It’s official: I am spouting misinformation about the Covid vaccines. Full Fact – the Google, Facebook and George Soros-funded outfit that Ofcom has said it relies on to tell it what to censor regarding COVID-19 – has ‘fact checked‘ my recent piece on PHE data showing negative vaccine effectiveness in August and branded it “incorrect”.
Writer Leo Benedictus – henceforth to be known as the Oracle – takes particular issue with the headline, which he says “falsely claims that a report from Public Health England (PHE) shows the COVID-19 vaccines having ‘negative effectiveness’ in the over-40s”.
“This is not true about the COVID-19 vaccines – nor is it true that the PHE report shows this,” the Oracle declares. Except it is. The data contained in the report is completely clear, and the calculation of unadjusted vaccine effectiveness from that data is straightforward.
According to the Oracle, however, this is not a valid way of estimating vaccine effectiveness. Benedictus quotes the PHE report stating as much – “The vaccination status of cases, inpatients and deaths is not the most appropriate method to assess vaccine effectiveness and there is a high risk of misinterpretation” – and notes that I too quote this. What he fails to acknowledge, though, is that I also examine the reason PHE gives for this claim and counter it.
The only substantive reason PHE gives that vaccine effectiveness might be underestimated in its data is that “vaccination has been prioritised in individuals who are more susceptible or more at risk of severe disease”. In other words, the high-risk are over-represented in the vaccinated and this skews the sample. I countered that the large majority of the older age groups are now vaccinated so this bias should be very much reduced. Of course, we also need to ask why, if this is supposedly the key confounder of the data presented, we are not also provided with the necessary data on risk categories so that it can be duly quantified and accounted for.
Benedictus reiterates PHE’s claim that vaccine effectiveness should only be estimated via the published studies. However, as I noted in my article, these studies are riddled with serious problems and inconsistencies that bring their findings into question. They are also out of date since they don’t cover the Delta surge, which is the first time the vaccines have really been stress-tested in the U.K.
Benedictus spends half the ‘fact check’ in a bizarre attempt to argue that my vaccine effectiveness calculation is wrong because I used the data PHE itself used for the size of the unvaccinated population. He points out it is different to the ONS figures on this. Er, take that one up with PHE, Leo.
It does seem at times that Benedictus is fact-checking the PHE report rather than my article. At one point he takes the report to task because one of its charts sowed confusion as it “seemed to show for the month in question (August 9th to September 5th) that people in their 40s, 50s, 60s and 70s were more likely to test positive for Covid if they had been vaccinated than if they hadn’t”.
Except the chart didn’t ‘seem’ to show that; it did show that. Again though we are told that this data does “not give a reliable estimate of vaccine effectiveness” because of biases in the samples.
But who defines what makes an estimate of vaccine effectiveness ‘reliable’ enough to be permitted without being labelled false? All vaccine efficacy estimates have limitations arising from the limitations of the data, including those produced by PHE. I was careful to acknowledge the limitations of the estimates I was making, saying they were unadjusted for risk factors – though argued that this shouldn’t matter so much anymore given high coverage. There’s also the point that being high-risk may affect the risk of serious disease and death but there’s no reason to think it will have an impact on infection rates (save for the small number of immuno-compromised).
The unmistakable impression here is of a gatekeeping exercise by the Government and its outriders to ensure it controls the concept of vaccine effectiveness and no one unauthorised is allowed to make an estimate of it. Thus the availability of the data is carefully controlled and we only get a month at a time and without the additional data that would allow us to control for the supposed biases that the report tells us the data includes and which ‘invalidate’ any attempt to make an unauthorised calculation of vaccine effectiveness.
None of this concept-policing does anything to alter the facts, however. In recent weeks reported infection rates have been higher in the double vaccinated than in the unvaccinated for the over-40s. That means that, for this period, (unadjusted) vaccine effectiveness is negative in those age groups.
PHE has published two new reports since my article and in each the unadjusted vaccine efficacy has declined further. Here is the table using data from the latest report, covering August 23rd to September 19th (the related chart from the report itself is above).
It shows that in the two weeks since my article the vaccine effectiveness has dropped further, with unadjusted vaccine effectiveness in the over-40s now hitting as low as minus-53% among people in their 60s. This means that, on this data for this age group, the double vaccinated experienced a 53% higher reported infection rate than the unvaccinated in the past month. And that’s a fact.
Stop Press: Professor Norman Fenton and Professor Martin Neil on the Probability and Risk site have used age-adjusted all-cause mortality to estimate vaccine effectiveness and found that mortality rates are currently higher in the vaccinated than the unvaccinated.
Stop Press 2: Professor David Paton has produced a good Twitter thread responding to one of the more well-informed critics of this (and other) pieces citing the PHE data.
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Ah the Ministry of Truth in action. Your writings, online presence and soul will be eliminated from the universe unless you comply. I prescribe 28 days of Ludovico technique for you to get you back on track.
Ministry of Truth hides the Truth
30 facts you NEED to know: Your Covid Cribsheet
https://off-guardian.org/2021/09/22/30-facts-you-need-to-know-your-covid-cribsheet/#i
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Excellent Off-Guardian link LS- thanks.
Yes. Should be in every Rationalist’s back-pack.
Yes, thanks for the link. The following point in it reminds me of a conversation I had with a neighbour in the good old days of April/May 2020.
5. Average age of “Covid death” is greater than the average life expectancy.
When I stated this fact, said neighbour angrily said ‘where did you get that from?’. To which I replied ‘the ONS, go and look it up for yourself’.
This all happened at a time when I wrongly believed that once such facts became widely known, this shit show would finish pronto. How wrong I was. I can’t see the anti-truth Covid cult dying for a long long time now.
Mind you, I still like to fry cult member’s brains with facts like this. I can often see their brains exploding before my eyes.
Yes. Hence Mr Johnson’s comment in the Whatsapp msgs leaked by Dominic Cummings: “‘Get Covid and live longer…’ We might need to re-frame this, guys”
Or words to that effect.
I find simple denial is the most common response to counter-facts. That’ why the propaganda lies will continue – it’s been far more successful than anyone might have predicted.
I am truly amazed at people I thought would have rapidly cottoned on to the nonsense we are/were being fed yet get angry and aggressive if I attempt to point out inaccuracies. Previously rational, educated professional people seem to have lost the plot. Including members of my own family.
Thank you LS, keep up the good work. I sent the Off Guardian link to my sister in NZ who has been convinced, along with the majority of other KIWIS that human life expectancy around the globe has been reduced by 2 years by COVID. They ARE pretty isolated from reality there tbf!
Blake Park Bandstand Bridgwater Somerset –
Sundays from 10 am
Meet friends – keep sane – we are awake.
Telegram Connecting Warriors
Even if there was marginal benefit this would be a lunatic way to run a health policy.
Facts.
The fly in the ointment of ‘the narrative’.
The game is up Whitty, Vallance, Van Tam, Fauci, Gates, Johnson, Hancock, Javid, Andrews, Biden, Macron, Ardern, Adhanom… Stand down, because you are only going to make things worse for yourselves.
And when the hole you’re in us about to break through into Hell, you’d best stop digging.
I wonder if the person downvoting doesn’t believe they are all going to Hell.
No need for the fictional Hell. We’re in the real one.
No – the game isn’t up by any measure that I can see.
The genie is out of the bottle now. More and more prominent people are coming forward and challenging the narrative. 18 months of data is rolling in and the catastrophic effects of the ‘vaccines’ is undeniable. Backed up by an increasing number of personal testimonies.
The game is up, but their hubris won’t allow them to see it.
Sorry, but I strongly disagree. Why else has the egregious jabbing of the 12+ group happened with so little opposition? Why am I not doing fairly normal things because I won’t contemplate being stabbed? How come some 80% of the population has consented to such a needless assault? Why, despite some lessening, am I still seeing masks around?
Yes, they have done a real job on the population using fear as the ultimate persuader that the virus is coming to get us all and only they and their precious lockdowns and jib-jabs can save us.
In the Land of Oz, we have police helicopters harrassing picnickers, counter-terrorism Robocops assaulting builders labourers and old ladies, ‘non-lethal’ rubber bullets, political prisoners accused of ‘incitement’, curfews, jobs dependent on taking an experimental gene therapy treatment, etc. etc. yet, still, in the state of Victoria (or should that be Belfast circa the 1970s) only a minority of the trembling populace are prepared to ditch lockdown, masks and the curbs on civil liberties.
That minority is 42%, however, which gives us some hope so it may be true that it’s always darkest just before the dawn and everyone is going to come to their senses sooner rather than later but it may also be true that it’s always darkest just before everything goes completely black.
Phil
Adelaide
Dear Phil from Adelaide – it’s like we’ve been story boarding the bad sci fi movie here in UK and your homeland has gone into full production- nightmare does not cut it. Most of my close ‘friends’ in Melbourne are silent and a few have blanked me (infantile)… my Melbourne based bro and his family just pretend I’m nuts – etc. But yay to the 42 per centers who read, watch, listen and think. I weep at what you’re going through – stay calm, sane, grounded and get that we are with you. Love to you and yours, Ruth
Thanks for those best wishes, Ruth. I’m fairly resilient, and get some black humour out of the superstitious absurdities of ‘social distancing’ all around me down here but every day I leave the house it feels like I’ve been teleported onto Planet Zog where something sinister is afoot. It’s hard not to feel down at times. My virtual DS friends ‘oop north truly help to make up for my oldest and dearest ‘friends’ from uni days down here who have had a bad case of Covid hysteria, and intolerance of dissent, for over a year now.
I need a project – how about turning that 42% into a majority! I like the sound of that.
I live in Scotland under the rule of Nicola the Tyrant and we still have masks and social distancing and other constraints. My car is going in for a service next week and has to be checked in beforehand. The rules and regulations around dropping the thing off at the garage are beyond mad – masks, social distancing, limited numbers in the garage, remove all personal belonging from car etc. Sadly there are many people who are still terrified about this ‘lethal’ virus and think this kind of thing is eminently sensible. I truly despair.
I have sympathy for BBiM’s comments, because for those who can think for themselves, the game is truly up for a long list of people complicit in this plandemic scam; add Soros, Zuckerberg, Blair – they are all part of a connected elite who are disconnected from the lives of ordinary folks. Still waiting to hear what the FDA disclose about the ingredients of the Pfizer jab…..
Sadly I think RickH is right in a more meaningful way; whilst the “tide” is turning it is going to take a lot more for part of the MSM to break ranks; even then I also think that a sizeable chunk of the sheeple will not be willing to admit ” we’ve been had”.
Must keep resisting. “We need more pilots” ( AVM Sir Hugh Dowding, circa August 1940)
Hubris leads to nemesis. Hopefully
Quite. In England the Fausists Whitty, Vallance and co are succeeding in getting children to take an experimental vaccine with known bad effects at no benefit to themselves. They are suggesting that this is kind – and no one laughs.
Boris remains fully captured and is on side with the climate agenda.
Across the world the vaccines are being forced on the West, and Victoria, praised by Gates, has turned into a Chinese dictatorship. Canada has re elected a tyrant.
On the other side, some are beginning to waken. The fact that the “vaxxed” get Covid has surprised, but not fully wakened, many. Resistance has begun, but it is being easily suppressed. Many people will die and be injured before opinion alters amongst the hypnotised masses.
“Boris remains fully captured and is on side with the climate agenda.”
Cart and horse. The wider climate/green agenda is being sequestered by the new fascist movement.
“Resistance has begun, but it is being easily suppressed.”
Precisely. The UK Column today has had some interesting footage on the militarization of civil society.
Well known that there’s less crime in places belief in hell is higher. For what it’s worth. And as I stated previously, a society that abandons belief in God will see a moral breakdown within 100 years.
The game should be up. People should be taking notice but they aren’t.
I was talking to a waitress in a coffee shop the other day. She said that she was having to work when she was supposed to be off because so many people were ill with covid even though they were double jabbed as was she. She then went on to moan about the fact that her daughter didn’t want to get the vaccine at school and she hoped that the school would listen to her, the mother and jab the child.
This cognitive dissonance is showing no signs of being reconciled with reality.
I’m guessing that at this point in the epidemic most people who are unvaccinated have either had the illness and died, or had the illness and survived.
Having had the illness gives your immune system a very strong boost – Israeli data suggests over 10 times stronger than having a vaccination. If this is the case, it would not be surprising that the unvaccinated are far less likely to get a second dose – which is what your data shows.
So, rather than suggesting that the vaccine is failing, the data simply shows that the vaccine provides some immunity, and continues to do so, but that prior infection provides a lot more…
Well, more to the point, maybe the data is suggesting that people who have already had covid-19 have rather intelligently decided against being vaccinated. That would be the correlating factor that I would look for, but they aren’t given enough data to find it.
Yes, it would be interesting to know, wouldn’t it! A confounder that the vax lobby would be too embarrassed to mention, even though not mentioning it makes their stats look bad.
Indeed. I am over 70, I have had Covid – a couple of positive tests, a range of symptoms all backed-up with a positive antibody test (so I’m damned-sure that I’ve had it), and took the decision not to be vaccinated as there seemed to be marginal or no benefit and slightly more-than-marginal risk.
That’s likely – we’re intelligent enough to also use that now unfashionable old technique of managing risk ourselves.
I’d also like to see a breakout of the effects and side effects of the “vaccines” on the previously infected. More data we will never see.
Yup. Might be. Might be lots of things. But also might indicate that the vaccines make things worse.
So, it would seem to be extraordinarily important to do some rapid ‘what’s going on right now!’ studies to investigate.
But that won’t happen, because the authorities do absolutely nothing where there’s any risk that the results might show the vaccines in a bad light.
This ceased being a problem associated with ‘needing to sort out the vulnerable’s protection in a hurry’ many months ago. It stopped being negligence a few months ago. We’re now in the realms of ‘wilfully deceiving the public’.
“Willfully deceiving the public”…. Remains ongoing….
“wilfully deceiving the public” Yes, evil.
Are autopsies being carried out in England on those with Yellow Carded deaths? Doesn’t happen on the US, does it happen here?
Yes – this is a large potential confounder. Which doesn’t mean there is no point in getting vaccinated.
No, it simply means that there’s a risk that through mass vaccination the government has introduced substantial risks for the entire population and most definitely for the vulnerable.
Note that a relative increase in susceptibility to covid of about 50% doesn’t result in case numbers going up 50% — because of the compounding nature of infections this is more like an exponential function. A fair estimate of the impact on case numbers for R0 going from 3 (say) to 4.5 (50% higher) would be a five to tenfold increase in case numbers. Given the waning of vaccine efficiency a fivefold increase in case numbers would put the vulnerable and old (still where the vast majority of hospitalisations/deaths occur, vaccination or not) in a worse position compared with if we’d only vaccinated the most vulnerable (ie, if there is a fivefold reduction in risk from vaccination then a fivefold increase in cases would get your risks back to where you started).
We’re in a position where the frantic calls for vaccination have improved risks for the majority from near zero to a bit closer to zero, but will have removed protection for the vulnerable back to substantial. It looks like the non-vulnerable have selfishly protected themselves at the expense of the vulnerable.
But that’s just where we are now — we’ll have to wait and see how the risks play out in the longer term.
Remind me what you think the point in getting vaccinated is? Explain to me how I can calcuate my personal risk of dying from covid based on my age and health and prior medical history, and compare this to my risks from the vaccine, including the long term safety risks, and the risks from boosters indefinitely. Good luck!
Remind me what you think the point in getting vaccinated is?
Reduce your risk of getting Covid in the short term – particularly while the NHS is under such stress
Reduce your chances of getting seriously ill if you do get Covid.
Reduce your chances of infecting others if you do get Covid
Contribute to lowering the overall level of virus in the community and thus the probability of infection and of new variants arising.
Explain to me how I can calculate my personal risk of dying from covid based on my age and health and prior medical history, and compare this to my risks from the vaccine, including the long term safety risks, and the risks from boosters indefinitely.
We will disagree on both the risks associated with getting Covid and the risks resulting from getting vaccinated. This will result in tedious and time consuming exchange of comments containing little that is new to either of us and causing neither of us to alter our opinions. It will probably conclude with at least one person showering obscenities on me. So thanks I’ll leave it this time.
I’ve honestly not found reliable information that would help me make a decision. You clearly have. Can you show your workings?
There is no serious data to show the overall validity of the jab, Julian. Toss a coin if you’re an optimist about The Narrative, otherwise – duck in the face of an experiment with insufficient data.
I can only conclude from the above that you do not understand the subject under discussion at all.
Utter gibberish.
We exchanged a series of disagreements the other day. It didn’t result in me showering you in obscenities. However, I did label you a time-waster/troll and potentially on the government payroll.
Your latest contributions back this up.
So presumably you would prefer me not to engage in a debate on this subject – we agree on something!
I don’t think you’re on a gov. payroll, MTF. You corrected a mistake openly once. I think that you are hoping that you are right.
Sandra thank you. I would be delighted if someone was paying me for this but no such luck. I think of my activity as exploring what is right through active debate. It would be good news if all of you were right so in that sense I hope I am wrong – but I fear I am right.
If they are paying people to come on here I want some serious back pay.
You had me at “particularly while the NHS is under such stress” – you’re funny as hell, I think I’ve cracked a rib.
Good luck getting that treated.
Well. There are potential confounders in there. The one that I mentioned above the likelihood that some percentage of the people who already had covid would refrain from an unnecessary jab.
That said, we can’t conclude that the vaccine is effective from the data presented. It looks rather like vaccinated people are at a higher risk of catching covid than unvaccinated people. You can’t just wave your hands and claim that there are confounders, you have to find them and demonstrate that their effects are large enough to produce the rather large effect that is in the numbers. 53% is a big effect.
If I had to bet, I would say that (1) more vulnerable people are more likely to get vaccinated, and (2) people who have had covid already are less likely to get vaccinated, but the effects of (1) and (2) are unlikely to be great enough to overcome the 53% effect that we are seeing. It would be quite nice to see if these effects could be accurately estimated and filtered out.
“more vulnerable people are more likely to get vaccinated”
Possibly, but, although I wouldn’t have accepted jabbing anyway, as flying in the face of scientific good practise, my decision was confirmed as more and more data emerged. The total lack of testing of the vulnerable population wa. one factor, and the strong possiblity of raised mortality in that population was another.
I guess I’m also numerate and understood the probabilities as opposed to the panic.
I might still get Covid (if the strange bugs pre-2020 weren’t it), and I might get seriously ill, and I might die from the effects. But it will be against the odds – have a close look at that bar chart.
Vitamin D replete, Rick?
You can’t just wave your hands and claim that there are confounders, you have to find them and demonstrate that their effects are large enough to produce the rather large effect that is in the numbers. 53% is a big effect.
The effectiveness studies that Will derides do allow for many confounders and demonstrate their effects. For example, this relatively recent preprint allows for age, sex, index of multiple deprivation, ethnic group, care home residence status , geographic region, period (calendar week), health and social care worker status, and clinical risk group (only available for <65 year-olds) or a clinically extremely vulnerable group (any age).
None of them seem to allow for prior infection, but it if it is not equally distributed amongst the vaccinated/unvaccinated then it is clearly a confounder. We don’t know the numbers but we can get an idea of its potential by playing with some assumptions. I did small calculation of the VE effectiveness against infection of the 70-79 age group for those that have not had Covid making these assumptions:
The VE is zero, while the crude figure was minus 37%, i.e. a 37 percentage point swing. (The actual VE calculation should of course include other confounders as listed above).
But there is : namely, avoiding the known and unknown harms of a cytotoxic substance that is has nebulous and unproven benefit, and a minimal ARR.
You haven’t had Covid yet, but you’ve been vaxxed with no ill effects.
You will get Covid though… at that point you will have to calculate the risks of a booster.
Please do that very carefully.
Everyone I know who got covid also got vaxxed. Lots of true believers in covid think you should get vaxxed anyway. I don’t think you can assume that people who’ve already had it are less likely to get vaxxed. Whether you’ve had it or not counts for nothing for the purposes of your vaxx passport, too, which was also a big driver for a lot of people in getting jabbed.
The only people I know who got ill this summer are vaxxed
I know one who wasn’t. And one who would not have counted as vaxxed, ie, only first Pfizer. And he then went and had 2nd dose despite natural immunity! Agggghhh.
A major component of my assessment of probabilities is circumstantial. Simply – any persuasion emerging from proponents of The Narrative have a high probability (judging by known factors) of being the opposite of the truth, and highly compromised by conflicted interests that are not about a benefit to me.
Just a wave from the cheefully living unvaccinated, uninfected – who’ve seen similarly vulnerable old farts actually killed off by the vaccine
.. or not had the illness (yet) and decided to take their chances with it.
Rubbish – I know plenty of people who have not had Covid (or are unaware of having it) and are not jabbed (this is not strictly a vaccine) and are alive and kicking and super healthy – eg me – and I ain’t young… you seem to forget that prior to these rollouts the numbers in Asia and much of Oceania for covid were super low and studies have shown very high T cell immunity (due to prevalence of other corona viruses) and vit D levels extremely high – you forget that natural immunity is the best protection by far (covers all so called variants) and the ARR on these jabs averages 1.2% – plus they kill and injure too many people – and by the way the dangers of having recent acquired immunity via infection and then taking the jab are well documented – the body attacks itself – so while you’re at the stats throw in a shitload of injured and dead – oh and zooming out a bit – what about promoting safe, cheap, proven treatments and scrapping dangerous drugs?
I missed the article on Full Fact in June. It is very interesting to note the choice of language “bad information” which of course like “misinformation” is not actually incorrect just frowned upon. What they tell us is not that “bad information” is actually incorrect but it “promotes hatred”. Oh dear if you disagree with the “Big Brother” version you are “promoting hated” except of course they that are promoting hatred and intolerance by trying to dis in advance anyone who disagrees with them. This is how you destroy society.
Interesting article and statistics, thank you.
In this bizarre era, if I see anything that has been labelled incorrect by one of those fatuous ‘fact-checker’ clowns, my default assumption is that it is in fact entirely true. If Ofcom does indeed rely on them that is, most unfortunately, further evidence of regulatory capture.
Is their legal recourse for this libel? I would happily contribute to a fighting fund to challenge this in the courts.
We should ask Big Brother Watch to challenge them. It would be VERY interesting to see their reaction to such a request, given that they are also funded by George Soros: https://bigbrotherwatch.org.uk/funding/
(His organisation is called Open Society)
isn’t it actually even worse than this as they’re including everyone who’s had a shot and up to 14 days after their 2nd shot as unvaccinated and those are the ones who are actually getting sick?
Benedictus main points are correct. The PHE report is no good for estimating effectiveness because:
The fact remains that with all the confounders the method for preventing Covid infection is profoundly ludicrous, completely inefficient and deceptive. Also, what is repulsive about these people is they are playing the Ministry of Truth game – they are saying if you do not agree with us you are “bad”, trying to promote “hatred” and “illness” etc. This is no way to go on. Soros, the alleged student of Karl Popper and the proponent of “the open society”, ought to hang his head in shame.
On the number of people who are unvaccinated, there’s an interesting article here: https://www.hartgroup.org/pick-your-denominator/ Some have argued for using the (lower) ONS population estimates, which are more favourable to the vax, although in some areas the ONS population estimates are 20% lower than the total number vaccinated; it’s also not all one way; the ONS estimates imply a 48% negative vax efficacy for the over 80s. Estimated infection rates after a single dose are also very high, similar to the unvaxed numbers using ONS figures.
Based on that thinking..
Where in the statistics can we see the amount of terminal patients, let’s say 6-12 months?
Would they be vaccinated? I don’t know.
You can’t. I imagine most of them would be a high priority to be vaccinated. However terminal you are, you never know exactly long you have got and you don’t want to lose what little you have left.
Judging by the number of down votes it is evident that several people smell BS. In normal circumstances giving a medication with known rough routine side effects to someone in a frail condition would surely be contraindicated. And of course cynically if someone was to die thou could then say they were going tp die anyway.
“you don’t want to lose what little you have left.”
A fair bit of that has already been taken by 18 months of hysterical, exaggerated Covid measures, and continued banning from events on the basis of a fake ‘vaccine’, all supported by the living dead that now seem to form the majority of the population. That’s why I’m pissed off!
Have a look at the Norway early “vaxxed” nursing home deaths in exactly these circumstances.
“The PHE report is no good”
But then none of their reports are more than drunk man’s default lamp-post use
Benedictus is motivated by protecting the Big Lie, not by truth. If the authorities were interested in the truth and believed in the vaccines, they would gather and provide better stats. But they are not. If the PHE data showed that the vaccines were super effective, and someone printed that, would Benedictus denounce that as inaccurate?
So PHE data is crap? Now – who would have known that??
… which leads to the ineluctable conclusion that their recommendations (and those of other official agencies) are also crap.
Stalemate – tending to avoidance.
The funny thing about that FF site is that when I visit, and read one of their wet pieces on some poor sod’s work, and realise that the FF argument doesn’t sound right, I often go off and read that poor sod’s work on the original posting. I’m sure lots of others do the same. Maybe it’s the pieces I choose to read, but I’ve never ended up agreeing with FF.
So take heart, Will. Your pieces have been getting under their skin. You’ve probably also contributed to some additional readers here.
Keep up the good work.
I can’t help thinking there’s something dodgy about that site though. They claim to be ‘fact checkers’ but some of their pieces are so poorly researched and presented that they end up giving further credibility to the piece they’re seeking to undermine.
Another interesting point about FF is that they have an address on the Mall. That has of course to do with being round the corner from Whitehall (ie if the government don’t want to leave a paper trail) but rather a pricey piece of real estate for checking facts.
They share a building with the Institute for Government and The Privy Council Office. It’s a state propaganda body.
Thanks for that.
That they are called ‘fact checkers’ is purely to give the veneer of credibility, the illusion that they are some kind of impartial organisation only interested in pursuing truth. A bit like ‘Black Lives Matter’, if you give yourself a name that sounds sufficiently well meaning you can get away with all manner of bullshit apparently. So, in the same way that when you say you don’t support BLM people can say “wait what, so you don’t think black lives matter then?”, when you point out that sites such as FF are full of shit people will be like ‘hang on a minute, you’re disagreeing with the fact-checkers!? It’s their JOB to tell the truth”. When in reality we all know these sites and their authors are bought and paid for by Facebook, Gates Foundation etc. It’s pure Ministry of Truth, and for me one of the most insidious elements of the propaganda campaign.
Thanks for confirming what I sussed some 15 months ago when Mike Yeadon’s stuff was being rubbished by the same outfit, (FF). Accepting Mike Yeadon’s credentials and published information prompted me to ‘fact-check’ the fact-checkers. Bought and paid for shills to toe the party line was the conclusion.
Sadly, such is the effectiveness of the SAGE Psyops outfit, folk still refuse to see through this nonsense. “There are none so blind——.”
Agreed, they tend to leave one thinking “is this the best they can do?”. The site is mainly to give The Team some references to link to. They know 80% of the faithful won’t even click the link, and 99% won’t actually read FF’s own sources or do further research to get some context.
This morning I heard a child at a neighbouring school felt ill after the vaccine and was taken to the gymnasium where they subsequently collapsed (I am in Yorkshire). I am not sure how the child is, I sincerely hope it is nothing too serious. As a parent whose child will get this vax over my dead body, I cannot for the life of me fathom how parents are going along with this. It feels like game of Russian Roulette.
I am certain that more stories such as this will be circulating within days. Of course, it will be explained as demonstrating the need to vaccinate all children because covid can still seriously affect their health. The vaccine is 100% safe and all talk of adverse effects are deliberate misinformation.
Are you reading my mind or am I reading yours?
Syncope (fainting) was mentioned in a CDC presentation back in June: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2021-06/03-COVID-Shimabukuro-508.pdf (p.13) as being 17% of the adverse effects reported to VAERS for Pfizer age 12-15
It’s mind boggling isn’t it – one can only wonder at how they’ve arrived at a place where they’re prepared to risk their child’s life in this way. It almost certainly isn’t anything they’ve directly experienced… just the powers of propaganda and persuasion. We’re not even engaging with the programme – kids will be off school when it’s happening. They shouldn’t have to witness other children going in for the roulette.
They go along with it because they are too damn lazy to do any research. If the government says it’s ok, then it must be.
I am reposting this link from last night to ensure it gets publicised. Please spread this info.
I would like to encourage everyone to look at this link, to the conference with Viviane Fisher from the Corona Committee.
https://odysee.com/@en:a5/PK_Tot-durch-Impfung_english:a
The part on the vaccine contents starts at about 1.27.
At 1.42 there is a presentation from an Austrian surgeon with many slides and film of objects in these vaccines.
It goes into proper medical detail on what is in these “vaccines”
There are slides which show metallic objects moving in the “vaccines”. The reflective and synthetic ingredients are there for some other purpose and must come from military technology. It suggests to me that the “mad” theories about transhumanism could have merit, as some of these objects are clearly engineered nanobot type objects.
There is a good presentation from a German surgeon who is working with a group of international doctors to investigate and publicise this.
With the evidence in front of us of clear criminal intent there is no way anyone can now allow the vax deployment to children.
The medical team also used controls in the form of conventional vaccines.
No normal vaccine contains these synthetic objects.
Could just be piss poor rushed production as the “vaxx” companies roll around in billions of dollar notes and no regulation.
Their explanations might hold water, except:
The results from the PHE vaccine surveillance report show a trend, and it is moving in one direction (except for <18 year olds, presumably associated with low vaccine rollout other than to the most very vulnerable).
It seems ‘unarguable’ to use a Ferguson phrase that cases are higher in the vaccinated but it’s also clear from the table that less of the vaccinated are going to hospital or dying and that’s what matters
Fewer, not less.
Is it true that anyone dying within 14 days of the vaccination is treated as unvaccinated in the data? That would skew the data considerably, wouldn’t you think?
The title of the the website “Fact Check” is misinformation. They’re checking opinions and interpretations. The data stands as the closest thing to fact we have.
An observation. According to ourworldindata, for the 60-69 age range (I pick that because I’m in the middle), in 2015 (the last year shown) the death rate is about 20 per thousand. The PHE data is for 28 days, so the all-case deaths would be about 1.5 per thousand, or 150 per 100,000. The unvaccinated rate from the PHE data is 23 per 100,000, ie., about 15% of the normal deal rate.
I’v made this point before, the excess mortality rate is nothing unusual, so I’d take a bet that that even if the vaccines are “saving” people from C19, they die of something else at the normal rate, ie., C19 has just displaced other respiratory infections.
Leave off ‘excess’ – a term that is a waste of space. The overall mortality rate is nothing to write home about, and that has always been the case. It’s a foundational issue that often gets lost in arguments over detail.
It’s Efficacy now matches the likelihood of me getting one.
If both Will’s and PHE’s reports are based on data collected by means of a PCR test, they are both rubbish.
At 40-45 cycles will the PCR test not show a bias in the vaccinated compared to the unvaccinated whom have no prior infection?
The amplification or CT rate stops immediately when a positive result is achieved.
They may be designated to go up to 45 amplifications but taking the UK ONS Infection Survey as an example the vast, vast majority of positive results are achieved before 35 amplifications and there are NO positive results after 37 amplifications.
The first 10% of cases are positive at around a 18 CT rate, 25% of positives at around a 24 CT rate, 50% around a 31 CT rate, 75% around a 33 CT rate and 90% around a 34 CT rate.
It is governments who decide not to differentiate between the infectious and the possibly 60% who are not infectious, it is not a fault with the PCR test or most scientists. The scientists advising governments are the ones who are corrupt.
CT rate is not the only issue – how many segments of the gene they “identify” and the primers etc.used is just as important as I understand. Read pages 57 -70 of the ILLA expose of the original Cormen-Drosten RT-PCR mass testing process. Initially a triple segment was reduced to a single segment; unless that segment was unique to SARS COV2 is it not logical that other asessments of a “positive” PCR test – never mind the “factory based” assessment of the swab casting severe doubt as to it not being corrupted in some way – have to be done but simply were not in the vast majority of cases?
The original Corman-Drosten et al paper has been criticised but Eurosurveillence looked at all the criticism and rejected them all.
The original paper had already been improved and updated.
The vast majority of virologists are happy with the current PCR test which is highly specific for SARS-CoV-2.
The main issue is the safety protocols at mass testing labs to avoid potential contamination.
I 100% agree with you here, that the input data is absolute bunk, however that is the PCR positive metric with which they have padded their figures and manufactured this house of cards so it is only right in my humble opinion that people on our side of the fence use their own data and metrics to debunk the bullshit, especially around the vaccine. Sure, it’s playing a bit of make believe as far as real science goes but it has levelled the playing field somewhat.
I have met the aforementioned Leo. He is a smugger, more privileged version of his fox-killing, kimono-wearing shyster lawyer brother, Jolyon Maugham (who took his stepfather’s name), but without the eccentric charm.
Still, nice offices at 2 Carlton Gardens, St James’s, wedged between Pall Mall and The Mall. I bet the rent is very reasonable. And it’s convenient to share a building with the Institute for Government and The Privy Council Office.
Hold on. As a chicken keeper, I support fox reduction. Is he shooting them?
Hi Sandra, I’m not a sentimentalist about foxes, I just threw in the mention as Jolyon Maugham once rather notoriously tweeted about beating a fox to death with a baseball bat in his garden. Caused a bit of a stir among his followers.
What a surprise, the ‘efficacy’ is dropping as the summer turns to autumn.
It really isn’t an exaggeration when we say that we are living in an Orwellian dystopia.
We are. I’m trying my hardest to live parallel to it.
Hi Nymeria, hope you’re OK my dear.
Hello, Jo. Any better and I couldn’t stand it
Hope you’re ok too. You should stop by some time and say hello to the old gang who are now on the Reddit site.
With a hefty dose of Huxley’s Brave New World too.
Those pesky facts just keep getting in the way don’t they.
I’m sure a lot of you will have seen Alex Berenson’s post from last night about average deaths in Scotland being >25% higher than the five year average. Just in case though, here it is https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/fair-is-foul-and-foul-is-fair
More pesky facts.
I’ve been noticing a trend of high death totals/rates for many weeks. I’d have to check but I seem to recall Northern Ireland had its worst August death total on record (since 1990). Deaths in England and Wales were up about 17% on the previous August. “Covid deaths”* are also running at multiple levels higher than the exact same, jab-free period last year.
*(All the usual caveats apply)
I think you may need glasses
As said – there’s nothing exceptional about recent all-cause mortality.
High rate of heart problems in Scotland. Could make them vulnerable.
Is “fact” another of those new Plastic Words?
Well, Will – I’ve criticized you at times, so you deserve compliments for this report on a seminal issue.
I think I would take a slightly different line on interpretation – which is that the comparisons made by PHE have one over-riding feature :
Taking the data at face value, positive or negative differences are absolutely minimal, particularly when you consider the fact that you have to catch the virus before being a relevant item, thus confirming the ARR of ~1%.
There’s also the old ‘proportionality’ issue that’s been raised here previously :
Put ‘100,000’ (instead of 1,800) at the top of the y-axis, and all bars retreat into insignificance – even invisibility.
One further note :
“In other words, the high-risk are over-represented in the vaccinated and this skews the sample. I countered that the large majority of the older age groups are now vaccinated so this bias should be very much reduced.”
One might add the hypothesis that early vaccination also played a role in killing off a susceptible proportion of that vulnerable population at an early stage, given the rise in mortality that emerges in December.
Whatever – I only see confirmation of my decision not to risk jabbing.
And again, look at ONS all causes death rates for vaccinated vs unvaccinated. The vaccines are the biggest medical disaster in history. Ten years from now – if there is anyone left to say it – everyone will agree.
Here are my newest tin foil hat thoughts. I was watching an episode recently of ‘The Highwire’, and Del Bigtree referenced some studies that I found particularly of note; that there is some growing evidence that the vaccine might be wiping out people’s naturally acquired immunity by nausing up their immune systems with this junk. If those findings are replicated then I think the implications of that are HUGE as it means that potentially the virus can never become truly endemic as you are always artificially creating a susceptible population instead of letting herd immunity arise. The upshot being that this never ends. Not saying this was by design, probably more just catastrophic human intervention but it’s food for thought, for me at least.
Crush the natural immune system, replace it with a manufactured immune system… First jabs are free, and then you have to pay in future, forever… Classic drug pusher behaviour.
How do you think they will treat the deaths expected among cancer patients who are no longer in remission after receiving both jabs (report from cancer hospital in the US of cancers growing rapidly after being in remission and cancer spreading to many other organs)?
Any bets on “nothing to do with the jabs” ?
Excess cancer deaths need careful watching as they are likely to be dismissed for other reasons unless autopsies are conducted to show novel changes in growth type and progression through the body.
Good food for a good thought. The effect of the “vaccines” is waning because it is meant to – MOAR BOOSTERS! It may well also be intended to crash your natural immunity so EVEN MOAR BOOSTERS! Forever.
That is what we call “cherry picking” – ignoring evidence cause it doesn’t support your premise.
Another likely confounder is that people who have chosen not to have the vaccine may also be less likely to seek a covid test for mild symptoms, or when asymptomatic, compared to the group who have had the vaccine. This difference in behaviour would depress the number of identified “cases” in the unvaccinated group.
Great work Sir.
Remember Bismarck’s famous aphorism: “Never believe anything until it has been officially denied”
Can someone on here (I haven’t read the article in full) explain what a NEGATIVE Vaccine effectiveness really means? Does it ENHANCE susceptibility to the virus/disease??
Genuine question. I find it perplexing. reading Greek and Latin seems to be a lot easier.
Yes, possibly because it is initially immunosuppressive.
Why do you think they measure efficacy from 14 days post jab 2? It’s because in the first 14 days, or so, the efficacy is negative across all age groups. The data from Israel makes this pretty clear. The first 14 day period is lumped in with unvaccinated, thereby inflating the unvaccinated numbers, decreasing the vaccinated. It’s all part of the con.
Statistics themselves are not enough it’s who controls the statistics
To paraphrase Lenin
Story in todays DT about excess deaths
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/09/24/analysis-thousands-usual-dying-not-covid/
So what are these thousands dying of? Turns out heart disease, strokes and respiratory infections are to blame. Did anyone make the connection that these are all problems associated with the so-called vaccination? That would not suit the government narrative and so they don’t make the connection. That’s the trouble with lies; you have to keep making up new ones to cover the holes in the old ones.
I knew something big was coming when it has been soooo quiet lately. And here it is folks. The next step to the great reset. A lorry driver shortage. Not really new, we have known for at least three months, the gov’ts just mistakenly didn’t bother to do a thing about it. Today, no petrol at the stations, food shelves in most large grocery chains very thin, and GP surgeries have not had blood vials for over two months. So if you cannot refuel your car to get to work, and you have no car to drive around to dozens of food stores, and you cannot get a simple blood test which might just save your life, well too bad.
Yes, this is the next step in the evil plaN. Nothing else makes sense. When the gov’t wanted to rollout jabs to every living creature in the UK it took what? A couple of weeks. But food, petrol and blood vials, we just can’t seem to pull our thumbs out and get things running again. I wonder why that is. You know how Australia had locked down like forever. That is one approach at forcing everyone to get jabbed. The UK is using a slightly different approach. No food, no fuel, no access to Gp’s or blood tests til every last person drinks the koolaid. Bought or threatened? Or both? Nothing else makes sense, does it?
Well done Will. Hat off to you.
The liars:
Fauci
Daszack,
Farrar,
Vallance
Hancock
ONS
UN
WHO
JCVI
MHRA
NHS
PHE
CDC
FDA
Gavi
Big Pharma
All our Government ministers.
The Controller: B. Gates.
A perceptive 10 year old can see, and could see from the start, that Covid-19 has nothing to do with real science (ie, it’s a crimes against humanity political scam).
As just one glaring example, in July of this year Christian Vélot, Ph.D., a French geneticist, stated…
“[…] by vaccinating massively during a pandemic, we create selection pressure in favor of variants. In a way, we create with mass vaccination vis-à-vis variants the same situation as with the abuse of antibiotics that leads to antibiotic resistance. These have free reign because all bacteria vulnerable to the antibiotic are gone and can no longer “occupy the territory” and limit the proliferation of resistant variants.” (https://dennisriches.wordpress.com/2021/09/07/covid-19-experimental-vaccines-and-vaccine-strategy-interview-with-geneticist-christian-velot/ )
or this…
“Drugs known and administered for fifty years (eg hydroxychloroquine, ivermectin) suddenly became dangerous and (Covid) vaccines without any history of use are deemed safe and without risk. On what scientific rationality are these choices based?” (https://dennisriches.wordpress.com/2021/09/07/covid-19-experimental-vaccines-and-vaccine-strategy-interview-with-geneticist-christian-velot/ )
Luc Montagnier, a French virologist and Nobel Prize Recipient, said the same thing about the Covid vaccines — THEY create the variants — noting “You see it in each country, it’s the same: the curve of vaccination is followed by the curve of deaths.” (https://thenewamerican.com/french-nobel-prize-winner-warns-vaccines-facilitate-development-of-deadlier-covid-variants-urges-the-public-to-reject-jabs/ )
Pathologists who investigate deaths after Corona vaccination found that 7 OUT OF 10 are either probably or very probably connected to the Covid ‘vaccines’ that were administered to these people. (https://freewestmedia.com/2021/09/22/lymphocyte-riot-pathologists-investigate-deaths-after-corona-vaccination/)
That’s why the Powers That Should NOT Be see to it that autopsies are NOT performed on alleged Covid mortalities.
This article by Dr. Mercola explains how the CDC FRAUDULENTLY reclassifies deaths of Covid-VACCINATED people to deaths of Covid-UNvaccinated people falsely attributing deaths to unvaccinated while DEflating the GREAT harm from Covid jabs to the vaccinated people — https://is.gd/BvBYsH
And most important here is WHY even most SO-CALLED intelligent people could not and still CANNOT figure out that the fake Covid pandemic has NOTHING to do with real science but ALL with criminal politics AGAINST POPULATIONS (you and I) … read “The 2 Married Pink Elephants In The Historical Room –The Holocaustal Covid-19 Coronavirus Madness: A Sociological Perspective & Historical Assessment Of The Covid “Phenomenon”” by Rolf Hefti at https://www.rolf-hefti.com/covid-19-coronavirus.html
If your employer (even educational or federal employers) wants you to take a Covid vaccine give him/her one of these form letters of exemption found at https://www.flemingmethod.com/exemptions or https://lc.org/exempt
I had posted this article onto my facebook page 6 days ago and today facebook informed me the article has been “fact checked” as “Misleadfing”.
You will be pleased to know that there is yet another fact check dropped on shares of this article on facebook
The fact checker
Umme Kulsum started working for Logically in December 2017 and is a Moderator within the Fact-Checking team. She holds a Bachelor`s degree in Commerce from Mysore Institute of Commerce and Arts (MICA).
https://www.logically.ai/factchecks/library/262394f6