There are reports that there is increasing optimism across Government that step 4 of the roadmap – full reopening on June 21st – will be able to proceed as planned, with Boris Johnson said to be unpersuaded that the data suggests a need for delay. Katy Balls in the Spectator has the inside track.
As things stand, Johnson is unpersuaded that the data suggests there will have to be a delay. Instead, he thinks some of the gloom has been overdone. Suggestions that the chances of all restrictions being lifted next month are “close to nil” have not landed well with ministers. “Anyone who tells you they know what is going to happen doesn’t know,” says one peeved Government figure.
At this week’s cabinet, attendees were given a Covid presentation by the Deputy Chief Medical Officer, Jonathan Van-Tam, which suggested that the data had not got significantly worse since Friday. Downing Street hopes that in a week or so they will have a clearer sense of how much of a problem the Indian variant is – most crucially, how transmissible it is. The current understanding in No. 10 is that it’s a little more contagious but not as bad as originally feared. One minister says there is a growing sense that “things are not as bad as they first seemed”.
Crucially, the vaccines appear to work against the variant. As long as that remains the case, any extension of lockdown measures will be a hard sell to Tory MPs. “There is a strong sense of relief among the public that the crisis is over, we can’t go back there,” says a minister. Concerned Tory MPs have been making their opposition to any delay known to the whips. “It would mean we snatched defeat from the jaws of victory,” says one.
While things ought to be clearer in a week or so once more comprehensive data is in, the more likely scenario for June 21st right now is not a delay but a push to water down what an “end to restrictions” looks like in practice. “Everyone is using the variant to get their favourite political argument over the line – whether it’s keeping social distancing, border controls, or vaccine passports,” says one official. However, what encourages MPs and ministers who wish to see an end to restrictions is that they believe Johnson ultimately wants the same. “We have a Prime Minister who given half a chance would lift restrictions on everything,” notes a minister.
Depressing that we have Government ministers who see an overblown panic about a variant as an opportunity to advance various illiberal causes such as social distancing, border restrictions and vaccine passports. But doesn’t that just sum up the Government response to the whole pandemic – unscrupulous actors ready to exploit fear as an opportunity to advance various illiberal causes?
If Boris thinks the gloom is being overdone about the Indian variant, wait till he sees how well U.S. states that reopened months ago are doing compared to the overcautious and, we now know, entirely reversible timetable he has imposed on poor England. If he really would lift all restrictions on everything “given half a chance”, why doesn’t he take a leaf out of Florida, Texas and numerous other states’ books and do just that? Who is denying him that “chance”?
Here are the latest graphs on test positivity in the Indian variant “hotspots”, showing a notable lack of growth.
Stop Press: SAGE member Professor Andrew Hayward appeared on BBC Breakfast to claim the Indian variant risks pushing Britain into a “third wave” of coronavirus and to call for all travel to be “minimised”. The Telegraph reports:
Prof Andrew Hayward, who researches infectious diseases at University College London, said he was “very concerned” about the Indian variant due to its higher transmissibility.
Asked on BBC Breakfast whether the country was at the start of the third wave, he said “I think so” and called for travel to be “minimised full-stop”.
“I think what we can see is that this strain can circulate very effectively, although it was originally imported through travel to India, it’s spread fairly effectively first of all within households and now more broadly within communities, so I don’t really see why it wouldn’t continue to spread in other parts of the country,” he said.
“Obviously we’re doing everything we can to contain the spread, but it’s likely that more generalised measures may start to be needed to control it.”
Since the Government seems to have no intention of imposing new restrictions at the moment, it won’t take long to see whether this latest prophecy of doom comes true.
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Indian variant continues to suppress all cause mortality
Latest data out – its dropped off a cliff
There is 1 person in hospital who has tested positive for covid in the last 28 days in the entire of my county of Buckinghamshire
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhstrust&areaName=Buckinghamshire%20Healthcare%20NHS%20Trust
and still the restrictions go on. But then its data not dates you see
just to add – if the pandemic isn’t ‘officially’ over now then it’s never going to be over
maybe they will lift the final restrictions when no-one can remember anyone being in hospital with covid?
Well, if they end the status of ‘pandemic’, they will have to stop with emergency use of so-called ‘vaccines’. I can’t see that happening soon!
Exactly – and why the definition of ‘pandemic’ was altered to include a cold virus crossing borders.
Spot on !
Can’t do that. There are vaccines to sell.
yes exactly, so basically never…. glad everyone gets it… now what?
For the nation to wake up and smell the Covid con coffee?
They haven’t run out of countries yet for variants, and possibly when they have, there will be claims that aliens have landed and we now have the Mars variant
It ever ceases to amaze me anyway, that many people are so fearful when they hear of a high, bogus anyway see link, incidence number, as those people who made up that number are all sitting at home or in a hospital then, meaning that they can’t run into them anyway, but which is exactly what the fearful fear and think it means for them.
https://www.rubikon.news/artikel/die-inzidiotie
Keyboard playing up?
Good reason to lockdown to 2030
Would be nice, but not explain why he and red state US governors fell for and participated in the authoritarianscam in the first place.
Much more likely, they just play good cop/bad cop here and give the plebs/frogs some breathing space, before being ordered to turn the heat back up again from the autumn.
And it’s booster gene therapies forever anyway, as all ‘vaccine’ manufacturers publications and applications, including Valneva and Novavax, already show.
Problem is that there will be another invented “scary” variant coming along, probs early September, and with our frightened jelly- spined leader Johnson, who has said that he is not afraid of getting really “draconian”, its just a delaying of execution regarding lockdowns. Hope i`m wrong though.
no I don’t think you are wrong at all and I reckon it could be here far sooner than September
I’ve got the discovery of the xxxx Variant in my calendar for June 14th. I put it there 2 months ago!
They are just waiting for the ADE variant. Unfortunately there may not be enough wild virus going around to trigger it yet, unless they have something specially crafted and ready to release when enough have been “vaxxed”.
Bat Lady is winding up her charm.
It’s here! The Sheffield variant. September would be far too late. What we need is to release people just late enough that should the cases of this endemic virus begin to rise somewhat during the autumn then they can say “you see! It’s because we let you out! It was absolutely fine during April, May and June when you were locked up. Then in July and august when you started mingling and spreading it, cases have risen in September!”
Aliens.
Is this supposed to make us think the Government is reasonable??!
I suspect this is all political showboating just to make Boris Johnson look tough and in charge of the situation.
it will all have changed by this time next week – like a cat playing with a mouse before going in for the final kill
Most probably, as they then continue in the spirit of being reasonable and responsible of course, to insist that injection passports are the way forward in order to monitor the ongoing safety of the people. It will be crucial that there is stringent surveillance of the people – for the time being, for a period of 3 months, 3 years (insert whatever) – so that the government can take appropriate steps when deemed necessary to protect everyone…and some people will fall for it.
Official Govt positions will change as frequently as the wind direction. There will be no end to this while ever the same criminals remain in their positions. Regardless of what does happen 21st June, the wider population are now just Pavlovian dog’s. We’ll be trapped in another ‘lockdown’ soon enough.
Bozo ‘thinks’?
There’s newfor you.
Should the headline read
‘Pig Dictator changes course when threatened with violence by the population of Bolton’
Trans : So Mr Toad is keeping his options open, pending the wind direction.
Yes. I suppose it might be mildly interesting to those interested in Westminster politics to try to read the tea leaves but setting much store by anything that comes out of his mouth is madness.
More importantly, the real focus should not be on whether we’re to be granted X or Y “freedom” but on ways to discredit the narrative and un-brainwash people.
Yes. Inalienable democratic rights can’t be ‘granted’ in any philosophical sense by temporary governments in a true democracy. By definition.
The de-programming of people is indeed the real problem where the most common channels of communication have been commandeered as propaganda streams in North UKorea
Correct.
well if the indian variant wont keep them locked up and keep my online business booming maybe a new one will come along… where there is a profit, there is a way
No he doesn’t. It’s all scripted.
And whose fault is that that it was overdone? You great fat undisciplined, thoughtless, whim-driven communist fraud.
Surely, the primary measure of a virus or a new strain of a virus in view of its impact on the health of a nation should not be its transmissibility, but it’s severity.
It is widely known in the epidemiology community that viruses tend to mutate and evolve to become less severe but more transmissible.
From the virus’s perspective, this makes sense, for all organisms in the biosphere have one thing in common: The “biological imperative”, or the instinct to act in a way that ensures one’s survival and replication. This is true also of a virus. A virus evolves mind-bendingly quickly and this one has produced literally thousands of variants of itself, due to the ordinary Darwinian selection pressures driving its evolution. Crucially, it is not in a pathogen’s best interest to kill its host, as this ensures the opposite: that is CANNOT survive OR replicate.
Therefore a virus will evolve over time to become more transmissible but less deadly, so that it can live and replicate (mostly harmlessly) in its host’s body without killing it (like the common seasonal cold).
Once again, a new, more informative metric needs to be analyzed concerning the Indian variant. This should be the case rate compared to the death rate. Of course the situation in, for example, Bolton currently is that the death rate has increased slightly, in parallel with (but not in proportion to) a sharp increase in cases.
But the inevitable culmination of that state of affairs is that a higher proportion of unvaccinated people will gain natural immunity to the Indian variant, and push this variant down to insignificant death and hospitalization rates, even when the cases may be increasing (also depending on the test-rate of course).
This trend will be bolstered by the fact that vaccine uptake is increasing in all parts of the country, including Bolton.
The people need to act like viruses: “ in a way that insures their survival and replication.”
Spread firstly within households and then within the community? Sounds like the point of lockdown then is to ensure everyone you live with is also infected first and then everyone else too…
Rise in number of Indian Covid variant cases means plans to scrap maximum of 30 attendees likely to be pushed back
More nonsense brought to you by the United Kingdom government, supported b their “advisors and who else? I think we all know. So much cash has flowed during the past 15 months between hands. The current cash cow are private COVID tests for travel. You are NOT ALLOWED to use an nhs test, even though there is a COVID test centre on every corner in the country without one person being tested. You would have thought with just a soupçon of ingenuity, the nhs would have seen this as an opportunity to recover some of their losses. Charge a traveller £ for a COVID swab test. But no, that cash is going to someone else. Who? Who were awarded these contracts? How did, overnight, hundreds of companies pop up who were licensed to collect and perform COVID swabs. God I wish everything in government ran this efficiently such as border control at the airport.
The government has been very clever. They have appeased the travel industry by “opening up” travel corridors. They have appeased the uk citizen by saying you can travel to,these few places. On the other hand, they are going making it as difficult and expensive as possible and continue to use scare tactics about your risk of travel. You cannot make this stuff up. What is next? There will be something. We all know that.
It is vital to society that if these predictions are seen to be as foolhardy as they appear, that these individuals are held to account. Those scientists epidemiologists and Public Health advisors have been responsible for deaths of patients who would have survived pre pandemic. The use of alarmist predictions has wilfully engendered a fear in society by promoting the Covid19 first health service and requires external investigation.
He does more U turns than a dodgy sat nav. He is a mess in every respect, yet the great British public are still hanging on his every word judging by local elections. I am a lifelong Tory voter, no more. I voted Freedom Alliance, but as expected, the candidate got very few votes.
I suspect that Boris is becoming rapidly aware that the nation with so many vaccinated, are now wanting action to lift the Covid regulations.His SAGE cohorts are in a mood to hang him out to dry if he goes against their advice, which we all consider to be flawed. Fear is a popular weapon for the politicians to control the populace (False Evidence Appearing Real).
Dr Yeadon has explained that this so-called variant is so close to the original as to be of no consequence and is certainly milder, which, even if it were a little bit more infectious, doesn’t matter. All that needs to happen it seems to me and in view of Boris’s apparent dislike of removal of our freedoms, is he needs to find his spine and declare it’s over, everyone should stop being fearful, open up and travel nearly freely.
If you start with the assumption that everything Govt & their advisors tell you is a LIE, you’ll find life gets a lot easier.
Ain’t that the truth? Works for me!!