The U.K. Health Security Agency, the successor organisation to Public Health England, is about to publish its first detailed analysis of Omicron which suggests it causes milder disease than the Delta variant. This will be helpful to those of us trying to persuade the Prime Minister not to impose any further restrictions, including half the Cabinet. The Telegraph has more.
The omicron coronavirus variant is causing a milder disease than the delta strain in most Britons, government scientists are expected to say today.
The U.K. Health Security Agency is set to publish real-world data on the severity of the disease, which is expected to say that more people are likely to have a mild illness with less serious symptoms.
The political site Politico reported the findings this morning. It says that while omicron seems milder overall, the UKHSA has found it is not necessarily mild enough to avoid large numbers of hospitalisations. The experts have found evidence that for those who do become severely ill, there is still a high chance of hospitalisation and death.
Given that the transmissibility of omicron is very high, there is the chance that even though it is milder, infections could soar to the point that large numbers end up in hospital .
On Wednesday, the health minister Gillian Keegan said there were 129 people in hospital with omicron and there had been 14 deaths. Asked on Sky News whether a circuit breaker lockdown could happen after Christmas, she said: “We are waiting for data on the severity, we’ll still have to wait to see where we land on that, but we can’t really say, you know.
“What we’ve said is up to Christmas we’re fine looking at the data, looking at the numbers we have at the moment, but, of course, we have to look at where this virus goes, where this variant goes, so we have to look at that data.”
Boris and his health ministers have consistently said they’ll be guided by the evidence about Omicron and won’t make a decision about whether to impose tighter rules after Christmas until they have more data. Well, now they have, and it suggests the SAGE modellers have got their predictions wrong – again. You can follow updates on the Telegraph’s live blog and read the scoop in Politico here.
MailOnline has also written about the forthcoming UKHSA report and points out that official figures yesterday revealed that Covid was mentioned on 764 death certificates registered in England and Wales in the week to December 10th – 4% down from the previous week and the lowest level since October. It also has an interview with a medical professor who says it looks like Omicron daily infections are flatlining.
Professor Paul Hunter, an infectious diseases expert at the University of East Anglia, told MailOnline that Mr. Johnson had made the right decision as he slammed the modelling.
He said: “It’s not all doom and gloom, it does look like Omicron has stopped growing. The numbers over the last few days seem to have plateaued and maybe even be falling.
“It’s a bit too soon to be absolutely sure about that, but if it is the case Boris Johnson will breathe a sigh of relief. We have to be a little bit careful because it’s only a few days.
“And because we’re getting closer to Christmas there is nervousness that people may not come forward for testing because they don’t want to test positive and miss out on meeting relatives.
“Omicron overtook the other variants around December 14 so most of any changes from there on would be down to Omicron. So if it was still doubling every two days that would have shown and we should have been at 200,000 cases yesterday and certainly more than 200,000 cases today.
“But the fact it has been around 91,000 raises the point that it might actually have peaked. But it will probably take until at least Wednesday to get an idea of a day that is not affected by the weekend. But I am more optimistic than I was a few days ago.
There were 1.49million tests conducted today which is down from 1.56 million last Wednesday, but Professor Hunter said the “relatively small drop” in testing would not hide a virus truly doubling every two days.
Latest hospital figures show there were 847 Covid admissions on December 17, up only 7% on the previous week. There were a further 172 Covid deaths today, up 14%.
In epicentre London the wave also appears to be slowing after 20,491 cases were recorded in the last 24 hours, down slightly on yesterday’s tally of 22,750. It also marked the sixth day in a row cases have been above 20,000.
Worth reading in full.
Stop Press: The self-isolation period has been cut from 10 to seven days, yet more evidence that the authorities know Omicron is milder than previous variants. The Telegraph has more.
Stop Press: A new study by the Scotland-wide Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19 suggests people who catch Omicron have a two-thirds lower risk of hospitalisation compared to people who catch Delta. The Telegraph has more.
To join in with the discussion please make a donation to The Daily Sceptic.
Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.
Look him up on Linkedin…
https://www.linkedin.com/in/nigeltopping
“…Building a global community of climate champions to halve emissions by 2030.”
Another grifter overdue an appointment with Nemesis.
More proof that the “climate crisis” is an ideological component of the rising total-control state – a state where the Party’s onerous rules and regulations don’t apply to senior Party officials. I seem to remember reading about a similar system operating in Soviet Russia.
They are totally impervious to accusations of hypocrisy – for them that’s part of the thrill of being in charge.
Yes – which accounts for the astounding fact that these climate liars actually don’t care if we notice their hypocrisy.
They see themselves as the Kommissariat, above and beyond such petty concepts as accountability and any requirement to practice what they preach… On the bright side, this kind of attitude awakens more and more people to the fact that the whole thing is a massive money-transfer scheme.
Nothing is too good for the representatives of the workers, Comrade.
Even if there were a frequent flier tax, who would be paying his taxes? Our children, via government borrowing. After all, the UK government has a vital role to play in mangrove conservation. It’s nice to see the Tories finally waking up on this one but I wouldn’t trust them to do anything different.
…and recommended that everyone in Africa should do the same rather than seek hydrocarbon fueled industrial development. [That bit is not actually true, I hope].
That’s Climate Justice, no doubt.
Blimey, who’s this? Either he’s got a glass eye or he’s part cyborg;
”This is Klaus Schwab’s replacement at the WEF.
Peter Brabeck-Letmathe has been appointed interim chairman at the World Economic Forum, after Klaus Schwab stepped down as chairman and from his position on the board.”
https://x.com/OliLondonTV/status/1914706946814603491
Part???
The final sentence in the original Telegraph report just seems to leave us hanging. ” It is understood that the committee did not pay the cost of his travel.” I sense that the real story would have been to find out who is bankrolling his excursions, and for what purpose. Why didn’t a journalist on a supposedly serious paper like the DT think to ask this?
Situation normal… another grifter on a no-doubt massive salary, creaming it on the back of this bollox.
The argument trotted out in favour of all these conferences is pants, they are not converting anyone, they are preaching to the already converted, and to those making a comfortable living out of it.
I wonder what will happen to these people when the paradgm shift is complete. They will probably try to weasel out of it by saying that never really believed it. Just look at these specimens.
Virtue is more to be feared than vice, because it’s excesses are not subject to the regulation of conscience – Adam Smith.
This guy will be immune to any concept of hypocrisy, due to his uber righteous cause. We mere mortals should be grateful for his heroic efforts.
Many of the folk I know and meet are deeply concerned with the effects of the so called ‘CO2 greenhouse effect’, ‘global warming’ or its more recent title ‘climate change’. I do not share their conviction that climate change, if it is occurring at the rates reported, is as a direct result of man made CO2 emissions.
I remember learning in school history lessons that people used to hold fairs on the frozen river Thames in Tudor times, that the Romans grew grapes in York and even against Hadrian’s Wall between England and the wild tribes of today’s Scotland. Where Britain now stands has been both tropical and under ice sheets. Climate changes I do not deny. A warming climate may produce higher historically recorded levels of CO2 as a result of increased vegetation.
I reckon that a majority of those most deeply concerned with the effect of man-made CO2 climate change are the same people who are generally concerned with the environment, wildlife, pollution, the squandering of natural resources, reduction of habitat and so on. This is my finding when I talk to such folk.
Those who are old enough to have formed opinions on such matters before the ‘man-made greenhouse climate global change warming’ paradigm seriously took-off were previously, in the vast majority, all strongly anti nuclear-power yet are now, in the main, reluctantly accepting or even advocating it.
These CO2 warriors and worriers even support the plethora of ‘Carbon Taxes’ and ‘Carbon Trading’ that have been piggybacked in with the CO2 paradigm, (designed to keep the UN, governments, authorities and corporates on side with a package of benefit for them too).
Accept or not my assertion CO2 warming is a fake, public support for nuclear energy has reached a record high as policy leaders voice the ‘need’ for new nuclear power plants.
Taking the Mick
You’ve got to love that quote from the Conservative Energy spokesman, Andrew Bowie.
“Mr Miliband driven net zero zealotry…Kemi Badenoch and I have been clear that Net Zero by 2050 would involve significant cost to the country and to the consumer and it is simply not sustainable.”
A couple of reminders:
1. Although Labour introduced the Climate Change Act, it was THE CONSERVATIVES who increased the CO2 reduction target from 80% to 100% (net zero).
2. The Conservatives are still committed to net zero. Hence Mr Bowie’s weasel words about it “involving significant cost” and being “unsustainable” without actually promising to scrap it.