Day: 16 April 2020

This is a paper by Mikko Paunio M.D., M.H.S., an adjunct professor in general epidemiology at the University of Helsinki, Department of Public Health. In the course of his career he has worked at the University of Helsinki, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, the European Commission, the World Bank, and the Ministry of Social Affairs and Health. His current position is Medical Counsellor, Ministry of Social Affairs and Health in Finland. You can see a list of his publications here. Update: Mikko Paunio has written an addendum to his paper, referring to a number of surveys that have been published since he wrote it that seem to support his hypothesis that many more people have been exposed to the virus than the WHO originally estimated, that at least 50% of people infected are asymptomatic and that large cities like New York are close to herd immunity.

The Times leads this morning with Chris Whitty's comment at yesterday's Government press conference that the trend in new infections is beginning to "flatten out", with the death toll remaining below 800 for the fourth day in a row. Does this mean that when Dominic Raab announces later today that the the lockdown restrictions will remain in place for at least another three weeks – that's the expectation, anyway – he will encourage some workers to return to work straight away? In Spain, people in manufacturing, construction and some services were allowed to return to work on Tuesday. One reason to be pessimistic about the announcement is that if we are flattening the curve that's not necessarily an argument for easing up on extreme social distancing measures. After all, won't new infections start to climb again as soon as they're relaxed? Professor Neil Ferguson, the Imperial College scientist whose modelling has influenced the Government's decision-making, said on the Today programme this morning that we shouldn't ease back on the lockdown until an extensive programme of testing and contact tracing is in place. He called for the creation of a "command and control centre" to oversee this and other aspects of managing the virus – something like the Department for Existing the European Union. In Professor Ferguson's March 16th paper – the ...