As reported daily infections fall once again, giving a temporary reprieve from calls for social restrictions to be re-imposed, the new ONS Infection Survey data published today shows record levels of prevalence in the country in the two weeks ending October 22nd.
One in 50 people in England or 2% of the population are estimated to have had coronavirus during that fortnight. In Wales it was around 2.5% or one in 40.
Importantly, this recent epidemic is almost exclusively in children, especially those aged 11-16, and to a lesser extent in their parents (aged 35-49). Prevalence in primary school children rose to around 4.1% by October 22nd while in secondary school children it was 9.1% or one in 11.
Since then reported infections in children have begun to fall, leading some experts to declare that, with an estimated 75% of the cohort now having been infected, “England has seen the peak of cases in children“.
Modelling for the Government is now predicting a persisting slump in infections going into the winter, with some estimates envisaging as few as 5,000 daily reported infections by Christmas.
This puts me in the unexpected position of being more pessimistic than SAGE, as I would be frankly amazed if there was no winter surge in Covid infections. We’ve seen before how SAGE models seem not to take sufficient account of seasonality, and this may be another example of that.
We learned last winter that it doesn’t help sceptics not to anticipate surges. We don’t want to be in the position where the Government’s resistance to lockdowns depends on these unusually rosy predictions of a Covid-free winter coming to pass. Besides, if Covid did abandon us this winter more than likely there would be some other seasonal virus to take its place.
The epidemic since June has been mostly in the young, initially in students and young adults, and latterly in those under 16. Oddly, the ‘freshers’ flu’ and university outbreaks that usually occur in September and October and dominated autumn 2020 are missing this year, at least with Covid. This autumn it’s been the turn of school children to have an epidemic, and just like last year, it has declined as we head into November – though this time the Government did not allow itself to be bumped into a lockdown (though not for lack of trying on the part of the health establishment).
What will the winter bring? There’s still no new variant emerging anywhere, but winter has always brought waves of respiratory illness. Take a look at the curve for flu in 2019-20 below. Big surge around the end of November, and then sudden sharp decline from the end of December, just like Covid in winter 2020-21.
You can really see the effect of the January 2020 lockdown to cut flu transmission there. What’s that you say – there was no lockdown in January 2020? But why then did infections suddenly plummet? I’m sure Neil Ferguson can tell me.
Winter will almost certainly bring its usual respiratory viral epidemic, and it’s still likely to be Covid this year. The NHS needs to be ready for that, though hopefully the vaccines will limit mortality (something potentially thrown into doubt by the recent Swedish study suggesting declining effectiveness against severe disease). But no, of course we shouldn’t lock down or re-impose restrictions on people because of this entirely foreseeable and expected eventuality.
If we’re still a free people somewhere under all this madness, we need to stop thinking that winter flu bugs are a reason to smother our social, cultural and economic life. It’s not good for our health.
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There is so, so much to be concerned about here. Riot police bussed in from other areas – who ordered that and why? What information or directives were they given and by whom? The policeman recorded as saying “arrest anyone” – well, was he acting under orders (if so, from whom?) or is he a renegade clearly unfit to be a police officer? I think there clearly needs to be a full public enquiry here – and senior police and politicians brought to account if they sought to pre-influence or prejudice what happened here.
But it’s not going to happen. If the government can’t be bothered to investigate why hundreds of children were repeatedly raped and abused by “men of a certain religion” while police, teachers and social workers stood by and did nothing then what hope has the average white person?
What sort of a hell-hole of a country have we suddenly decended into while the Prime Minister is more concerned about who pays for his suits, how he can get free tickets to Taylor Swift concerts and how he can jump the queue at tourist events? Have we truly become North Korea? That is a rhetorical question – we have.
There is no hope. Get out now while you can.
My sincere apologies to these “men of a certain religion” who were clearly “engaged in a bit of innocent fun” if I inadvertently misgendered them. I was taught at school that only men had beards, but clearly I was misinformed and am stupid as everybody know that a man with a beard may choose to self identify as a woman or any of another 100 or so genders at a time of their choosing. Anyone who disagrees is a far-right extremist.
I just don’t want to be thrown in the gulag for such a heinous crime as this.
But then again, we don’t need to be thrown in the gulag as the gulag is coming to us.
Join the FSU. As you haven’t mentioned the religion, but presumably not Christianity, they would have a definition problem if they came after you. It has recently been revealed that a large number of “allegedly Christian Priests” are also involved in such goings on. These have NOT been ignored, all very strange.
Another excellent edition. The treachery that affects many of our institutions is a malignancy that is proving, and will prove to be, very difficult to excise. Thank god for people like your guest, who have the wherewithal to challenge this iniquity.
The rest of us must support such people. We must also support those institutions, and media outlets, who on a daily basis, refuse to accept what is happening to this country.
There should be no conditions on peaceful protest.
I attended the farmers protest and noted the ridiculous number of vans full of police. There was noi need for them at all and they must have ben paid overtime for sleeping. Farmers, rural people and sympathisers cannot be put into any demographic associated with rioting or violence.
It was nothing more than state intimidation.
I hope he wins his damages claim. Remember to add the value of lost time and lost opportunities. Demand to see the evidence the officers relied upon when arresting and when threatening to charge with a further offence.
If he needs help with legal fees please start a fund raiser.
Sue the Independent as well as their report was insulting and offensive and likely libellous.
Go against the individual officers as well as the force itself.
The husband should make a complaint of GBH – actual bodily harm.
Even if the arresting officers had been wrongly informed about the circumstances they were not entitled to arrest without making enquiries. One question to this mn would have made it clear the warnings and rules had not been comunicated.
Good idea
I really do notthink living and working in harmony is compatible with multi-culturalism which the elites still embrace.
The unity seen in the USA cannot happen here because the elites and all their many agents regard diversity (which is a lack of harmony by definition) as a good thing, almost an essential aspect of Britain in the future.
On sentencing, I note that a Pakistani Muslim rapist of multiple offences was released after two and a half years whereas social media posts resulted in a similar sentence. Two tier or what!
And the rapist then costtax payers £lots appealing against deportation and he is still here.