue.
Except soon being double jabbed won’t be enough, you’ll need to be “fully vaccinated” (watch the term “double jabbed” drop out of government and MSM parlance very soon).
Val-ance (n) A short drapery whose purpose is to conceal structural fixtures.
Considering that the vast majority of people in the older groupings are vaccinated, it’s no surprise that the vaccinated contribute significant numbers of deaths, yet the, um, vaccine sceptics present this as evidence that the vaccines are at best ineffective, and at worst lethal. I don’t think it was ever claimed that vaccination would confer preternatural longevity..
The Prime Minister has himself confirmed that the vaccines are ineffective.
The gene therapy initially promised protection from infection.
Lol.
Losers against natural immunity.
But that basic concept seems to have been lost.
So, err let’s just blame the refuseniks.
No problem, we have the BBC onside for the sheeps.
You either didn’t read it, or you didn’t understand it.
Preternatural longevity – it’ll be the opposite in you, I think you’ll find.
Even BJ admits the jabs don’t work:
https://youtu.be/fL00v2YjWKI
Of course.
What is important is to note the relative hospitalisations/deaths in vaccinated vs unvaccinated, how these related to overall levels in the population and also the direction of travel.
Analysis of these data suggest that the vaccines are nowhere near as effective as we were told when the initial jabbings started (I recall being told ‘99.9% effective’, because I printed out that news story and showed it to my elderly parents to support their getting jabbed, even though the vaccines were experimental).
It is also important to balance the above with relative hospitalisations/deaths in the vaccinated vs unvaccined for everything other than covid — this would indicate if vaccine side effects were becoming problematic. Unfortunately those data are nowhere to be seen, so we’re nearly completely reliant on anecdotal information, such as extremely fit and medically scrutinised footballers dying at a statistically significant pace.
In the older age groups where there are very few unvaxxed the relative efficacy of the vaccines depends on knowing how many unvaxxed there are. This brings us back to the NIMS issue, no one knows how many people there are. Subtract the vaxxed from the total for the 70-79 year olds & you get a number somewhere between 200,000 & 2m! Prof Spiegelhalter slagged off HSA for relying on NIMS data, which showed vaxxed 50 year olds were 100% more likely to catch covid, but is happy to rely on NIMS data to show that vaccines are efficacious.
Week 48 HSA vaccine surveillance report tells us 93% of cases in the ages groups >40 in weeks 44-47 were in the vaccinated. Just about bang on the proportion of the over 40s who are vaxxed. I think this rather undermines your point.
They test for the flu since they’ve never isolated Covid-19. Which makes me wonder how they can tell there is a delta variant. They never isolated the virus but they use a test to show the damage of a solution does on monkey kidney cells then show the cellular debris as proof of the virus. So, they can use this method to claim an UNENDING! amount of variants. A lot of cancers and “viruses” are probably just different forms of parasites. Since the tests can’t differentiate between cold and flu and covid then doesn’t that mean ivermectin cures both the cold and the flu? Welcome to “they’ve been lying to us our entire lives about everything”. Get your Ivermectin while you still can! https://ivmpharmacy.com
The week 48 HSA covid 19 surveillance report has data from weeks 44-47.
During those 4 weeks there were 1,618 deaths among vaccinated over 80 year olds.
If we go back to the report from week 46 we find that there were 11,863 ‘cases’ among the vaccinated. I’ve gone back to the week 46 report because this should capture the point when the week 48 report deaths were identified as ‘cases’.
1,618 deaths as a percentage of 11,863 ‘cases’ gives us a CFR (case fatality rate) of 13.6%.
If, as the HSA report states, that the vaccines are 90% effective in the absence of vaccines should we have expected 9x the number of deaths (more deaths than cases!).
If we go back to pre-vaccine days the CFR for the over 80’s was estimated to be in the 5% to 10% range. How come it’s now 13%?
This kind of analysis is simple and makes it clear how the efficacy is over estimated.
If you take them on face value, a 90% efficacy level suggests tens of thousands of lives are being saved every month.
There’s much more going on but to suggest that bodies being packed high is being kept from the door by these vaccines is just insanity squared,
Ivermectin could have saved many lives, is used in India, Africa, Japan and Bangla Desh but has been ignored by the NHS trashed and banned by Johnson and Whitty in the UK and trashed by Fauci and the entire servile media – its use would have cancelled the need for the vaccines – which, as it now seems they do not work, perhaps we should concentrate on what they do actually do to the human body (see latest Yellow Card reports)
Why is no-one interested in those who have died or been severely affected following ‘vaccination’.
Answer: Zero Media attention? “Nothing to see here – move on”?
“In some individuals the lack of protection against SARS-COV2 in the upper respiratory tract allows any infection to be maintained”.
Presumably this means that (at least some) vaccinated people are infectious for longer than the unvaccinated, and therefore the “vaccines” are actually leading to an increase in transmission. This is exactly the opposite of what a real vaccine would do, and shows that being jabbed doesn’t protect your loved ones or the wider community, but actually puts them at greater risk. Therefore vaccine passports for some venues will do bugger all to reduce infections, but we all knew that already.
Seems reasonable. After all, if it just does what it says on the leaflets, reducing the symptoms if infected, it might result in the recipients going out when they would otherwise stay home for a few days. That would encourage transmission, in effect. Remember that in the past it was the norm for folk to turn up for work with the odd minor cold, rather than having ‘signed off sick’ on their records too much; not good for promotion if there are too many of those entries on file, after all.
Such a pathetic article, useless… it only serves to keep people distracted with endless useless petty little questions.
So frustrating and irritating!!!
One very important point is that the vaccinated person is considered as “unvaccinated” for the first 14 days after treatment. Apparently this is to allow the vaccination time to work.
This is a key decision, because it means that many people who are vaccinated get counted as unvaccinated deaths. It also skews the results with regard to people dying from side-effects of the vaccine, because if you have a very strong reaction to the vaccine and die with a week, you are actually counted as not-vaccinated. This is totally dishonest, and very dangerous!!