Tag: Sweden

Dominic Cummings has written a pro-lockdown Twitter thread, but it isn't very convincing. Here's a point-by-point response.

Boris Johnson's former chief adviser Dominic Cummings has thrown his latest blast at the Government for not being enough like China and locking down faster and harder. But has he got his facts right?

Men in service and elementary occupations were more likely to die of COVID-19 than those in professional and managerial occupations. This may be because lockdown shifted the burden of COVID-19 onto the working class.

Despite a winter Covid surge in the UK and Sweden, and even a spring one in Sweden, both countries now look set for a low mortality 2021. Did the "second wave" just bring deaths forward a few months?

Lockdowns do not explain why Denmark, Norway and Finland have had fewer deaths than Sweden. Border controls were the crucial factor during the first wave. And Sweden had more restrictions than Finland during the second.

Imperial College have repeatedly denied they made failed predictions of Sweden's death toll, claiming it was the work of others that they did not endorse. But new data has come to light showing this is not true.

Sweden's low excess mortality in 2020 undermines the pro-lockdown case. Defenders often counter that Sweden fared badly compared to its neighbours. There are several reasons why this is a bad argument, says Dr Noah Carl.

Sweden's Professor Johan Giesecke was back talking with Freddie Sayers yesterday, one year on. One of the first major figures to oppose lockdowns, he is unbowed: "I think I got most things right, actually."

The argument for lockdowns made a clear prediction concerning what would happen in Sweden. But that prediction was wrong. Up to week 51, the country saw age-adjusted excess mortality of just 1.7%, below the EU average.

Boris said the lockdown has been "overwhelmingly important". But several places have seen numbers decline absent a lockdown, and evidence suggests the infection peak in UK occurred before our three lockdowns were imposed.