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No Benefit of Social Distancing and Capacity Limits, Study Shows

by Will Jones
28 April 2021 1:41 AM
(200312) -- HAWALLI GOVERNORATE, March 12, 2020 (Xinhua) -- People sit with a certain distance away from each other while waiting to receive medical tests at a makeshift medical test center in Hawalli Governorate, Kuwait, March 12, 2020. TO GO WITH "Feature: Arrivals in Kuwait rush for coronavirus tests as gov't tightens precautions" (Photo by Asad/Xinhua) -  -//CHINENOUVELLE_1.0902/2003121601/Credit:CHINE NOUVELLE/SIPA/2003121602 (Newscom TagID: sfphotosfour530454.jpg) [Photo via Newscom]

(200312) -- HAWALLI GOVERNORATE, March 12, 2020 (Xinhua) -- People sit with a certain distance away from each other while waiting to receive medical tests at a makeshift medical test center in Hawalli Governorate, Kuwait, March 12, 2020. TO GO WITH "Feature: Arrivals in Kuwait rush for coronavirus tests as gov't tightens precautions" (Photo by Asad/Xinhua) - -//CHINENOUVELLE_1.0902/2003121601/Credit:CHINE NOUVELLE/SIPA/2003121602 (Newscom TagID: sfphotosfour530454.jpg) [Photo via Newscom]

A new study published this week adds to the evidence that social distancing rules like the two-metre, one-metre-plus and six-foot rules offer no additional protection against COVID-19.

Professors Martin Bazant and John Bush from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology use mathematical modelling to show that the risk of catching the virus is unaffected by keeping your distance from infected people when in the same room because of the way the virus spreads via aerosols in the air.

Prof Bazant told CNBC that the six-foot rule “really has no physical basis because the air a person is breathing while wearing a mask tends to rise and comes down elsewhere in the room so you’re more exposed to the average background than you are to a person at a distance”.

While distancing offers some protection against larger droplets, it offers none against aerosols, which are a very common mode of transmission.

The peer-reviewed study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA, uses a model to calculate indoor exposure risk based on time spent inside, air filtration and circulation, immunisations, respiratory activity, variants and mask use. Their conclusion is that it’s not social distancing that reduces risk but primarily the amount of time people spend in an enclosed space. The authors advise in the paper:

To minimise risk of infection, one should avoid spending extended periods in highly populated areas. One is safer in rooms with large volume and high ventilation rates. One is at greater risk in rooms where people are exerting themselves in such a way as to increase their respiration rate and pathogen output, for example, by exercising, singing, or shouting. 

Prof Bazant explains in his CNBC interview that this means many venues that have been closed can reopen at full capacity without increasing exposure risk.

What our analysis continues to show is that many spaces that have been shut down in fact don’t need to be. Often times the space is large enough, the ventilation is good enough, the amount of time people spend together is such that those spaces can be safely operated even at full capacity and the scientific support for reduced capacity in those spaces is really not very good. I think if you run the numbers, even right now for many types of spaces you’d find that there is not a need for occupancy restrictions.

The authors suggest that instead of an exposed person being defined as someone who has been within six feet of an infected person for more than 15 minutes (as per the current CDC definition), whole rooms should be considered to be exposed depending on whether or not they exceed their cumulative exposure time (CET) with the infected person.

This does seem to be a more scientifically credible definition of exposure, but it also invites the possibility of yet more public health tyranny. And indeed, the authors propose regular mass testing at a frequency regulated by the CET for the space in question – and they’ve helpfully provided an app to enable us to calculate that. They explain:

For a group sharing an indoor space intermittently, for example, office coworkers or classmates, regular testing should be done with a frequency that ensures that the CET between tests is less than the limit set by the guideline. 

The need for this mass testing arises because they assume in their model that asymptomatic infections are no less infectious than symptomatic infections, so that simply asking people to isolate when ill is not enough to prevent exposure. Yet it is well-established now that asymptomatic infection is considerably less infectious than symptomatic infection and contributes very little to spread.

It’s worth stressing, then, that this is very much a model, not a study of real world transmission data and patterns, so is highly dependent on the assumptions and parameters that go into it. Some of those assumptions are more sound than others.

The assumptions relating to masks, for instance, are highly dubious.

The model tells you that if a restaurant with 50 people in it includes one infected person then people should spend less than 40 minutes there to avoid being infected. But if they are all wearing masks then this would be 28 hours! How does it arrive at that incredible difference?

The authors state that surgical masks filter out 95-99% of aerosol droplets. To back up this claim they refer to two papers. The first says it found the mask filtered out 30-75% of aerosol droplets and concludes: “Although surgical mask media may be adequate to remove bacteria exhaled or expelled by health care workers, they may not be sufficient to remove the submicrometer-size aerosols containing pathogens to which these health care workers are potentially exposed.” The second concludes: “None of these surgical masks exhibited adequate filter performance and facial fit characteristics to be considered respiratory protection devices.” The basis of their 95-99% claim is therefore unclear.

They do not cite the Danmask randomised controlled trial (RCT) into the benefits of wearing surgical masks, which found no significant protection for the wearer from contracting COVID-19.

In defence of the massive protective value their model grants to masks they refer to “the fact that face mask directives have been more effective than either lockdowns or social distancing in controlling the spread of COVID-19”. It’s certainly welcome to have some honesty about the ineffectiveness of lockdowns and social distancing, but the claim about the effectiveness of face masks is very questionable.

They cite two modelling studies in support, both published in June 2020. One, by Zhang and colleagues, purported to show that “the difference with and without mandated face covering represents the determinant in shaping the trends of the pandemic. This protective measure significantly reduces the number of infections.” The other reported “the results of two mathematical models” that showed “that facemask use by the public could make a major contribution to reducing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic”. Yet such studies have clearly been superseded by the events of the autumn (see below) as well as by the Danmask RCT. The decline in infections they attributed to masks, while correctly not attributed to lockdowns and social distancing, should properly have been credited primarily to seasonal factors along with growing population immunity.

From Yinon Weiss
Tags: Face MasksLockdownSocial distancing

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17 Comments
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Splatt
Splatt
4 years ago

Ultimately its a model. Its not real world.
It makes no attempt to measure actual spread of actual virus and actual infection and just relies on many many assumptions.

Just like all the other modelling in this – its almost totally worthless as a result. There’s enough real world data from things such as gyms etc to show some of their conclusions are simply wrong.

13
0
karenovirus
karenovirus
4 years ago

Except that everyone can demonstrate their willingness to comply and put social pressure on others to do likewise.

13
0
Annie
Annie
4 years ago
Reply to  karenovirus

For I, Covid thy god, am a jealous god, and will punish any sign of human decency unto the third and fourth demonstration of them that hate me.

15
0
Hugh
Hugh
4 years ago
Reply to  Annie

(what orders from Mordor? what does the Eye command?)

7
0
Jess
Jess
4 years ago
Reply to  Hugh

The Ineffable One demands that I see how the Get Rid of Muzzles petition’s doing but I can’t find the link right now.

2
0
Jess
Jess
4 years ago
Reply to  Jess

Found it – 47,413 now.
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/581316

3
0
Tillysmum
Tillysmum
4 years ago
Reply to  Jess

I have tried twice to sign this petition without success. Having filled in my details, I am advised that my name will not be added until I click on the link in an email which will be sent to me. The email has never appeared. I notice also that the amount of people signing does not appear to increase. Is this another scam?

0
0
DevonshireDozer
DevonshireDozer
4 years ago
Reply to  Tillysmum

It just worked for me. 48390 shown.

0
0
Dave
Dave
4 years ago
Reply to  Hugh

One does not simply walk out of lockdown…

0
0
PoshPanic
PoshPanic
4 years ago

Pre March 2020, social distancing wasn’t a recognised prevention. The handful of studies to that date had basically concluded that people in direct, prolonged contact with the sick ie carers, were most at risk.

9
0
SweetBabyCheeses
SweetBabyCheeses
4 years ago

If it was that easy then we would’ve already eliminated viruses that spread in this way. Why people waste their time studying common sense I have no idea.

11
0
Julian
Julian
4 years ago

We’ve had a year-long real-world experiment to show us what we knew a year ago, and what was always known before the CCP went mad in Wuhan. No study required.

9
0
RickH
RickH
4 years ago
Reply to  Julian

We don’t know what actually happened in Wuhan – apart from the fact that a lot looks like performance art.

4
-1
Julian
Julian
4 years ago
Reply to  RickH

Yes indeed. It’s what people think happened in Wuhan that matters – and what they think is that there was a harsh lockdown that stopped the virus spreading (the fact that it was supposedly stopped from spreading to the rest of China but not the rest of world seems not to have been noticed).

Why anyone in a “free” country would think that (a) copying China was a good idea and (b) information coming from China could be trusted as a basis of making far-reaching policy decisions is beyond comprehension.

8
0
karenovirus
karenovirus
4 years ago

Todays roundup above includes
“No sign of contagion as 5,000 attend rock concert in Barcelona”

No Social Distancing was required but all fans had to be tested prior to entry (doesn’t say if any ‘infected’ were turned away at that point), wear a mask and enhanced ventilation was used.
Only 6 people subsequently tested positive (does not say how long after the concert).

The picture of several hundred fans looks rather odd. They do not appear to be seated but are all a small distance apart with none of the coupling up or groupings of friends that one might expect.

I do hope they enjoyed the event but it doesn’t look like a barrel of laughs to me.

7
0
RickH
RickH
4 years ago

Frankly – I don’t give a toss. It’s all irrelevant. KISS!

… and the simple fact is that we’ve never farted around like this for the multitude of viruses that periodically cause an uptick in mortality. Basically – the process of emphasizing that the symptomatic should stay away from others – personal responsibility – does the trick without involving practitioners of pseudo-science seeking significance.

9
-1
Jane G
Jane G
4 years ago

Loved this!

0
0

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