New daily infections have fallen by 31% over the last seven days, causing some consternation and head-scratching in the epidemiological modelling community.
Neil Ferguson, for example, had claimed only ten days ago that cases reaching 100,000 per day was “almost inevitable”. Yesterday he backtracked, noting that “the equation has fundamentally changed”. (One hopes he was referring to the equations in his model.)
As to why daily infections have been falling, some epidemiologists have said the full effects of ‘Freedom Day’ are yet to appear in the data. ‘Freedom Day’, you will recall, was when some remaining lockdown measures were lifted on the 19th of July.
Yesterday, the Prime Minister told reporters, “Step Four of the opening-up only took place a few days ago, people have got to remain very cautious and that remains the approach of the Government.”
Aside from the fact that ‘Freedom Day’ was nine days ago, and you’d expect any effects to show up by now, there’s another indicator suggesting that a rebound in cases is unlikely – the Google mobility index.
Google publishes regular reports on the level of mobility in most of the world’s countries, based on smartphone data. Looking at the latest U.K. numbers, there is no evidence of any change in behaviour caused by ‘Freedom Day’.
The chart below shows the retail mobility index. (Numbers are percentage changes relative to the baseline; ‘Freedom Day’ is marked with a red line.) As you can see, there was no sudden increase on the 19th of July.
The next chart the residential mobility index. Once again, there was no sudden decrease on the 19th of July. (And the other four sub-indices show the same pattern.)
Of course, the Google mobility index isn’t a perfect guide to behaviour. And given that rapid decreases in case numbers have occurred in the absence of mobility changes, it’s possible that rapid increases could too. Nonetheless, these figures suggest that daily infections aren’t about to rebound, and we don’t need to “remain very cautious”.
To join in with the discussion please make a donation to The Daily Sceptic.
Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.
“Google Mobility Data Suggests That ‘Freedom Day’ Will Not Cause a Rebound in Cases”
I don’t think it suggests anything.
cases appear to be coming down (govt and zoe). it is probably unrelated to the fact we are opening up. i expect whatever google mobility data suggests, it will do what it wants to do in spite of that
but given that its an almost completely benign virus – who cares! probably good to give the immune system a workout
Big Brother loves you.
BIG BLUBBER IS MOCKING YOU!
funny how they just stopped updating this
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports
“Freedom day” was just a brief interlude to give people some feeling of normal life during summer before more lockdowns in the autumn/winter and the implementation of “Green pass” (vaccine or test) to access normal life, in line with the EU.
no freedom day
What it suggests to me is that prior to ‘freedom day’ people were pretty much going where they wanted anyway and taking sod all notice of government diktats. Hope that’s the case.
Get Google related spyware off your phone, or get a non-Google mobile device e.g. Nokia dumbphone…
You want to be continuously monitored? Keep using Google.
Don’t make it easy for them.
Go-ogle a branch of the alphabet agencies.
C’mon. Be fair. You surely don’t want to stem The profit Google are currently making (out of sheer benevolence).
We all know by now that prof Ferguson is no Mystic Meg.
He’s a tauran, full of Bull.
Oh, I don’t know – I’d put him on a par with Mystic Meg; he’s about as accurate as she was in her prognostications.
Oh Noah … I do wish you wouldn’t report the bleedin’ obvious as a revelation. It’s as if you half believe the absurdities coming from the SAGE nexus.
What should cause surprise, in the light of history, is when they get something right!
Looking forward to this week’s ZOE update. Hope Tim doesn’t have to backtrack on his backtrack…..
its heading in the right direction
biggest daily drop in new infections since january – even if they did massage the figures upwards to try and agree with faulty govt data
That is not a natural epidemic curve, I’d be highly skeptical of that plateau.
there is a lot of data adjusting going on. you can also get something like a plateau from multiple normal epidemic curves overlain but time shifted (ie going through young/north first and old/south later).
you are right it looks odd, but I think we will see govt data (also massively problematical) and zoe data come down rapidly together – even after 19th ‘reopening’
the conclusion would have to be ‘models dont work’
if its wasn’t for the models we wouldnt have any restrictions
Mainly because there’s no epidemic – let alone a viral one.
… but you’ve got to have some sort of line to look credible.
Now> Here’s your task, should you wish to accept it.
… Draw a line representing actual SARS-CoV-2 infections.
Timbo says its flat….. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7p7ok5aIX6s
But it doesn’t look too flat ….
I’m afraid there’s quite a lot of wavering using the SAGE reasons for why things have not turned out as predicted and no discussion of how the ZOE results would have aligned if the methodology had not been changed.
So the sane people were already being sane and that hasn’t changed, and other factors such as immunity levels or humidity are the dominant factors as opposed to human interaction.
I think some of us saw this coming…
on another thread, someone mentioned Marek’s disease in chickens
from wiki
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marek%27s_disease
“The Marek’s disease vaccine is a leaky vaccine, which means that only the symptoms of the disease are prevented.[12] Infection of the host and the transmission of the virus are not inhibited by the vaccine. This contrasts with most other vaccines, where infection of the host is prevented. Under normal conditions, highly virulent strains of the virus are not selected. A highly virulent strain would kill the host before the virus would have an opportunity to transmit to other potential hosts and replicate. Thus, less virulent strains are selected. These strains are virulent enough to induce symptoms but not enough to kill the host, allowing further transmission. However, the leaky vaccine changes this evolutionary pressure and permits the evolution of highly virulent strains.[13] The vaccine’s inability to prevent infection and transmission allows the spread of highly virulent strains among vaccinated chickens. The fitness of the more virulent strains is increased by the vaccine.”
sounds like what we have with these covid vaccines. vaccinated people are breeding grounds for more virulent strains because symptoms are suppressed but transmission isn’t
initially they wanted to vaxx the vulnerable. I wonder if the decision to vaccinate everyone including children came after they realised the vaccines were leaky and don’t prevent transmission.
looks like they really fucked up
“The evolution of Marek’s disease due to vaccination has had a profound effect on the poultry industry. All chickens across the globe are now vaccinated against Marek’s disease (birds hatched in private flocks for laying or exhibition are rarely vaccinated). Highly virulent strains have been selected to the point that any chicken that is unvaccinated will die if infected.[14] “
That’s a fantastic result for the pharma selling the “vaccine”. It’s made itself completely indispensable!
Scary. Thank goodness its only a coronavirus………….
Except that many do not realise that there are a number of coronaviruses that we are quite used to, as the term was not normally used until the panic occurred. Roughly a third of ‘normal’ “common cold” infections are thought to be caused by them, after all.
VIDEO. NHS Nurses tell high risk expectant mother that they WILL be P C R Testing the baby once born, that the baby isn’t “The mothers property” once out of the abdomen & that the Safeguarding team (Social Services) are being notified because of their refusal. Heroes folks ….
https://twitter.com/DisabledJourno/status/1420295019441819651
If you want to be healthy you must avoid the NHS.
Very interesting if true. Can anyone confirm this other than a twitter feed?
PFIZERLEAK: EXPOSING THE PFIZER MANUFACTURING AND SUPPLY AGREEMENT.
https://twitter.com/eh_den/status/1419653002818990085
The problem after “Freedom day” is that hospitality sector workers are still being tracked and traced and, the old POS itself, scores of members of staff are asked to isolate EVEN IF THEY HAVE NO SYMPTOMS. It is said that “this is the law” yet we’ve already had the admission that “its law that schools must close down” actually confirmed as really being a suggestion. This site – https://www.laworfiction.com/ – has some about this as well as more about this FICTION that we are living. I don’t understand why businesses have not taken the government to the cleaners. What makes them so gullible and compliant ?
I can go out to some pubs locally but the main one (the cheaper one) is residents only unless you book a table. Of course the tables are all booked out literally months ahead. Along with bad management by the brewery (like WHY AREN’T THEY PROTECTING THEIR STAFF FROM THIS GOVERNMENTS TOTAL EVIL !) as well as the track and trace nonsense I feel very badly for the staff. Almost got into an argument with one until I realised he had been traumatised by the situation. Left that pub for the moment (my regular since 2014) until track and trace BS is stopped. Now go to another more expensive one where curiously they have absolutely no staff probles at all, I think because its a much better run business, staff looked after better, etc, so they’re not so stressed that they start producing “symptoms” likely from being too stressed.
Oh dear. “Cases” have risen again today (according to the BBC). We’re doomed!
I’m not sure those graphs really help us. There’s an easy argument that most people have sensibly (!) remained cautious, in accordance with government advice, and, were they to cease being cautions, and cease scowling at those of us trying to enjoy a normal life, the return to normal levels of mobility would trigger a new surge, a fourth wave (if that’s the correct count).
We need to see evidence of people breathing freely, and enjoying their lives. If a majority believes they’re dodging the virus by “staying safe”, they can easily be persuaded to call for the rest of to be forced to “stay safe”, again.
It’s almost like it… doesn’t… make… any difference?!