The latest Technical Briefing on the variants of concern, number 22, has been published by Public Health England (PHE), so we can update our (unadjusted) estimates of vaccine effectiveness against the Delta variant using the data it includes from sequenced Delta samples from positive PCR test results in England.
As before, we subtract the figures in briefing 22 from those in briefing 17 to give the figures for the period June 22nd to August 29th. We also use figures for proportions of the population vaccinated by age derived from the PHE Covid surveillance reports.
Starting with the over-50s, for the period June 22nd to August 29th, PHE reports 47,874 Delta infections in the double vaccinated and 5,748 in the unvaccinated. PHE figures show that in this period the proportion of the over-50s double vaccinated increased from 87% to 89%, giving a mean of 88%, and the proportion unvaccinated was stable at 9% (Note: not 10% as I stated previously). Calculating the vaccine effectiveness against Delta infection in the over-50s (1-(47,874/88%)/(5,748/9%)) gives a figure of 15%. This is the same as the figure I calculated two weeks ago, though now using the more accurate figure of 9% rather than 10% for the proportion unvaccinated. This means that it represents a decline (using 9% for the previous calculation would give a VE of 24%). This continues to be very different to the estimate in the recent Oxford University study using ONS survey data, a study which I criticised for numerous inconsistent and implausible findings.
With regard to deaths with Covid (within 28 days of a positive test), PHE reports 1,004 in the double vaccinated and 399 in the unvaccinated in the over-50s in this period. This works out (1-(1,004/88%)/(399/9%)) at a vaccine effectiveness against death of 74%, down slightly from 75% using data from the previous briefing (even with the change to 9% unvaccinated). This is a 74% reduction in mortality including any reduced risk of infection, not in addition to it. It continues to be an encouraging figure, albeit lower than earlier studies have suggested, and dropping week on week.
For the under-50s, for the period June 22nd to August 29th, PHE reports 58,714 Delta infections in the double vaccinated and 160,143 in the unvaccinated. PHE figures show that in this period the proportion of under-50s double vaccinated increased from 18% to 39%, giving a mean of 28%, and the proportion unvaccinated decreased from 61% to 51%, giving a mean of 56%. Calculating the vaccine effectiveness against Delta infection in the under-50s (1-(58,714/28%)/(160,143/56%)) gives a figure of 27%. This is down from 37% two weeks ago, and though higher than in the over-50s, is still very low and much lower than earlier studies (including the trial) indicated.
For deaths, PHE reports 37 in the double vaccinated and 93 in the unvaccinated in the under-50s in this period. This works out (1-(37/28%)/(93/56%)) at a vaccine effectiveness against death of 20%. This is up from 12% two weeks ago, but is still very low and much lower than in the over-50s. This may be because higher risk people are prioritised for vaccination, or are more likely to consent to it, in the younger age groups.
These figures are much lower than those commonly quoted and used in modelling, and if they are closer to the truth then they mean the official, self-congratulatory estimates of “100,000 deaths” and “24.4 million infections” prevented by the vaccines are huge overestimates.
By plotting the differences between the reported total Delta cases in the last four briefings we can also get a picture of how they are changing over time in the different age and vaccine-status cohorts. The red and yellow lines in the chart below show that new Delta infections in the unvaccinated have started to increase again, but not by as much as those in the vaccinated (for this purpose, all who are at least 21 days after their first dose), which have continued to surge. A majority of new infections (57,565 out of 94,148, or 61%) are now in the vaccinated. This means that the recent increase in reported infections in England is being driven primarily by infections in the vaccinated. The fainter lines show the trends in the over- and under-50s, indicating that in both age cohorts new Delta infections in the vaccinated now outnumber those in the unvaccinated, and that new infections in the vaccinated over-50s are increasing particularly fast. This helps to explain the declining vaccine effectiveness estimates given above.
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Meanwhile, the government is imposing a tax on the poor, reaching deep into their pocket, so that some upper mid class toffs can have electric vehicles on the cheap. Contractors have been shafted by HMRC with IR35, a law that is meant to make big companies pay as much tax for contractors as they would for employees, but in actual fact is making contractors pay as much as if they were employed, but giving them absolutely no employment rights.
The government hates the poor. They hate independent people. They want you to spend your entire life either at home or at work, stop travelling, stop dreaming, and be a slave to the wage in a house you can barely afford to rent.
Welcome to Build Back Better.
OXFORD University’s controversial Bullington club is an exclusive dining society synonymous with heavy drinking and lewd behaviour.
Let’s take a look at the club which boasts famous former members such as ex-PM David Cameron and current Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson.
Why do Bullingdon Club members burn £50 notes?
It has been claimed anyone wanting to join the club has to burn a £50 note in front of a beggar as part of an initiation ceremony that celebrates members’ ostentatious wealth and contempt for the poor.
“It wasn’t just about having cash – you had to rub it in the faces of those who didn’t. It’s distasteful and disgusting.”
In 2005, the club smashed 17 bottles of wine, every piece of crockery and a window in a fifteenth-century pub. Four members were arrested.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2833129/bullingdon-club-oxford-why-burn-50-notes/
She should get some more legal knowledge or a decent lawyer. If the breach of the law that is alleged on the indictment is that she organised a “rave type gathering of more than 30 persons” and there’s no evidence to support that, then she’s not guilty.
Legal guilt is a technical relationship between charge and evidence.
Doesn’t matter what else she did or didn’t do.
Challenge the fine in court.
PS Do the police get a slice of that money, as local authorities do from speed camera penalties?
Yes but think of how many peope she might have killed now what more proof does one need .This sums up thr country if you put shit through a blender add some more shit pour it into a expensive glass you still have shit and we still have a piss poor government whose job is to make as much money for themselves before they “retire” and make even more money for themselves. .Surely people are getting a bit tired of this ?
she could have killed a granny – if one of the partygoers had contracted covid and then gone and hugged their granny.
I’m being facetious
The fact that she is being prosecuted and convicted for the same crime which it is being alleged that the PM and 16 other party organisers committed in Downing St and the wider government estate is the massive issue.
There will be huge outcry if those 17 parties at a time when we were told not to are not the subject of prosecutions.
Yes a rotten, corrupt, lying, parasitic, self-serving Establishment answering to Globalist Billionaires- not the Brtish people!
Who knew?
Lawful under the ‘guidance’ to have care visits for mental health issues.
Fact that her bank account is being raided without her consent is something we should all be paying closer attention to….
its a bit like Trudeau freezing the bank accounts of the supporters of the canadian truckers
“Sunny-Jo admits that she was in the wrong to break the rules […]”
No she wasn’t. She did nothing wrong whatsoever. She was just trying to live the life of a normal young person amid widespread hysteria. The only people guilty in all this are the criminal scum who lead this country, who took away her liberty and her rights.
She needs to set up a crowd fund. I’m sure many of us would donate.
Never ever ever admit anything to the police!
Better off refusing entirely to engage with them at all.
Yup, and sadly it’s far easier for them to get a self incriminating statement out of a decent, law abiding person than someone who’s already “known to them”, and thus likely knows enough to just shut the fudge up.
100% agree – during this period of terror, I watched some YouTube videos about how to respond to the police, and although the ones I watched were American, they could just as easily be applied to the UK. The view was that the very best way to respond to the police is ‘no comment’, and other than to give your name and address you do not say anything more. The police are not interested in recording anything that may show that your innocent, they will only record anything that could be used against you. And should they misquote you, who wil the judge believe? Therefore say nothing and they can’t even misquote you.
The daughter of a close friend of mine was arrested in the spring of 2020 for taking her small child to a public playground. She let her child play on this tax-payer funded playground even though it was covered with yellow police tape.
She later pled guilty to a misdemeanor and I think her fine was waived. Still, she had to pay for a lawyer. She was also an officer in the U.S. Army and her little “political statement” contributed to her resigning her commission and getting out of the Army.
All for the “crime” of a 3-year-old sliding down a sliding board.
New World Order tyranny in embryo!
Most of our MPs are fully signed up to this!
When are the people going to wake up and fight back?
We have to face up to the fact that we are alone, nobody else is going to join us now. Covid set that line in the sand and this manufactured war is making the line wider. We are the minority and always will be, so that makes change very difficult. Need to start thinking well outside the box to make any kind of impact.
Good comment. The propaganda techniques and suppression of alternative views begun by Covid are being perfected by the Ukraine.
The rotten sold out propaganda Media are largely to blame – we no longer have a free press or AV media.
Today is March 10th 2022. Two years have gone by already. It doesn’t look likely ‘The People’ will be waking up…. and as for ‘fighting’…. seriously? Nobody wants to end up in prison. They’ll get waped!
Just ‘Hold.The.Line’ and all will be fine – there are literally hundreds of lawyers coming over that hill any moment now, in their suits and clutching their briefs, ready to collar ‘Sir Chris’ and ‘Shagger’ Neil and pals, and haul them off to the Nuremberg 2 trials.
On a more serious note – I take it that everyone on the protests is aware that the Police have been filming them. They know who you are, and what you’ve been up to. It’s a real possibility that the next months/years will be the very last of any real freedoms – tracked by your own mobile phone, and your ‘citizen’s file’ already on the database.
This may be worth a watch again:
https://youtu.be/4WTpO9y2Dh4
The fact that there are so many people on this blog, and thousands more across the world, saying the same thing when, at the onset of the Iraq war, there were handfuls of people around the world protesting it, suggests people are waking up.
Now Ukraine, where even some covid sheep are actually taking notice and drawing comparisons between Iraq and the Cuban missile crisis, Syria, Yemen etc.
Now we have the ‘conspiracy theory’ of US funded chemical and biological laboratories in Ukraine being admitted in Congress, having been publicly Fact Checked as categorically untrue mere days earlier in the mainstream media and online.
Trust in the Biden regime and the Democratic party in general has nosed dived, the polls are devastating.
It only took Watergate to condemn Nixon as the most dishonest US President ever (that was caught) but Biden is facing multiple firefights on numerous fronts; covid policy, deadly vaccines, voter fraud, his green obsession, his overt racism, rampant inflation, gas prices (he could get away with inflation if gas prices remained low) and as mentioned, Ukraine. Then there’s his family involvement in Ukraine business and politics.
Whilst the Democrats conducted a futile and unsuccessful hatchet job on Trump chanting ‘Russia, Russia, Russia’, Republicans are an awful lot more stealthy using multiple points of attack, and the noose seems to be closer, if not tightening quite yet.
All those people now not supporting Biden when the pollsters question them are waking up. They may not all yet be courageous enough to turn to ‘the dark side’ of overt scepticism, but they have taken the first step.
“So many” we need twenty million!
They’ll have definitely have seen my face, and my middle finger, on their cameras over the past couple of years.
Are you paid to keep commenting on here?
You must be an absolutely bloody joy to live with, thank God I don’t have to.
They’ve got your face every time you buy something from a supermarket – close up if you use the self-serve check out. Not only that, but they’ve got your face coupled with your bank details.
They know who you are. Hell, they’ll know who each of us are on this website. Being controlled opposition, it’s always dawned on me that this site probably serves as a baited trap.
Point being, what do you propose people do to make a real difference?
Never ! Obviously. For every one of you theres a 1000 peope waiting to spit at you.
Some truckers in Canada tried. Enter the “emergency orders” of the Prime Minister.
Then out come the “hiding” Military Police to stove the heads in!
Wait until Johnson gets his repressive policing and censorship measures through and kills off our Human Rights and Magna Carta! Then there is the Gates-Who mandated ‘forced vax tyranny’ “population reduction therapy” on the way and why not “Martial Law” to manage the rationing of fuel and food and show solidarity with Ukraine ‘democracy” (sic).
Tyranny at home, while we look abroad to a manufactured war. Manufactured by the same crooks who locked the country down for 2 years and blackmailed us to be jabbed by a bioweapon in return for our freedom.
The story above proves we need to think outside the box – certainly in regards to safekeeping our money from the government. Countries like Canada are already moving towards outlawing cryptocurrency. We’re outside their scope of control if we take back our money from the evil banks.
So that’s what we must do. We keep control of our money and assets, they cannot punish us for trying to continue living our lives as normal human beings. Limit shopping at supermarkets when possible. Never shop at Amazon again. Look for alternatives to keeping your money in a regular bank. Pay with cash at all times.
So wrong, when the government are already under investigation for their own ‘gatherings’
oh yeah what happened about that ?
The police investigation is ongoing, allegedly…….
goingon(a bit) you mean
I have charged people with murder faster than the MET can investigate some parties.
This brings to mind the alleged “investigation” into Epstein and Maxwell’s “sex trafficking operation.”
“Silence is ‘Golden’ “
Yes “ongoing” in the WPB!
Ukraine happened! No wonder Johnson started smirking when the ‘war hype’ started.
While I’m certainly sympathetic, I’m not quite sure that I believe the story that the dog ate the summons.
If she’d never responded at all then the initial £10K blackmail demand would have proceeded straight to being a collectable court debt, and bailiffs would be smashing her back doors in for the lot. I abhor that about FPNs, but that’s how they work: silence is considered to be an admission of guilt.
Then where did they get the details of her pay? Given the eleventy-nine ways that you have to identify yourself to HMRC to get details of your own tax records, I doubt there’s a simple way for the State to determine total income in a gig economy – and simple is all that the State can deal with.
What I suspect happened was that she responded with a “Dindu it, legit” and enough details of her income to have it go to trial, then ignored the summons. A lot of people do, particularly women, as the TV Tax ghouls know very well.
However, her initial mistake seems to have been speaking with Dibble at the scene.
The best thing that you can say to the police, under any circumstances, innocent and pure as the driven snow, or standing over the corpse with the knife in your hand, is absolutely nothing.
I was a tiny bit cynical about our sunny girl .However the fact that this notion ever got out of the packet is crazy.How relevant is a law set for emergency measures a year later when it would be impossible to prove the integrity of the actual offence which was seemingly made up on the spot with no science to back it or prrovet hat negligence took place .So fight on Sun Beam or whatever youre called because if your guilty then so are the rest and that has implications
Best thing she can do is obtain an adjournment until the MET have completed their investigation into partygate and start from there.
If Boris is found guilty, then she’s off the hook. If he’s found not guilty, she’s still off the hook as his parties have undoubtedly taken place.
Did Matt ‘I broke the rules for love‘ Hancock get fined for breaking covid laws? Were they laws, or were they rules or were they just guidelines?
Take your pick I guess?
Then he went on a run round London and everyone clapped.
imagine when digital currency arrives fully and cash is taken away,
Biden just signed an “executive order” to fast track “digital currency.” I hope a few people understand that this is a euphemism for “cashless society.” This is coming – a lot quicker than even some of us thought. Certainly, ALL of the Powers that Be have lined up in support of this “reform.” And what they want, they get.
heard about that, ironic that a nearly 80 yr old who has no clue how digital currency’s work signs that, remember during the president debates biden said people listen to the “record player”
I suspect like all politicians he has been told what “reforms” to support – and “digital currency” is at the top of the Deep State’s agenda. And, yes, I dang sure do think the “Deep State” is real.
idiot has he never heard of muisc centres catch up grandad
I thought the more technical term was radiogram.
gramophone ?
It will be a bit hard then to advise people to “pay in cash”. One way cash is being dismissed with is the self-service machines being introduced (more and more) which don’t accept cash.
There is an ever increasing number of machines that formerly took cash but now don’t – for example, at petrol stations in Finland, ticket machines for public transport, parking ticket machines.
The Future encroaches and you will be bound to your mobile phone and bank card. Remember, if arrested, the Police will have a run through your phone to see what juicy stuff you have on it!
(and remember, even deleted items are stored somewhere, they never really go for good.)
Best start using a VPN that doesn’t record your activities.
The emergence of a national black market and barter economy. The implications were highlighted in the Matt Damon movie Elysium which happens to be very good.
We should all get used to this as it will be even easier for the State to take money from your “Digital currency” accounts in the future.
That’s the whole purpose of this coming “reform” – to make it incredibly easy for the State to steal money from citizens who don’t comply with their edicts. Also, with these “social monitoring systems,” the State could easily find out the names of all 30 people who attended the “unlawful” gathering.
From article: “In her absence she said it was decided that 17% of her monthly income would be taken to pay off the £2,026 fine, with £320 taken out last month.”
I can see a fine system being set up with the online harms bill in the future, i.e. you said the wrong opinion and a message is sent to fine you, or the state has deemed you committed “hate speech” and a fine is taken out of your digital wallet. etc, you can see the marketing now, “saves courts time and money by fining people there and then” etc
Just let your imagination run free regarding what they can (and will) do when the State effectively owns “your” money … We’ve already seen what Trudeau did to truckers in Canada.
yes because they let him!! time and time again i hear people saying the same thing like we have no choice .We do have a choice to stop tyranny and poor government it just seems not enough of you can be bothered as you get in your hot tubs after your fucking Zoom meeting and complain you have had hard day .Thats why no one complains because their lives are too easy.Oviously i dont mean you personally but this is a very real picture.The poor ,the working class are not going to “rise” together because they are brainashed individuals all trying to get more than you have .
Which is how black markets and underground movements evolve.
How do we stop it?
We’ve marched, we’ve Stood In the Park, we’ve written to MPs, written to the papers, posted leaflets and it’s got us nowhere.
I haven’t got a truck but have defied the mask orders.
All that’s left is self- immolation in the street but if I did that I’d feel they’d won.
There was a Sylvester Stallone movie (name escapes me at the moment) where he was awoken from animated suspension to deal with a violent criminal (Wesley Snipes) who had escaped his punishment in suspended animation.
Both were from the ‘violent’ 20th Century and woke some decades later in an entirely peaceful society which didn’t know how to deal with Snipes.
Throughout the movie Stallone was plagued with surveillance that fined him automatically every time he swore.
I’m now eyeing my Amazon Alexa with suspicion…….
Demolition Man.
Amazon Alexa? Seriously?
Yep. Saves me touching disgustingly covid covered items such as light switches, heating controls and transistor radio’s.
Mind you it might catch our pizza order….err, no. Sorry, daughter does that online for us. Perhaps our deep discussions on politics that might be considered collusive and subversive like…..FFS Boris is a wanker.
Maybe though, discussing dinner is a threat to national security. Have to think about that one.
Nope, got it!!!…… Announcing to the world I’m taking the dog for a walk at the same time every night is obviously a ruse to meet with a Russian spy.
Yes Alexa!! I’m a sceptic FFS, I’m not paranoid!
If you’re that paranoid why the hell are you posting all your innermost political thoughts online to be recorded for all time and used at your trial?
And who can stop The State from emptying your bank account entirely, or stopping you from access to it?
“The peasants are revolting!”
“Tell ’em there’s a virus about and they have to spray the handles of their shopping trolleys, that will give ’em something to think about.”
-it worked, didn’t it? And there they still stand, outside Tesco, in their face masks and steamed-up glasses.
yes but somebody somewher nearly knew someone who might have been in contact with some bloke whose brother s girlfriend just got back from India and sat on bus with a vulnerable adult who might have got Covid if he didnt wash his masks by hand or something.Also i think the comletley effective”trick or treat” sysyem was a steal at £37Billion and we didnt even have to pay for it YET Crazy times .
Judging by the Canadian example, the government doesn’t need digital currency to restrict your access to your money in your bank account.
So are you suggesting that the state will have direct access and control of our accounts? In other words, retail banking will cease to exist?
It might cease to exist – at least as far as checking accounts and savings accounts. Yes, at some point, the State will have direct access and control of our accounts (they already do at some levels).
The one group pushing back hard against this so-called reform are smaller, community banks.
If you read the stories, you also read about the “unbanked” – all the people who do not have a bank account or checking account. This program will “benefit” these people, per its organizers.
The human rights act and numerous other acts always enshrined our right to freedom. The government simply did not have the power to dictate how we live our lives and these laws are simply null and void.
The Human Rights Act is a myth.
Try telling the staff at the airport or harbour that these laws are ‘null and void’ when they ask you to show your Vaxx Pass or other ‘Covid papers’, and see how they laugh.
Close the bank account
What doctors say in private about covid vaccines.
IMHO they should issue fines to anyone who didn’t have a party/gathering/holiday during the illegal lockdowns.
yeah fannies !
I reckon that – if she said she intentionally broke arbitrary, disproportionate and unnecessary rules – she’d quickly get a hundred times that amount via crowdfunding.
And she’d still win any case.
Good people break bad rules.
Hasn’t “crowd funding” for unauthorized causes been banned and criminalized? I know it has in Canada.
It can be done via Crypto.
In my state of Alabama, much of the free world rallied to the defense of Rosa Parks when she “broke the law” by sitting down in the front of a public bus.
Contrast this support for a “good person breaking a bad law” to the support people like this lady has received … or my friend who was arrested for letting her child play on a closed playground in the spring of 2020.
Needless to say there is no equivalent of Martin Luther King, Jr. standing up for similar travesties of our “justice” system.
I think this story more than any other displays the stupidity of the whole Covid debacle .A virus not worrying enough without having added lies attached to it .A ruling elite breaking every rule they set for the electorate and the demonisation of a young woman for breaking laws that would normally have to be justified .To top it all like the lady said NOTHING has happened in regard to the No10 parites and probably never will ..and now we have blanket coverage of a war we would have had no interest in 7 or eight years ago .Imagine if Russia had invaded Ukraine or Georgia or Chechyna whats that ???? they did!!! Why werent we told
imagine this coupled with fines from cdbc within a cashless world, “sorry you said something we did not like, fine out of your state cdbc wallet”
https://reclaimthenet.org/the-eu-wants-to-sanction-spreaders-of-misinformation/
That’s ok. Just wait till the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) is launched. You will have nothing and will lump it.
Monetary Fascism!
Coming soon to all!
The Banks are not our ‘friends’ they work for the Globalists and politicians.
Even if she did have a part, how many of the attendees who were likely all sub 70 went on to die of Covid?