I’ve written a piece for Mail+ today asking whether the rapid decline in daily cases since ‘Freedom Day’ suggests that lockdowns don’t work. Here’s the kernel of the argument.
For critics of the lockdown policy like me, this is beginning to look like vindication. We have long argued that the ebb and flow of the virus isn’t affected by state interventions, pointing out that cases seem to rise and fall in the same wave-like patterns across similar regions, irrespective of the action taken by different leaders.
For instance, the states of California and Florida share a number of characteristics, but their governors have taken very different approaches to managing the virus. Gavin Newsom, the democratic governor of California, has imposed some of the most severe restrictions in the United States, while Ron DeSantis, the republican governor of Florida, has imposed some of the lightest. Yet the number of Covid deaths in each state are almost identical – 163 per 100,000 in California and 179 per 100,000 in Florida.
Lockdown advocates claim that the UK’s lockdowns prove the policy is effective, with cases only starting to decline after they were rolled out. But Simon Wood, a professor of statistics at Edinburgh University, has analysed the impact of our lockdowns in detail and found that in all three cases infections had begun to fall before they were imposed, e.g. the UK’s third lockdown was put in place on January 6, but cases peaked at the end of December.
Prof Wood’s analysis, as well as the data from other countries, suggests that an infection wave will start to decline in the absence of top-down restrictions, and that has been confirmed by the steady fall in daily cases since ‘Freedom Day’. The reason that’s significant is because it implies that the eye-watering financial cost of the lockdowns – £250 billion and counting – has been unnecessary, not to mention the missed hospital appointments, school closures, and terrible toll on the nation’s mental health.
Worth reading in full.
I think it’s probably too early to start gloating, but it does look as though the gloomsters on SAGE – not to mention the doomsters on Independent SAGE – got the modelling badly wrong. According to the latest data, the number of new cases today stands at 24,950, the sixth consecutive fall in as many days.
Lockdown zealots will attribute this decline to the vaccines, but that begs the question of why they weren’t confident the vaccines would prevent cases from surging when they predicted armageddon last Monday? No doubt vaccines have played a part, but so has natural immunity (by catching the disease and recovering) and pre-existing immunity (by having caught and recovered from a similar disease in the past). And we shouldn’t exaggerate the part the vaccines have played because we now know the trial data over-estimated how efficacious vaccines are against infection. The evidence that they significantly reduce the risk of serious disease and death is still robust; but evidence that they significantly reduce the risk of infection or transmission isn’t holding up very well, which is one reason vaccine passports are a waste of time.
Even though it’s too soon for lockdown sceptics to declare victory, we can at least start thinking about which of the zealots to start ridiculing – and with that in mind, it’s worth revisiting Neil Ferguson’s appearance on the Andrew Marr Show on July 18th.
Among Professor Lockdown’s claims were:
- It was “almost inevitable” that daily cases would climb to 100,000 a day and hospital admissions to 1,000 a day following the easing of restrictions.
- It was distinctly possible that daily cases would climb to 200,000 a day and hospital admissions to 2,000 a day, which would cause “major disruption” to the NHS.
- The peak of the current wave could occur between August and mid-September.
- “It’s going to be a difficult summer for many reasons.”
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well they add to the tidal wave of evidence that lockdowns don’t work and do more harm than good – huge harm
Nanny State Britain: Boris Johnson to Introduce Junk Food Credit Score App
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2021/07/26/nanny-state-boris-johnson-to-introduce-junk-food-credit-score-app/
Stand in South Hill Park Bracknell every Sunday from 10am meet fellow anti lockdown freedom lovers, keep yourself sane, make new friends and have a laugh.
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“No doubt vaccines have played a part”
I’m not so lacking in doubt, if anything maxx-vaxx spurred on the virus.
“No doubt vaccines have played a part”
yes, and hopefully the drug pushers will receive their just deserts
Presumably seasonality is also playing a role, and vaccines are getting the credit.
Median decrease in transmission in summer is 42%, attributable solely to seasonality, according to this article:
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210615/Does-SARS-CoV-2-show-seasonal-variation-in-transmission-in-temperate-countries.aspx
Does the 2021 curve look like 2020?
The “vaccines” that aren’t vaccines, will only ever get credits. Officially they can do no wrong.
Yes, maxx-vaxx certainly spurred on the deaths, but hey ho, they just don’t care.
How this guy’s head is not on a pikestaff on Tower Bridge is beyond me.
Give it it time and his head will be and it will have lots of company.
I might start up a line of Prof Pantsdown dartboards
Inflatable ones.
“I think it’s probably too early to start gloating, but it does look as though the gloomsters on SAGE – not to mention the doomsters on Independent SAGE – got the modelling badly wrong. “
FFS. When have they got it right?
The trouble here is that too many ATL articles implicitly take wild assertions too seriously, instead of cutting the nonsense off at the root.
How many articles are still treating the terms ‘cases’ and ‘infections’ seriously, instead of immediately just putting the record straight about definitions.
As with children – don’t give them attention. It just encourages.
I’d be careful with the analysis of lockdown 3 because stating that it started on 6 Jan is a little disingenuous. Recall that the November lockdown ended in Tiers with Tier 3 and Tier 4 being essentially a full lockdown. School was out of session for most of December, so the fact that lockdown entailed not going to school made no difference.
I remember that we were put into Tier 4 before Christmas and the only difference between before and after Boris’ 6 Jan lockdown announcement was that we lost the hope that the children would soon be able to see their friends. But nothing actually changed for us.
I would say that the December wave grew and fell under a persistent lockdown which began in November: remember how they cancelled xmas on us except for one day where they deigned to allow us to meet people?
So right. So many U-urns and changing draconian restrictions that it is difficult to remember.
Also remember that we will open up “once the over 70s are vaccinated”
They don’t prove that lockdowns do not work – equally they certainly provide little evidence that they do work.
They add to the increasing body of evidence that lockdowns do not work is what my slightly painfully astride the fence view tells me.
Particularly on the argument that lockdowns just defer and extend the pain
I keep looking at Sweden which didnt have so much as a wave but a very long neap high tide of cases and, maybe, through that got a deal more herd immunity. The proof or otherise will be whether Indian variant takes off in Sweden in a big way.
Can someone with a better grasp of figures than I have just clear up a few things for me?
These “cases” are positive PCR tests, am I right?
Mike Yeadon estimates that the possibility of false positives could be above 90%, when the test is improperly used, i.e. more than 20 cycles, correct?
Standard Covid testing is using 40 cycles or more. Is this still the case?
If so, why are we giving credence to ANY numbers churned out by any official body?
Is there any proof whatsoever that we are dealing with Covid 19 here and not just the next seasonal ‘flu?
I think 25>28 is the upper limit, but it appears they’re being run up into the high 30’s.
Then there’s LFT tests, which are just basically the same as a pregnancy test, only far, far less accurate.
Basically lot’s of positive tests, combined with lots of seasonal viruses, hangovers, hay fever etc
They have been at 45 cycles throughout in the UK, as evidenced by a FOI request to a Manchester trust. In other words, utter utter garbage, designed to propel a fake pandemic.
That is what I have seen with other FOI request responses. I also remember the WHO Gold Standard CT rate is set very high, perhaps 40? Kary Mullis went on record to disavow it’s use as a mass testing mechanism – and he should know, RIP. If you want to have a leitmotif for this entire fraudulent scandal is the knowledge that Governments know the RT PCR “Gold Standard” is not fit for purpose but these criminals still persist with their blatant lies.
Make that 45
Thanks
That is even worse; Dr MY and others have confirmed anything over ?25 is utterly useless and we all know it is not a test of infectiousness..
The CDC wants to replace the PCR test, as it seems the test can’t distinguish CV-19 from the seasonal flu.
It can’t distinguish CV-19 from grapefruit juice.
We knew lockdowns didn’t work very soon after this started
I think we’ve known that from at least the 17th century.
I now know around ten people, who over the last few weeks have had the rona, all of whom were under forty ( most much younger ) and either had recently had 1st, or 2nd dose.
Putting on my tin foil hat for a minute. Were all these models based on a high vaccine uptake in the younger groups? It’s been common knowledge for months now, that the jabs are linked somehow to post dose spikes. So were they planning on huge numbers of cases, driven by large vaccine uptake, which hasn’t happened?
The Jabs give you blood clots as well as suppressed immune systems. If you’re at low risk from COVID you’d be crazy to get jabbed.
I sat next to three students who were talking about getting released from isolation that day, after positive tests. One was discussing symptoms that did indeed sound like the Rona (acute loss of taste and smell). One described a sore throat – which I believe is not a common symptom. He still had the sore throat apparently even after two weeks and a negative test. So likely not Rona related – perhaps spliff related? The final one reported that his main symptom was a horrible rash – so that’s a “vaccine” side effect, right? All three would have been very recently jabbed.
Aside from those three, I know of a handful of recent positives (most over 60 and long since vaxxed). They passed it on within their households (antibodies depleted with no t-cell immunity?).
Nanny State Britain: Boris Johnson to Introduce Junk Food Credit Score App
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2021/07/26/nanny-state-boris-johnson-to-introduce-junk-food-credit-score-app/
Stand in South Hill Park Bracknell every Sunday from 10am meet fellow anti lockdown freedom lovers, keep yourself sane, make new friends and have a laugh.
Join our Stand in the Park – Bracknell – Telegram Group
http://t.me/astandintheparkbracknell
HOME EDUCATION – Ex-Primary School Teacher on Resistance GB YouTube Channel:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZ5oS2ejye0
https://www.hopesussex.co.uk/our-mission
Let’s see how the usual suspects can explain this away…
They will just avoid debate and discussion, helped by their chums in the media. In a month it will be like it never happened and they can start over again.
Have facts ever mattered? Will they ever matter?
Take the shot, get your pass, shut your mouth.
“No doubt vaccines have played a part“
If so, then why did “cases” fall similarly after each and every major surge in “cases”?
A few observations: since we now know 90.1% of adults have antibodies (and we can expect at least 50% for under 18s given central infection rates), the population of possible infections is falling to less than 5m. That doesn’t include those who don’t have antibodies but do have other immunity. For continued climbs in positive tests (won’t call them cases) you have to have these 5m linked to one another. Viruses need link chains to spread effectively. Is that still present? It seems increasingly unlikely.
I don’t think Freedom Day has happened. Last week on holiday in Eastborne and now back in Oxford I see masks as prevalent as before the 19th (especially among the young). Which, I’m fine with as it’s their freedom. But it means that a decline in infections will likely be chalked up to mask use, which is not possible given known issues.
Clearly we are testing far less (only 700k today). I’ve always believed we need % positive tests, and that by PCR and other types. The LFTs are not being used by children (why we did that at all?), though we are seeing more tests from adults as they try and travel. So the distribution of testing might also impact things.
But exit waves haven’t generally proven to occur, and this decline needs to be celebrated. We want to see it keep going down. But why we publish the numbers when all we care about is hospitalization I don’t know. The government can keep the positive test data for planning, but the public just needs % positive and bed numbers. One day this will all end…when the media has a new story to observe over.
“ But why we publish the numbers when all we care about is hospitalization I don’t know.” Because the people running the show are evil.
“I see masks as prevalent as before the 19th (especially among the young). Which, I’m fine with as it’s their freedom.” Sorry, no, masks are de facto mandatory in many workplaces, on TFL and close to mandatory in many other settings unless you want to spend your life battling others. And they are inextricably bound up with the Big Lie. They need to be denounced as vigorously as they were encouraged. They are also still mandatory in many parts of the UK, may become so again in England, and are mandatory all over the world.
“Which, I’m fine with as it’s their freedom“
The kind of “freedom” that young people had in communist dictatorships, to display attitudes in accordance with their systematic state indoctrination.
I’ve always believed we need % positive tests, and that by PCR and other types.
Sorry that is rubbish; not even the UK Government believe RT PCR positive tests are reliable – as they state on the .gov website in answer to many FoI requests on this subject.Such responses consistently state that other clinical assessments are necessary and these PCR tests cannot be relied on in isolation – because they do not distinguish between dead or active material ( and do not test for infectiousness!!!!!). Why do people persist in believing the out and out lies about mass testing when not even the Government believe it is “of value”…?
Yet so many countries and regions join in the mandatory vaccination surge.
Why if its clearly apparent that the ‘delta wave’ is abating and in any case is mild?
Could it because they don’t want any non-vaxed anywhere to represent a ‘control group’ when the visible increase in ADE becomes its own epidemic?
Leaving aside ADE, the existence of a control group that shows no more ill effects from covid than the vaxxed would be a huge problem for the pushers
It’s not worth running around this unless it’s to form a case in law. We all know this is the biggest corruption of government and institutions since … I don’t know when! It is bordering on insanity or evil depending on your religious bent but even as a non-believer I think evil sums it up best.
Evil from the perpetrators and gross negligence from those willingly going along with it because they are either enjoying domination or just want to be in the tribe. This is has all the makings of turning into sadism and genocide either by intent or by sheer ignorance and bad science.
> We have long argued that the ebb and flow of the
> virus isn’t affected by state interventions
how can you ger covid if you meet no persons? thtough the phone or the internet?
In exactly the same way you can step into dog shit without meeting a dog.
Cue ‘story’ about there being a shortage of tests… to justify the reduced positive test result numbers, of course.
Neil Ferguson, based on modelling, predicts that Liverpool will beat Manchester United 1500-1495
Testing has fallen since schools broke up, but I expect it to rise again as people return from holidays in amber list countries shortly and have to take their Day 2 tests.
But why are positive test results being quoted rather than the number of positive results per 100,000 tests?
Toby Young will be aware that Prof Michael Levitt accurately predicted the trajectory of the virus early on in the pandemic. As for the idea of compiling a list of the lockdown zealots who deserve ridicule it will be “exponential” in length and could be laid out across the Great Wall of China. Lockdown idiocy has become a global industry.
If I was as stupid as Lockdown Ferguson by now I would be working as a rag and bone man. It might be more successful for him- dozy bastard
Why is nobody commenting on seasonality being a BIG factor? This time last year “the thing” had virtually disappeared, was there an experimental gene therapy treatment around? Don’t remember one, do you? Why all this praise for something (even in the daily sceptic) that’s killing and maiming people worldwide I genuinely don’t understand.
Please please don’t stop vilifying Prof. Lockdown. The damage he has caused this country is incalculable (lockdown policy, mad cow disease and God knows what else) and he must be brought to book.
Toby, once again the perception is that you are being far too kind with regards to what is criminal incompetence which has impacted all our lives. How can a man with his record of failure, stretching back to the foot and mouth crisis, still be in a job and still be commanding airtime? This joker, with his amateur, spaghetti code ‘models’, predicted an IFR of 3% for COVID 19 infections initially and it all followed from there. He really is in the same predictive league as those misguided souls predicting the end of the world is nigh. His models have been the pretext for every health, economic, and political horror that has followed since the lab escape and there should be a reckoning.
Of course it could be that fewer people are getting tested as they’ve correctly guessed that testing = cases which perpetuates the nonsense.
Bastard should be in jail! We hanged William Joyce for being a propagandist.