Lateral flow tests (LFTs) are too inaccurate to be used in mass screening in schools and workplaces, a major review led by Jon Deeks, Professor of Biostatistics at the University of Birmingham, has concluded. The Telegraph has the details.
A Cochrane review of 64 studies found that asymptomatic testing only picked up around 50% of cases, and picked up far more false than real positives when infection rates were low in the community.
False results from lateral flow Covid tests may mean workplaces and schools will be needlessly forced to close even though the scheme was set up to keep them open, experts cautioned.
The group concluded that mass testing policies had been implemented “without any supporting real-world evidence”.
Jon Deeks, the review author and a Professor of Biostatistics at the University of Birmingham, said it was “shocking” that the Government had allowed the rollout of such a “large, invasive and expensive” testing programme without the data to back it up.
“One of the issues which should have been picked up is these tests work a lot less well in people who are asymptomatic, and the Government has not been clear about that,” he said.
“It is being used in ways which actually risk people getting false reassurance when they miss cases, and getting false positives, and that has been a big problem in schools. There are instances when whole classes have been sent home – effectively, 100 people put into isolation.”
Prof Deeks added: “So I think there are big problems in the way that we’re using this. And when prevalence drops you get more false positives and fewer true positives, that’s a mathematical certainty, and there is a point where you should stop. We may already be at that point.
“When is it that we are actually going to be doing more harm than good? These testing policies have been implemented without any supporting real-world evidence.”
The review calculates that at current virus prevalence rates of 0.5%, around 72% of positives would be false.
In terms of not missing infections, the review found the tests correctly identified only 58% of those who were infected but had no symptoms, and missed 42%. It did not acknowledge, though, that where these asymptomatic infections are identified by PCR tests (as most of them are), the PCR positives are likely to be false or cold positives themselves.
The review found the tests to be more accurate in people with symptoms, estimating the LFTs would correctly identify around 72% of people with symptoms who had Covid, and miss 28%.
The researchers suggested the tests would be better used for symptomatic people, and that any positives should also be re-tested with a PCR test to reduce the chance of false positives (though they didn’t note that PCR tests are more sensitive than LFTs so are more not less likely to pick up cold positives).
Dr Susan Hopkins, PHE’s COVID-19 Strategic Response Director, defended the testing programme, essentially saying every little helps:
Rapid tests are effective at detecting Covid in people that are highly infectious, both with and without symptoms. Every day, rapid testing is helping us find cases of COVID-19 that we wouldn’t otherwise know about, breaking chains of transmission and potentially saving lives.
Mass screening of asymptomatic people to try to pick up invisible, isolated infections is an exercise fraught with pitfalls, as experts have been warning for months and Professor Deeks’ review now confirms. The Government needs to heed the lessons of this review and abandon its costly and invasive effort to make reopening society dependent on constant testing for a disease almost no one has. Ministers need to plot a much clearer and swifter path back to normal – a normal which doesn’t involve testing week in, week out for a disease for which you have no symptoms.
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Apologies are only worth anything if they are sincere – either in recognising that the other person had a point or was right OR at least that while you still disagree with them, your initial conduct was less than decent. The howling pack that contributed to the most evil/stupid peacetime episode in all of human history (taking into account the global scale) are going to have to do a lot to convince me that they mean any “apology”.
This, precisely this.
I can think of 3 doctors (at least) who should be investigated for medical misinformation, if not outright disinformation.
They could, if we are charitable (but why should we be) have believed what they were saying back then was true (misinformation), and the charge of disinformation would be very difficult to prove – unless you are MSM, which means you’re not required to prove anything!
And those despicable “factcheckers” should be arrested for disinformation, or misinformation at least!
I don’t like the idea of all this witch hunting through mis-, dis- and malinformation, but their side started this, so it should be used equally against them!
The scary bit is one side needs proof, and the other doesn’t, because it’s got political backing. No real doctor believes politics over scientific proof… they should ALWAYS remain able to question everything
What is so important about these sinister preparations that they must be given the status of pharmacology infallible? The courage of these non compliant doctors is something for which to be truly thankful. They shouldn’t need courage to question scientific matters but the fact that they do speaks for itself.
Dr Trish Greenhalgh convinced herself that wearing a mask 24hrs a day was the only sensible course of action. She probably still has them on today.
The FACT, that the virus is many times smaller than the holes in the mask passed her by….! Also, every single genuine study conducted on mask wearing, (e.g. Spanish 6 yr olds masks, Spanish 5 yr olds no masks) showed zero difference in outcomes. Surprise!
She should be so ashamed of her lack of judgement that she resigns from the medical profession with immediate effect. I won’t hold my breath.
Dr David Cartland has also been hounded by the Covidists.
Shame on the BMC.
Many of these people are utterly appalling, in my view they should be heavily sanctioned and if necessary struck off by the GMC because they have acted in a spiteful manner without thinking that they could be on the wrong side of history.
There are plenty more who should be in the sights of the professional bodies, assuming that those bodies are neutral.
Come on man do you really think these people are capable of contrition and circumspection and humility? They are total scuzzballs. The one saving grace of that period was that it gave us time to identify the nature of the enemy.
Excellent news.
That said, shouldn’t the vast majority of doctors and the NHS – be reported to the GMC for peddling and even worse continuing to peddle misinformation/lies about the safety and efficacy of the mmRNA drugs/vaccines necessary to defeat the ever so new and novel Sars Cov2 disease?
Why did they not do any research of their own instead of blindly relying on guidance and propaganda – often from the MSM?
Informed consent. Lol.
First,do no harm. Lol.
Bar a small and honourable few, most just sang from the same rotten hymn sheet.
‘He who pays the piper, sets the tune’… they all knew who their paymaster was
They were told to by the GMC! You will get nothing there. Government stooges.
I think nuclear weapons are misunderstood as they are generally perceived to the biggest of all weapons and possession of even one of them means that you are untouchable. Yes all true but the real purpose of these weapons was to blast a hole through dimensions and they succeeded and the good and the bad came through. For example the entities that appeared at the Trinity crash site were very tearful and upset. But nasty forces popped through too. If you imagine you were given a job to govern these forces then you will understand the direction of post-war geopolitics. It is never talked about but a lot of the caution on the part of Russia and China is the concern that the Yanks might have access to spiritual realm technology.
Everything the Good Law Project touches seems to fail. Well done, Jolyon. Keep up the “good” work. (irony, in case you wondered).
The fox will forever come back to bite the kimono-clad one.
It’s also fascinating to note how the Good Law Project is anything but what its name implies.
It’s not just doctors who told the truth about the vaccines that deserve an apology. Doctors who ignored protocols based on “the science” and treated patients with hydroxychloroquine or ivermectin also deserve an apology for being ridiculed/smeared.
Drs Aseem Malhotra, Mike Yeadon and Carl Heneghan I salute you for your honesty and bravery. You each have my undying thanks as an unjabbed 76yr old.
There were many “heroes ” in those dark days. For those of us who shared the scepticism they were reassuring voices. Not all were medics but all shared an enquiring mind. All should be celebrated. I didn’t realise Aseem had lost his job what a waste.
I doubt,other than GB News this covid legacy will reach publicity
Or will it go like the thalidomide saga? Everyone knows, but it is considered ancient history? Just move on?
I wonder…. In the case of Covid vaccines we are talking about billions of people vaccinated. A whole new ballpark.
I should imagine the GMC are thoroughly ashamed of their conduct throughout the whole sorry saga and would rather forget the whole thing happened i.e. sweep it under the carpet.
Shame on them.
I fully agree!
It is about time there is a proper study on all morbidities and mortalities from 2021 onwards comparing vaccinated to non-vaccinated people. And if the overall numbers in this study are high enough, we should be able to show exactly what is happening.
Clare Craig has filed a lawsuit to get them to release the data so it can be looked at.
Dr. Malhotra is a heroic individual. He stood up to Big Pharma and our own medical authorities at huge personal cost. He did that for us. So pleased that he was selected by the Trump administration to contribute his exceptional knowledge. He also helped produce a film, “First, do no Pharm”, exposing the collaboration between Big Pharma and health authorities, to help sell medical interventions.
Can anyone explain why the medical profession threw the precautionary principle out of the window when they supported the use of poorly tested, experimental gene therapies (wrongly re-labelled as vaccines) for an illness with an infection rate that was no worse than seasonal flu? Have doctors and professors collectively forgotten the life long, catastrophic harms caused by thalidomide? Did they forget the first principle of their profession – ‘first do no harm’?
To me, it’s quite clear that 21st century medicine is not fit for purpose. The whole profession is captured by a dogmatic scientific theology and by a corrupted system of corporate sponsorship. Nor are the regulatory institutions sufficiently independent or unbiased enough to regulate professional misconduct. The end result is a failed NHS and a population whose health outcomes are worsening year by year.