What do you do when people have spotted that infection rates are higher in the vaccinated than the unvaccinated and are spreading this ‘misinformation‘ on the internet?
It appears that you commission the ONS to come up with a model that fixes the problem. Or rather, in this case, three models.
The ONS on Monday published a new ‘technical article‘ based on its Covid Infection Survey that provides “analysis of populations in the U.K. by risk of testing positive for COVID-19”. It covers the two-week period August 29th to September 11th, though regular updates are now promised.
It involves no fewer than three models, briefly summarised as:
Our first model, Model 1 (the core model), predicts the likelihood of an individual testing positive based on general demographic characteristics in order to help identify broad groups where infections are persisting or arising. …
We then built upon Model 1 resulting in Model 2, the screening model. This includes the core demographic characteristics from Model 1 and incorporates other characteristics individually to identify other factors associated with testing positive for COVID-19. …
Finally, Model 3 (the behaviours model) adds behaviour variables to the core demographic characteristics from Model 1 and the screened characteristics that were kept in Model 2.
I’m sure this talk of models built on models is filling you with confidence.
I’m not sure it filled the authors with very much confidence, though, as their main findings are stated without specific figures:
● People who had received one or two doses of a coronavirus vaccine were less likely to test positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) in the fortnight ending September 11th 2021.
● People living in a household of three or more occupants were more likely to test positive for COVID-19 in the fortnight ending September 11th 2021.
● Those in younger age groups were more likely to test positive for COVID-19 in the fortnight ending September 11th 2021.
● People who never wore a face covering in enclosed spaces were more likely to test positive for COVID-19 in the fortnight ending September 11th 2021.
● Those who reported socially distanced contact with 11 or more people aged 18 to 69 years outside their household were more likely to test positive for COVID-19, in the fortnight ending September 11th 2021.
The media made much of the mask finding, with the Mail declaring: “People who don’t wear face masks indoors are up to TWICE as likely to test positive for Covid.”
The New ONS Study Claiming Masks Cut Infection Risk in Half and Vaccines are Better Than Natural Immunity is Riddled With ProblemsRead More