One of the most surprising things to emerge from the pandemic, at least from a lockdown sceptic’s point of view, is how overwhelmingly the British public has backed the lockdowns. For example, a YouGov poll taken in March of 2020 found that 93% of people supported the first lockdown. Another poll taken in January of 2021 found that 85% of people supported the third lockdown.
While some lockdown sceptics claim these polls can’t be trusted, I suspect they’re not too far off the mark. And even if they do overstate support for lockdowns (due to unrepresentative samples or social desirability bias) the true number is unlikely to be more than 10 or 20 percentage points lower.
The high level of public support for lockdowns may explain why they’ve lasted as long as they have. Politics is notoriously short-sighted, so why would the Conservatives ease up on a policy that’s kept them ahead in the polls for most of the last 14 months?
Aside from the public’s longstanding reverence for the NHS, an obvious reason why support for lockdown is so high is that millions of people have been paid 80% of their wages to stay at home. In the absence of the Government’s unprecedented furlough scheme, many of these people would be out of work, and presumably much less supportive of lockdowns.
However, there might be a more important reason why support for lockdown is so high: the public overestimates the risks of COVID-19, especially the risks to young people. Let’s review the evidence.
In July of 2020, the consultancy Kekst CNC ran a poll asking Britons what percentage of the population has died of COVID-19. The correct answer at the time was around 0.1%. However, the median answer among respondents was 1%, and of those who ventured a guess (rather than saying “don’t know”) one in five said at least 6% of the population had died.
Last year, Gallup ran a poll for Franklin Templeton in which they asked Americans what percentage of people who’ve been infected with COVID-19 need to be hospitalised. Less than 20% of respondents gave the correct answer of “1–5%”. And a staggering 35% said at least half of those infected need to be hospitalised. Interestingly, Democrats were much more likely than Republicans to overestimate the risk of hospitalisation, as this chart reveals:
It should be noted that the poll also revealed some underestimation of risks on the part of Republicans. For example, 41% incorrectly stated that flu causes more deaths than COVID-19. This shows that results can vary depending on exactly which question you ask. (Notice that Republicans did overestimate the risk of hospitalisation; just to a lesser extent than Democrats.)
Likewise, a survey carried out by Ipsos MORI for Kings College London asked Britons what are the chances of needing hospital treatment if you catch coronavirus. The median answer among respondents was 30%, and of those who ventured a guess, one in four said the chances are at least 50%.
In March and April of last year, the economist Arthur Attema and colleagues carried out two surveys of the French population: one two weeks after the first lockdown began, and the other two weeks before it ended. They asked respondents, “Out of 100 people who are infected with the Coronavirus, how many of them die from the disease?”
In both surveys, the average answer was 16 (whereas the correct answer for Western populations is less than 1). The fact that the average in the second survey was no lower than the average in the first indicates that people’s understanding of the risks did not improve over time, despite more evidence accumulating that the IFR is less than 1%.
Members of the public seem to have a particularly skewed perception of the risk COVID-19 poses to younger people. The aforementioned Gallup poll asked Americans what percentage of those who’ve died were aged 24 and under. The correct answer at the time was around 0.1%, yet the average answer among Republicans was 8%, while the average among Democrats was 9%.
Likewise, a poll taken by Ipsos MRBI for The Irish Times asked people what percentage of those who’ve died were under the age of 35. The correct answer was around 1%, yet the average among respondents was 12%.
In November of 2020, Savanta ComRes ran a poll on behalf of The Conservative Woman and asked Britons to guess the average age of people who’ve died after testing positive for COVID-19. The correct answer is around 82. However, the median answer among respondents was 65.
Incidentally, one problem with asking people to estimate very small quantities (like the percentage of people who’ve died from COVID-19) is that humans have a tendency to revise small percentages upwards when they’re not sure. This “uncertainty-based rescaling” probably accounts for some of the overestimation in the surveys mentioned above.
However, taking all the evidence together, people – particularly in Britain – do seem to overestimate the risks of COVID-19. And this may help to explain their high level of support for lockdowns.
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Someone who hasn’t had much education in diplomacy, an observer might say, based on his performance in Washington compared with a couple of other national top dogs recently.
Zelensky one of the chosen people. Corrupt. Stole billions. Murdered 1 million of his young men. Campaigned on peace, waged war.
Played the piano with his penis – about sums him up. Coke snorting midget half wit.
Can’t wear a suit to discuss with Trump a way out of a military fiasco. Illiterate. No class. A low life thug and comedian.
Get rid of him. Have an election. Elect a parliament with some brains. End the war.
At least thanks to Musk and his X, people have started talking about Gonzalo the US citizen who died in a Ukrainian jail, no mention of that in the MSM, he was a nobody to them and shame on Biden for letting that happen to a US citizen.
Yes, but he actually wore a suit and tie to lick the boots of none other than Klaus Schwab at the World Economic Forum, as pointed out on Alex Jones Infowars. That shows where Zelensky’s priorities lie.
As I remember it Zelensky did negotiate a peace deal with Putin just a few months in to the war, but Boris told him not to sign. Since then billions have slushed through Ukraine and he is a lot less interested in negotiating a deal. When a peace deal is finally signed I would not mind betting it looks a lot like the first one, just 3 years and a million lives later.
Please see this 3 minute Ukrainian film about The Real Zelensky – The War Criminal”, posted by commenter Garth on Rhoda Wilson’s website The Expose:
Ukrainian Film On The Real Zelensky – The War Criminal | Armstrong Economics
Yes , actually WTF was Bojoke doing & who sent him ?
That is the most important question. Who sent him?
My guess would be Biden. He has been knee deep in Ukraine corruption since he was VP. Bojo risked ending the gravy train.
Volodymyr Zelensky has said he is ready to seek peace under Donald Trump’s “strong leadership”
He didn’t have much choice. Europe and the UK are no substitute for American support.
I’ll be honest, if you put the “batshit crazy white Liberal woman” aspect to one side, I thought this was a pretty cool transformation. Bonus points for the Sia track;
https://x.com/OliLondonTV/status/1896928735674405176
Quite good that, except Zelensky’s main accessory was omitted – his eternal, bottomless begging bowl. Perhaps the tracking music should have been ‘Gimme! Gimme! Gimme!’.
I agree with you!
That calls for another Steyn quote…
“Which is more relevant to Britain’s and France’s and Germany’s future? The inviolability of Ukraine’s borders? Or the wholesale surrender of their own?
Your own leaders are killing your countries. But you’re worried about the Donbass.”
Couldn’t agree more. Comments like that also from people like Vance a few weeks ago got them crying!
He’s only saying that so he can access more US funds to continue the war.
Russia doesn’t need to negotiate as they will achieve their goals on the battlefield.
Regardless of what Trump says the US would still like to Balkanise Russia and topple Putin.
The US should be careful what they wish for. Putin’s replacement would be far more hard line than the cautious Putin.
However, Russia doesn’t want to lose too many more troops so they may settle for a compromise.
They would like to have a land bridge through Odessa to link up to their enclave in Transnistria.
They would also like to have de facto control over the east of Ukraine up to the Dnieper River after referendums in each Oblast.
I can’t see Zelensky or any replacement agreeing to that.
The Vietnam war took 5 years of negotiations.
I can’t see this one being over quickly.
Glasshalfwitted! Hello. I conclusively showed you are a paid Putin employee. How are things in Moscow? Cold this time of year. Time for a vodka. Another graphic from the Vodzh.
I find the idea that “Putin” would employ people to post on an obscure UK website rather implausible.
I find the idea that “Putin” would not employ people to post on UK websites, obscure or obvious, rather implausible
In a comments section that hardly anyone posts in?
‘….trolls’ interventions were strategic and time-sensitive becoming more active during key election periods. Outside these periods, they targeted far-right media with outlandish conspiracy theories….’
https://theconversation.com/i-investigated-millions-of-tweets-from-the-kremlins-troll-factory-and-discovered-classic-propaganda-techniques-reimagined-for-the-social-media-age-237712
If the DS comments section is infested with Russian spies, they are doing a very subtle job and have us all fooled.
Actually, how do we know you and BillT are not working for the Ukrainian Secret Service, or NATO?
Hear, hear!
Why is it that the trolls are only paid by Russia, or China to spread misinformation to the ‘far right’? Considering how our government set up the ‘nudge unit’ to propagandise us, how can anyone not believe that both sides are awash with propaganda? What is the truth? It’s really it’s hard to know with the bought and paid for media.
Exactly
A truce or ceasefire is not likely to be acceptable to Russia. They want I believe the root causes of the war to be resolved not just a cessation of hostilities.
What goals? The Russian-majority areas are for the most part back in Putin’s hands. This was his major objective. The dismantling of Nazi structures was a rather wooly goal that cannot be measured, as it is based on hearsay anyway. But if Zelenski signs a piece of paper promising in a hand-waving sort of way to be tougher on Nazis, then Putin could claim that as a victory.
The FAFO art of diplomacy.
Zelensky did, and he has.
It is not a climb down. It has conditions in it which Trump cannot meet because it relies on a deal with Putin who has clearly stated he wants a negotiated peace not a truce.
This comment has been deleted
You’re looking in your shaving mirror, presumably.
I can’t imagine any patriotic and sane Ukrainians supporting dicktator Zelensky. He’s a nasty little cockwomble;
”I am a Ukrainian, and I ask, plead, and demand that Zelensky voluntarily resign.
That he does not drag my beloved Ukraine down with him. That he lets us go and leaves.
I ask that he accept Elon Musk’s proposal and go into exile with amnesty.
In six years in power, he has plundered our country for billions of dollars. He has begun raiding other people’s businesses, stealing from road construction, from COVID funds, from weapons. Even from graves—profiting from kickbacks on the construction of a military cemetery.
In six years, he has taken control of all media in the country.
In six years, he has arrested or intimidated all opposition figures.
In Ukraine, we are hostages of a terrorist. Members of parliament are even afraid to announce his impeachment because they would immediately be labeled traitors and arrested. As you can see, only one MP out of 450 dared to do it—Oleksandr Dubinsky, and he has already been in prison for a year, being tortured.
Three years after he refused to stop the war for the sake of holding onto power, the situation on the front has only worsened. We have lost even more cities, even more people, even more infrastructure. But like a true dictator, he assures the people that they must continue and that victory is ahead! Doesn’t this remind you of famous historical examples from the 20th century?”
He has closed the borders for his own citizens and turned the country into a prison.
He has built a wall and barbed wire on the border with the European Union so that people cannot escape!
He captures Ukrainians right on the streets if they do not want to go to the front, throws them into basements, tortures, and kills them.
He stole money from Americans and Europeans.
Unlimited financial aid gave him and his team the opportunity to recklessly manage Ukraine’s budget, disregarding the money of Ukrainian taxpayers. He even created a new ministry with a huge number of officials instead of cutting expenses, as Musk does at DOGE. And this is a country at war, begging for money from everyone, yet not making a single budget cut!
Zelensky’s ministers receive salaries of millions of dollars per year.
During the war, in 2023, Zelensky even allocated $1 million from the budget to produce an entertainment talk show for his godmother, friend, and business partner at his company “Kvartal 95,” Olena Kravets. Does his friend need a million dollars? Let her take it from the Ukrainian budget!
At the same time, he deceived and exploited well-known American celebrities, including Sean Penn and Ben Stiller, making them raise money and donate their own funds to his United24 foundation.
Americans should conduct an audit of this fund!
He wants to continue the war, even though any reasonable person understands that this is suicide.
He openly states that he will not allow Americans and Ukrainians to hold elections in which someone else wins instead of him.
The United States stands for peace, based on freedom of speech, freedom of expression, freedom of religion, and freedom from fear.
Zelensky’s Ukraine is the direct opposite of the principles the United States upholds.
Zelensky’s Ukraine is a world built on fear, the suppression of free speech, the suppression of religion, and the cancellation of elections—the very foundation of the free world.
Zelensky will not leave.
Therefore, the United States must help us and impose personal sanctions not only against Zelensky and his team but also against the propagandists who work for the regime and are currently spreading anti-American propaganda in Ukraine and worldwide, poisoning people’s minds with fake news. This is direct interference by Ukrainian propagandists, paid by Zelensky, who are attacking American democracy.
I am ready to provide a full list of these individuals.”
https://x.com/oleshkomyroslav/status/1896907214813610336
https://x.com/oleshkomyroslav/status/1896474259079254187
The replacements for Z appear to be jostling for position in the election stakes. Arestovic has already thrown his hat in.
The Brits have been hatching a plan since the start of the special military operation. There was the prospect of Ukraine falling very quickly in 2022 and so an assurance was given that if this were to happen then Zelensky et al would be allowed to form a government in exile in London and that this would be lavishly facilitated. Then you’re looking at asymmetrical warfare aka terrorism. I think this is the most likely outcome after the defeat and it is horrible. The Europeans have already signalled that they will not be disciplined by the United States under any circumstances now.
An interesting new aspect pointed out by Roger Stone on Infowars is that Zelensky violated the Logan Act by having unauthorised meetings on foreign policy with Democrats before he ever went to the Oval Office meeting.
There is also talk that the UK 100-year agreement signed with Zelensky gives the UK mineral rights and control over their ports, so it’s all very complicated, and many say that Zelensky cannot be trusted after shifting his position back & forth so many times.
https://imagedelivery.net/aeJ6ID7yrMczwy3WKNnwxg/dfc2ea91-90b0-4ab7-dfec-6538680fbe00/w=800,h=450
Doesn’t the Logan Act only apply to US citizens?
Good point! It means that all the Democrats attending that meeting can be arrested:
“The Logan Act of 1799 is a United States federal law that criminalizes negotiation by unauthorized American citizens with foreign governments having a dispute with the United States. It is a single federal statute making it a crime for a citizen to confer with foreign governments against the interests of the United States. The intent behind the Act is to prevent unauthorized negotiations from undermining the government’s position.”
There was a secret clause in that deal regarding the ports and the extractiom. They are going to go with this to the bitter end unfortunately. Some British siezure of Ukrainain ports isn’t going to happen and nor is any kind of funnelling operation. It is just very sad how the British working class are going to suffer over the next couple of decades because of this doomed nonsense.
Wow, have you seen this article by Rhoda Wilson in The Expose?
Starmer and Zelensky signed a deal for Ukraine’s “critical minerals” days before Trump took office – The Expose
“Ukraine gets no less than £3 billion a year for anything up to 100 years, so what does the UK get out of it?”
Nothing at all, as far as I can make out. It’s just another way of draining the lifeblood out of Britain, and pouring it into the pockets of Zelensky, and his successors for 100 years. And forcing the Armed Forces of the UK to militarily defend the Ukraine against Russia, which is guaranteed to completely exterminate our now decimated Armed Forces.
Luckily, it’s all completely ILLEGAL, because the Law of This Land states clearly that Parliament shall make no laws binding any future Parliament.
Some comments on that article:
— “So is this why Boris Johnston flew to Kiev in April 2022, when Zelensky was about to agree to a peace deal with Putin, to tell Zelensky to keep fighting and the UK would supply them with the resources?” (Moira)
— “Looks a lot like fraud to me, in offering to two different persons on two separate dates the same goods…That is quite illegal in doing business, I wonder how it is perceived when it happens between two governments?” (Richard Gauthier)
Never trust a LARPer in military gear .
Even the coke dwarf has seen the blindingly obvious: he has no cards.
Also the deputy of their parliament (in perm suspension) has called for his impeachment and two other politicians for his arrest… so he needs daddy.