Donald Trump is going to win the election, America’s top analyst Nate Silver has said. The Telegraph has more.
Nate Silver, the prominent statistician and writer, has said that his “gut” tells him the Republican candidate will be returned to the White House on November 5th.
“My gut says Donald Trump. And my guess is that it is true for many anxious Democrats,” he wrote in the New York Times.
His prediction comes amid growing fears among Democrats that the race is slipping away from Kamala Harris. One strategist said the party should not be feeling even “slightly optimistic” about the Vice-President’s prospects.
Mr. Silver, 46, has forecast the outcome of most U.S. elections over the past decade and a half and is one of the only polling experts to have predicted Trump’s victory in 2016. …
The polling guru dismissed the notion that “shy” Trump voters, those that don’t vocally support him but do privately, will swing the election for the former Republican President.
Instead he said pollsters were failing to reach Trump voters, therefore underestimating the true scale of his support.
“The likely problem is what pollsters call nonresponse bias. It’s not that Trump voters are lying to pollsters; it’s that in 2016 and 2020, pollsters weren’t reaching enough of them,” he said.
Democrat campaign strategists are now privately admitting that Ms Harris is losing ground to Trump in the polls, particularly in Wisconsin and Michigan, as election day looms.
Worth reading in full.
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I remember seeing this Romanian MEP with a handful of others denouncing the covid lunacy when it was in full swing and drawing hope from their actions.
And then I saw the zero impact it had and my eyes opened even wider to the total farce that is our system, the EU and the joke we call democracy in the west.
It works if rulers act with restraint, but when they don’t and they bulldoze over everything and everyone to impose their own policies you realise our freedom and democracy is in the gift of our rulers.
It’d nice that this MEP denounces what many of us see, but in terms of effect, it could be him, me or Bugs Bumny saying it. It will move the dial exactly zero degrees.
Pessimist!
Realist
I’m still glad he is saying it – someone has to, and he has the guts to do it. I believe it is having an effect because it can’t only be here that Terhes and his group are re tweeted and cited.
Thank God for his like.
Let them. All good people with rational things to say and who have a desire for freedom speak face-to-face anyway. The control freaks are unwittingly forcing the creation of the alternative world they so fear.
Optimist!
Being optimistic is exactly what they don’t want us to be. Love always wins. Value and encourage individual interactions. It’s the only way to beat the Borg.
That’s why they closed the pubs down during the Covid lunacy. They couldn’t possibly have people discussing the lunacy and concluding that it was unjustified and completely moronic.
Yes..it’s truly Orwellian, Well I’m not joining in, neither should you, and if enough of us don’t it won’t work……how are they going to ban, or correct, or stop millions of us?
They can say anything they fricken want..it doesn’t make it true or feasible…just like I’m never having the jag, and I’m never eating ze bugs!!!?
I’m aware that in my lifetime that real fascism and communism has been overturned..and I suspect it’s just the little things..the people who just don’t go along..
the little acts of rebellion…and at least now we also have more ways to communicate than ever before no matter how hard they try to stop it….…some other ‘platform’ will pop-up….
…it really bothers them, they wouldn’t be trying so hard to stop it if it didn’t…
David and Goliath
David won that battle I recall.
Controlling information through intimidation and explicit controls saps government credibility and makes rumors spread more readily, thus creating ever more work for busy censors. Media Control in China, He Qinglian.
He Qinglian’s censorial officedates back to Tang times.
The Chief Censor is responsible for making Chinese media a consistently reliable source of information so, in case of an epidemic or a war, everyone can trust what they’re being told.
Chinese media provided consistently reliable Covid information so everyone followed it and only 80,000 of them died – even though only 7% of them were ever locked down. They also kept the economy turning over nicely during the drama: GDP grew 14% in those three years.
With no trustworthy information sources, we Wessies split up, got lost in thickets of misinformation, and 1.2 million didn’t make it.
Friends fall down laughing when I tell them that the current dynasty has never lied nor failed to keep a promise (though so far none has claimed the prize of $100/occurrence).
Here’s a funny thing: when I tell Chinese friends that I’ve never found the government lying or welching on a promise they look at me oddly.
Eventually they say something like, “But, um, why would the government lie to us? What do they have to gain? What’s the point?”.
It’s a different world. We must destroy it without delay.
“In 2023, Canadians reported an all-time low trust level of 40%.
Additionally, trust in English speaking Canada was much lower (37%) than in French Canada (49%).
Additionally, the report found that attitudes towards publicly-funded outlets like the CBC “are more negative.” ”
True North report
The don’t care about disinformation. They want to stop unapproved information.
You cannot take the Fascist and Communist tendencies out of the EU “Elite.” They know nothing else. It’s what and who they are.
Yes spawned from Nazi Germany
“Cristian Terhes, a Romanian MP and Member of the European Parliament,” At least one member has a modicum of common sense. That’s one more than I thought possible!
Unless people on mass say this. ——“I have an education and I own a dictionary and I will choose my own words and thoughts”, then freedom is gone, if it isn’t already. ———–I want a million people to stand with that placard in their hands outside every government building in Europe. We need to STOP this tyranny now or it is the Fourth Reich.
If there is some infallible person or people making the decisions about what is the ‘truth’, please refer me to them.
I would like to meet them.