Mass testing in schools as children returned this week is resulting in hundreds of positives – but viral prevalence is now so low that the large majority of them are wrong and result in children and their contacts isolating needlessly. Sarah Knapton in the Telegraph explains.
Biostaticians are concerned that infections in the community are now so low, that false positives and negatives are vastly outnumbering true cases, leading to real cases being missed and families needlessly being asked to isolate.
Pupils are currently being tested twice a week for coronavirus using lateral flow devices, but real-world data has shown they miss positive cases around 50% of the time.
Similarly, although they pick up 99.9% of negative cases, meaning fewer than 0.1% will be false positives, the prevalence rate is now low enough that false positives will be making a significant contribution to the overall figure.
Previously, positive tests were confirmed using a more accurate polymerase chain reaction (PCR) lab test, but this week the Government admitted it had quietly scrapped the process at the end of January.
It means that thousands of pupils and their families are having to isolate needlessly, and missing more school after months away from classrooms.
The latest figures from NHS Test and Trace in secondary schools found 328 positives out of 663,332 tests between February 25th and March 5th. That’s 1 in 2,000 pupils, which is far lower than the 1 in 270 that the latest ONS survey suggests is the current community prevalence. Some are concerned this means large numbers of cases are being missed, though the PCR-based ONS survey picks up many of the non-infectious cold positives which the less sensitive lateral flow tests (LFTs) do not. There is no reason to regard missing cold positives as a problem, particularly given the personal and economic cost of isolating positive cases.
In primary schools, 613 positives were found from 721,546 tests, or about 85 in 100,000. This gives an overall school prevalence rate of about 0.067%.
At this rate (if it were the true prevalence), out of a million tests 670 should come back as true positives. However, with a 0.1% false positive rate (a conservative estimate for LFTs, which were found in a report to have a 0.32% false positive rate) there would also be 1,000 false positives. That means 1,000 out of 1,670 positives, or around 60%, would be false. Of course, the 670 positives per million from the last couple of weeks of testing include the false positives, so the actual proportion of false positives will be higher.
Professor Jon Deeks, a biostatistician from the University of Birmingham, told the Telegraph:
We would expect far more false positives than true positives amongst those testing positives in schools. There are many uncertainties but given the DHSC data it seems likely that over 70% of positive test results are false positives, potentially many more. Addition of a confirmatory PCR would add little cost and would most likely reduce false positives to 1 in 1,000,000. The refusal to confirm lateral flow results with PCR is at best perplexing, will make testing less attractive, and create harm by wrongly isolating individuals, families and other close contacts.
Confirmatory PCR testing for LFT positives is unlikely to help, however, in terms of weeding out cold positives, as the PCR tests are much more sensitive than the LFTs (picking up many more cold positives) and so are unlikely to give a negative where an LFT has come out as a cold positive.
There is also the question of how many of the tests have been incorrectly carried out, perhaps on purpose, if self-administered, to avoid having to isolate?
Mass testing in schools was always a bad idea – cruel, intrusive, pointless. The high proportion of false positives, with their needless and disruptive requirement to self-isolate, only underlines that fact.
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What’s much more shocking is that 80% of people support some kind of left wing party, including a whopping 44% for Loony Labour, and that 19% are deluded conservatives who think the Tories are worth voting for.
This is, of course, a country perfectly at ease with lockdowns, 32% of whose voters voted for Corbyn in 2019, a bigger proportion than voted for Major in 1997.
42% of voters voted for the quite dreadful Blair’s Britain that surrounds us.
We can confidently expect the sale of ‘footer bags’, black football shorts, to increase dramatically after the election so all one can reasonably do at this stage is advise the welkin to purchase shares in sportswear companies……
Indeed
The football shorts remark went over my head I am afraid, and I don’t know what “welkin” means
‘(P.G. Wodehouse’s) Spode, who is clearly based on Oswald Mosley, is the leader of a militaristic fascist group called the Blackshorts (shorts because all the shirt colours had already been taken)’
I have not got round to Wodehouse. Too many things to read, too little time left.
Which assholes downvoted that perfectly sensible comment?
But transmissionofflame I still hold the DS world record for 100% downvotes with no upvotes so you have not taken my title.
There are at least seven DS readers who think Wodehouse is a must-read? I’m currently reading “The Idiot” – let’s see if that meets with the approval of the literary critics among us
Shockingly, I nearly upvoted you. That would never do would it.
I’m currently going for a new DS world record here:
My Comment on Watch the Game-Changing New Film That Explodes Climate Change and Net Zero Lies
Down-vote for me now please and help me achieve a new 100% DS world record of down-votes.
Down-vote for me.
Yes. Do it. Do it now.
I don’t downvote, sorry. It has always seemed silly to me.
In this case it is in a good cause.
Just one little down-vote here just for little old me: My Comment on Watch the Game-Changing New Film That Explodes Climate Change and Net Zero Lies
Welkin: firmament: in biblical cosmology, the dome created by God separating the earthly realm from the heavens
So a probably not strictly accurate way of saying ‘everyone’ without actually saying everyone.
My apologies.
No apology required – I’ve learnt something!
Perhaps that is because I hear that 70% of people still get their news from the BBC. It is very difficult for people busy with work and family life to have time to investigate every issue. They probably think Investigative Journalists are doing that for them when they switch on their 6 O’clock News. But if 70% get their news from a leftist spouting channel (BBC) they assume is impartial with no axe to grind, then is should not come as a surprise that a vast amount of the public get influenced by that.
Possibly, but also people are just weird if you ask me.
Before “covid”, I got all my news from mainstream sources. Have always been fairly cynical, but started to smell a rat with Brexit and Trump 2016, worst fears confirmed by the scamdemic. Mrs ToF still gets her news from mainstream sources but doesn’t believe much of it.
A lot of people just go along with whatever they think most other people are going along with, whatever seems to be the trend, rather than thinking for themselves.
Let us hope that every Conservative Councillor in the land who is privately disgusted with their party can find the decency to say enough is enough, throw in their party membership and serve the rest of their time out as an independent candidate in order to regain some respect from their electorate and distance themselves from this wretched party that is wrecking our nation.
I’m amazed there are any left
We are getting very close to the Tipping Point. It will perhaps need half a dozen defections (which is quite possible) or Farage to make a decisive commitment to the Reform GE campaign to make this certain. Then it’s all over for the Tories – imho. Their betrayal(s), added to their sheer incompetence and wilful ignorance over the past 14 years will seal their demise.
If Reform can pick up the right of centre standard and continue to opposed Net Zero, Immigration and wokery, then I can’t see what the Tories could ever offer to make a return. They were warned enough times, but always thought they knew best. Soon Camoron, Treason, Buffoon and Wishy Washi will be but a distance (unpleasant) memory.
The largest hurdle facing Reform as a credible party is overcoming the First Past the Post Voting System. They are highly likely to get a large number of 2nd places behind Labour and Conservative candidates, but any wins could be difficult.
Under PR, with 20% they’d be getting something like 120 MPs.
The local elections might be interesting, to see how they perform at a more grass roots level.
Yup, I was wondering whether there would be a tipping point. When the bulk of those who’ve voted Conservative in the past conclude that a vote for the Conservatives only helps put Der Stürmer in number 10.
Despite the trashing of just about anything sensible and substituting it with wind farms, solar panels, electric cars and heat pumps etc, one in twelve folk are still daft enough to vote for the green party. Incomprehensible!
Surely the oddest thing, if it’s in any way true, is that Tory MPs & Alison Pearson believe they’d be better off with Penny Morduant. What problem would that solve? Would a single disaffected Tory think “at last! Morduant, a Tory I can vote for!” What with her desire for self ID, transwomen are women line. Bonkers.
Indeed. I would hope that a lot of “disaffected Tories” are covid sceptics and as such would not contemplate voting for any Tory leader or MP who did not speak up the time (that’s more or less all of them) – short of a Bridgen-like repentance.
Clearly Alison Pearson does not appreciate that the Tory Party is rotten to its very and that its electoral oblivion is the only thing that can save conservatism.
Do the latest polls mean last orders at the Carlton ?
trebles all round ?
oh and who will turn off the lights ?
Shocking only to people who live absorbed in a certain media world and who don’t observe too much of the real world around them.
I’m a bit confused. Didn’t Tice say that he was pro jab a few years ago? That said he has changed his tune now. Reform is the only party to commit to an investigation into excess deaths as well, will be a vote winner if the sheep wake up.
It would be good to know Corbyn’s views (I mean Jeremy not his antivaxx brother – good on him) on jabs, he’s certainly said he was dead against any form of compulsory vaccinations ever and especially for care home and NHS staff. Interestingly he’s also refused point blank to reveal whether or not he’s jabbed, – which probably means he isn’t. Maybe another reason why the lovely liberal caring Labour party booted him out. Oh, sorry I forgot. He was kicked out because the powers controlling Labour Friends of Israel MP’s wanted him gone. I mean they do get an awful lot of money from them.
Tipping point?
Tice needs an effective strategy urgently to ensure:
1. Ordinary, non-political people understand that a vote for the Unaparty maintains the globalist status quo (globalism, Carbonocracy, wokism, covidism, open borders, massive state spending, massive taxation).
2. Agreement with other independents there will be only one, clear, unambiguous anti-Unaparty candidate in every constituency.
“The Mail says Sunak is “begging his panicking MPs to ‘stick to the plan’”.
Plan?
Well that’s firkin news to me. Or as a Geordie might say “Haway and shyte.”
Sunak is play-acting. Nobody could be so utterly dim and stupid to believe that destroying the country bit by bit, day by day was going to result in a successful election outcome.
”Rishi Sunak needs to get some balls”. Well said, Adam Brooks. I mean, even some lady balls would be an improvement, to be fair, but we all know that 1) Sushi is a WEF puppet weasel, and 2) Nobody’s going to stop the flaming boats. Not even Reform.
https://twitter.com/DaveAtherton20/status/1770890513979158992
Edit: I dig your Geordie lingo
*Hadaway* ( Not of the ”What is love?” 90s classic either. )
Thanks Mogs and I agree with your comments
And can we see anyone getting sent to Rwanda ever? Well I don’t think so. Agree with Farage here;
”Here @Nigel_Farage
comments on the 500 people who crossed the Channel yesterday, & the stabbing.
“There are some very bad people among them, who will do our country great harm”.
He can’t see even if the Rwanda Bill passes, the law & judiciary will stop all flights.”
https://twitter.com/DaveAtherton20/status/1770738823250514409
Rwanda Bill – the epitome of gaslighting. Actually beyond gaslighting because Fishy knew it was all bollox from the off. A complete con.
Why is it a shock?
The Treacherous Tories have deliberately betrayed the voters who gave them an 80 seat majority. They are reaping exactly what they deserve.
You’ve got to respect the effort Toby puts in to stop the system from being derailed. Toby, bless him, still hasn’t worked out that most people know, with absolute certainty, where those rails lead. He hasn’t worked that out because I know, with absolute certainty, that he thinks the proles are incapable of working it out.
I am afraid that our democracy only worked in the days when we were a monoculture, mono-ethnic country. The future is only disorder and probably violence, eventually. The muzzies will keep pressing their case using threats of violence to scare MPs and the weaker members of our society into helping them implement a sharia state. And, then, hopefully, enough indigenous will show that they will not stand for that. The military and the police-stasi will have to take sides, and our country will be in flames. All thanks to polticians deciding that they can operate parliament as an undemocratic den of thieves and traitors.
Toby Young will carry on muttering that things can be solved by voting, whilst the bullets fly around his head.
Time we all woke up and looked at where this is all going
We are a weak nation and always have been, but once we had the moatd around us which stopped most enemies and we could use force to stop bad people. Now we are regulated and strangled by laws that protect the rights of criminals and invaders over law abiding people. A lot of suffering coming I think.
Off topic I know..but that pic of Sunak….who the freck wears a hoodie with a tie??
A billionaire who’s too stupid to buy an eye-patch.
Who the F. wears a hoody?
The past 14 years have earned the Tories the right to be eradicated.
George Osborne’s austerity with David Cameron started the ball rolling. Traitors sadly to their own country – starting racking up the current eye-watering national debt.
To whom did they sell us out? What did they get from it?
.