We all remember what happened last year when Sweden’s unflappable state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell announced there wouldn’t be a lockdown. His “trust-based” approach was roundly denounced – not only in the media, but also by some ‘experts’.
As Johan Anderberg notes, Sweden’s pandemic strategy was variously described as “deadly folly” (Guardian), “a disaster” (Time magazine) and “the world’s cautionary tale” (New York Times).
Since the end of the first wave, however, Sweden has been gradually creeping down the list of countries by official Covid death rate. As of 16th October, it was ranked 52nd – well below the European average.
Yet this actually understates how well Sweden has done. As I and others have consistently argued, number of Covid deaths per million is not the best measure of the pandemic’s impact on mortality. Far better is age-adjusted excess mortality.
Thanks to an ONS report published on Thursday, we now have age-adjusted excess mortality numbers for most of the countries in Europe, covering the entire period from January 2020 to June 2021.
As an aside, the report clearly states: “The best way of comparing the mortality impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic internationally is by looking at all-cause mortality compared with the five-year average.”
So what do the new numbers show? Sweden has had negative excess mortality. In other words, the level of mortality between January 2020 and June 2021 was lower than the five-year average. If this isn’t a vindication of Anders Tegnell’s approach, I don’t know what is.
The table below (taken from the ONS report) shows age-adjusted excess mortality from 3rd January 2020 to 18th June 2021. As you can see, Sweden is 8th from bottom, with a value of –2.3%.
Interestingly, the bottom six are all small, geographically peripheral countries (three islands, plus Denmark, Norway and Finland). This suggests that geography and border controls were key, and that lockdowns – in the absence of effective border controls – didn’t make much difference.
The top seven are all in Eastern Europe, which again suggests that some geographic factor is at work. What may account for high excess mortality in these countries is the fact that all of them missed the first wave, and hence had even bigger epidemics in the winter. Official Covid death rates are shown below:
If true, this would constitute strong evidence against the House of Commons’ report, which concluded that Britain should have tried to suppress the first wave. As I’ve noted before, this approach always carried the risk of creating an even bigger epidemic in the winter.
In any event, Anders Tegnell can give himself a well-deserved pat on the back. His country kept civil liberties largely intact, and ended up with one of Europe’s lowest death tolls. Well done, professor.
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Tuesday morning London Rd & Sunninghill Road
Windlesham
Coal Cheap Reliable
Wind Costly Chaotic
Got to be my favourite headline for a long time. The “manifesto is not credible”. Given our overlords just slap in any old crap in their manifestos, which they have zero obligation or intention to execute, for the sole purpose of hoodwinking the stupid masses into believing they have some say on the matter, I can only imagine what’s in it. So, something like this?
1. *Free holidays twice a year for everyone.
2. *Free lifetime subscription to a gym of your choice.
3. All gay people to be given a knighthood.
4. All heterosexual people to be given *free donkey rides on Blackpool beach.
5. Dividends to be paid to the public as the bank bailouts was done with public money.
6. Police to be made to police
* nothing is ‘free’, we just give you back a little bit of what you give us, but we know you’re all too stupid to understand that.
Disclaimer: we won’t do any of this… with the exception of giving knighthoods to gay people.
I was a bit puzzled as to why they even had a manifesto – wouldn’t the manifesto be to do all the things they said they’d do last time, but didn’t?
Rishi (laughing): “not sure what lies to feed to the masses this time?”
Tony (laughing): “Just give them the same bullsh*t as I told Boris to give them before”
More than ever it’s obvious he’s going through the motions.
The systematic and controlled demolition of the Conservative Party. I wrote a long post on it yesterday. It is an integral part of their Reset.
I suppose the demolition could perhaps be demolition for demolition’s sake but these days nothing happens by chance.
Sunak looks like he’s trying to lose, and not making a very good job of hiding it.
“The former tennis star said her mobile was stolen “clean out of her hands” while she waited for a taxi outside the station, the Mail reports.”
This has been happening for years in London to my personal knowledge, at least in Islington and Clerkenwell. It has happened to a few people I know and many times outside our office. People on pushbikes and mopeds. Sometimes they mount the pavement. Never look at your phone near the side of the road, and be very wary of any erratic behaviour by people on wheels, behind or in front of you.
It’s not surprising Scholz did so poorly in Germany if this is just a regular occurrence now in Germany. People deserve more from their government and to not feel they now live in a lawless land, where they can’t even go about their daily business in safety. I hope this woman pulls through, as the brief article doesn’t mention much on her condition. He won’t get deported though, because ‘human rights’;
”Frankfurt – Dramatic knife attack on the banks of the Main! A young Ukrainian woman (41) was stabbed there on Monday afternoon. The suspected perpetrator: a young Afghan man (19).
The police arrested the man, who according to BILD information had never been noticed by the police before, shortly afterwards. He had hidden from the police in a bush. The public prosecutor’s office is investigating him for attempted murder.
The young woman, who had fled to Germany from the war in Ukraine, had sat down on a park bench on the banks of the Main at around 1:55 p.m. Out of nowhere, the perpetrator approached from behind, grabbed her by the shoulder and stabbed her head and neck several times with a cutter knife.
The victim was able to free herself from the grip and ran away. But she didn’t make it; after only a few meters of running, she stumbled and fell. The knifeman didn’t give up, dove after her and stabbed the woman lying on the ground again.
Passers-by heard her screams and rushed to help. At that exact moment, the young man let go of the woman and fled in the direction of Oskar-von-Miller-Straße. The witnesses administered first aid and called the emergency services.
The police were notified and were quickly successful: the suspect, who had hidden in a bush on Oskar-von-Miller-Straße, was arrested. According to BILD information, he still had the cutter knife with him. According to BILD research, he is Mohammad Zaman A..
Senior Public Prosecutor Dominik Mies: “The civil courage of the passers-by is particularly worthy of praise. This and the excellent police work led to the quick arrest of the suspect, which may have prevented something worse from happening.”
A judge sent Mohammad Zaman A. into custody.”
https://www.bild.de/regional/frankfurt/frankfurt-am-main-messer-mann-sticht-ukrainerin-nieder-666807d5399857055e3fe33c?t_ref#fromWall
More evidence of the progress of Islamification in Europe, from Austria this time. There are now more Muslims than Catholics in Viennese primary schools. I think the idea of this man to teach lessons from an early age on what it means to live in a democracy is a good one. Personally, I’d be moving out of Vienna. It’s always the capital cities they focus on colonizing first isn’t it?
”They now represent the largest religious group in Vienna’s elementary schools: a third of the girls and boys are Muslims. Only one in five children is Catholic. Education Councilor Christoph Wiederkehr (NEOS) is therefore calling for a new school subject called “Democracy” instead of compulsory religious education.
The current figures were collected by the Education Directorate from public primary schools, and do not include the approximately ten percent of private schools. According to them, 35 percent of primary school students are Muslims, 26 percent are unaffiliated, 21 percent are Catholics, 13 percent are Orthodox, and two percent each are Protestant or belong to another denomination. If private schools are taken into account, the proportion of Muslims would probably fall slightly, sociologist Kenan Güngör told journalists on Tuesday.
In view of the figures, Wiederkehr renewed his call for compulsory lessons on “Living in a Democracy” for all students starting in the first year of primary school. This should teach democracy, values and ethics as well as knowledge of all recognized religions. A separate subject on religion should only be included in the timetable if requested.
In his opinion, the new democracy subject should be introduced across Austria instead of religion, even if the high number of Muslim children is primarily an urban phenomenon.
Among Muslims, there is a higher proportion of people who devalue other groups – such as Jews, LGBTIQ members or women. However, tendencies to devalue other groups are independent of religion – see right-wing extremism – and dealing with democracy and values is relevant for all children in Austria. “But of course you can set different priorities.”
Güngör sees several parallel developments in schools. Due to the high level of immigration from the Islamic-Arab region, more people are coming to the country who tend to be more religious – which in and of itself is not a major problem in most schools. However, in some locations, certain ideas of superiority exist due to religion.
At the same time, scepticism towards Islam has increased in society. “Muslim students notice this, of course.” They therefore feel more protected in schools with a high proportion of Muslims. But it is precisely there that these tendencies to devalue non-believers exist. “Here we have to think in both directions.” This polarization must be addressed.”
https://exxpress.at/wiener-volksschulkinder-jetzt-schon-mehr-muslime-als-katholiken/
Isn’t Hunter Biden’s conviction on gun charges – basically he lied about a detail of his personal life in his gun licence application – also lawfare?
Basically, would he even have been charged if he wasn’t Hunter Biden?
The purpose of the Hunter Biden case was to give credibility to the Trump cases. Basically it was saying, “Look, Hunter’s being prosecuted, this shows that we’re all equal in law, Trump wasn’t being targeted. He, like Hunter is at equal jeopardy if he breaks the law.”
I can’t put it better than Vivek Ramaswamy:
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: the Hunter Biden trial was a sham. It’s a smoke screen to legitimize the Trump conviction & to deflect attention from the Biden family’s actual likely crimes: selling off our foreign policy to make their family rich. Don’t fall for it.
Thanks for the post Michael. That explanation from Vivek is of course the correct one.
June temperatures at half the level of this time last year”
Apparently colder summer weather than normal is due to ‘natural variation’. So, hotter weather is due to…? Answers on a postcard.
My postcard answer is…
Global boiling.
When do I get my prize?
Hamas are evil pychopaths who realise that by provoking their opponents into brutal responses, they will gain more fanatical followers. Israel is currently playing into their hands.
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/a-beginners-guide-to-covid-part-13-does-the-vaccine-work/
Paul Weston with Part 13 of his guide to the C1984.
Do the “vaccines” work 😀😀🙂
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/11/reform-voters-could-leave-us-on-just-57-seats-says-tory-ad/
Fifty-seven seats. Far too many.