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Claims the Indian Variant is “Hyper-Transmissible” are Nonsense – And Here’s the Graph that Proves It

by Will Jones
13 June 2021 1:44 AM

Yesterday I wrote about the latest Public Health England (PHE) report claiming that the Delta (Indian) variant is much more infectious than the Alpha (British) variant. I noted that the main measure of transmissibility – the secondary attack rate (i.e., the proportion of contacts that an infected person infects) – has varied over time.

It occurred to me that it would be useful to plot these attack rate values to show them graphically. So I went through the 15 technical briefings released by PHE so far and extracted the secondary attack data for the three variants (Wuhan, Alpha, Delta) and plotted them in the graph above.

There are a few points worth making from this about the infectiousness of the Covid variants.

First, between 85% and 92% of the contacts of all those infected with any of the COVID-19 variants do not get infected. This is an indication of the high level of immunity (i.e., low level of susceptibility) in the population and the low absolute infectiousness of the virus.

Second, new variants appear to start off with – or quickly acquire – a high attack rate compared to established variants, a rate which then declines. The decline for the Alpha variant occurred prior to any significant vaccine coverage meaning it cannot all be attributed to the vaccines. Conversely, despite the high vaccine coverage in April and May the Delta attack rate spiked. Nonetheless, it has already sharply declined. (The reason for the sudden drop in the Alpha attack rate from 10% to 8% at the end of April is unclear.)

Third, the Alpha variant was once more transmissible than the Delta variant at its recent peak, but is now much less transmissible.

While more data from more variants would help to confirm the patterns here, the data so far suggest that new variants will often be more infectious than established variants to begin with, but this will not last. Further, the degree of infectiousness appears to arise more from factors such as the epidemic phase or the season than inherent properties of the variant, save insofar as the new variant is slightly better at evading our immune defences for a time. And I mean slightly. Only 3% more contacts of those infected with the Delta variant are being infected compared to the Alpha variant, a difference that is dropping week on week.

The upshot is we should stop being frightened by claims that the latest new variant is “50% more infectious”, which are a distraction, and focus on levels of serious disease and how best to cope with them.

Tags: Indian variantPHESecondary attack rateTransmission

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27 Comments
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Monro
Monro
1 year ago

The world record for the most people on one moving motorcycle is 56 and was achieved by the Indian Army Corps of Signals.

20
-1
Dinger64
Dinger64
1 year ago
Reply to  Monro

I thought it was 60, by the London Met police to escape from Palistinian protesters!

25
-1
Matt Dalby
Matt Dalby
1 year ago
Reply to  Monro

That has to win a prize for the most useless fact anyone knows.
Who on earth down ticked that comment, are they saying you’re wrong?

Last edited 1 year ago by Matt Dalby
3
0
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
1 year ago

https://thenewconservative.co.uk/the-new-conservative-party/

Well if Frank Haviland had any say in the matter we might be able to pull this country round.

7
0
10navigator
10navigator
1 year ago
Reply to  huxleypiggles

Great article (‘Chief wet-wipe Sir Mark Rowley’) Very much in the style of Rod Liddle.

8
0
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
1 year ago
Reply to  10navigator

Yes, that certainly brought a smile.

2
-1
RW
RW
1 year ago
Reply to  huxleypiggles

Thanks for the link. Entertaining read.

3
-1
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
1 year ago
Reply to  RW

👍

2
-1
JXB
JXB
1 year ago

“American Bully dogs: some demanding they all be shot and others asking that the owners are not stigmatised.”

Perhaps that should be the other way round… he mused.

14
0
RW
RW
1 year ago

Open display of prejudice against people with ginger hair is actually quite common. That said, I’m much in favour of increasing the number of police officers on a motorbike to at least four, preferably six. That ought to keep them busy with themselves instead of pointlessly messing with other people’s affairs and as they don’t care for most everyday crimes, anyway, this can only be a good thing. The sight would also be much more entertaining than two of them in a car.

18
0
JohnK
JohnK
1 year ago

None, ‘cos we’re not allowed to call them “policemen” any more?! Or am I listening to other sources of information too much? I think the latest linguistic scam is to use terms like “police”, or maybe “policepersons” or whatever!

8
0
Hoppy Uniatz
Hoppy Uniatz
1 year ago

My favourite Parliamentary petition was, and remains, “Reclassify Cheese as a vegetable.”

8
-1

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