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2021 Less Deadly Than 2015, ONS Data Show

by Will Jones
24 January 2022 5:10 PM

Many lockdown sceptics have recently been sharing statistics from the ONS showing that just 17,371 people died of Covid in England and Wales up to the end of September 2021 where COVID-19 was the only cause of death recorded on the death certificate. This compares to 148,536 official Covid deaths in the same period (also for England and Wales, as are the estimates below) where COVID-19 was mentioned as a cause of death somewhere on the death certificate. Separately, the Government dashboard reported 126,384 deaths recorded as occurring within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the same period, while the ONS reported 117,247 excess deaths.

ONS

A more recent response to a Freedom of Information request in January gives a figure of just 6,183 deaths, again where COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned on the death certificate, this time up to December 31st 2021. The reason for the difference in these two figures is likely to relate to the definition used – the first figure (17,371) came from a dataset on pre-existing conditions that has been published throughout the pandemic (so didn’t actually need an FOI request to provide the data) and the definition is stated in the dataset. The definition and source of the second figure (6,183) is not stated.

Either way, the figures are an order of magnitude lower than official Covid deaths – for example, 17,371 is just 12% of the official ONS tally of Covid deaths of 148,536 – and some sceptics have inferred from this that up to 90% of the official Covid deaths are not really Covid deaths, or at least were likely to have happened around that time anyway, and thus that the pandemic death toll has been hugely overstated.

Now, it’s true that the pandemic death toll has been overstated. For example, in the most recent week, the ONS itself explains that of the official Covid deaths which mention COVID-19 somewhere on the death certificate, 22.8% were recorded as of a different underlying cause. Over the whole pandemic up to December 31st 2021, 141,057 of 156,924 or 90% of Covid deaths were registered with Covid as the underlying cause, leaving 10% as of a different underlying cause. That’s the official estimate of the overstatement, with others putting it higher.

However, to conclude from this that the other 70-80% of Covid deaths – the ones where Covid was recorded as the underlying cause alongside other contributory causes – were not really due to Covid or would have happened anyway is assuming too much. The important question is whether a death would have happened anyway in the absence of the underlying cause. In most cases the answer is no, which is why it’s been recorded as the underlying cause. Yes, a person may have several comorbidities, which are the reason Covid proved deadly for him; without those, he may well have survived Covid. However, crucially, without Covid he may well not have died at that point, as Covid was the underlying cause of his death.

How can we know one way or the other? It’s frequently noted that the most reliable measure of the true impact of the pandemic is excess or above-average mortality, as that is not affected by slippery definitions of Covid deaths. One drawback is it is confounded by ‘lockdown’ deaths, i.e., deaths resulting from interventions and the public response, such as lack of access to healthcare. However, as excess deaths declined at the same time as reported infections in early 2021 despite the drawn-out lockdown (see chart above) it seems safe to conclude that a sizeable majority of excess deaths classified as due to Covid (underlying cause) were indeed caused by Covid and would not have happened at that point in its absence. This means that 117,247 (up to the end of September 2021) seems a reasonable approximation of the number of people who died due to COVID-19 who would have survived for some time otherwise.

This figure need to be put into perspective, as over half a million people die each year in England and Wales, pandemic or no pandemic, and the average age of death with Covid is higher than the average age of death from all causes, meaning most of those who die were coming towards the end of their lives in any case. Indeed, once the ageing of the population has been taken into account, 2020 was only the most deadly year since 2008, while according to new data released by the ONS this month, 2021 was only the most deadly year since 2015 (see chart at top). So it’s hardly worth upending lives, demolishing cherished liberties and causing widespread suffering and loss over – particularly as there’s scant evidence restrictions, which can at best only delay infection, have saved lives.

Tags: Age-adjusted mortalityCovid deathsExcess MortalityONS

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75 Comments
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transmissionofflame
transmissionofflame
1 year ago

“Cancel culture” may seem irrational if you take its purported intentions at face value but it’s obvious that it’s not about what people claim it’s about. It’s just a way to seize and maintain power, status and control, just another excuse for having the power to force other people to live their lives in a certain way.

126
0
ebygum
ebygum
1 year ago

OK..I’m not sure that this is what I’m personally really annoyed about Toby…
While I agree he shouldn’t be targeted for his opinions..it’s the fricken weasel words of apology that he used that is the crux of the matter for me….

Yes we all agree that ‘cancel culture’ is absolutely not all right..but it exists and the fact is it has to be fought…and he didn’t fight did he? …..he caved in, like everyone who cares more about their ‘visibility’ than real principles and honour?

”I have made a huge error in my judgement liking social media posts that are derogatory towards the LGBTQIA+ community and for that, I am deeply sorry and I know I have let everyone down. 
“I am really disappointed in myself and I am sorry for any hurt that I have caused by my uneducated actions.
“I clearly have a lot to learn and it’s a priority for me that I do this.”

Another person who has no real principle….who can’t defend himself, women and children… and definitely not worth defending….so sorry, I couldn’t give a ‘flying… …K’ about the pathetic twat…

220
-3
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
1 year ago
Reply to  ebygum

I see we are on the same page Mrs Gums although I believe your more robust response is decidedly more appropriate.

🍻 Cheers.

94
-1
MikeMayUK
MikeMayUK
1 year ago
Reply to  ebygum

Yes those who bow down before the mob provide little incentive for us to defend them but when you say “sorry, I couldn’t give a ..”

Well

“First they came for the comedians and personalities and we did nothing because we were not comedians or personalities”

We can’t allow ourselves the luxury of not defending these people simply because we disapprove of the way the lobby steamrollers them and the way they then supplicate themselves. If they don’t have the strength to resist, we need to be that strength for them.

27
0
RTSC
RTSC
1 year ago
Reply to  ebygum

I felt some sympathy for him ….. until I read his cowardly statement conforming to the woke bullies.

He badly needs to grow a pair.

41
0
varmint
varmint
1 year ago
Reply to  ebygum

Yep I get that, but sometimes when your livelihood depends on it you decide to capitulate. You and I might not need to because we are private citizens and paying our bills doesn’t depend on capitulating. Maybe the best idea for these people is to shut the F up in the first place if your not prepared to stand by what you say and then you won’t end up being a “pathetic twat” by capitulating.

4
0
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
1 year ago

I see O’Neill is full on with the dialect du jour:

Like crimes

Unpersoning

Thoughtpolicing

Wrongthink

Give it a bloody rest and start using proper English.

Howard Donald also committed the cardinal sin of apologising and at that point my sympathy and moral support evaporates.

144
-3
ebygum
ebygum
1 year ago
Reply to  huxleypiggles

Yep..once, just once..wouldn’t it be nice if we found a person of principle who said..I stand by the truth and my opinions…? That person would be worth defending..

Presumably there aren’t any, which is why we are here…. is Donald a special person? I don’t think so….When we were all faced with the fascist scamdemic…did we all apologise and ask for re-orientation into right-think?

Well he has position and dosh..so he should be better equipped to stand by his principles..as he’s protected by fame and money…so why couldn’t he??

He can bugger off….pathetic worm….

80
-1
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
1 year ago
Reply to  ebygum

“I couldn’t give a ‘flying… …K’ about the pathetic twat…”

There is no improving on this Mrs Gums.

53
-1
transmissionofflame
transmissionofflame
1 year ago
Reply to  ebygum

Jordan Peterson is pretty good at not apologising. Ditto Peter Hitchens, Elon Musk, Laurence Fox, Toby Young. The world needs more disagreeable people.

66
0
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
1 year ago
Reply to  transmissionofflame

“The world needs more disagreeable people.”

Happy to volunteer.

31
0
transmissionofflame
transmissionofflame
1 year ago
Reply to  huxleypiggles

I knew we could rely on you 🙂

You’re not by any chance related to Awkward Git from the Lockdown Sceptics Reddit are you? He has sent more FOI requests that I’ve had hot dinners.

13
0
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
1 year ago
Reply to  transmissionofflame

Thanks tof.

No I am not related to Awkward Git.

2
0
richardw53
richardw53
1 year ago
Reply to  transmissionofflame

J K Rowling, Kathleen Stock

30
0
transmissionofflame
transmissionofflame
1 year ago
Reply to  richardw53

Their names shall appear in the roll of honour

11
0
Matt Dalby
Matt Dalby
1 year ago
Reply to  richardw53

Hopefully they’ll say something in support of Howard.
If you read the interview with Sharron Davies that was in the Telegraph a few days ago where she spoke about how many speaking engagements and hence money she’s lost, and possibly the chance to commentate at next years Olympics, for speaking up against trans women competing in women’s sport it’s sadly obvious why a lot of people have to cave in to save their careers.

30
0
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
1 year ago
Reply to  richardw53

Hear, hear 👂

2
0
David101
David101
1 year ago
Reply to  huxleypiggles

You’re right. Apologizing and backtracking on statement that wasn’t even a statement implies that Howard Donald is literally apologizing for his own thoughts. If he’s doing the time (being cancelled from the performance venue) anyway, he might as well do the “crime” and stand by his opinions – you never know, he might actually gain something of a following for them!

But the Orwellian language O’Neil is using quite neatly brings attention to the fact that incidents such as these within cancel culture do suggest a kind of creeping Orwellian barrier to free speech (and thought).

58
-1
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
1 year ago
Reply to  David101

Thank you.

5
0
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
1 year ago

https://www.globalresearch.ca/covid-mrna-vaccine-and-pregnancy-leading-to-miscarriage-or-stillbirth/5822533

A little dump but disturbing nevertheless.

25
-4
EppingBlogger
EppingBlogger
1 year ago

Expect no help from Parliament. There will have to be extra-Parliamentary methods in due course.

15
0
NeilParkin
NeilParkin
1 year ago

I think that our side needs to behave more like their side. Get criticised, double down.

‘Yes that’s what I said, no I wont retract. You have an opinion, so do I, but I can back mine up with science and common sense. You think a man can menstruate, bring him here and show me. I don’t mean a woman who thinks they are a man, I mean a born with male genitalia, full on XY chromosomes Human male. Bring it on or shut up with your lies…’

Easy when its not you doing it, of course…

66
0
Mogwai
Mogwai
1 year ago

I wonder if Howard the Coward would be happy for his kids to be taught this at school because this is absolutely disgusting and totally inappropriate. The DM sharing teaching materials that kids are getting taught. I am firmly with Ray Freeman ( psychotherapist ) who features in the lengthy article in that this is extremely alarming because it is pure indoctrination and sexualizing kids. It goes way beyond normal sex education this. Have a look, it’s shocking what they’re doing to innocent kids.

”MailOnline has found graphic teaching material — including a sex manual for pre-teens — being taught to children in classes around the UK.
It follows a concerned mother being denied the right to see the content of the lessons being taught to her 15-year-old daughter in her Relationships and Sex Education (RSE) classes, which became compulsory three years ago.
Despite a judge refusing Clare Page the right to see the material, MailOnline can reveal that a wealth of questionable teaching resources are already available online.

MailOnline can reveal that some children are:

  • Taught that from birth until the age of one, babies can ‘experience pleasurable sensations’ by touching their genitals
  • Given ways for 12-year-old girls to orgasm while masturbating, including pinching or stroking the clitoris
  • Given ‘masturbation’ homework from a pre-compulsory RSE resource
  • Told that girls as young as 12 can find sexual pleasure from anal, vaginal and oral sex
  • Taught that it’s normal to want to masturbate during and even before they hit puberty
  • Informed that it’s normal for prepubescent children to be sexually attracted to anyone
  • Told that gender is different from sex but is a much more intrinsic part of who a person is
  • Taught that people can change their sex from being a man to being a woman
  • Also taught that some ‘non-binary’ humans are neither men nor women
  • Taught that men with the male Y chromosome can actually be women.”

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12189041/Twelve-year-olds-taught-anal-sex-school-nine-year-olds-told-masturbate.html

29
0
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
1 year ago
Reply to  Mogwai

This is truly sick, degenerate and depraved.

43
0
Mogwai
Mogwai
1 year ago
Reply to  huxleypiggles

Absolutely. It’s all grooming and it’s aim is to normalize paedophilia. Especially if you look at it in conjunction to this whole Woke cult ( see below ), and I do wonder if the scroteless wonder would ”like” this tweet or even take his own kids along. It does make you wonder now what sort of a person he is and question his scruples, after all.

https://twitter.com/TPointUK/status/1668183981701865472?cxt=HHwWgICxlcafyqYuAAAA

20
0
Mogwai
Mogwai
1 year ago
Reply to  huxleypiggles

Something else that’s sinister about it all that is mentioned in the article is that a parent was denied the right, by the school and even a judge, to see the content of the material the school is teaching her child. So in what realm would a parent not be allowed to know what their own kid is being taught in school?? The schools should be being transparent all throughout a child’s education and a parent should have the basic right to know the stuff being taught in lessons. So the fact this is deliberately being kept on the hush-hush rings massive alarm bells to me. I wonder if the teachers don’t just go all out, in full paedo-groomer mode, and tell the kids to keep it secret from the parents. Huge red flags and safeguarding issues all over the place with this revelation. Parents need to be made aware.

https://twitter.com/TPointUK/status/1662077235405135872?cxt=HHwWgICx2ZCc8ZAuAAAA

33
0
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
1 year ago
Reply to  Mogwai

Mogs, there is so much of this appearing in our media outlets and I am struggling to get my head round it all.

What sort of parents are taking their children to ‘pride’ outings? Why are these overtly sexual parades allowed on our streets?

Who on earth is responsible for the sexualised school curriculums? Why is this not being dealt with in Westminster? National government should be putting a stop to this so why aren’t they?

I know the National governments are only nominal and obviously we are being run by Davos Deviant sideshows but for nobody at National level to stand up and scream “what about the children?” is off the scale evil. The chain of people involved in the deliberate perversion that is being thrust on to children must run in to hundreds if not thousands; have none of them felt revolted by what they are involved in? Are they all going to turn a blind eye?

I’m struggling, really struggling with this.

I don’t know what more to say.

33
0
MikeMayUK
MikeMayUK
1 year ago

“yesteryear’s treatment of dissent as ‘blasphemy” – heresy to be more accurate, for which you could get yourself burned alive.

10
0
Epi
Epi
1 year ago

Golden Rule never ever apologise to these disgusting bullies.

12
0
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
1 year ago
Reply to  Epi

Totally agree.

6
0
varmint
varmint
1 year ago

Saing things that are true is now a crime. But if you said “everyone can have periods” what would that be?—— It would be a lie, and it would be absurd.

5
0
Vhilts
Vhilts
1 year ago

Howard- you Wally. , not for ticking the tw*ts, but apologising! Never, ever apologise for this sort of thing. If you ran over someone’s dog- fair enough, but honestly- don’t give these goons the satisfaction.
You’ve always been my fav, since the start and will remain so.

2
0
ebygum
ebygum
1 year ago
Reply to  Vhilts

Agreed..except for the period when he had ‘dreads’ … bloody awful…LOL!!

1
0

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