The Government’s favoured modellers appear to have settled on a figure for the greater infectiousness of the Delta (Indian) variant: a spanking 60%. Reuters reports.
Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London told reporters that estimates of Delta’s transmission edge over Alpha had narrowed, and “we think 60% is probably the best estimate”.
Ferguson said that modelling suggested any third wave of infections could rival Britain’s second wave in the winter – which was fuelled by the Alpha variant first identified in Kent, south east England.
But it was unclear how any spike in hospitalisations would translate into a rise in deaths, as more detail was needed on how well the vaccine protects against serious illness from Delta.
“It’s well within possibility that we could see another third wave at least comparable in terms of hospitalisations,” he said.
“I think deaths probably would be lower, the vaccines are having a highly protective effect… still it could be quite worrying. But there is a lot of uncertainty.”
Ferguson isn’t the only one making such doom-laden predictions. The usually more sanguine Philip Thomas of Bristol University is also predicting an “enormous” third wave in the summer. It will be “far bigger than the second”, he says, because of the Delta variant. “There is no hiding place. Either you’ve had the virus or been vaccinated, or you are pretty likely to get Covid this summer.” Ah, so another model that doesn’t factor in prior immunity or T-cells. Professor Thomas writes:
But the Indian variant, which now accounts for most Covid infections, has changed everyone’s calculations. Back in April, my model pointed to a fairly negligible rise in infections after lockdown. Not any more. I assume someone with the Indian variant will pass it on to 6.8 others in a fully susceptible population, a far higher multiple than the Kent variant (4.5 others) and the original (three others).
If the Indian variant does spread this quickly (my estimate is in line with the figure quoted by the Government) then it would quickly seek out the one-in-three Britons who are still susceptible: mainly the not-yet-vaccinated. My model shows an enormous final wave, peaking during the middle of next month at anywhere between two million and four million active infections. So we could well be in for even more Covid infections than in the January wave which forced us into a third lockdown. There is no hiding place. Either you’ve been vaccinated or you are pretty likely to get Covid this summer.
What about the vaccines? They won’t stop the huge wave, he argues, though they will limit the damage.
How can this be, you might ask, given the success of vaccination? Because it will spread among the young. Only about a third of the under-forties have been jabbed so far, with just 14% double-jabbed. A good number (my model estimates about one in five) will not come forward to be jabbed at all. We may have protected those most at risk – but the young, who are least likely to be seriously ill, are still susceptible. There are more than enough of them to facilitate a third wave of Covid cases that will be far bigger than the second.
For weeks, Britain has enjoyed the lowest Covid levels in Europe. But we should brace ourselves for worrying headlines. Holiday plans could be affected: countries that are (rightly) fearful of the Indian variant may well want to restrict entry to people from the UK. There will be cries to lock down again. By my estimates, the R-number (the rate of growth of the virus) is already higher than when the Kent variant was at its peak.
Alarming stuff, and Ferguson thinks it’s even worse, Thomas notes, with every infected person infecting nine others. Thomas suggests that Bolton last month gives a glimpse of the third wave, when it saw “the number of confirmed Covid cases surge back to where it was in January”, though with hospitalisations far fewer and among younger people. Not mentioned, though, is that the Bolton “cases” surge in May was largely driven by a surge in testing.
We won’t have to wait long to find out if Professor Thomas is right, as he claims that this enormous (but not very deadly) wave will peak next month, and that the current restrictions aren’t doing anything to stop it: “The model shows that the virus is growing exponentially already; the final step on the roadmap out of lockdown makes little difference. We are already mixing about as liberally as we would otherwise do on a full reopening.”
I admit that I have been a bit surprised by the late spring and early summer infection spike we’re currently seeing. Oddly, it happened simultaneously in many regions including the North East and South East around the end of May, as the latest ZOE data shows. In most places it was too late to be explained by the May 17th lockdown easing (or, in the case of the North West, too early).
Unlike the modellers of doom, I would expect this spike to fizzle out pretty quickly, it being summer, and if the experience of the reopened American states is anything to go by. I guess we’ll find out soon.
But in terms of the Delta variant being hyper-infectious, what I want to know is why it only seems to be highly infectious in the U.K. Everywhere else (except India, of course) it’s hardly making any impact, despite having been around as long as it has in the U.K. Here are some of the latest graphs from CoVariants, with the Delta variant in dark green and Alpha (British) variant in red.
As you can see, in countries other than the U.K. the green Delta stripe has stayed relatively small so far. How can this be if it really is 60% more infectious?
The next few weeks will certainly be interesting, as we watch to see how big the Delta variant spike in the U.K. gets and what the variant does in other countries. But on the evidence right now, I see no reason to worry. And I don’t mean, don’t worry we’ve got vaccines. I mean, vaccines or not, this virus has already done its worst, new variants will not cause a repeat of spring 2020 (look at America), and next winter will be largely like all the others.
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Are they testing vaccinated people ? If they are would that not guarantee a positive even without symptoms?
Have they adjusted the PCR test again? Upped the cycle to the old limits just to be sure ?
And should we see a drop off next week once their test definition actually changes ?
Why are you discussing “variants” when there is no evidence that the virus has been isolated and purified? Please don’t quote the “computer modelling” as proof.
Could it possibly all be invented, a fantasy where they saw opportunities and ran with them long after what they decided was a plague, had gone? How do we know manipulated figures are not still manipulated
“I admit that I have been a bit surprised by the late spring and early summer infection spike we’re currently seeing. Oddly, it happened simultaneously in many regions…”
I admit that I have been a bit surprised by the late spring and early summer infection spike we’re currently seeing. Oddly it happened simultaneously with the ramp up in jabbing the low risk age groups.
There – fixed it for you. 🙂
Because other countries don’t have Boris, Fergusson, Hancock, Valance and Witty, and the other communists in Sage. They probably don’t have their wives deciding on policy either.
Yes – I think we are all a bit surprised and, for that reason, I think we should avoid jumping to conclusions too quickly. This ‘wave’ may well blow over in a couple of weeks but given the level of immunity we should have had before the vaccination rollout and the huge number who have been vaccinated since, it’s difficult to know exactly what’s going on and what we might expect in the Autumn.
I’m not convinced these virus mutations are purely random. There is a possibility they are being driven by selective pressure because of the vaccination program. Some pretty clever people, including Luc Montagnier (Nobel Laureate), have been suggesting this might happen. In fact LM thinks it is happening.
Maybe the late autumn weather we had in May caused a spike in the last virus lingering areas of high density population.
Possible – but the mutations don’t appear to be random.
Richmond Borough had an unusual spike of 32 positive tests on 31st May. Since then it has toddled along at false positive levels of an average of 12, until June 8th (last day for which figures were given) when it dropped to 8.
So, the banner newspaper headline should be “Covid cases drop by 50%”. Or not….
Why the hell is Ferguson even being quoted, let alone consulted, with the use of public money, no doubt, to pay him for spouting his tripe?
I look at it more positively. As long as Ferguson keeps being wheeled out, the fraud is shown up transparently.
It is worth remembering that the ‘UK’ variant was created in a lab in Kent when they were mucking around doing tests and the like on a dying man whose family permitted them to do so. a very dangerous pastime indeed. Unsurprisingly it escaped and is charging around causing issues.
A lab created disease in the first place, made worse by people in a lab mucking around with it. Well I never. We have so nearly managed to play out the full narrative of The Omega Man
I booked a flight from Heathrow to Montreal two weeks ago leaving July 15th. I have just had an email saying the flight is cancelled. There are no flights to rebook. I am certain they have been told in advance of restrictions planned. Anyone else had this happen?
That’s bad. I was contemplating going to Washington to give evidence in some hearings that are being set up.
Have you heard of other flights being cancelled, including to non-North American destinations?
“Philip Thomas of Bristol University is also predicting an “enormous” third wave in the summer. It will be “far bigger than the second”, he says, because of the Delta variant. “There is no hiding place. Either you’ve had the virus or been vaccinated, or you are pretty likely to get Covid this summer.””
So Philip Thomas doesn’t believe that vaccines stop the spread of the virus, so the argument that getting jabbed benefits others disappears, and so does the argument for vaccine passports.
Oh well, roll on herd immunity by August, then we can put this entire insane episode to bed.
Exactly. A vaccine passport is pointless since it’s now obvious that the vaccine does not prevent transmission.
Or the figures for cases are wrong
Too many sources are detecting increases.
Unless they’ve been got at
Not a theory I personally subscribe to, but possible
There’s only one source of cases. surely? The corrupt testing system.
In view of the obvious fraud associated with testing, I’m not at all sure there has been any increase.
It’s a cold
More prevelent in winter but……
Coronaviruses are year round – even in summer
In hot countries and in frozen wastelands
We seem to have a particular lot of naive mediocre people running the country now, sitting wide eyed at the Greta child while she lectured them and now we have them still hanging on to words of Ferguson, the man who has so far not got any data correct.
‘mediocre’: wow, you are generous!
meant to put worthless!
They are executing the cabal’s plan very well. I’m talking about the minions here, such as the worldwide governments and servile serpents etc. Some are “smart”, some dumb. Motivations vary: greed, misplaced “belief” in the agenda, blackmail, psychopathic desire for control. All useful idiots. Beria was shot…they won’t escape their fates either.
it is an error to believe imho (as TY does, or claims to) that they are incompetent or guided by “error in strategy”. The strategy is brilliant; tragically the objective is satanic.This evil shit show is going to get so much darker…
Phew! that’s a relief – Ferguson predicting doom.
As you were!
There seems to be a real wave of globalist funded frauds in the science world. I predict a tsunami of propaganda on 21 June. Another Autumn Lockdown and even more hidden vaccine deaths over the winter.
In the meantime Boris will kowtow to a senile old man, President Trump will be proven correct over CCP, Wuhan, HCQ, The laptop from hell and the stolen election. None of which will be acknowledged by the sea of corrupt government officials throughout Europe, who will drown under the tidal wave of opposition when the urchins rise up and bite them.
This is becoming hilarious. First B117 was 40% and now that “Indian” variant has taken over it’s another 60% more infections.
If they went back in time they would see that every wave (and every ripple) is dominated by whichever variant gets its foot in the door first, because of either a tiny advantage, or just luck.
This would imply an R0 for the original strain of about 0.0001 and they would struggle to explain why we ever had a pandemic.
“Ah, so another model that doesn’t factor in prior immunity or T-cells.” …or seasonality. Summer respiratory virus peaks?? Eh? What planet are these reality deniers living on. How has the denial of seasonality been accepted as one of the gospels?
Doesn’t matter how ridiculous or off the mark their predictions turn out to be, the Media just wheel these muppets out time and again. Funny that ain’t it?
The only political solution to this nightmare is going to come from a new party.
It is very difficult for a virus to achieve a 60% increase in infection rate with a very small set of mutations.
It is far far easier to explain this ‘increase’ as being a result of the modelling assumptions being incorrect.
The most likely error in the modelling (given that it is partially unknown) is in the efficacy of the vaccines against India variant.
We’ll have a wave this summer, but it’s not going to be as bad as described by the fearmongers.
You give far too much credence to both modelling and vaccines.
I’ve got Professor Thomas’ key predictions noted down – his article appeared in the Spectator yesterday – and will enjoy revisiting them over the next few weeks in the comments sections to make fun of his predictions as they fail to come to pass.
Ask yourself this. If governments & their scientific advisors around the world have been lying to us about every central point in relation to this virus for 15-18 months, would you now expect what they’re saying to be (a) accurate & properly contextualised or (b) a pack of lies?
Don’t be frightened of the virus, it’s at most a little worse than seasonal influenza but with much better treatments.
Do be aware that EVERYTHING Govts & advisors have told us is lies, and the media are deeply involved in the propaganda.
Do be frightened of government. Deranged doesn’t start to cover it.
Don’t get vaccinated.
Do NOT allow vaccine passports to come into force = end of human freedoms.
Take back your freedoms immediately, with overwhelming conviction, cheerfulness & peace.
We can still rescue the old normal. But you’ve got to want it. Otherwise we’ll be shoved through the gates of hell.
Agreed. But how do we stop vaccine passports when so many of the population will and are getting jabbed because they think its the only way to get their overseas holiday? It requires a deSantis type of political figure to say ‘no’ , and reverse the pysop. No-one in Europe, nevermind the UK comes close.
If we simply refuse to play along with their game, don’t get vaccinated, refuse second injections if you’ve already had the first, refuse all booster injections, when enough people don’t have a valid “passport”, the whole system should collapse like a house of cards. Keep resisting. We have to keep believing in our own power to defeat this.
yes, again agreed, but if the numbers of people getting jabbed are anything like reality, then ‘our’ resistance is not going to stop the introduction and use of the ‘passports’. and as Mike has previously described, once that use gets above 50% its game over.
The EUs travel pass has as many holes as a swiss cheese, and they state it will be dropped when the WHO declare the ‘health crisis’ over. But no-one believes that and it won’t stop everyone travelling across borders in Europe using the pass.
I don’t go around asking friends, family members, acquaintances and colleagues if they’ve been jabbed, but as it’s something that people love to talk about, post on forums and on company Intranets, I know most of them have so I would be inclined to believe the official figures.
I know that among my friends and family, I am the only one to ‘decline’ the damn thing.
Almost the same with me
I think that this is the general experience. It is hard to overestimate the number of people who have bought into the lying narrative of terror.
I don’t think I’d ever have imagined the depths of sociopathy that has been induced so easily.
Yes even people with whom I have had sceptical and sarcastic conversations about all the bollocks have gone for their jabs.
Me too…
For the passport system to work, people will have to keep on having their booster injections, indefinitely. The more side effects people experience (and it seems to be the under 65’s who are having the worst experience in this regard), the less inclined people will be to get “jabbed” again. And most people have probably written off the chance of going abroad this summer, so the incentive for younger people to get fully “vaccinated” is diminishing. Hence why we’re seeing fewer people having the 1st and 2nd injections as the age group decreases. The fact that the government is trying to ramp up the fear again and push the “vaccines” as hard as possible tells me they aren’t convinced they’re going to get enough people to comply.
Once an electronic vaccine passport exists, it really wouldn’t matter to the perpetrators that people will be reluctant to get 3rd or 4th vaccination, because the VaxPass holder knows it’ll go invalid if they don’t get the top ups.
I agree, and I predict they will drop the option to obtain a valid certificate via testing or antibodies. Not too long before it’s vaccination or no travel.
Marketing and brand management, after all that’s how they got us here. I would like to say we use scientific reasoning, but the vast majority are scientifically and numerically illiterate, so that won’t work.
Shock and awe is limited to peaceful demonstration in large numbers.
A small thing, but we need a sign, a logo or brand identifier, to recognise other sceptics when out and about. At the moment we are all isolated and alone, it would be so nice to be able to recognise another rational human. It is easier to defy the idiocy if you are not alone.
I have cancelled a holiday with a friend because the company required travellers to have had at least the first jab before travelling. My friend is completely puzzled by this and keeps telling me that I ‘just have to have the one’, otherwise I will lose the deposit and have no holiday. She does not understand why I would rather lose £150 than have an experimental vaccine!
That sounds illegal, especially if they changed their terms and conditions since you paid your deposit. You should at least get your deposit back, and I’d be inclined to threaten them with discrimination to boot.
Great comment Mike. Really appreciate you taking the time to comment here.
I totally agree with your sentiments, Mike, but we need numbers to ‘take back freedom’.
I see ‘disobedience’, but not active opposition and understanding. Yesterday, for instance, I had member of my family trying to convince me to take the snake oil. The motives were quite genuine – based on a swallowing of the mythical Delta variant and the minor local PCR upticks.
But we are prevented from having the treatments.
I’m not prevented from sourcing my own supplies from India. I’ve lost all respect for rules & all trust in the institutions. I’ll trust my own assessments any day.
So I’ve bought hydroxychloroquine & ivermectin.
I have zinc. I’ll pass on azithromycin because though it’s activity in Covid19 isn’t antibiotic but anti inflammatory, I’m not comfortable taking something which is going to indiscriminately kill my intestinal flora.
Inhaled budesonide you should be able to get.
Long time reader here, finally joined today.
First of all – thank you Mike for continuing to speak up. Thank you so much!
I have lived in the UK for more than 20 years but having been born behind so called Iron Curtain I can smell bullshit from hundreds of miles away – and that’s exactly how I knew very, very early that all this was the crudest and vilest propaganda that even the communists would have been ashamed of: it is so primitive and transparent.
I can confirm: as Mike and many here say – it will only end when people stop obeying.
I agree the whole thing stinks to high heaven
To what do you attribute the increase in symptomatic cases shown by Zoe?
I don’t mind being downvoted, but do me the courtesy of explaining the increase in symptomatic cases shown by Zoe. I’m not saying it’s genuine, or even of concern (though it’s obviously of concern to someone) but I can’t overly explain it and it be significant in some way.
Maybe summer colds? Hayfever?
One of the other forty or so respiratory viruses? Possibly hay fewer (allergic rhinitis)?
Mike, you inspire me always.
Just drip fed BS – ignore
These charlatan modellers are just government tools (in every sense) being used to continue the lockdowns and the move to a more authoritarian society.
Why is anyone listening to Ferguson, a theoretical physicist?
He’s admitted not even having an A level in biology. How is he deciding which of numerous, very important assumptions to adopt? Their relative values? The interrelationships between a handful of pivotal biological functions?
He is not going to be able to do it, explaining quite a lot of his historically comically bad predictions.
I’d not spend any time on Dr Chicken Gizzards.
One of the main question marks I have of the original model he made, is the inclusion of the “do nothing” column. There was lot’s of talk about mitigation v suppression. There was an intro that swung heavily around pandemic influenza, for a coronavirus that as a layman I would presume acts differently.
This idea of “do nothing” completely ignores years of expertise gathered by doctors and teams around the world, treating respiratory viruses and illness, with bespoke solutions, often combination off the shelf drugs. It ignores the advances of modern medicine and science itself since 1918.
I suspect that “do nothing” might have been a suggestion to include ( maybe the behavioural lot? ). Only way we’d find out, is if there was a record of emails and conversations with Ferguson in the lead up.
Ferguson is a total arsehole, he was wrong in every predicted model from BSE to Covid . His reputation as a tosser is right
the Downing street variant is the only one of concern
Isn’t this just a testdemic? Test more people, you find more ‘cases’. Overall death numbers are down.
Yesterday it was reported that the test positivity rate had increased to 44 per 100,000. With 7.5k odd daily “cases” that suggests 17m (a quarter of the population) being tested every day. Sounds like a testdemic.
The share of positive tests metric on OurWorldInData has increased from a low of 0.4% to 0.6% in recent days. Still well within the bounds of the false positive rate for the PCR test. There’s really nothing going on, nationally.
That’s the key thing.
Here’s a challenge. Measure the operational false positive rate every day, by passing some blinded virus-free swabs through the entire chain of custody.
I’ve been asking for this for almost a year.
If they did this, my prediction is that the oFPR is slightly higher now than a few weeks ago.
No cases, zero prevalence in the community & probably been on the floor (corrected for false positives).
Remember: everything we’ve been told is a lie.
None of this is accidental. Nit in relation to PCR mass testing. It was swept out of the NHS pathology labs & into private “Lighthouse Labs”. Inside there is a criminal enterprise, ripping off taxpayers & stupidly breaching all good scientific procedures.
“But in terms of the Delta variant being hyper-infectious, what I want to know is why it only seems to be highly infectious in the U.K.“
What’s the ethnic makeup of the U.K. and where is this variant outbreak occurring?
Who is being hospitalised? Who turns up to hospital more often?
Mixed and it occurs in areas with a large delta population…
As opposed to a large epsi-minus population?
I have your third wave here: it’s called flu season and will be used to justify lockdowns come winter and the blame placed on the ‘anti-vaxxers’ and the young.
Text book manipulation.
Yup.
Like the current ‘information’ that those in hospital are those who are unvaccinated. We have only their evidence for this, and in fact many of those who are in hospital that I know of have had reactions to the vaccine – do they test positive because of the vaccine? I imagine so.
And if they are less than 14 days since vaccination, they will count as unvaccinated.
The third wave is only what ought to have been the first, largely harmless, wave, in the young and in students last summer, the creation of a solid base for herd immunity, with little disease or damage. ISTM
If hardly anyone gets sick, then it’s not even a thing, let alone a wave.
Neil Ferguson of imperial college London… ‘60% is probably the best estimate” – it must be true then.
About as accurate as his other predictions probably – why is anyone still listening to that man?!
Because he’s the government’s useful idiot. Without such idiot “experts”, this shitshow would never have got off the ground let alone kept running.
Absolutely. For the government to stop listening to him now would be an admission they were wrong to listen to him at the very beginning. Kind of reminds me of that nano-second just before you know you are about to be in a serious car crash; you close your eyes, grit your teeth, hold on for dear life and brace for impact… nothing else matters in that moment, apart from self preservation. The government are prepared to deal with the consequences later, but for now, they just want to get out of the car alive.
Given Ferguson’s terrible track record, I think the Government knew exactly what they were doing from the start when they began referring to this idiot. He still serves a purpose for them.
I want to believe that all of this is just terrible decisions made by incompetent politicians, based on poor science, all with the aim of arse-covering self preservation. At same point big tech, big pharma, big money all realised this was a wonderful opportunity to get even richer and to push a green agenda. This is what I want to believe as the alternative is just so damn horrifying. It literally breaks my heart to think my children will have to grow up in a world so full of evil if this has actually been planned 🙁
Unfortunately I think early adoption of terms and phrases such as “lockdown”, “new normal”, “build back better” etc across multiple nations suggests our great leaders were referring to the same playbook from the start. That doesn’t necessarily mean they are all evil, but they are at the very least probably narcissistic sociopaths drunk on power.
No, no, no. He’s Wormtongue. He provokes and winds up the pantomime, he controls, with others, the Government. Look up his role in swine flu. He deliberately exaggerates, and in so doing he does the bidding of a master elsewhere, who has a grandiose plan to save the world by bringing it under absolute medical control, and has other Wormtongues in other countries.
Any reasonable excuse for a pandemic was going to do.
Covid 19 is a just a vehicle.
I don’t think they want ”to save the world”. I think the Morlocks want to keep just enough Eloi around to make the world comfortable for themselves. There aren’t many of these Morlocks, so they won’t need many Eloi to make it work.
That he is both corrupt/bought and an idiot makes him very useful indeed. I think there are many players in this whole shitshow that fit that bill, including the government.
How far off the mark does this man have to get before they sack him? He now seems to be in the realm of plucking his figures from a tombola
It’s Bill’s tombola.