The latest model of doom from Government advisory group SAGE appeared yesterday, predicting a ludicrous 10,000 hospital admissions a day in mid-July in a vaccinated population (nearly three times the January peak) because of the Indian variant – and that’s the central scenario. Furthermore, the researchers don’t even think the Indian variant is more deadly or particularly good at evading vaccines. So how do they conclude it will precipitate such a calamity?
Professor Adam Kucharski, a SAGE modeller from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), explains their reasoning:
The issue is that many people have a mental image that we’ve [already] had the biggest possible epidemic waves, whereas we’ve actually had ones that are relatively small compared to what could have happened without control measures in place. Because of these controls, only a fraction of the people who could have got infected in the past year or so have been infected, so they’re still out there. Of course, for many of these people vaccines have now decreased their risk substantially. But a very large number of infections that come with a very small individual level of risk can produce a similar outcome to a smaller epidemic that carries a larger individual level of risk.
Maths whizz Glen Bishop, writing for Lockdown Sceptics, has shown why SAGE’s assumptions are so unrealistic as to produce these highly implausible scenarios. In their central scenario, for example, their assumptions imply that up to half of the UK will be simultaneously infected in one week in mid-July. This is despite the January peak only having around 2% of the population infected at one time, according to the ONS.
Another of the models’ big assumptions, prominent in what Prof Kucharski says above, is that lockdowns and social distancing have successfully suppressed the virus and that it is only because they continue in some form that the flood of infections, hospitalisations and deaths is held back. The latest modelling starkly shows how, even with a high vaccination coverage as in the UK, such an assumption can produce predictions so dire they send twitchy Governments reaching for the lockdown order.
As the SAGE briefing says:
At this point in the vaccine rollout, there are still too few adults vaccinated to prevent a significant resurgence that ultimately could put unsustainable pressure on the NHS, without non-pharmaceutical interventions. … It is a realistic possibility that this new variant of concern could be 50% more transmissible. If [the Indian variant] does have such a large transmission advantage, it is a realistic possibility that progressing with all roadmap steps would lead to a substantial resurgence of hospitalisations.
In fact, there is no evidence (outside models, which are not evidence) that lockdown measures or social distancing have any significant impact on reducing Covid infections or deaths. This is why the states in America which removed their restrictions in March (Texas) or last autumn (Florida) or never imposed them (South Dakota) are doing no worse, and often better, than many states which maintained strict restrictions throughout the winter (see the graph above). Sweden demonstrates a similar point in Europe.
The depressing truth, though, is that sceptics have largely failed to get this basic point across to those in charge and their scientific advisers. It’s not as though the evidence is not there. There are numerous peer-reviewed articles in leading journals that set out the evidence on this, and more keep appearing. Leading scientists have raised their heads to make the evidence-based case.
Graphs like the above, which should by themselves undermine the entire lockdown edifice, are easy to produce. Leading journalists such as Fraser Nelson, writing in one of the leading Tory newspapers, the Telegraph, has pointed repeatedly to the evidence on this. The data is plain for all to see and the voices highlighting it are not marginal or lacking in credibility.
Yet here we are again, with another model built on dubious assumptions and a presumption of lockdown efficacy once more imperilling our liberty. Freedom has never felt so fragile as in these past 14 months, when access to basic liberties has rested on the evidence-free assumptions made by a small group of mathematical modellers whose word seems to be taken as holy writ by those in charge.
Adam Kucharski is on Twitter. So why not ask him (politely!) why, if so many people remain so susceptible to this virus and its variants as to produce such dire predictions, Florida, Texas and South Dakota have fared no worse than places which have imposed or maintained restrictions? I’ve put the graph as the featured image to make it easy to share – just put a link to this article in the tweet and the graph should appear. If you get any answers from him, why not email them to us here.
To join in with the discussion please make a donation to The Daily Sceptic.
Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.
I see #TwoTierKeir is trending, shortened to 2TK.
Prediction: Within 6 months, 2TKQ+ or 2TKTQ+ will be in use as a moniker.
https://www.globalresearch.ca/pact-future-planetary-technocracy-global-crises-global-corporatocracy/5864483
Note for all – I was timed out before I could finish editing this piece so I had to start again.
To the downticker – go and take your medication.
The bit just below the DT headline…
“amid speculation of a far-right rally”. These f*ckn people have to give an excuse for Muslim attacks on whites, but no mention ever of the three little girls slaughtered by an immigrant animal to defend the actions of white rioters. I could not hate MSM and the government more.
Quite clearly, Rudakubana is not an immigrant, whatever else he may be.
I don’t give a flying f*ck what the state-approved official definition of an immigrant is. If a child of immigrants refuses to integrate into a society, and then slaughters 3 children, they’re an immigrant. They’re certainly not part of the indigenous population. Call them whatever you want, your silly little semantics completely miss the point, so you need to update your database. I can’t believe I’ve been successfully goaded, and actually reacted to, AI.
Nobody gives a ‘flying f*ck’ what some random punter on the interweb, most particularly not you, thinks of much at all.
The fact remains that someone born in this country and educated in this country is most certainly not an immigrant.
So, out of morbid curiosity – and to test the bounds of your Google-gathered robotic intelligence – what definition does your algorithm give to describe the child of immigrants that rejects their adopted culture and slaughters three little girls as they pretend to be Taylor Swift? This one will test your machine learning capabilities because it throws emotion into the mix.
Drop the silliness. You are making yourself look ridiculous.
Rudakubana is a first generation British citizen and child murderer.
He will receive his just deserts.
“He will receive his just deserts” …..oh no he will not..
Kept warm and fed for the rest of his miserable life
He should have been shot dead at the scene
What he will receive will, no doubt, be a great deal worse than that.
👍 👍 👍
Ok I wouldn’t normally interact but if pedantry is at play here technically he is classed as a first generation immigrant, as they like to class themselves.
I know I’m opening myself to rants here but
“Nobody gives a ‘flying f*ck’ what some random punter on the interweb, most particularly not you, thinks of much at all.”
I certainly do as that’s why I support DS so that I can give a FF to what others say, even you.
Well done 👏
If you wish to ‘interact’ it would be more useful, someone might actually give a FF, if you stuck to the facts:
You are a British citizen if you were both:
Here we go. Yes indeed to be accurate they are classed as British by us. I did clarify though that, as many I have spoken to, they also class themselves as ‘first gen immigrant’ as I stated in my response.
Gosh you’re angry today!
All concerned please note: the case will turn up in a Crown Court in due course, and we should find out more about it then. However, the last time I came across a case of stabbing to death of someone locally was when the culprit turned out to be a local English guy who happened to be a paranoid schizophrenic, who owned his own house. Charged with murder, but ended up being guilty of manslaughter on the grounds of diminished responsibility, and detained indefinitely in Broadmoor.
There was a fair bit of media reaction etc, and an element of “something must be done” – like ideas of closing footpaths etc (where the attack occurred), but all that noticeably happened was that the local council installed loads more cameras to spy on the general public, or at least to improve security.
What we can observe is that whatever the underlying cause of the Southport crime was, it has been hijacked to justify all sorts of other problems.
”What we can observe is that whatever the underlying cause of the Southport crime was, it has been hijacked to justify all sorts of other problems.“
Exactly, well put.
Given the magnitude of this, and there have been no leaks to quell the disturbance, I see two possible explanations. 1) there is an anti-english element to the attack 2) the elites are using it to deliberately sow division. The lack of any kind of leaked information will give us the answer in due course.
There is a great deal to be angry about, particularly those who try and label British perpetrators as ‘immigrants’; not useful and likely to exacerbate rather unsavoury sentiments.
Whatever caused this murderer to commit his unspeakably barbaric slaughter had nothing to do with his parents country of origin.
Perhaps some British citizens may label themselves as ‘first generation immigrants’. I have never heard that, myself. But this is, in any case, not relevant. As far as the British Crown is concerned, they are British citizens. The vast majority of them are proud to call themselves British citizens and not a few are descended from family members who fought for this country. The British Armed Forces still have many outstanding members whose parents, families, were born overseas.
I don’t very often agree with your perspective but in this case I cannot fault your logic.
Many well known and accepted British people are “first generation immigrants”. For example, immediately after the war there was an influx of Jews formerly from Germany who have settled here and produced children who have become a respected part of the British establishment.
During the 1970s there was an influx of East African Asians, the children of whom have become well known establishment figures, Priti Patel is perhaps the highest profile one.
Are people trying to claim that these are not really British because they are only first generation immigrants?
Probably some people claim they’re not British, the same as some people look at the race or colour of the skin to claim someone is not British. Utterly ridiculous. Those you have stated above are useful contributing members of society, who whilst holding on to their religious beliefs to which I have no problem, usually integrate into our society. No one seeking refuge here from legitimate danger should be turned away if we are their last recourse. Unfortunately there are many who wish to turn this country into a replica of the place they purportedly ‘flee’ from whilst contributing nothing but live of the government’s freely given generosity with our tax money. It is a crime to enter a country illegally, something successive governments choose to overlook. Sure the government has been lax with legal immigration but not to clamp down on illegal immigration is a catastrophic failure.
You, with your unreasonable common sense!
There we go. Thanks state-approved Google search algorithm. Rolls off the tongue. Now define ‘settled’ – you know, just for some robotic fun. Like I’ve said before, I’m either communicating directly with a bot, or with a teenager using AI. Last post – pointless talking to silicon.
Look it up.
Just because some idiot let the rats into the chicken coop, and they start breeding as rats are wont to do, that doesn’t mean that their offspring are chickens. They’re still rats, and they’re still likely to steal the grain and attack your flock.
Have you ever worked with Africans?
Not a Chakrabarti fan, but at least she has got this in the Grauniad: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/aug/07/big-tech-disorder-riots-surveillance-live-facial-recognition
The argument frequently offered by the left concerns the issue of some POC faces and false positives. It seems to me that a more fundamental problem with its blanket usage for the left is that it is incompatible with the wearing of niqabs etc.
Christopher Hitchens vs Keir Starmer already gone.
I can still see it?
Good ! I heard a while back that Khant will soon be PM 😳
Has it gone ! I saw it & my eyes & ears are still bleeding 🤯
https://www.globalresearch.ca/pact-future-planetary-technocracy-global-crises-global-corporatocracy/5864483
“There are barely two months left until the big UN meeting Summit of the Future (September 22-23) where the “Pact for the Future” is to be signed by world leaders (heads of government and state). The pact, which essentially constitutes a blueprint for a global technocracy to manage global risks on behalf of the global corporatocracy, is now being finalised for completion by early August.”
A long and uncomfortable read which outlines where the world is heading. Topics covered include the likelihood of another Scamdemic before Christmas, the theft of the commons, a potential financial crash, World War and the push for One World Government.
With all the above as background it is easy to see why Kneel is acting as he is. As nothing more than a lowly District Manager in the One World Government hierarchy it is essential that he provides at least a run-through of how control can be asserted and maintained. The civil disobedience playing out in our towns and cities is manna from heaven for him and no doubt his agents will be behind much of it. Lockdowns in some form look inevitable. This will be a re-run of Canada, Australia and New Zealand. No wonder he was keen to empty prisons while insisting on two tier policing.
It looks grim.
‘Global research’ is run by a ‘nutty Canadian Professor’.
It is potentially a bit more sinister than that (follow the money).
Research from Stanford University’s Internet Observatory, a program examining abuse in information technologies, found links tying Global Research to Russian military intelligence agency operations. The 2019 study, commissioned by a U.S. Senate intelligence committee, analyzed online content that Facebook attributed to the spy agency commonly known as the GRU.
Some of Globalresearch’s greatest hits:
Footnotes
[1] Globalresearch – RationalWiki
[2] http:// http://www.globalresearch.ca/breaking-us-used-nukes-on-iraq-afghanistan-atomic-bomb-dropped-on-tora-bora-expert/27972
[3] http://www.globalresearch.ca/genocide-denial-in-rwanda-questioning-the-official-view-of-history/5410169
[4] http://www.globalresearch.ca/was-srebrenica-a-hoax-eye-witness-account-of-a-former-united-nations-military-observer-in-bosnia/731
[5] http://www.globalresearch.ca/north-korea-a-land-of-human-achievement-love-and-joy/5344960
[6] http://www.globalresearch.ca/depopulation-vaccine-in-kenya-and-beyond/5413445
[7] http://www.globalresearch.ca/fluoride-killing-us-softly/5360397
[8] http://www.globalresearch.ca/poison-is-treatment-the-campaign-to-fluoridate-america/31568
Oh yes….and ‘chemtrails’ are being used for ‘geoengineering…….
😉
Referencing ‘Global Research’ is just plain dotty, very much like the retired Canadian Academic who runs it..
‘Research from Stanford University’s Internet Observatory, a program examining abuse in information technologies, found links tying Global Research to Russian military intelligence agency operations. The 2019 study, commissioned by a U.S. Senate intelligence committee, analyzed online content that Facebook attributed to the spy agency commonly known as the GRU.
Based on the research, the State Department said Global Research published or reposted articles by at least seven authors using aliases — or “sock puppet personas,” according to the Stanford report — to hide their ties to the GRU. The content remains accessible on the website.’
https://off-guardian.org/2024/08/06/the-peoples-court-of-new-normal-germany-part-two/
C J Hopkins outlining his up coming trial in Germany on charges of thought crime.
“If you’re an American (or a Brit, or Australian, or whatever), and you’re thinking this is just a story about Germany, or the EU … well, I’m sorry, but it isn’t. My case is just one of countless examples of the criminalization of dissent that is happening throughout the West. A lot of Americans don’t realize it, but freedom of speech is protected in the German constitution.”
The “criminalisation of dissent.”
What exactly is Kneel up to? Ah yes, “the “criminalisation of dissent.” The parallels are obvious.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c75nn9dr0rvo
And presumably the CPS have lots of evidence of social media influencers instigating “far right” riots from abroad.
Is that not code for Tommy Robinson? He’s a social media influencer, he’s abroad, he’s an active member of the defunct EDL, and if he says “Don’t riot” it’s a secret signal to riot. That’s worth an international arrest warrant before his holiday finishes and he flies home, in any prosecutor’s book.
I assume sceptics will recognise the irony in my comment – this is how everyone from Starmer to Farage is reacting… but not Elon Musk or Glenn Beck.
Your two downticks may show otherwise
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13714153/Standing-army-6-000-police-officers-ready-deployed-trouble-hotspots-far-right-thugs-warned-face-10-years-jail-riots-ministers-plan-courts-sitting-night-500-extra-prison-pla
Is this “standing army” of police made up of Calais Yatch Club members by any chance?
Where is this “standing army” located given that it must be able to react at a moments notice?
Full on Nazi then.
It’s a good point. It’s either a bluff or something deeply more sinister. I was pondering yesterday about how the Muslim hordes coordinated and amassed so quickly; there’s obviously the fact they gather in quite tightly knit, self-isolated, communities, but then another, all too obvious, thought came to me – mosques. We’ve got a thousand+ buildings which can act as terrorist/radical Islam offices sat in plain sight throughout the UK. An acceptable home for a different culture to plot against the inhabitants of their adopted country/culture. Now you import a few million more Muslims, shoehorn a few agent provocateurs at senior levels within the mosques and… voila! You have an Army. An Army that is so motivated by religious beliefs that they think a murderous death is entry to heaven, and whose radicalisation and organisation makes them twice the size they actually are. Just a thought.
More than a thought ! however if they are being used as a weapon how will they be quelled if they get the upper hand , 🤔
Is TTK / 2TK also advocating a ‘standing army’ to protect our beaches / lands from the usurpers who daily invade our shores? Thought not.
Where are they amassed – easy, in the
barracksnumerous hotels and HMO’s, paid for by the ever-suffering taxpayers.Wasn’t TTK planning on releasing 20,000 inmates from prison soon? That’ll create space – and more beside – for the wrongly labelled terrorists AKA ‘Enough is Enough’ anguished people to be accommodated.
Yes
It’s very possible
“The physics of Net Zero”
This article assumes we are trying to make the UK both Net-Zero and self sufficient but as far as I can see that is not what is happening. We seem intent on making the UK net-zero and totally dependent on Chinese and Asian technology.
With electric cars (EVs) the policy seems destined to destroy the UK and European motor industry and open the door to cheap Chinese EVs only suitable for local utility travel.
With windmills and solar panels, where are they made? and do the people making them having any great aim of going net-zero?
At which point one has to ask if the UK’s Net-Zero policy is not simply a nihilistic, dismal, destructive policy of despair, decline and immiseration? And if the answer to that question is yes, then who is behind this policy? why are they doing it? and why are so few people trying to stop it?
I largely agree with your comment.
The answer to your last para is to be found in the Global Research article which I have posted.
The Chinese have insufficient Oil/Gas, so EVs, powered by coal-fired power stations, is a sensible solution, for them.
But if they could persuade the West to adopt the same technology, even though we have the fuel, it would be a security bonus, for them, of course. And JSO activity would be another.
Not sure about the Chinese EVs but I heard recently of a farmer who phoned John Deere to complain about his new tractor packing up and demand a technician turn out immediately to sort it out… only to discover that his last direct debit had failed, for some reason, so they’d simply turned it off from the factory until he paid up.
Years ago I saw maps showing us as a district of Europe !
We are also dependant on other countries for fertilisers and only 40% sufficient in food.
We soon won’t produce our own cement ,steel or oil.
All the media and politicians and police are “stoking” the riots. Whilst no one is forgetting the lunatic who went on a mass stabbing that culminated in three little girls dying horrifically, the media and politicians and police constantly covering up for wrongdoers, regardless of their religion, race, actual sex, is adding fuel to the flames. By qualifying each time there is a crime that it’s ’mental illness’ ‘the assailant is unknown’ (unless they’re white or English) ‘a woman raped the girl’ or in this case, ‘in response to far right’ it lets the perpetrators off the hook for their crimes and allows retaliation by supporters of the wrongdoing, of which there are many. There are many good and decent people that live in this country who feel they are ignored, derided and scorned, if we’re going to calm everyone honest discussions need to be had, sadly I don’t see that happening in the near future.
On this, it seems to me that established power in this country likes to present itself as moderate and centrist but in reality it has now become the main promoter of extreme ideology, namely radical liberalism.
They now shove extreme LGBT ideology down our throats, mass immigration which brings in people who ironically are the least tolerant of liberalism, extreme climate policies.
There is literally nothing moderate about what the establishment promotes these days. They think that speaking calmly and with a solemn admonishing tone makes them sensible. But their words and policies are very extreme.
The result is what we have now. A few angry people ready to take to the streets and the vast majority sitting quietly at home feeling confused and hectored.
War has been declared on the UK,s indigenous peoples , they want us whimpering in the corner sucking our thumbs !
https://www.militarystrategymagazine.com/article/civil-war-comes-to-the-west/
An excellent and learned article which sets the case that Civil War is now inevitable.
This is a very interesting reference. Thank you.
This seems to make a great deal of sense right now:
‘Over the last thirty years the West has preoccupied itself thanklessly in an expeditionary capacity in the invertebrate civil wars of others—generally counterproductively but sometimes just fruitlessly. During that time, it has developed not just in the military but also in the quasi-NGO sector a certain capacity for thinking about ‘root causes’ of conflict as well some fluency with operations in seriously divided societies that have been deranged by endemic internal war. It is past time to turn the mirror on ourselves.’
The Future of War is Civil War, David Betz
https://www.mdpi.com/2076-0760/12/12/646
Performing my usual daily 20 sec scan of the above headlines shows most (with a couple of honorable exceptions) of our media journos are hopelessly out of their depth in reading the signs of the times, cause and effect.
Out of date, out of touch.
Be very picky choosing your morning media dashboard.
I am in complete agreement.
Has anyone seen any figures for the numbers of “rioters” in each incident?
Usually with public disorders we are regaled by estimates of the numbers, however I don’t recall figures for rioters, except when it comes to total arrests from all separate incidents.
I suspect these are comparatively small occurrences, not on the scale of other recent “non far right” ones, but are being conflated to make a political point and to make them look more menacing than they really are.
In terms of active participants, most reports I have seen involve groups of young men hanging round apparently aimlessly, with one or two activists at the front goading the police rather than encouraging others to make massed advances.
In the case of the attack on the migrant hotel, it seemed that the police were standing against a wall, dressed in full riot gear, watching the break-in rather than attempting to stop it.
In today’s DT, behind a paywall, we have the news, expected ever since 2007, that the Laws of Physics cannot be repealed:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/08/07/power-chiefs-fear-net-zero-blackouts-in-london
I’m relieved, as people in my village thought I was upsetting the status quo, when we had a professor stating the opposite!
“Pubgoer attacked by masked men ‘left with lacerated liver’”
“A man attacked by a masked mob outside a pub in Birmingham has revealed that he has suffered a torn liver and is ‘not interested’ in any apologies.
Sean McDonagh, 51, was punched and kicked in front of The Clumsy Swan pub after hundreds of men – many waving Palestinian flags – had gathered on Monday night to keep the Muslim community safe from a rumoured far-Right rally.
When the anticipated protest in Bordesley Green failed to materialise, a large group – some armed and many with their faces covered – started attacking the pub in nearby Yardley, believing that EDL members were drinking in there.”
NONE OF THE ARMED MUSLIM GANG WERE ARRESTED.
“When the elites loved rioting” – From the London riots to BLM, liberals and leftists have spent far too long celebrating street violence as virtuous, writes Tim Black in Spiked.
Well done to Tim Black for telling the truth.
Almighty God has finally awakened the Righteous Wrath of the British People.
A good news underground cable report: https://eandt.theiet.org/2024/08/05/national-grid-turns-south-londons-ps1bn-electricity-superhighway
“Christopher Hitchens 2009 vs Keir Starmer 2004”
Thanks to Richard Eldred for including this powerful video.
“Armchair thug is first to be convicted for riot Facebook posts”
Leeds working man faces prison term for Facebook posts.
In contrast, here is a photo of the grinning Jordanian let off scot-free after harassing female joggers and assaulting a female police officer:
Jordanian asylum seeker, 27, who assaulted a police officer after drunkenly pestering female joggers is spared community service due to ‘health and safety issues’ | Daily Mail Online