Despite the record reported infections in recent days, the latest data from the UKHSA suggests probable Omicron infections in London are already in decline.
The above chart has been created by Professor Anthony Brookes of Leicester University using the total number of probable Omicron infections (S-gene dropout, SGTF) reported each day by the UKHSA, applying a two-day smoothing and then plotting the daily increase as the day’s new reported infections. It gives an estimation of the number of Omicron infections reported for each English region each day. It shows reported Omicron infections in London peaking on December 18th and declining in the five days following it.
It’s worth noting that there was a data anomaly in Thursday’s report in which several thousand reported Omicron infections for London were retrospectively removed, resulting in a negative infection report on that day, which is why the last two days have dropped so low. This should resolve itself over the next few days, but even so there is no sign of continued growth in London.
The U.K. Covid dashboard shows London total reported infections initially peaking by specimen date on December 15th, which fits with a peak of Omicron by report date of December 18th. According to the UKHSA, Omicron infections were 80-90% of the (low-Ct) infections in London at that point.
However, there is then a second peak by specimen date on December 20th – the incomplete data from the last few days does not suggest it will rise much further, though the bumpy course of the outbreak it is hard to predict. With testing up massively in the last few weeks, there is clearly a testing artefact going on here, possibly with people getting tested 10 days before Christmas and then in the immediate run-up to it. The chart below shows PCR test numbers and positivity in London up to December 19th and there is no sign in that of a dip, only a steady rise up to 22.2%. That compares to a winter peak last year of 27.8% on December 31st. While positivity is rising, then, it is not anywhere near as fast or as high as the raw infection data. If the data from the UKHSA Omicron reports is an accurate reflection of what’s happening on the ground we should see the positivity in this chart start to fall shortly.
The following chart shows the national picture for all Pillar 2 tests (not just PCR tests) up to December 23rd. Positivity here has increased modestly to 6.4%, well below last year’s peak of 14% on January 4th (though the introduction of mass LFT testing since then will have changed the parameters somewhat). Deaths continue to decline at present, and are multiple times lower than this time last year, for which increased population immunity can probably take much of the credit (plus possibly milder variants).
Reassuringly, Gauteng province in South Africa – the original Omicron epicentre – continues to show no growth in daily reported infections.
Last year analysis by Imperial College London found that new daily infections in England began to decline from around December 26th. It will be interesting to see if something similar happens this year, perhaps as a post-Christmas herd immunity kicks in following all the mixing in the festive season. Watch this space – and in the meantime, enjoy your Christmas celebrations, and be glad that this year the sceptics won and there was no Christmas lockdown.
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Good to see the site back – I think the comments on Will’s article must have disappeared when the site went down! Thank you so much Will, for your first-class contributions to DS.
Even if the Moronic variant is apparently declining in London, ‘Sir’ Chris Witless will make it appear the exact opposite.
He is severely compromised as is Vallance and now Harries – both from a different standpoint – we have now seen/heard from Powis and Harries flat out lies in the sense that they have attempted to portray the “current” position with data they will have known is out of date. Vallance was holed below the waterline when the Fauci emails revealed his involvement and knowledge of the GoF chimera – how he has the crass gall to appear on TV and pontificate is beyond me.
But Whitty’s appearance in NHS propaganda is – or should be in any other circumstance – disgraceful.His assertions about “..best possible” are demonstrably false given that early treatment regimes in the US and elsewhere are proven to be very effective at keeping infected patients out of hospital and alive ( and for the unreconstructed jab disciples just listen to Dr Peter McCullough and you might learn something). If he has lobbied for a change in direction in favour of early treatment of (serology) confirmed patients to avoid hospitalisation rather than isolation>higher viral load>lower oxygen saturation>ICU – let him advertise that instead. His professional standing is now totally compromised. The absence of ANY (public) recommendation by him or any other public health figure to increase vitamin and mineral supplements to enhance the immune system, especially in the depth of Winter, is equally disgraceful.
But then, their Lords and Masters in the Pharmaceutical Cartel would not like that, would they?
Having looked at a few DGH patient Covid numbers in the week before Christmas I noticed a remarkable effect. The numbers of Covid patients plunged significantly on Thursday . There is always an attempt to get patients home for Christmas but this indicates to me that many of their ” covid patients ” were incidental test findings and they were able to be discharged without much ado .
Great article Today. Dr. Joseph Mercola’s website. Quercetin, zinc Vit C and D as preventives and early tx’s. Please read.