One of the paradoxes of the coronavirus crisis is that the need for public scrutiny of government policy has never been greater, but there’s less tolerance for dissent than usual. That’s particularly true of the work of Professor Neil Ferguson and his team at Imperial College. Anyone questioning Professor Ferguson’s analysis is likely to be met with howls of disdain. Witness the furious reaction provoked by Professor Sunetra Gupta and her team at Oxford when they published a paper suggesting that the Imperial model might have underestimated the percentage of the population that has already been infected. The Financial Times printed a critical letter co-signed by a group of scientists that was reminiscent of left-wing academics denouncing one of their colleagues for dissenting from woke orthodoxy. They used the word “dangerous” in their description of the Oxford research, as if merely challenging Imperial’s model would cost lives, and Professor Ferguson has made the same argument to condemn other critics of his work. “It is ludicrous, frankly, to suggest that the severity of this virus is comparable to seasonal flu – ludicrous and dangerous,” he said.
A more prudent approach would be for the Government not to place too much confidence in any one model, or set of models, but to encourage different teams of experts, working independently, to come up with predictions of their own and challenge their rivals. That’s the tried-and-tested scientific method and it has been bizarre to see respected pundits simultaneously argue that we should be strictly guided by “the science” and that any scientist expressing dissent from the prevailing orthodoxy is behaving “irresponsibly”. That was the same argument used by the Chinese authorities for silencing the doctors who first raised the alarm in Wuhan. They were arrested and forced to confess to “spreading rumours” that “severely disturbed the social order.” Shutting down dissent during an actual war might make sense, but in a war against a virus it is vital that we should stick to the scientific method. As Sir Karl Popper said: “The point is that whenever we propose a solution to a problem, we ought to try as hard as we can to overthrow our solution, rather than defend it.”
We don’t want to repeat the mistakes we made during another viral outbreak, namely the 2001 foot and mouth epidemic. Tony Blair’s government adopted a strategy of pre-emptive culling which led to the death of more than six million cattle, sheep and pigs, with an estimated cost to the UK economy of £9 billion. That strategy was informed by predictive modelling produced by a team at Imperial College led by, among others, Professor Ferguson. Like today, there wasn’t much appetite for questioning his predictions. But we now have good reason to believe his analysis was wrong. Michael Thrusfield, professor of veterinary epidemiology at Edinburgh University, has written two critical reports about the government’s response to that epidemic, concluding that the Imperial College modelling was “severely flawed”.
One person who’s sceptical of Professor Ferguson’s modelling is Anders Tegnell, the epidemiologist who’s been advising the Swedish Government. “It’s not a peer-reviewed paper,” he said, referring to the Imperial College March 16th paper. “It might be right, but it might also be terribly wrong. In Sweden, we are a bit surprised that it’s had such an impact.”
Further Reading
‘“Carnage by Computer”: The Blackboard Economics of the 2001 Foot and Mouth Epidemic’, David Campbell and Robert Lee, republished in Lockdown Sceptics, originally published in 2003
‘Use and abuse of mathematical models: an illustration from the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic in the United Kingdom‘, Michael Thrusfield et al, Edinburgh Research Explorer, 2006
‘Physical interventions to interrupt or reduce the spread of respiratory viruses‘, T Jefferson et al, NCBI, July 2011
‘A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data‘ by John PA Ioannidis, Stat, March 17th 2020
‘Neil Ferguson, the scientist who convinced Boris Johnson of UK coronavirus lockdown, criticised in past for flawed research‘ by Katherine Rushton and Daniel Foggo, The Telegraph, March 28th 2020
‘Complicated Mathematical Models Are Not Substitutes for Common Sense‘ by Philippe Lemoine, National Review, March 30th 2020
‘Dissent over coronavirus research isn’t dangerous – but stifling debate is‘ by Toby Young, The Spectator, April 4th 2020
‘Predictive Mathematical Models of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Underlying Principles and Value of Projections‘, Nicholas P Jewell et al, JAMA Networks, April 16th 2020
‘The Tyranny Of Models‘ by William M Briggs, wmbrigs.com, April 17th 2020
‘After Repeated Failures, It’s Time To Permanently Dump Epidemic Models‘ by Michael Fumento, Issues & Insights, April 18th 2020
‘POLICY IMPLICATIONS OF MODELS OF THE SPREAD OF CORONAVIRUS: PERSPECTIVES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR ECONOMISTS‘, Christopher Avery et al, National Bureau of Economic Research, April 2020
‘How Wrong Were the Models and Why?‘ by Phillip W. Magness, American Institute for Economic Research, April 23rd 2020
‘The Bearer of Good Coronavirus News: an Interview With John Ioannidis‘ by Allysia Finley, Wall St Journal, April 24th 2020
‘Imperial College Model Applied to Sweden Yields Preposterous Results‘ by Philip Magness, American Institute for Economic Research, April 30th 2020
‘The Fatal Hubris of Professor Lockdown‘ by Toby Young, Critic, May 6th 2020
Further Viewing
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GONE IN 60 SECONDS – COVID vaccines DEPLETE oxygen from red blood cells – Dr. Richard Fleming
Medical Bombshell: Pfizer Vax Attacks Human Blood Creating Clots Under Microscope (banned.video)
Under the microscope.
Ah, from Alex Jones, the most trusted source.
Have you ever noticed that you don’t bleed out after cutting your finger? Yeah, it’s called clotting. Shocking, I know.
Fuckwit
Too kind.
If you do “know”, you will be happy to acknowledge that the clotting also happens around the intra cellular site of the induced spike protein – and if your body’s immune response – antibodies – does not deal with the initial reaction to the jab, the spike protein is then produced which inexorably leads to …an inflammatory result; and pathologists have confirmed it is the inflammatory response from the production of the spike protein that causes the damage to cells, leading to illness and death for some people .
From my limited knowledge of physiology, your cut finger is assisted ably by Factor 8 in the blood – what your immune system does to counter the spike protein is a little different, is it not?
You gloss over that the video is produced by Dr Richard Fleming, nothing to do with “Alex Jones” and what he shows under the microscope is supported by histological samples taken from cadavers by Pathologists in the US – ref. Mayo Clinic samples shown by Dr Ryan Cole – and Europe.
You don’t sound as if you’re the sharpest knife in the drawer…
https://www.ijbs.com/v17p0062.pdf
I have been looking for a paper on this, as I remember early on there were reports that Sars-Cov-19 has a direct effect on the ability of haemoglobin to carry oxygen, and the rapid bleaching of the red blood cells under Dr Fleming’s microscope reminded me of this.
So the low oxygen levels are not only because of microclots in the lungs, but the virus has a direct effect on blood chemistry and the haem molecule.
To me it looks as if the haemoglobin in the red blood cells is destroyed, as if it were just deoxygenated the colour would remain but the red would turn blueish, not white as we see here.
That’s all well and good but isn’t the original article discussing the idea that the vaccine is causing low oxygen levels, not the virus?
The jabs and Covid itself often overlap in effects, since the spike protein acts as a pathogen in both cases.
If haem is destroyed that would explain part of the extreme tiredness often felt in Covid then.
Wow… this makes so much sense. More than a couple of friends have commented how they’ve been feeling out of breath but otherwise seem fine.
Let’s not wet ourselves here. I know the Daily Sceptic is simply reporting the ‘figures,’ but be wise not to use this as an argument for anything, because once we grant that the number of ‘cases’ is relevant with regard to restrictions and lockdowns, then if/when ‘cases’ go up again the other side has got you by the short and curlies.
‘Cases’ is not rational measure.
Daily Sceptic always uses the regimes deceptive and misleading terminology as if it were factually true and scientifically accurate. I hope people are sceptical enough to see through this.
The fact that Toby and his monkeys lie the lie “cases” instead of “claimed positive test results from a 45 cycle, non-specific PCR test not suitable for diagnostic purposes” tells you everything you need to know about this site.
it could be worse
Yes, that’s rather the point of controlled opposition.
Don’t be so damned rude.
Polite lies are still lies. If you don’t like to see plain truths, you’ve very welcome to hide under your blankie.
Someone has to counter their arguments – this is an excellent piece as usual by Will.
I’m still trying to figure out how an illness caused by an unknown pathogen is tested positive by equipment (PCR) that was never designed to identify something called covid19. They might as well be making up figures to fit the chosen text book graph curves as and when required.
Yes, you keep on trying, and maybe some day you will figure it out (although I don’t have high hopes in your special case).
Fuckwit
Try getting off the bottom rung of the debate ladder counter the argument not the person.
It was never designed to identify the whole gene sequence of SARS COV2 either, or whether the “molecules” identified were viral or not or inert or active; the process of reversing a strand of RNA to DNA, and then amplified (CT rate) many times over , beyond the limit where the “result”, determined by software and not anything else, is then deemed to be SARS COV2 and supposed to be cultured in a petrie dish to “prove” whatever “it” is is live. Snag is that the standard of biosecurity of the test labs necessary for any meaningful swab assessment result has been found to be grossly wanting in more than one case, and CT rates employed over a certain threshold deem the result unreliable. You can check out this inconvenient fact via many places on the internet, not least of which is the Government’s own web site which explains that any RT-PCR test cannot be taken as positive without further assessment. Very inconveniently I have never seen how many “further assessments” have been carried out to underpin the data for “positive cases” upon which this Government’s whole strategy is based…world class it ain’t
Spot on. Cases = casedemic.
It astounds me that the regime can still witter on about further “waves”. We must have reached herd immunity months and months ago. How can people still accept this rubbish?
Nearly everyone in the UK has coronovirus residue in them.Supposed ‘cases’ do not refer to people who are actually ill oreven infectious. ‘Case numbers’ can be raised or lowered at will simply by altering the cycle threshold or raising/lowering numbers of PCR procedures undertaken. Given all this, the actual R rate is unmeasurable, so can be any figure plucked out of the air.
Yes, I always ask: of the people who test positive, how many go on to have any symptoms whatsoever. One would think that that was something that really should be measured, but if it has, I’ve never seen the figures (so I presume it has not been measured).
And me – been making same point for months now – but then those figures wouldn’t push out a fear based jabbing programme or support the destruction of the economy by lockdowns.
“R” rate? Now that is medieval hocus pocus.
And the number of leaves falling on any given day proves that climate change is happening every single year.
25 minutes long video of a flight just a month ago (Oct 5th 2021) JFK New York to Helsinki, but you can slide through to any interesting bits – to show that face masks are being used at airports and on planes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cOyAdKP6p6U
And Helsinki to Chicago, just one week ago – more face masks:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=txMaib8IEkk
Please! Don’t imitate the Covidiots. A week’s variation in a mythical modelling figure means absolutely nothing.
Not worth reading in summary – full of speculative shit about ‘infections’ etc. Let alone ‘in full’.
It does mean something: Case numbers reliably going down whenever enforced testing of pupils goes away instead of going up as the same pupils now spend more time mixing with the general population than they did before means testing in schools is pure bullshit.
These aren’t “case” numbers. If you have to be told that you’re dying from a lethal disease when you have no symptoms, you aren’t a “case”.
These are case numbers because they’re called cases. This is even technically correct as they are cases of positive test results. That’s just not what the Covidians have made the general population believe which is basically Someone’s going to get very sick and die because of this!
The purpose of my text was to point this out: Somehow, despite cases were said to be surging in schoolchildren before the halfterm break, nothing happened and cases are again falling now. Without any measures introduced and without any ill consequences except the usual noises from the usual suspects.
IMHO, it’s better to point this out than waste time with terminology debates which are guaranteed to bypass a lot of people as they simply don’t use language that precisely, they just repeat the terms they’ve learnt, and make the person engaging in the terminology debate look like a really overzealous stickler who’s a bit strange.
In more general terms: We can’t force them to fight on our chosen battlefield, hence, we’ll have to beat them on their’s.
‘These are case numbers because they’re called cases. This is even technically correct as they are cases of positive test results.’
Which again assumes the positive in ‘positive test results’. It’s one step back. You’re still granting their terminology, which, despite your protestations below, concedes ground that need not be conceded. Once you concede fundamentals concerning language/terminology, you’re on their ground, and they can manipulate you accordingly. Your next paragraph will provide an appropriate example:
‘Somehow, despite cases were said to be surging in schoolchildren before the halfterm break, nothing happened and cases are again falling now.’
What if the other side falls back on testing, and asserts that the number of those being tested has fallen (and let’s say they’re right), and quickly demands that testing be stepped up once again? You know, just like our side has been bemoaning the mass testing of citizens (about which they are not wrong, but as I hope you can see, concedes ground when we should be cutting the other side off at its ankles), which, given the nature of PCR testing, has grossly exaggerated things.
This right here ought to alert you to the very merry-go-around on which you chose to board.
‘…it’s better to point this out than waste time with terminology debates which are guaranteed to bypass a lot of people as they simply don’t use language that precisely, they just repeat the terms they’ve learnt…’
By arguing on the their terms you are bypassing those you’re trying to reach. I understand your heart, but by stepping into their established arena you are by definition bound by their terms, and those you’re trying to reach are, by and large, already sold on these terms, have been indoctrinated to believe the Founders and the Government aporoved Good Citizens, and view you as a heretic.
‘In more general terms: We can’t force them to fight on our chosen battlefield, hence, we’ll have to beat them on their’s.’
This is ironic, my friend, since they’ve clearly been successful in forcing you to fight on their chosen battlefield.
The key, I think, is to approach this somewhat presuppositionally. Get to the root of what the other side is thinking and challenge their foundational assumptions. We’re already up against a severely indoctrinated opposition. Reaching these people is already difficult. The best hope we have is with honest, solid arguments. Those with ears to hear and their mental faculties intact will be more likely to hear a truthful message than a compromised message.
I didn’t rape you. Stop saying that I raped you. It was just monoconsensual sex, and it only happened once. Don’t nitpick over the technicalities, just look at the headline number.
I think pretty much every here knows that they really aren’t case numbers in the traditional understanding of the term but the fact they are going down is good news even if a percentage of the numbers are sketchy.
Banging your head against a brick wall. Please don’t stop, it needs to be done, but they just don’t get it.
Actually it does mean something: the figures always show that the modellers always significantly overestimate future trends.
It means DS is running out of content.
Fuckwit
The problem is mainly a failure to sufficiently re-frame content from unreliable sources that use loose language.
I see “Daily Mail” and approach with caution.
Well considering the recent article about how many people are reading the DS compared to other news stories, I would say they are doing something right. Never before have I read so much news daily.
Although I do think that the team have forgotten the lesson that they published here last year – don’t fight with more facts & figures when the other side is based on emotion and the moral high ground.
These aren’t figures from a model??
I really couldn’t give a shit about how many covid cases there have been. It’s pushing me off that you have to hear about it every day!
Yes the psychological torture continues aided and abetted by the ‘bought and paid for’ MSM.
When did this start happening? Our great leader, Depifffel the Johnson, told us the vaccines don’t stop infection or transmission, was this misinformation? Will the online harms bill arrest him for the psychological distress this has caused me?
Experts said the statistics suggested that the latest wave, triggered when schools went back from summer
Wave of positive test results in healthy pupils who escaped the scamdemic machinery over the summer holidays, that is. Pupils don’t magically catch COVID in schools, they were catching from the peers and others during the holidays but nobody noticed. Also, the infected pupils are now among us, so, cases should certainly not be falling. On its own, COVID always grows exponentially until the health system collapses. After almost two years of that not happening, everybody knows this!
Someone with a working brain at the Mail, somewhere at least?
Whether or not you believe in “cases” or not, is it the metric they use to scare people with predictions of its future value, so when their metric doesn’t play ball with their narrative it is good.
Sorry “vaccine immunity”?! That’s on oxymoron in this case!
I’m amazed the figure is 1 in 50 considering the supposedly small percentage of the adult population who remain unvaccinated, they mustball be getting it every other month.
I hate that 1 in 50 balls. Means 49 out of every 50 don’t have Covid. Last Christmas when they kept on about the 1 in whatever it would make me want to scream at the TV and say if one in every two people had covid it actually means about 35 million people do not have covid.
The number of daily Covid cases continues to fall in England, BECAUSE (not despite) Boris ignoring calls to re-impose Covid restrictions.
Looking at figures from across the world this pattern is now very clear, ignore covid and it will get under control, over-react tyrannically and the disease will always outsmart you.
Yes, whatever the cases/testing hyperbole, quite a lot of people – anecdotally – got it symptomatically in summer (my own NI was updated, I believe), a good time to get it over with.
I also believe my own NI was likewise updated in the summer. Am doing my level best to hold on to my NI for as long as I can.
I’m sure someone else has already posted this, but why over a week since overhauling Maps, is Google still insisting that Wales is in a national lockdown? Here’s a screenshot from just now:
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/google-maps-thinks-wales-is-still-in-lockdown-and-we-all-have-to-stay-at-home/ar-AAQbDBt
Maybe because the restrictions like vaccination passports that still obtain in Wales feel an awful lot like lockdown.
I heard a rent-a-GOBbels yesterday explaining that the decreasing ‘cases’ were a result of people voluntarily following SAGE advice and socially distancing and masking despite government inaction. There are so many unprovable double negatives in that statement that I almost thought ‘Genius’. Not what I found myself saying, I’m pleased to say.
“socially distancing and masking” Just been to an activity in a local secondary school sports hall – busy with parents and kids. This time last year most of the parents were masked up, this year none were. Small glimmer of hope. I think there are a lot of people out there (probably most of them vaxxed) who are ready to forget about covid.
Absolutely brilliant. If this happens again, immediately point out that this means government action wasn’t necessary.
Hmmm. Let me run through yesterday. Packed commuter train into London. All available office desks taken. Central Line to Epping, long wait for a train = rammed tube. Meal in a restaurant. Trip to the football. Commuter train home afterwards packed. Social distancing – zero. Masks. Yep defo on the Central Line not many anywhere else. Yeah clearly everyone following the advice. I am going to make the sunrise tomorrow and then the moon. That’s my gift to humanity. Prove me wrong !
Of all the drugs that should undergo rigorous testing procedures this should be at the top. Whether or not this occurs is left to be seen, but following with what we’ve seen so far I’ll remain skeptical.
To think that British regulators have approved this drug already …
A Possible Side Effect of Merck’s Oral COVID-19 Drug should alarm the Public
A rush for molnupiravir’s approval could lead to disaster.
https://moderndiscontent.substack.com/p/the-possible-side-effect-of-mercks
Yes, here we go again. Have we learnt nothing from the rush to ‘vaccinate’ whilst ignoring the sometimes life-threatening side effects.
I see it as a double pronged attack – if people won’t have jabs and you can’t get them that way, then unjabbed they might get covid and you can treat them with this pill, with what seems to be a big risk that they could develop cancer – and hence get them that way. Won’t contribute to any kind of social ID but would contribute to a depopulation drive if that is what they are after.
Clever no? offer it as a ‘game changer’ to kill of the ‘pandemic’ with one hand [great PR] and still harm unwitting recipients at the same time.
The trend is downwards but this headline is daft. Had they done the comparison yesterday the drop would have been 6%. Had they done it on Monday it would have been an increase of 10%.
Fuckwit
Stop shouting at the mirror
Well in general I think taking part in the fantasy world of the “covid pandemic” by talking about “cases” is a losing game, but you could see it as playing the enemy at their own game – cherry picking stats and distorting the truth.
Beyond that, if the doomsayers were to be believed, “cases” would never have gone down after July 19th – we were heading for certain disaster.
Yes, this article should have taken the opportunity to re-iterate that. Although locally cases have never been so high since I started tracking them a year ago. Nobody is getting ill or dying though. The vaxxers will trumpet this as a clear success but don’t tend to response when you ask “So how come deaths also failed before we had a vaccine before March”? More likely the delta variant was true to form and was more infectious but less deadly plus the highly susceptible already had it combined with natural immunity. But no, the silver bullet was/is the vaccine. Logical thinking is sadly lacking.
I’m more interested in the fact “cases” are rising in countries with vax passes and mask wearing and less testing than the U.K.
Know your rights
https://in-this-together.com/inalienable-rights/
Look at the comments below the article.
In one comment is a link to a site which posts a sort of “covid timeline”. IF [and it is a big if] what is written in that time-line is to be believed, then World Bank Funding was sought for the world wide pandemic and it is guaranteed from 2
April 2020 until March 2025.
So, another 3 years of this to run then.
What’s going on? I think we know!
Hmmm… what could it be?
Although to be fair, that top-left one about treating people in hallways occurs every year. Tried to find (but failed) the graphic with stories from the Guardian showing headlines like “Patients dying in corridors” going back 10 years.
The clearest correlation and most likely causation drawn from these comps is more masks = more cases…
Which is what anyone with an IQ above room temperature derived at through using simple logic in Spring 20 already.
Is the room temperature measured in degrees Fahrenheit or in Continental perversions? Either way, you have made your point.
Anyone see the disgusting misrepresentation on the BBC this evening?
They’re now using the infection estimate as their measure of Covid. Not the falling case numbers. They literally make it up as they go along to stoke up the fear.
I give up with the bbc.
Must say I haven’t watched or listened to the BBC or any other news channel since this whole s**tshow kicked off. They’re all just government propaganda machines &, as you say, make it up as they go along. Just wish the whole of the country would do the same- that would end it all tomorrow.
I have up on the BBC about six months ago. Actively avoid them now.
I very much enjoy their letters about how an inspector is imminently to arrive. Is costing them a lot of postage.
I think I had a “visit” from one of their goons the other day. Naturally, I didn’t answer the door.
The ongoing COVID-19 nonsense here in the United States exists solely and exclusively because our governments have failed to use the correct treatment. They used so-called “vaccines” when Japan has just proven, in less than ONE MONTH, that Ivermectin can wipe out the disease. IVM was awarded the Nobel prize for medicine in 2015. One of the 3 most important drugs in human history: Aspirin, Penicillin, and Ivermectin. Get your Ivermectin today while you still can! https://health.p0l.org
I’d love to know the truth about Ivermectin and other things like Vitamin D and Zinc.
Error
What’s 34,000 as a percentage of seventy (70) million?
0.00049%
But they’re not ”cases”, are they?