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More Restrictions May Be Required This Winter, Says Professor Ferguson

by Michael Curzon
19 October 2021 6:39 PM

Professor Neil Ferguson is at it again. He predicts that a full lockdown will not be necessary this winter, but that the reintroduction of some forms of restrictions will be, warning that “we have currently higher levels of infection in the community than we’ve almost ever had during the pandemic”. The Times has the story.

The Imperial College scientist said that there was no “reason to panic” but urged people to be cautious about social contact.

He said it was “critical we accelerate the booster programme” with millions of eligible older people yet to have a top-up jab despite concerns about waning immunity.

Last year hospital admissions were doubling every 10 days. At present, the rate is about five weeks and some believe outbreaks in schools will burn out before then, causing cases to fall again.

Ferguson told Today on BBC Radio 4: “I think we need to be on the case, and we do need to prioritise the [booster] vaccination programme but we’re not in the same position as last year.”

He added: “I don’t think we’re looking at another lockdown… the worst case here are demands on the NHS… it’s very unlikely we’ll see anything like the levels of deaths we saw last year, for instance.

“Coming into the winter, there may be a plan B which needs to be implemented, which involves some rolling back of measures, but I doubt that we’ll ever get close to the lockdown we were in in January of this year.”

The Government’s official ‘Plan B’ involves the return of working from home and compulsory masks, plus the introduction of vaccine passports. Ministers have been confident that this will not be needed but concern has been mounting as cases rise towards 50,000 a day.

“People need to be aware that we have currently higher levels of infection in the community than we’ve almost ever had during the pandemic – for the last three or four months we’ve been up at well over 1% of the population infected at any point in time,” Ferguson said.

He said the Government was “very clear that it wanted to move away from social distancing measures, but it’s notable, clearly, that most western European countries have kept in place more control measures, vaccine mandates, mask-wearing mandates, and tend to have lower case numbers and certainly not case numbers which are going up as fast as we’ve got”.

Professor Paul Hunter, of the University of East Anglia, said he was not “overly worried” by case numbers, pointing out: “We’re doing far more testing of children than most or all European countries and at least 50% of our cases are in children, mostly teenagers.” …

Modellers are finding it increasingly difficult to know what will happen next, given huge uncertainties about the number of unvaccinated people, how fast immunity wanes and how people will behave over the winter.

Worth reading in full.

Tags: LockdownNeil FergusonWinter

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87 Comments
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Beowulf
Beowulf
3 years ago

“Modellers are finding it increasingly difficult to know what will happen next…”

They’ve never known.

135
0
Lockdown Sceptic
Lockdown Sceptic
3 years ago
Reply to  Beowulf

We need to show our resistance to the likes of Ferguson as much a possible

Friday 22nd October 11am
Yellow Boards Event – Stand by the Road
Tesco Superstore
17 County Ln, Warfield, Bracknell RG42 3JP
Telegram http://t.me/astandintheparkbracknell

24
-2
Cane Corso
Cane Corso
3 years ago
Reply to  Lockdown Sceptic

Rebels at Roundabouts
Friday 22nd October, 5-6.30pm
Blackheath Gate, Greenwich Park

Beowulf is so right, but more so we need to show our greater relevance than our supine Parliament.

4
-1
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
3 years ago
Reply to  Beowulf

Perhaps they are getting it even more wrong?

It seems as ever when the models and reality diverge the reality needs changing. this is post-normal science.

5
0
PhantomOfLiberty
PhantomOfLiberty
3 years ago

Maybe he is getting scared of his reputation.

Last edited 3 years ago by PhantomOfLiberty
13
0
fla56
fla56
3 years ago
Reply to  PhantomOfLiberty

LOL what reputation? between buggy code, p*sspoor assumptions and sneaking out to bonk his mistress he shredded it months ago

4
0
Trabant
Trabant
3 years ago

Why the fuck is this charlatan still given airtime? Oh yes because he’s a useful idiot and fully in step with “The Narrative”

110
0
isobar
isobar
3 years ago
Reply to  Trabant

It’s simple, he is one of Gate’s mates.

42
0
PhantomOfLiberty
PhantomOfLiberty
3 years ago
Reply to  isobar

Yes, he is director of the GatesGavi funded Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium which is paid huge bucks essentially to drum up business https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/hosted-initiatives-and-groups/vaccine-impact-modelling-consortium/

43
0
Cane Corso
Cane Corso
3 years ago
Reply to  PhantomOfLiberty

He’s also Director of the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute at Imperial (sic) College.

3
0
bOrgkilLaH1of7
bOrgkilLaH1of7
3 years ago
Reply to  isobar

On the subject of our global overlord Gates

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNAwUxZ5nfw

1628927994516.png
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jennyw
jennyw
3 years ago
Reply to  isobar

Gates, Schwab, Von de Leyen, and all the rest of the puppets and useful idiots.

cast.jpg
4
-1
Anti_socialist
Anti_socialist
3 years ago
Reply to  jennyw

Says it all in one handy graphic.

1
0
rayc
rayc
3 years ago
Reply to  Trabant

Simple, putting on the show a bumbling idiot hated by everybody brings more clicks/views/advertisement revenue. We have a similar clown down here in Germany, fond of warning about apocalypse (surname starts with L) without any pause – and he gets the exact same treatment by media (there’s been hardly a single day on which he did not give a doomsday interview to someone, and his greatest hope is to become the next health minister).

33
-1
sjonesy1999
sjonesy1999
3 years ago

For crying out loud go away Ferguson.

50
0
RickH
RickH
3 years ago

I had to laugh at this one :

“Modellers are finding it increasingly difficult to know what will happen next,”

… given that the accuracy has always been around zero.

I guess that we need to know that the Imperial Clown is still getting airtime.

But ….. ???

72
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OliveTrees
OliveTrees
3 years ago
Reply to  RickH

If in doubt, create some really big, scary numbers.

29
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rayc
rayc
3 years ago

Ah yes, the good old “we must introduce more measures because others have introduced more measures”, the brilliant policy which has worked so extremely well since the very beginning of this pandemic.

In politics this well-established doctrine is known as Race to the Bottom, and in academic circles it goes by Mutually Assured Dumbassity (MAD).

Last edited 3 years ago by rayc
58
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HelenaHancart
HelenaHancart
3 years ago
Reply to  rayc

Yep, this why face nap mandates were brought in…”because other countries were doing it! ” And none of this worked last time, if you believe any of this crap was meant to work…but, like the dangerous lunatics they are they’ll keep doing it anyway, knowing damn well what the result will be!

22
0
Susan
Susan
3 years ago
Reply to  rayc

Their policies have worked so extremely well! You must adjust your thinking and appreciate that they are hell bent on destruction.

13
0
186NO
186NO
3 years ago
Reply to  rayc

Neil sum game

1
0
ebygum
ebygum
3 years ago

Saw this in the Telegraph and the comments were great…they were so good they closed down the comment section within a couple of hours! So I never got chance to add to it!! HaHaHa.

69
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karenovirus
karenovirus
3 years ago
Reply to  ebygum

I nearly bought a copy of the Telegraph on Sunday but thought better of it. Closing down comments is hardly the way to endear itself to readers.

13
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HumanRightsForever
HumanRightsForever
3 years ago

“Cases are growing, because boosters are stalling, if we don’t get boosters rolled, we will have to take measures, if we don’t take measures, we will have cases growing, blah, blah, blah” Yawn.

64
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amanuensis
amanuensis
3 years ago
Reply to  HumanRightsForever

One of the many things you’ve got to watch out for with politicians, is them saying that they had the right policy all along and the reason it didn’t work is because it didn’t go far enough — hence needing more of the same to ‘solve the problem’.

This is exactly why we’re where we are — they’ve bet on vaccinations as the saviour and the more they fail to solve the problem the more they’ll demand are vaccinated / boosted.

You’d think that people would realise this sort of thing as a standard behaviour of politicians and call them out on it, but people never do seem to realise, and instead side with the politicians in demanding more of the same. Oh well, looks like we’re stuck with them.

28
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karenovirus
karenovirus
3 years ago
Reply to  amanuensis

Oh yes, vaccines, the Cavalry just around the corner to save us as Matt Wankok kept telling us before his timely departure.

11
0
186NO
186NO
3 years ago
Reply to  HumanRightsForever

The “vaccine” has not worked so let’s increase the dose; sounds like the theory that GPs etc use to dispense anti-depressants ” So Mr/Mrs X , I see you are still of a low mood with your current dose, let’s cycle up your medication to improve the outcome”.

And we all “know” that the UK as elsewhere is very heavily over medicated with SSRI…..all because of a community of medics driven by the “Herd Instinct”.

6
0
Ron Carlin
Ron Carlin
3 years ago

It is so comforting to have the mad modeller’s predictions, which we know will be out by a Fergu (the new epidemiological constant invented by him), and as long as we do the maths (just divide his doomsday forecasts by 10), we should be ready for what awaits us.

29
0
Peter W
Peter W
3 years ago
Reply to  Ron Carlin

Love the “Fergu” as a measure of failure!
As you say, always divide his “forecasts” by at least 10 times.

1
0
DanClarke
DanClarke
3 years ago

Not listening, not interested, he’s never been right yet

38
0
RickH
RickH
3 years ago

“People need to be aware that we have currently higher levels of infection in the community than we’ve almost ever had during the pandemic “

Sane conclusion : Jabs and other bullshit do f. all. Ignore Public Health significance seekers.

Insane conclusion : Let’s do more pointlessness. Listen to Fergusson

45
0
Lilacblue
Lilacblue
3 years ago
Reply to  RickH

Deleted

Last edited 3 years ago by Lilacblue
0
0
RickH
RickH
3 years ago
Reply to  Lilacblue

It’s not good news until it translates into a different perception.

0
0
Dodderydude
Dodderydude
3 years ago
Reply to  RickH

Maybe it’s because I’m tired but is it just me who reads his statement and thinks that it’s not even grammatically correct? I presume to know what he is trying to say but I would have failed O level English language had I come out with such a disjointed combination of words. Presumably he had time in advance to think about it which makes it even more confounding.

Last edited 3 years ago by Dodderydude
9
0
OliveTrees
OliveTrees
3 years ago
Reply to  Dodderydude

I think living in a perpetual state of hysteria has an affect on the grammar part of a person’s brain.

9
0
Dodderydude
Dodderydude
3 years ago
Reply to  OliveTrees

It occurred to me that it is the sort of sentence someone with dyslexia might come up with. Apparently “many children have dyslexia and dyscalculia together”. Dyscalculia is the mathematical equivalent of dyslexia. In all seriousness, that could well explain a lot.

8
0
JayBee
JayBee
3 years ago

Count me, and millions of others, out.
#UnitedDisobedience

32
0
PoshPanic
PoshPanic
3 years ago

Ferguson is a laughing stock in his own profession. He’s now being openly mocked and frequently disparaged by his peers online. Numerous scientists in interviews have referred to “scientists doing questionable modelling”, or similar. Everyone knows who they’re talking about. How much longer can the likes of Imperial stand behind this guy?

44
0
186NO
186NO
3 years ago
Reply to  PoshPanic

ICL are the dam wall protecting this idiot – the weight of the scientific criticism – “water”- filling the lake behind that wall is evidently growing; we all now what happens when dams, holding back lakes when full, burst – they take out a lot of innocent people ( with apologies to Chastise/617 casualties)

2
0
Anti_socialist
Anti_socialist
3 years ago

“we have currently higher levels of infection in the community than we’ve almost ever had during the pandemic”

That doesn’t say much for the vaccines, does it.

42
0
Paul B
Paul B
3 years ago

Italian news blackout is almost complete, they are still marching though!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rx8Th581wJI

20
0
PoshPanic
PoshPanic
3 years ago
Reply to  Paul B

Watching the news nowadays is like watching Punch and Judy. Everyone has the internet, so it’s easy to see what’s going on. And easy to see the readers have a hand stuck up their arse.

16
0
realarthurdent
realarthurdent
3 years ago
Reply to  PoshPanic

In the old days the news told you what actually happened and you had to work out what to think of it.
Now the news tells you what you should think and you have to work out what actually happened.

45
0
Norman
Norman
3 years ago

“we have currently higher levels of infection in the community than we’ve almost ever had during the pandemic”, and we also have some of the highest levels of asymptomatic testing we have almost ever had.

28
0
Norman
Norman
3 years ago

Looking at the gov stats, I see that “cases” have dropped significantly in Scotland where the kids went back to school a couple of weeks before England. Thus I confidently predict that they will drop here too, especially given the impact of half term.

8
0
thinkcriticall
thinkcriticall
3 years ago

Axiom: ‘In order to advance a communist ideological belief system, the rulers must *pretend* not to know things’.

Individually, in groups, or in the systems they construct, that axiom has always been true.

9
-1
Julian
Julian
3 years ago
Reply to  thinkcriticall

Not sure if that’s confined to just communism, probably applies to any belief system based on lies. But it’s very true. They know what they are doing.

10
0
CynicalRealist
CynicalRealist
3 years ago
Reply to  Julian

Indeed – what we are seeing is fascism rather than communism.

13
-2
RickH
RickH
3 years ago
Reply to  CynicalRealist

It’s anti-democratic totalitarianism – which is sui generis, and can emerge from behind a range of fronts, be they communist, fascist, nationalist or vaguely populist or paternalistic. In this case, and in this country it’s actually Toryism that is the operative front.

6
-2
Nearhorburian
Nearhorburian
3 years ago
Reply to  RickH

Oh God, you’re still spouting this crap.

The only opposition – feeble, I admit – to this tyranny in the HOC has come from Torys.

Last edited 3 years ago by Nearhorburian
7
-1
Nearhorburian
Nearhorburian
3 years ago
Reply to  CynicalRealist

Did Mussolini support the replacement of the indigenous Italian population with Third Worlders?

Did he want to close down cafes, cinemas, local shops, theatres and restaurants?

3
-1
RickH
RickH
3 years ago
Reply to  thinkcriticall

This is ‘communism’ the same way that Ferguson’s models are accurate predictions.

9
-1
Julian
Julian
3 years ago

Bring it on. Lockdowns and boosters forever. People need to have their noses rubbed in it to understand they’ve been conned. A general lockdown will help us. The nightmare scenario is vaccine passports everywhere. I think they are sadly too smart to close stuff again. The smart play is to demonise the unvaxxed.

29
0
I am Spartacas
I am Spartacas
3 years ago

 ‘Of all ignorance, the ignorance of the educated is the most dangerous. Not only are educated people likely to have more influence, they are the last people to suspect that they don’t know what they are talking about when they go outside their narrow fields.’ –
Thomas Sowell

Last edited 3 years ago by Ember von Drake-Dale 22
33
0
Julian
Julian
3 years ago
Reply to  I am Spartacas

I doubt he’s ignorant. He’s getting away with talking shit and being listened to. Why would he stop?

12
0
OliveTrees
OliveTrees
3 years ago

Vaccine passport: a device used in early 21st century society to segregate unvaccinated people from the people who were given an ineffective vaccine that didn’t actually stop them catching or spreading covid. This device was also used to give the appearance of “doing something” while nudging the populous into carrying around digital identification, and into compliance with government commands. The devices were eventually abandoned after the Second Pandemic War.

61
0
AN other lockdown sceptic
AN other lockdown sceptic
3 years ago
Reply to  OliveTrees

Awesome!

13
0
Old Maid
Old Maid
3 years ago

Oh, do naff orf, Ferguson.

16
0
Cecil B
Cecil B
3 years ago

Ferguson is a cunt

Apologies, but there is no other way of saying that

54
0
186NO
186NO
3 years ago
Reply to  Cecil B

Tempted to say he is not as useful as that but I won’t for fear of being branded a sexist

4
0
Cecil B
Cecil B
3 years ago

How come people can become infected if they are vaccinated?

Impossible surely?

18
0
Rogerborg
Rogerborg
3 years ago

Can we dig up Jimmy Saville and ask him what to do about child sexual exploitation?

21
0
Anti_socialist
Anti_socialist
3 years ago
Reply to  Rogerborg

Didn’t the bbc just do that?

6
0
Moderate Radical
Moderate Radical
3 years ago

Good heavens. Imagining still listening to this crank. How on earth is this cretin (yes, philosophically speaking, he’s a cretin) still gaining airtime?

This inept specimen stands as a single indictment of our society.

22
0
Star
Star
3 years ago

So they’re trying the same “Don’t panic” move that they tried with car fuel.

Ferguson doesn’t panic about restrictions anyway – he just breaks them while telling everyone else to obey them.

11
0
RW
RW
3 years ago

Since 2020/03/31, 304,655,729 Sars-CoV2 test have been done in the UK, statistically this means every person living in this country has been tested 4.53 times. 27% of these tests have been done in the 92 days since freedom day. But these represent only 15.89% of the 579 days since testing started. Up to and including 2021/07/18, on average, 562,980.32 tests were done per day. From 2021/07/19, this increased by a factor of almost 1.6 (1.59) to an average of 894,331.55 per day. This exceeds the number of tests performed in every other major western European country (France, Germany, Italy, Spain) by a margin.

Could this perhaps be related to the higher case numbers in the UK and not enforced mask wearing and vaccination passes elsewhere?

20
0
caipirinha17
caipirinha17
3 years ago
Reply to  RW

Nearly 900k tests a day is a lot. Who exactly is getting tested? I think we should be provided with this information.
Also…. How many haven’t ever been tested? Apart from me 😉

9
0
John001
John001
3 years ago
Reply to  caipirinha17

No, never. I once wore a face covering in summer 2020 but then read up on it and realised it was a con.

8
0
RW
RW
3 years ago
Reply to  caipirinha17

Me neither. Some people have to get tested at work or in school. And the remainder are probably a rather small (compared to the number of people) set of volunteer repeat offenders who absolutely want have a pandemic going on.

6
0
Anti_socialist
Anti_socialist
3 years ago
Reply to  RW

Well i’ve never submitted to one so some poor smuck has had more than 5!

Last edited 3 years ago by Anti_socialist
10
0
realarthurdent
realarthurdent
3 years ago

In the absence of a functioning democracy, in the absence of any actual opposition to the Government, and in the absence of any members of Parliament to represent our views, and given all of the weapons (literal and metaphorical) which the State holds against us, our sole responsibility as citizens is to resist, not comply, not co-operate, not collaborate and in general cause as much friction for central and local government as we possibly can.

23
0
NonCompliant
NonCompliant
3 years ago

“we have currently higher levels of infection in the community than we’ve almost ever had during the pandemic”

Great ‘vaccines’ aren’t they?

20
0
Hopeless
Hopeless
3 years ago

Charlatan on the loose again. The BBC’s favourite fantasist.

8
0
gooner2826
gooner2826
3 years ago

Sheer lunacy to think our lives will probably be dictated by this nutter and his cronies under the pretense of protecting the NHS.

Imagine HAVING to pay for a service, but then when this service gets used as per what we’re paying for, we then get locked down to prevent us from using the service that we’re paying for.
Oh and when we’re at it, because you used that service you already pay for we’re going to have to charge you more now – because you used it.

Shame on us all eh

18
0
Dorian_Hawkmoon
Dorian_Hawkmoon
3 years ago

Is this man a doctor? No. He’s a maths geek. So why the hell is this goon shooting his gob off about health matters? Worse, why is anyone paying attention to his entrail reading prognostications, let alone the bloody Govt who frankly should know better but would rather outsource their decisions and claim immunity from blame? Get a grip, Johnson and stop acting the clown.

11
0
RW
RW
3 years ago
Reply to  Dorian_Hawkmoon

This guy isn’t a maths geek, either. He’s a self-taught C++-programmer with no background in computer science (not per se something bad — my official job designation is senior software engineer and I’m self taughy as well) whose main occupation is forever working on a single program claimed to model pandemic spread by simulating population behaviour in a way he pulled out of his ass.

This guy isn’t really an expert in anything except this particular piece of crap code.

14
0
Anti_socialist
Anti_socialist
3 years ago
Reply to  RW

That’s a little harsh, didn’t he get his data from that esteemed impartial font of knowledge, Wikipedia?

5
0
StoppingtoThink
StoppingtoThink
3 years ago

Can’t help thinking that masks, lockdowns, and this man’s finger in the air guesses are all about as useful as each other, i.e. not very.

8
0
Stephensceptic
Stephensceptic
3 years ago

This has seriously reached peak farce.

Zero evidence that restrictions “work” but lots of evidence of the harm they cause. But let’s do more of them.

God designed a perfectly effective breathing system so let’s cover it with a cloth mask to stop it working properly. With zero evidence that this impacts anything.

Vaccines are awesome and are so good that you need to keep taking them again and again.

I believe that this whole Covid theatre is sheer garbage. My own views increasingly align with Sam Bailey and “Virus Mania”.

Western “science” is fixated on viruses as the cause of illness and is programmed to find them and show them as the cause of everything. This suits big business interests that can then sell “remedies” and “vaccines”. But the evidence behind it is shaky, at best. A giant wrong turn.

In my opinion, we do not really know what causes the illness that has been identified as Covid. The “virus” may simply be a by product of it rather than a “cause”. The so called science is deep down based on a deck of cards where more assumption is piled on more assumptions.

History will equate what we are doing with bloodletting in the Middle Ages. Or the great moment in Star Trek IV (sorry this ages me…) where Dr McCoy encounters a patient in a 1980s hospital. On being told of the treatment he decries the barbarism of it and produces a simple gadget that he just waves at the patient, who is then cured.

I think that in reality illness is caused by toxins and many harmful substances in our environment. The true cause of Covid is actually not known. Heresy, of course.

Last edited 3 years ago by Stephensceptic
3
-2
RTSC
RTSC
3 years ago

Most have kept controls ….. except Sweden, Denmark and a range of American States all of which have far fewer deaths/infections than those who have kept controls.

But that’s irrelevant to Lockdown Ferguson.

5
0
maxtwee
maxtwee
3 years ago

They should try the radical practice of actually treating ill cov patients early as out patients with known, effective protocols such a as used by AAPS, FLCCC,etc instead of STILL doing nothing. If they did this from the start >85% of the deaths would have been avoided and we wouldn’t be in this mess. This is medical malpractice and the heads of NHS, Ferguson,sage and this government should be arrested and charged with mass murder.

7
0
sskinner
sskinner
3 years ago

More lockdowns says ‘Professor’ Fergusson?
Thats not like him to be so alarmist.

3
0
Anonymous
Anonymous
3 years ago

‘Authority’ can try imposing restrictions but whether or not they happen depends on whether or not we do them.
Rules only stand if majority comply with them and there’s nothing except personal choice that stops them being not complied with.
I and others learnt that that’s the way it is when we were children. ‘Grown-ups’ in our sphere never admitted it was so but most had the sense to not try to deny it in the face of the proof we kids provided

4
0
SimCS
SimCS
3 years ago

Er!
Who’s asking Ferguson?
Why are we asking Ferguson?
Why hasn’t Boris, SAGE, etc. twigged yet that Ferguson just has no clue, and *IS* the danger?

1
0
John
John
3 years ago

“Sajid Javid says winter poses the “greatest threat” to the recovery from Covid, with cases rising.
He adds that case numbers could go as high as 100,000 per day – but that the NHS is performing with “distinction”.” (news conference as reported by BBC)
I presume the numbers are a Ferguson factors.

1
0
Banjones
Banjones
3 years ago

I haven’t read this, but I just wanted to say that I don’t give a BUGGER what this dishonourable and dishonoured, discredited, disgusting piece of rancid offal has to say. Why on earth is he still being quoted?

4
0
Nymeria
Nymeria
3 years ago

Can’t think of anything profound or intelligent to say, other than “fuck off, Ferguson”.

3
0

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Electric Car Bursts into Flames on Driveway and Engulfs £550,000 Family Home

25

Teenage Girl Banned by the Football Association For Asking Transgender Opponent “Are You a Man?” Wins Appeal With Help of Free Speech Union

18

What Does David Lammy Mean by a State?

27

NHS Nurse “Forced Out for Mocking Trans Flag” to Sue Hospital

10 May 2025

Hugely Influential Covid Vaccine Study Claiming the Jabs Saved Millions of Lives Torn to Shreds in Medical Journal

10 May 2025

Teenage Girl Banned by the Football Association For Asking Transgender Opponent “Are You a Man?” Wins Appeal With Help of Free Speech Union

10 May 2025

Reflections on Empire, Papacy and States

10 May 2025

Ed Miliband’s Housing Energy Plan Will Decimate the Rental Market and Send Rents Spiralling

10 May 2025

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