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Age-Standardised Mortality Rate Comes in Below Five-Year Average for *Fourth* Consecutive Month

by Noah Carl
24 July 2021 9:06 AM

The ONS announced on Friday that there were 38,611 deaths registered in England in June, which is 9.1% more than in May, and 0.8% more than the five-year average. However, the increase is relative to an exceptionally low value the month before. What about the age-standardised mortality rate (which is the best overall measure)?

In June, the age-standardised mortality rate was 12.5% higher than in May, but was still 6.1% lower than the five-year average. It was also the second-lowest figure on record for that month. (The only lower figure was observed in June of 2019.)

This means that England’s age-standardised mortality rate has been below the five-year average for four consecutive months. In other words, we’ve had four months in a row of “negative excess mortality”.

This chart from the ONS shows the age-standardised mortality rate for the first six months of the year, each year, going back to 2001:

Although 2021’s figure was higher than the figure for 2019, it was 3.6% lower than the figure for 2015 and 2.4% lower than the figure for 2018. This means that – despite higher-than-expected mortality in the winter – the overall level of mortality in the first half of 2021 was actually lower than three years before.

The past four months have “cancelled out” more than 85% of the age-adjusted excess mortality observed in January and February. Unsurprisingly, COVID-19 was not among the leading causes of death in June. All in all, the first half of 2021 has been pretty normal with respect to the average level of mortality.

Tags: Age-adjusted mortalityExcess deathsONS

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66 Comments
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Smelly Melly
Smelly Melly
4 years ago

But but but, people are dying!

22
0
Crimson Avenger
Crimson Avenger
4 years ago
Reply to  Smelly Melly

Yep, around 1,600 every day.

10
0
Lockdown Sceptic
Lockdown Sceptic
4 years ago
Reply to  Crimson Avenger

Bill Gates is the primary funder of the MHRA & owns major shares in both Pfizer & BioNTech – Is there any wonder the MHRA authorised the jab for use in children?
BY DAILY EXPOSE 
https://dailyexpose.co.uk/2021/07/24/bill-gate-funds-mhra-and-shares-in-pfizer/

Stand in South Hill Park Bracknell every Sunday from 10am meet fellow anti lockdown freedom lovers, keep yourself sane, make new friends and have a laugh.

Join our Stand in the Park – Bracknell – Telegram Group
http://t.me/astandintheparkbracknell

HOME EDUCATION – Ex-Primary School Teacher on Resistance GB YouTube Channel: 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZ5oS2ejye0
https://www.hopesussex.co.uk/our-mission

3
0
Hugh
Hugh
4 years ago
Reply to  Crimson Avenger

or 2,000, depending on how you count people. Take away rights from one group and the rest soon follow. As us pro-lifers said all along…

1
0
William Gruff
William Gruff
4 years ago
Reply to  Smelly Melly

Every day in every way. That’s the one disadvantage with life: no one gets out alive.

0
0
stewart
stewart
4 years ago

When the BBC reported the 2020 mortality at the beginning of the year they deliberately misrepresented the data by saying it was the highest civilian death toll since WW2.

They deliberately ignored the size and age of the population which made the mortality for the year in line with the last 10 years.

This information is good for us to know, but it will be suppressed and misrepresented.

The question nobody will be able to answer with confidence is why.

40
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Julian
Julian
4 years ago
Reply to  stewart

The BBC is an organisation now riddled with evil people pursuing an agenda

40
0
Rowan
Rowan
4 years ago
Reply to  Julian

It’s been a warmongering outfit for decades, ask ordinary Iraqis and Syrians. Now it’s wholeheartedly joined the UK government’s war on the British people.

19
0
Jaguarpig
Jaguarpig
4 years ago
Reply to  Rowan

Poor old Yemen as well

4
0
dpj
dpj
4 years ago
Reply to  stewart

Just one of many examples over last 18 months of data being presented out of context to support a conclusion they are trying to arrive at.
A classic example of something similar is cinema box office records which are usually stated as money taken at time but completely ignores inflation etc.
This would be the real top films in proper context
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/chart/top_lifetime_gross_adjusted/?adjust_gross_to=2020

4
0
RickH
RickH
4 years ago
Reply to  stewart

2020 mortality was unexceptional without age standardisation. Of course, the size of the population was absolutely critical in any assessment.

10
0
stewart
stewart
4 years ago
Reply to  RickH

Well, in fairness, accounting for population size but without age standardisation it was the worst year in – gasp – 12 or 13 years. But standardising for age, absolutely nothing exceptional.

4
0
NonCompliant
NonCompliant
4 years ago

There you go again with your facts!!

At this point do you still believe it will make any difference?

21
0
onthefenceinafieldnearyou
onthefenceinafieldnearyou
4 years ago

If Mark Drakeford can let me leave Wales and drive to Westminster, I would guarantee that excess deaths next month would be much much higher. 650 mp’s and 792 unelected lords.

21
0
Jaguarpig
Jaguarpig
4 years ago
Reply to  onthefenceinafieldnearyou

Brilliant

2
0
RickH
RickH
4 years ago

Still bothering with the term ‘excess deaths’? – that should be binned along with ‘cases’. 🙂 But confirmation that reinforces a point that we’ve known since April last year, with the only data that we can be reasonably sure about:

There was nothing exceptional about mortality in 2020 and the 2019-20 and 2020-21 infection seasons.

The only anomaly has been the concentration of deaths in the two peaks – the latter suspiciously correlated with the introduction of the inoculations. However, even that seems another ‘dry tinder’ event, whereby a peak is balanced by a corresponding trough. It looks like deaths in the vulnerable were brought forward this year – rather than being deaths held back, as in 2020.

The balancing of the ‘dry tinder’ effect should not be overlooked in mortality; it’s clear that the underlying curve reflects longer periods than 12 months – another reason why the ‘excess’ notion is flawed.

But … we are so far down the government rabbit hole that I doubt anything will change – even if mortality was the key driver. All our predictions, as rationalists looking at data, have come true … both in terms of actual deaths, and the hypnotized belief in the inconsistency/incompatibility of government actions using false analysis.

Last edited 4 years ago by RickH
19
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Jaguarpig
Jaguarpig
4 years ago
Reply to  RickH

Some good points today cheers

1
0
RickH
RickH
4 years ago
Reply to  Jaguarpig

Thanks

1
0
keithdud
keithdud
4 years ago

The age-standardized mortality rate for 2020 was 1043 (per 100,000) which was lower than every year up to 2008 (1091).

It’s the sudden increase in the rate that scared people from 925 in 2019 to 1043 in 2020. It was a 13% increase in just one year.

It was 2004 in 1960 and dropped steadily almost every year ’till 2019. So it approximately halved in those 60 years.

But put in this context the 2020 figure doesn’t seem to me to justify 3 lockdowns and the costs of furlough and the pingdemic. The government was put under enormous pressure in the spring of 2020 and panicked. I suspect nobody in the cabinet had even heard of an ‘age-standardized mortality rate’.

10
-1
Julian
Julian
4 years ago
Reply to  keithdud

“ I suspect nobody in the cabinet had even heard of an ‘age-standardized mortality rate’.”

Maybe not

But we have, now

Not hard to inform oneself when needed

7
0
RickH
RickH
4 years ago
Reply to  Julian

… and isn’t that a major role of ‘advisors’ – to do that basic spade work and ensure that essential concepts are understood, rather than ride their own hobby-horses?

4
0
milesahead
milesahead
4 years ago
Reply to  keithdud

I believe you are being very kind in ascribing the draconian measures to panic – they have been planned and implemented the same way by almost all the governments in the world; it’s a strategy to implement a social credit system (and get rid of a lot of ‘useless eaters’ at the same time).

8
0
Julian
Julian
4 years ago
Reply to  milesahead

Where the panic defence falls down for me is the vigour with which the government pursued measures to increase panic. If they were merely reacting to public opinion, they would have attempted to calm the waters (which Whitty actually did, briefly) but all the TV, radio, newspaper and billboard ads and the way they presented their stats were all designed to increase fear, in line with the SAGE recommendation.

9
0
RickH
RickH
4 years ago
Reply to  Julian

… but, remember, SAGE (via SPI-B) were essentially told to come up with a propaganda strategy. They were not asked the best way to manage public responses to a pandemic in terms of the best strategy for information in terms of public benefit.

So where did the panic/fear meme ultimately come from, when every prior strategy had emphasized the need for good, anxiety-reducing information?

6
-1
Julian
Julian
4 years ago
Reply to  RickH

That is the question. We may never know the full answer, or know who the leaders and who the followers were. I cannot fathom any scenario in which there were not at least some bad actors and bad faith actions at the very highest level of government and their senior scientific and political advisors, very early on.

5
0
keithdud
keithdud
4 years ago
Reply to  Julian

If you want to know who had an interest in creating panic and turmoil look for those advocating cultural change, political reorganization, and social renewal. They are not hard to spot. One was on the TV recently describing many in government as ‘useless’ and advocating for a new political movement. It has the smell of the 1930s.

2
0
RickH
RickH
4 years ago
Reply to  Julian

“I cannot fathom any scenario in which there were not at least some bad actors and bad faith actions at the very highest level of government”

Agreed. I always steer away from intentional explanations for what can be just stupidity.

But I’ve applied the old Occam shaver and, for once, intentionality is the most parsimonious explanation for some key events, with reinforcing stupidity riding shotgun.

4
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milesahead
milesahead
4 years ago
Reply to  Julian

Indeed – had this been a genuinely dangerous virus akin to the Black Death (and I realise not everyone thinks that was a viral disease), they’d have been trying to allay fears.

Last edited 4 years ago by milesahead
5
0
keithdud
keithdud
4 years ago
Reply to  Julian

I believe the initial response was panic. But once you opt for the lockdown/furlough option it becomes almost impossible to justify ending these measures while the high number of positive tests continue to put up on the internet every day.

The government (particularly SAGE and SPI-B) can’t accept the “loss of face” by admitting the original decision was misguided.

As a consequence of vaccination, there are relatively few deaths but they still persist and recommend working from home and wearing masks. This will only end when the numbers of new +ve tests results are no longer published, or SAGE is disbanded.

3
-1
Julian
Julian
4 years ago
Reply to  keithdud

“I believe the initial response was panic.” I am sure there was an element of panic. But they chose to amplify the level of fear among the public, very early on, to a level unseen in peacetime. I believe the media contracts were in place before lockdowns were introduced. I think the PM and others knew very well that the information and images coming out of China and Italy were distorted, but chose to take the path they chose, for whatever reason.

7
0
RickH
RickH
4 years ago
Reply to  keithdud

“As a consequence of vaccination, there are relatively few deaths”

Evidence??? Don’t get suckered. ARR ~1% – far too low to account for the declining curve; and what happened in April 2020 with no vaccine?

4
0
keithdud
keithdud
4 years ago
Reply to  RickH

OK yes. “As a consequence of vaccination and other changes in the population and the virus” would be more accurate.

1
0
RickH
RickH
4 years ago
Reply to  keithdud

” … dropped steadily almost every year ’till 2019″ etc.

But this historical fall in the mortality rate is beside the point (and I have heard people calling 2020 ‘exceptional’ because it was above the very short-term average).

The question to be answered is simple :

” Is the population standardised mortality rate unprecedented to such an extent that it requires experimentation with unprecedented measures?”

Simple

… and the answer is a resounding “No!!!!!” – higher mortality has been experienced in most years in the last quarter of a century without any major disruption of society.”

Ergo (bluntly) : Government policy is absolutely barmy by any rational criterion.

You don’t need to fart around with any more detailed analysis to reach that conclusion.

7
0
Julian
Julian
4 years ago
Reply to  RickH

Indeed, and at the risk of boring us converts, I think that message is the one this site should focus on. By all means cover what’s going on now, and point out the absurdities, but the basic message you state must be rammed home mercilessly because once it is grasped all the other nonsense is more easily exposed as nonsense and we avoid going down rabbit holes where people trying to defend the government argue about minutiae.

3
0
Sandra Barwick
Sandra Barwick
4 years ago
Reply to  RickH

All true, except in my view replace “barmy” with “sinister”.

1
0
CynicalRealist
CynicalRealist
4 years ago
Reply to  keithdud

Many people seem to think that life expectancy will continue to increase indefinitely – but there’s absolutely no reason to assume that; there will be a natural limit, and any species will have reductions and increases over time – often caused by a particular pathogen. There’s nothing at all unusual about this, and in this case it’s not even a significant increase.

2
0
RickH
RickH
4 years ago
Reply to  CynicalRealist

You’ve touched on a major nonsense fiction : that the declining curve of mortality is a naturally continuing feature, and that it should continue – and certainly not rise above the recent nadir.

It’s known as ‘crap modelling’ – a common feature of contemporary analysis. Driving by looking through the rear window.

It’s wrong on two counts :

  1. The underlying curve of recent mortality is not simple decline – it’s a partial sine wave form, and an upturn was indicated before 2020.
  2. A simple continuation of the steep historical decline in the 19th and 20th centuries would be logically incredibly unlikely, except as one science fiction story.
3
0
stewart
stewart
4 years ago
Reply to  RickH

Actually UN forecasts for developed countries prior to 2020 predicted a steady rise in mortality due to ageing populations. Some countries like Spain had already reached the mortality nadir.

But who cares. It’s not as if properly contextualised information and data has any place in the modern world.

3
0
RickH
RickH
4 years ago
Reply to  stewart

“a steady rise in mortality due to ageing populations”

Spot the logical flaw.

0
-1
RickH
RickH
4 years ago
Reply to  RickH

… but I should also say, that the prediction was correct, if for the wrong attribution.

0
-1
vlysander
vlysander
4 years ago

Its very simple, there is no pandemic.

6
0
chris c
chris c
4 years ago
Reply to  vlysander

They gave a pandemic but no-one died (well not many)

0
0
PatrickF
PatrickF
4 years ago

In my local Waterstones today.
Me: Hello, are you going to have the seats back, for those of us who like to sit and browse our books?
Manager: Not at the moment. Not while things are as they are. We would have to clean and sanitize the seats regularly.
Me: Is that because the virus lands on the seats?
Manager: It’s because people touch the seats.
Me: Oh, I see. So the Covid virus is on the hands?
Manager: Yes, that’s right, and some of our staff are still nervous, but things may improve.
Me: Thank you for explaining. Bye.

Last edited 4 years ago by PatrickF
5
0
CynicalRealist
CynicalRealist
4 years ago
Reply to  PatrickF

I hope they have signs up warning people not to touch the shelves or (gasp!) the books on them!

Hasn’t the concept of surface transfer been pretty much discounted anyway as a likely source of infection?

6
0
keithdud
keithdud
4 years ago
Reply to  CynicalRealist

Most infection is the result of breathing in contaminated air in poorly ventilated rooms. The virus exists in very small “aerosol” particles. These particles will pass through most face masks (much like a marble will pass through scaffolding fixed to the side of a building).

3
0
RickH
RickH
4 years ago
Reply to  CynicalRealist

Yes

1
0
Sandra Barwick
Sandra Barwick
4 years ago
Reply to  CynicalRealist

Less than a one in 10,000 chance. Wiping the bottoms of the sick then rubbing your eyes – that’s probably the one.

0
0
Jaguarpig
Jaguarpig
4 years ago
Reply to  PatrickF

Are they steam cleaning all the books

3
0
RickH
RickH
4 years ago
Reply to  PatrickF

“Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast”
There are an awful lot of White Queens around – all informed by government.

Despite the research, this OCD behaviour is still happening all over the place. The self-catering cottage we were in recently has added a surplus hour before arrival and subtracted one at departure for ritual cleaning (giving a 9 hour window). ‘Guests’ were requested to clean any books touched.

Not their fault – necessary compliance to diktats from Mad Wee Krankie and sidekick advisor Devious Screamer.

4
0
Ruth Sharpe
Ruth Sharpe
4 years ago
Reply to  RickH

Actually, in this case, it’s not Bravetart’s diktat. It comes down to – as everything in this blessed shambles – interpretation of the rules.

Last year, self-catering places were advised to remove everything superfluous, including books, DVDs, overstocked crockery etc etc.

This year, the ‘rules’ are actually more relaxed, but many places have continued with last year’s rules.

As with everything, it is down to common sense & thorough cleaning.

1
0
caipirinha17
caipirinha17
4 years ago
Reply to  PatrickF

Wonder how many of those nervous little darlings are avid nail biters… Makes me smile (and facepalm) when I see people obsessively sanitising their hands / wiping down stuff that might have been touched by some other walking biohazard and then they go and stick their fingers in their mouths…

2
0
DanClarke
DanClarke
4 years ago

How did we go from a benign government to one who asked elderly and ill people to sign DNR requests as soon as Covid kicked off?

4
0
RickH
RickH
4 years ago
Reply to  DanClarke

Good question. And before any dumb-arse kicks off : no it isn’t ‘socialism’ or ‘communism’ (or even modern conservatism, come to that) – or whatever the pet obsession.

It’s something that can only be surmised by intelligent thought – and has a lot of strands.

But it’s not an illusion, although not comprehensive – I experienced it in a very strange way that was pretty ludicrous.

What we do know is that what has passed as ‘parliamentary democracy’ was no safeguard.

4
0
stewart
stewart
4 years ago
Reply to  RickH

Every essential part of the system has failed simultaneously.

Government has overreached.
Parliament has stopped doing its job.
The courts have abdicated any responsibility.
The media have failed to hold power to account.

Instead the essential pillars of democracy” the executive, legislative, judiciary plus the fourth estate have colluded to implement totalitarian rule.

5
0
Julian
Julian
4 years ago
Reply to  stewart

Fifth essential part – the people have complied largely without question. Democracy only works with pushback and scrutiny from the people, at least against the maddest, most excessive, most obviously wrong-headed stuff like this. What has surprised me is how little interest people have shown in finding out more, even people I know well who are interested in how the world works and have the intellect to analyse it. Or seemed to. Fear rendered them blind. It was my fear that woke me up, oddly. I have a history of hypochondria and when covid started I decided if I was going to live in fear I at least ought to understand what the actual risk was.

6
0
RickH
RickH
4 years ago
Reply to  Julian

It was almost the opposite with me. But with parallels. I was diagnosed with cancer in 2013, and that was the beginning of a tale of consequences and intimate acquaintance with risk assessment for real.

I have a background in research and statistical analysis – so when the propaganda campaign took off, I wanted to know what was being hidden – as everything pointed to smoke and mirrors.

It was obvious, after quite basic analysis, that this story was 90% confection, and I ended up quite quickly in wanting to grab the gullible by the throat and asking :

“Do you really want to know about serious risk factors?”

The rest is history

5
0
chris c
chris c
4 years ago
Reply to  Julian

One thing that scared me is how many of the people who had shown scepticism about most of the bollocks rushed for their “vaccines”

0
0
RickH
RickH
4 years ago
Reply to  stewart

That’s a description – not an explanation.

1
0
Sandra Barwick
Sandra Barwick
4 years ago
Reply to  DanClarke

Just typical NHS.

0
0
caipirinha17
caipirinha17
4 years ago
Reply to  DanClarke

Sorry, they asked? Not convinced that was always the case, plus questions over that tricky little issue known as informed consent. Also, those without capacity would have had the DNR matter referred to POA holder/NOK, and those without capacity or POA/NOK were… stuffed.

0
0
chris c
chris c
4 years ago
Reply to  caipirinha17

I understood some people (don’t know how many) were DNR’d without their knowledge let alone permission

0
0
Nessimmersion
Nessimmersion
4 years ago

From the Slog:
In Scotland, between the 8th December 2020 and the 11th June 2021, a total number of 5,522 people died within 28 days of having a dose of a Covid-19 vaccine.

The average number of people dying of Covid-19 in Scotland per month over the same period was 54. That compares to 922 dead shortly after taking the vaccine.

Scottish people are, ergo, 18 times more likely to be killed by vaccine than they are by Covid. (And bear in mind, in the UK as a whole, the “adverse symptoms” reporting system suffers from unexplained discouragement syndrome)

[Goblins from Reuters, the NYT and Guardian shouldn’t waste their fat-chequing time: those numbers are official and the result of an FOI request made to Public Health for Scotland]

https://therealslog.com/2021/07/24/the-saturday-essay-coming-out-of-the-shadows-dead-scots-complete-finks/

3
0
Lockdown Sceptic
Lockdown Sceptic
4 years ago

Bill Gates is the primary funder of the MHRA & owns major shares in both Pfizer & BioNTech – Is there any wonder the MHRA authorised the jab for use in children?
BY DAILY EXPOSE 
https://dailyexpose.co.uk/2021/07/24/bill-gate-funds-mhra-and-shares-in-pfizer/

Stand in South Hill Park Bracknell every Sunday from 10am meet fellow anti lockdown freedom lovers, keep yourself sane, make new friends and have a laugh.

Join our Stand in the Park – Bracknell – Telegram Group
http://t.me/astandintheparkbracknell

HOME EDUCATION – Ex-Primary School Teacher on Resistance GB YouTube Channel: 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZ5oS2ejye0
https://www.hopesussex.co.uk/our-mission

0
0
wildman10
wildman10
4 years ago

Judging against any past average is misleading. As the chart shows, Mortality has effectively been constantly reducing until Covid started, so the true comparator is what mortality would have been had the expected trend continued. The graph shows, contrary to the article’s thrust, mortality is still higher than expected.

Also, beware of generalisations that may hide competing patterns in a fog of averages. There’s an old joke of 2 actuaries clay pigeon shooting where one overshoots by 10 ft and the other undershoots by 10 ft, the 2 then high-fiving as, on average, they were bang on.

The Institute of Actuaries and its Covid group have some excellent articles.

0
0
brachiopod
brachiopod
4 years ago
Reply to  wildman10

The question I would like answering is “how much lower would the number be if those who died within 28 days of receiving the vaccine were removed from the figures?”

0
0
Monro
Monro
4 years ago
Reply to  wildman10

The I of A covid group managed to discuss false positives without even considering PCR test cycle thresholds.

This site has pointed out that the I of A has been guilty of altering its bulletins/numbers to suit the government narrative.

‘Mortality has effectively been constantly reducing until Covid started..’ is a sweeping statement without references, so not useful. Which country/state, age adjusted, obesity adjusted……?

The ONS makes use of five year averages….but then takes out 2020……..so expect mortality to be higher than expected……but is it…..or not really………

Last edited 4 years ago by Monro
0
0

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