We're republishing a letter in the Telegraph pointing out SAGE modellers need to accept some blame for the care home fiasco since they predicted hospitals would be overwhelmed if elderly patients weren't discharged.
A central assumption of SAGE's latest model of doom is that the lockdowns are holding back the flood. When will the evidence from free states like Florida, Texas and South Dakota break through the groupthink?
We've taken a look at the new modelling from Imperial, Warwick and LSHTM that led to headlines earlier this week saying SAGE was no longer predicting an apocalyptic 'third wave'. Unfortunately, it's not all good news.
Imperial College's modelling has been consistently poor at predicting the outcomes of the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet for some reason Neil Ferguson and the ICL team remain respected authorities on epidemic modelling.
New SAGE modelling to be presented to ministers ahead of stage three of reopening on May 17th will show the risk of a 'third wave' of Covid infections in the UK has diminished dramatically and may not happen at all.
Imperial College have repeatedly denied they made failed predictions of Sweden's death toll, claiming it was the work of others that they did not endorse. But new data has come to light showing this is not true.
We're publishing a new essay by Guy de la Bédoyère about the cautiousness that is preventing the Government from being more bold. Guy traces it to the cautiousness of the modelling teams.
Despite having never locked down, South Dakota has not seen a surge in cases. Covid deaths are now down to one a day and South Dakota's unemployment rate is the lowest in all 50 U.S. states.
Imperial advocates that masks, Test & Trace and social distancing remain indefinitely. They mention no end date. They want to make this a new normal that lasts forever. This is typical out-of-touch behaviour from SAGE.
SAGE have released papers today claiming social distancing and masks must remain in place for another year to avoid another wave of deaths this summer at levels seen in January, despite the high vaccine take-up.
