The latest Technical Briefing on the variants of concern, number 22, has been published by Public Health England (PHE), so we can update our (unadjusted) estimates of vaccine effectiveness against the Delta variant using the data it includes from sequenced Delta samples from positive PCR test results in England.
As before, we subtract the figures in briefing 22 from those in briefing 17 to give the figures for the period June 22nd to August 29th. We also use figures for proportions of the population vaccinated by age derived from the PHE Covid surveillance reports.
Starting with the over-50s, for the period June 22nd to August 29th, PHE reports 47,874 Delta infections in the double vaccinated and 5,748 in the unvaccinated. PHE figures show that in this period the proportion of the over-50s double vaccinated increased from 87% to 89%, giving a mean of 88%, and the proportion unvaccinated was stable at 9% (Note: not 10% as I stated previously). Calculating the vaccine effectiveness against Delta infection in the over-50s (1-(47,874/88%)/(5,748/9%)) gives a figure of 15%. This is the same as the figure I calculated two weeks ago, though now using the more accurate figure of 9% rather than 10% for the proportion unvaccinated. This means that it represents a decline (using 9% for the previous calculation would give a VE of 24%). This continues to be very different to the estimate in the recent Oxford University study using ONS survey data, a study which I criticised for numerous inconsistent and implausible findings.
With regard to deaths with Covid (within 28 days of a positive test), PHE reports 1,004 in the double vaccinated and 399 in the unvaccinated in the over-50s in this period. This works out (1-(1,004/88%)/(399/9%)) at a vaccine effectiveness against death of 74%, down slightly from 75% using data from the previous briefing (even with the change to 9% unvaccinated). This is a 74% reduction in mortality including any reduced risk of infection, not in addition to it. It continues to be an encouraging figure, albeit lower than earlier studies have suggested, and dropping week on week.
For the under-50s, for the period June 22nd to August 29th, PHE reports 58,714 Delta infections in the double vaccinated and 160,143 in the unvaccinated. PHE figures show that in this period the proportion of under-50s double vaccinated increased from 18% to 39%, giving a mean of 28%, and the proportion unvaccinated decreased from 61% to 51%, giving a mean of 56%. Calculating the vaccine effectiveness against Delta infection in the under-50s (1-(58,714/28%)/(160,143/56%)) gives a figure of 27%. This is down from 37% two weeks ago, and though higher than in the over-50s, is still very low and much lower than earlier studies (including the trial) indicated.
For deaths, PHE reports 37 in the double vaccinated and 93 in the unvaccinated in the under-50s in this period. This works out (1-(37/28%)/(93/56%)) at a vaccine effectiveness against death of 20%. This is up from 12% two weeks ago, but is still very low and much lower than in the over-50s. This may be because higher risk people are prioritised for vaccination, or are more likely to consent to it, in the younger age groups.
These figures are much lower than those commonly quoted and used in modelling, and if they are closer to the truth then they mean the official, self-congratulatory estimates of “100,000 deaths” and “24.4 million infections” prevented by the vaccines are huge overestimates.
By plotting the differences between the reported total Delta cases in the last four briefings we can also get a picture of how they are changing over time in the different age and vaccine-status cohorts. The red and yellow lines in the chart below show that new Delta infections in the unvaccinated have started to increase again, but not by as much as those in the vaccinated (for this purpose, all who are at least 21 days after their first dose), which have continued to surge. A majority of new infections (57,565 out of 94,148, or 61%) are now in the vaccinated. This means that the recent increase in reported infections in England is being driven primarily by infections in the vaccinated. The fainter lines show the trends in the over- and under-50s, indicating that in both age cohorts new Delta infections in the vaccinated now outnumber those in the unvaccinated, and that new infections in the vaccinated over-50s are increasing particularly fast. This helps to explain the declining vaccine effectiveness estimates given above.
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Effective at what though?
Still 100% effective at causing clotting.
One young fella said he wasn’t going to get the jab after seeing our protest tonight – Winnersh, Wokingham, Berkshire https://t.me/astandintheparkbracknell/6047
… if it saves just one life !
Well done
Very interesting report, thank you Will
I presume you are using the term ‘unvaccinated’ to mean anyone not double jabbed (for at least 14 days)?
Why would you do this? I appreciate that is how the underlying data is presented.
Edit – I see that there is clarification further down but does that mean that the calculations also count anyone with a first dose at least 14 days previously as ‘vaccinated’?
Good piece regarding Israel: https://trialsitenews.com/a-covid-19-vaccination-quandary-israels-infection-rates-continue-to-shoot-up-despite-mass-inoculation/
In terms of MSM recognition, I would guess Israel is now heading the way of Sweden
Just looked up the Worldometer data as well, and things don’t look too good for the Pfizer vaccine efficacy there. Many scientists/climicians on the sceptic side have been saying that the problem with all the vaccines is that it’s effctively incomplete (genetic material) in, very specific virus strain efficacy out (i.e. Alpha/Kent).
Whether the more ‘traditional’ vaccines fair any better – maybe, maybe not, as they used the same ‘soup’ (not a purified virus particle) of genetic material that was then put into computer programs to get what they ‘thought’ the virus might look like.
It could be that only a small amount of the ‘correct’ genetic material from a new coronavirus was included and if the vaccines only work (to some degree) for that specific element of code, then any new strains will be relatively unaffected.
At least the likelihood is that as it mutates, the actual virus will normally get easier to transmit, but less virulent, born out by data about the Delta ‘strain’ infections, hospitalisations and deaths.
Of couse, Pfizer is now touting a pill that people are supposed to take twice a day to ‘stop’ the virus. A nevernding pandemic and $$$.
Other than the very vulnerable, where vaccines might be the only way forward, herd immunity combined with trying to get everyone as fit and healthy as possible should have been the way to go.
“Other than the very vulnerable, where vaccines might be the only way forward, herd immunity combined with trying to get everyone as fit and healthy as possible should have been the way to go.”
Agreed, but immune systems no longer exist, and that’s official. Also vegan is the only helthy diet, well that’s not official yet but soon will be.
I was astonished how much my helth improved and how few infections I caught once I started eating that dangerous low carb/paleo/ketogenic diet, pretty much the exact opposite of what the dietitian told me to eat. If you eat how we evolved to eat your body works how it evolved to work. Who knew?
The Scientists have had a marvellous time with all of the lab rats provided by governments all over the world.
these claims and all the others above are totally meaningless without knowing the medical history of the deceased. The unvaccinated may have been too ill to even consider vaccination and just died of whatever it was that was ailing them already like most covid deaths.
Or, as I said in another thread from about a week ago, that so many other factors are at play here – far more people who are from ethnic minorities/immigrants will be amongst those who aren’t vaccinated because of cultrual experiences from their country of origin or of relatives for 2nd gen ones.
As you said, we also have no idea as to whether those affected are from the vulnerable cateogories – especially from the under 50 group, where it could make far more of a difference to the numbers, especially if people being treated for certain illnesses mean they cannot be vaccinated.
It makes a HUGE difference now that the NHS is slowly trying to reduce the backlog of non-COVID treatments, i.e. there could be higher numbers than normal of people in that ‘special’ category that could seriously skew the results.
I think the article’s analysis is very basic at best, and likely not worth much in the grand scheme of things.
But the deaths are all fudged, the tests are meaningless..
I know of an 11 year old severely disabled boy who recently passed away, multiple underlying health conditions..
After his passing, the hospital said they would be covid testing (a dead body) and if it came back as positive there wouldn’t be an autopsy or coroners report.. It would simply go down as covid
Even though there was no evidence of it, nor did he have any symptoms
She’s smarter than PHE.
So aged vaxoids are 74% less dead?
Good to know.
Eighteen months of this nonsense now and nothing surprises me anymore but one thing I do know is that this government and its advisors on Sage have been catastrophically wrong on absolutely everything while Sweden has been absolutely spot on. But what really rubs salt into the wound is that Sweden’s pandemic policy was more-or-less our policy too up until March 2020 and somewhere along the line this government binned a prefectly good pandemic policy in favour of immitating the tyrannical lockdown approach of a brutal communist regime in China?
WTF?
Since when do western governments (and conservative ones at that) replicate the crazy policies of ruthless communist dictatorships on the other side of the world?
Heads must roll for this mother of all balls-ups
Oh it’s much worse than a balls-up. It is evil.
Although the data is far from ideal it provides another nail for the vaccine passport coffin every fortnight.
Only a complete moron (no shortage I know) would vote for vaccine passports now. The Media is not helping us out much but then they have been willing enablers for so long now I doubt much will change there.
The Russian owner of the fear porn Indie also owns the fear porn Standard. Could there be any advantage to Russia in having the UK’s economy further destroyed? No, no…
Blah blah blah. No real clinical evidence that they make actual TF difference to catching a Corona (common cold) virus or not.
Still prefer to trust my god/Mother Nature given immune system over these lying Pharma ass holes.
I am afraid I hold little time, and thus cannot ascribe any accuracy, to the deaths data as we still do not have any proper data on deaths “with” and “of” covid
Four more suspicious deaths likely vaccine related I found on today’s search (very sadly including TY half sister):
21 09 03 Toby Youngs sister 25 https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9955493/Lords-daughter-25-died-suddenly-falling-ill-home-headache-heatwave.html
21 04 03 4 month pregnant woman 36yrs instant brain haemorrhage https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9955289/Husband-tells-moment-pregnant-wife-36-died-suddenly-brain-haemorrhage.html
21 09 03 David Patten Patriots football player 47 https://footballaddicted.com/2021/09/03/richard-seymour-and-other-ex-patriots-react-to-sudden-death-of-david-patten/
Portodown man 37 sudden death https://deaddeath.com/lee-trimble-death-obituary-lee-trimble-has-died/
Vaccine rollout to healthy under 30s started in June which implies an underlying health condition serious enough to be double vaccinated by end of March (TY’s half sister).
I see in Belgium warnings beginning to be given not to play intensive sports soon after jabbing. If parents are so brainwashed they jab children, schools should at least cancel sports lessons and fixtures for them in the aftermath.
I have no words
When they say things like “deaths cut by XX%”, that is called a counter-factual. It is a comparison to something that didn’t happen and so requires a large scale statistical analysis to show whether or not it is true. Has this been done?
My question is: Given that the Delta variant is known to be less deadly, is the reduction in deaths purely due to the change in the virus?
“Given that the Delta variant is known to be less deadly, is the reduction in deaths purely due to the change in the virus?”
I think the point being made is that if the vaccines do nothing you’d expected the proportions of those dying from covid to match the proportions of vaxxed and unvaxxed in the population, per age band. That’s OK as far as it goes, but the age bands are far too wide, the definition of a death involving covid far too vague, and there’s no information about the state of health of those dying in the two groups, which I think is essential. For example, if the unvaxxed over-50s dying are all frail 80 year olds with other serious health problems, and the vaxxed over-50s dying are all healthy 50 year olds, then the conclusion is different.
We also need to know the percentage with natural immunity among the jabbed and unjabbed.
Ie, the crucial comparison would be between rates of death from, not with, Covid between those with natural immunity, and those unjabbed without NI, and those jabbed without NI.
Strange that Bill and Melinda have not funded such an important study.
“With regard to deaths with Covid (within 28 days of a positive test), PHE reports 1,004 in the double vaccinated and 399 in the unvaccinated in the over-50s in this period. This works out (1-(1,004/88%)/(399/9%)) at a vaccine effectiveness against death of 74%, down slightly from 75% using data from the previous briefing (even with the change to 9% unvaccinated). This is a 74% reduction in mortality including any reduced risk of infection, not in addition to it. It continues to be an encouraging figure, albeit lower than earlier studies have suggested, and dropping week on week.”
Well, if we’re talking deaths with rather than from, are these figures not somewhat random? If you’re looking at the effectiveness of a vaccine, would you not look at what people are actually dying of? Also I think you need to control for the underlying state of health of those two groups to make sure they are equally representative – and with that fairly small sample size, and vaccine decisions potentially linked to health conditions, I don’t think you can assume any such thing.
Yes no matter how careful the analysis it is still based on bollocks.
We know these vaccines work to some extent, but allow infection(and all that entails) and transmission. We also know the potential for short and medium term health problems. We still do not know what long term problems may be.
We also know that the benefits do not last long. Ask Israel!
“We know these vaccines work to some extent”
Do we? I’ve not found any reliable of data that convinces me of this, weighed against the unknown long term effects.
… and, of course, the perversion of the accepted testing protocols should be an impassable red line for any true scientist.
Unless you do post mortems on everyone who dies, vaccinated or unvaccinated the figures are flawed, and they are not doing that. We have 1500 approx die each day and relating covid to any of them without evidence is out of order. At the beginning of this, the dead and dying were treat like bio hazards, cemeteries sealed off ‘so we couldnt see all of the vehicles carrying them’, a friend in NZ asked me where the mass graves were. I do not believe a word any of the ‘authorities’ say now
A doctor in Germany did post mortems last year and found most died of things other than covid.
I think a starting point would be an honest assessment of what people died of, based on agreed criteria. Impossible to find. They are all up to their necks in the Big Lie.
Have you seen the Del Bigtree interview with Dr Ryan Cole (pathologist among other things)? It’s on rumble and probably other places as well. Dr Cole says that hardly any autopsies are being done in the States on those who have died post vaccination and are reported on VAERS. Dr McCullough specifically asked for an autopsy on a patient who had died as he suspected the vaccine caused it and the coroner just refused. No doubt under orders.
Thanks Will for another excellent report.UK is just following Israel. The UK 94% antibody prevalence in adults (which included too many vaccinated with rapidly declining antibodies) is not the wall of immunity. It is dropping fast and prolonging the outbreak and current daily figures is not coming down, as in earlier times, and are indeed increasing in the elderly even more in the vaccinated.
There is no way other nations than Israel will not also go for booster doses. The pressure for politicians pretending to do something is too strong. But this will be a step too far for any coherent response, it will end in chaos. Many double jabbed healthy, having this vaccine for travel purposes will not come forward. Persuading people, unvaccinated, to go for at least 3 doses in the nearest 8 months will be very difficult. The amount of breakthrough infection in vaccinated would render vaccine passport useless if you want to stop the spread. Mandatory tests could not be exempted for vaccinated, as they would more likely to spread in many cases, see the Vietnamese study.We all know at some point they are forced to live with this endemic virus. And you can only do this with scrapping all regulations, quarantine, border checks etc and perhaps reserve vaccines for those in risk groups just like flu.
And it could go even quicker.Wait if a “drifted” influenza virus reappear this winter which would be much different from 2019 version. A severe seasonal flu outbreak may dwarf any problems with endemic C 19.
“With regard to deaths with Covid (within 28 days of a positive test), PHE reports 1,004 in the double vaccinated and 399 in the unvaccinated in the over-50s in this period.”
Well – that’s about as meaningless a statement as can be made from observational data, isn’t it? …. and is a perfect illustration of why a lack of rigour in testing leads to data junk, with all sorts of possible intervening variables.
Most important, of course, is the inability to examine natural decline in the virus and the lesser effect of the ‘Delta’ variant. Above all, given the massive assumptions (rather than facts), we find that the numbers are very similar – and very small when adjusted for vaccination status in the population.
Doh!!!!!!
Of course – on top of this, any statements about our old friend ‘cases’ can go straight to the WPB for processing
Useful information, links and resources: https://www.LCAHub.org/