The historic score of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in the first round of French legislative elections last Sunday has created great anticipation that Le Pen’s party might finally gain some degree of power after the second round of elections this weekend, with Le Pen’s young protégé, party Chair Jordan Bardella, becoming Prime Minister. As the head of Government, Bardella would then share power with the Head of State, President Emmanuel Macron, in an arrangement that the French call “cohabitation” when the two leaders come from different political parties or tendencies.
But the electoral maths is not in fact so favourable to Le Pen and her party as it might appear at first glance. The below graph shows the results of the first round of voting broken down by the percentage of votes cast for candidates from each of the different electoral alliances or parties.
As can be seen, the National Rally (RN) and its allies came away with the largest haul of votes, winning nearly a third of all the votes cast. The allies consist of a breakaway faction of the mainstream conservative party “The Republicans”. The breakaway faction is led by Eric Ciotti, who remains for the moment the Chair of the “The Republicans” despite efforts of other party leaders to oust him for having rallied to Le Pen’s National Rally.
A “Left-wing” alliance calling itself the “New Popular Front” garnered 28% of the votes, the second-best result. The centrepiece of the New Popular Front is Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise (LFI) – which could be roughly translated as “Rebel France”. The remnants of the French Socialist Party, whose support has been sapped by Macron’s En Marche (“On the Move”) movement, and the Greens are also members of the alliance. But it also includes – despite the separate presence of the “far Left” in the tally – parties which would ordinarily be considered as about as far to the Left as one could get: like the French Communist Party and the Nouveau Parti Anti-Capitaliste or “New Anti-Capitalist Party”.
Mélenchon (seen in the above photo with Emmanuel Macron) finished third in the first round of voting in the 2022 French Presidential election behind Macron and Le Pen. He has been widely accused of coquetting with antisemitism in the aftermath of the October 7th attacks in Israel, in order to attract the votes of Arab immigrants in France’s troubled urban ghettos or “banlieues”. Even thoroughly mainstream French political figures, like former Prime Minister Manuel Valls, share this assessment.
Macron’s Ensemble – “Together” – alliance garnered barely 20% of the votes and the remnants of “The Republicans”, without the Ciotti faction, 10%.
A closer look at the tally makes clear that there is very little reservoir of votes on which National Rally candidates can draw in the second-round run-offs next Sunday. Even if the entirety of the electorate of “The Republicans” should prove less fastidious than the party leadership and be willing to support RN candidates, this would only get the RN to 43%, and smaller “Right” and “far-Right” groupings have hardly any votes to offer.
With 130 candidates from Mélenchon’s “New Popular Front” and 82 from Macron’s “Together” alliance having already withdrawn from so-called “triangular” three-way run-offs in a tacit electoral pact and to avoid splitting the vote, this means that it will be nearly impossible for the National Rally to obtain the 289 seats in the National Assembly which it would need to have an outright majority.
“New Popular Front” candidates who have qualified for second-round run-offs include:
- Philippe Poutou of the New Anti-Capitalist Party, which issued a statement in response to the October 7th attacks expressing its “support for the Palestinians and the means of struggle they have chosen to resist”;
- Raphaël Arnault, a young militant in the often violent, self-styled “antifa” (anti-fascist) movement who, it turns out, is himself, like numerous suspected terrorists, classified as a security threat (“fiché S”) by French security services;
- Mohamed Awad, who is accused of having been an official in a Muslim Brotherhood youth group, the Jeunes musulmans de France (Young Muslims of France); and
- David Guiraud, who describes Israel as a “colonial state undertaking ethnic cleansing” and who has been accused of relativising Hamas’s crimes during a talk he gave in Tunis, in which he said, among other things, “the baby in the oven, that was in fact done, by Israel; the mother whose belly was cut open, that was done, it’s true, by Israel”.
The New Anti-Capitalist Party is under investigation for “apology for terrorism”. Violette Spillebout, an outgoing member of the National Assembly from Macron’s party, has called for a similar investigation to be opened against David Guiraud. Nonetheless, Tarik Mekki, the “Macronist” candidate who was narrowly eliminated in the first round of voting, has thrown his support behind Guiraud.
According to the latest adjusted projections of France’s CNews news channel, Le Pen’s National Rally could obtain 250 to 265 seats in the new National Assembly, Mélenchon’s “New Popular Front” 160 to 175, Macron’s alliance 95 to 105, and the Republicans 30 or so.
The National Rally’s aspirations would thus yet again be defeated by what is called the politics of “the Republican Front” in France – or, in other words, everyone but Le Pen. Even if this “everyone” includes antisemites, Islamists, “antifa” and terror apologists.
Postscript:
Based on new polling data from the OpinionWay market research institute, CNews has further revised its projections, with the seats to be obtained by Le Pen’s National Rally falling and those to be obtained by Macron’s “Together” presidential alliance rising in roughly the same measure. This presumably reflects the fact that, as noted above, far more “New Popular Front” candidates have withdrawn from second round run-offs than “Macronist” candidates and Macronist candidates, as a rule, do better in head-to-head contests with National Rally candidates than “New Popular Front” candidates.
According to the new projections, Le Pen’s National Rally will obtain just 205 to 230 seats, Mélenchon’s “New Popular Front” 150 to 180, Macron’s presidential alliance 125 to 155, and The Republicans 38 to 50. The National Rally will thus be far from having the numbers required to form a Government, and Macron – thanks to the tacit support of Mélenchon and his rag-tag band of radicals of different stripes – will be something of a “comeback kid”.
Robert Kogon is the pen name of a widely-published journalist covering European affairs. Subscribe to his Substack.
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Clearly, the “wrong kind of information”, as far as the US regime is concerned..
Canadian government proposes digital ID tied to vaccine passports
https://reclaimthenet.org/canada-federal-panel-panel-proposes-digital-ids-tied-to-vaccine-passports/
The next big threat to privacy.
By Ken Macon
Stand for freedom with our Yellow Boards
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& Old Wokingham Road
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Telegram http://t.me/astandintheparkbracknell
Surrounded by Evil!
We already know Truss isn’t very bright, but this gives the impression of outright delusion. Does she really still think the Russians are going to be sufficiently bothered by these self-harming sanctions by the US and its satellite states to sacrifice all their efforts so far in the Ukraine and go back to the situation that forced them into resorting to the use of force?
Presumably just another case of believing her own side’s propaganda.
Presumably just another case of believing her own side’s propaganda.
This is why I don’t like banning of alternative viewpoints, if all any politician and also the public hears is its own sides propaganda, then this will lead to catastrophic outcomes as has seen throughout history.
Well in fairness, having access to alternative points of view is of no help if one refuses to consider them for essentially sentimental reasons.
As is happening Russia, you mean.
It has now been see here with exactly the same outrageous censorship leading to the injecting of our children with a Pharma ‘experiment’.
How have we allowed this to happen?
Considering she doesnt even know where the boundaries of the Ukraine and Russia are she wont know anyway who has withdrawn from where to where.
‘If those naughty Ruskies don’t stop fighting I’m going to cut myself again.’
So there! Just you watch me. I mean it.
(FFS).
Hmm, I rather doubt that Truss has any beliefs except in her own importance and career!
You’re probably right. But having ministers with or without beliefs in the moral sense is rather a second order problem next to having so many ministers and media etc elite figures who seemingly either have delusional ideas about basic world reality or are totally and all-encompassingly dishonest.
Both misplaced!
She is a disgrace ro Public Office – incompetent and unfit for the post.
This is the level of sheer delusion or dishonesty of the war promoters on the conservative side (liberal interventionists have their own characteristic kinds of bleatings) – in this case Dan Hannan and our own host Toby Young.
Hannan tweeted the following, today:
Daniel Hannan
@DanielJHannan
In December 1941, 15,000 Jews from Kharkhiv were murdered at Drobytsky Yar by the Nazis. It was minus 15 degrees centigrade, and children were thrown alive into the pits to freeze, so as to save bullets. Now, Russian troops have wrecked the memorial. So much for de-nazification.
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1507820074593304585
Whatever Hannan is, he isn’t stupid. He knows full well that if this memorial was damaged by the Russians (who knows?), it’s just the collateral damage of war. It’s ridiculous to suppose that the Russians would intentionally target this memorial. What possible motivation could they have for doing so?
But that’s clearly the impression Hannan tried to give, and Young retweeted it as though it were something somehow significant, rather than the black propaganda smear it actually is.
These people are so captive to their fantasy Cold War falsehoods about Russia that they think anything that promotes hostility to Russia is justified, no matter how cynically misleading.
Not sure weather it’s hypocracy or selective virtue signalling, but they fail to mention the +300k Polish ethnicly clensed from what is now Western Ukraine by the Ukranian Banderites, before the Geman Nazis even arrived, most of those didn’t even get a memorial, the current administration won’t allow archeology to find the mass graves so they can build one either.
Homework for Toby:
Zmarłych pogrzebać – film dokumentalny o Zbrodni Wołyńskiej (English subtitles)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uVVRccerdW0
Young’s and Hannan’s posturing on this is particularly sick given the forces unleashed by US interference in the Ukraine.
They’ve tried to use nazi/ultranationalist ideology in the Ukraine much as jihadist ideology was used in Afghanistan against the Soviets. If they succeed (which fortunately I think it’s currently looking as though they won’t, but it’s a long way from a sure thing) then we will face the blowback again.
In truth, we’ll no doubt face some blowback from flooding the region with modern weapons and training anyway, even if the Russians succeed in cleansing the Ukraine.
And when I say nazi, I’m quite careful with that much abused term. Not all Ukrainian ultranationalsts even are actual nazis, or “neo-nazis”. But some are, and they have huge influence in that country, as we all seem to be aware apart from Young and most of the rest of the management here.
“”Like actual neo-nazis, not like CBC’s neo-nazis where everybody who doesn’t agree with Justin Trudeau is a neo-nazi”
Ukraine: On patrol with the far-right National Militia – BBC Newsnight
The BBC from 2018. before they switched priority to their current anti-Russian war agenda. These are the “heroes” grimly holding onto the last bits of Mariupol against Russian and DPR forces today (most likely against the wishes of most of the inhabitants, who are essentially hostages to prevent the Russian and DPR forces using heavy firepower). It was these same thugs who were sent in to support the oligarch thugs to reoccupy the city for the Ukrainian regime back in 2014.
Maybe painting “anti-vaxers” and “lockdown protestors” as “far right” was positioning the narrative in anticipation of the new boogiman de jure
The woke globalists have made no attempt to hide their intentions in that regard. The “far right” smear and the linking of it to “security” threats, for anyone even vaguely conservative or traditionalist is far wider than just the campaign to regime change Russia, and linking other dissenters to that already demonised strand was a no brainer for them.
The repeated and absurd use of the term “far right”, with regard to those showing determined opposition to lockdowns and “vaccine” mandates, has been very effective in triggering the reptilian brains of a good many who identify as “leftist” or “progressive”.
Soros prattles on about ‘saving’ democracy by deposing Putin.
The Devil himself quotes “scripture”!
Didn’t we hear that the memorial is actually still standing, that it wasn’t destroyed at all?
Wouldn’t be in the least surprised. but it would only add to the point I was making, of course.
Hannan used to be worth listening to….sadly no longer
.Our whole political, Legal and Media class have sold us out big time!
It created an environment which led to the biggest assault on freedom of speech and democracy I’ve known in my lifetime” – Watch Ex-Sky and ITV News Executive Mark Sharman on GB News on Ofcom’s warning to “not question the official Government line”.
its no good having laws, liberties, freedom of speech and press freedom only in the good times if it does not hold up in times of state overreach, and to make matters worse most of the public seemed fine with the state doing what it wanted for at least just over a year before we had the london protests. Unfortunately now people are going to find out that giving away power to the state only leads to trouble.
Well said.
Especially in the case of an openly criminal state, authoritative elements of which ‘nudged’ and psychologically manipulated its citizens and knowingly advanced destructive, murderous policies.
It has to be said – we are in open war with the Deep State.
Thank you for saying it! ( You will be “ghosted” next time if Dorries gets her way)
Another long interview with Scott Ritter that is packed with anecdotes from his insider experience as a US intelligence operative and UN inspector. Excellent info imo about the real conspiracies that make things happen in the world.
Well worth watching in full, even if one isn’t entirely a Ritter fan.
The battle for Ukraine, with ex-UN weapons inspector Scott Ritter
Raab: Bill of Rights would give free speech a legal trump card
“Mr Raab told the Daily Mail he feared “free speech and democratic debate” were being “whittled away” by “wokery and political correctness”.
He said: “The thrust is going to be making sure that when we balance rights, whether it’s the right to free speech and the right to privacy or other rights, we make sure that the greatest overriding importance and weight is attached to free speech.
“Effectively, free speech will be given what will amount to ‘trump card’ status in a whole range of areas.””
Now this is an area, unlike foreign policy on which he’s a child, basically, on which I would be genuinely interested to hear from Toby Young.
I don’t trust Raab an inch after his shameful involvement in the covid abominations, and when I looked at the indications of how the proposals to “reform” the Human Rights Act were shaping up a few weeks back I did not see any hugely encouraging signs about free speech. So if that has changed I’d hope to hear about it from Young and the FSU, where he has real expertise.
don’t believe the state has any commitment to free speech, as seen with the harms bill which the state would quite like to lock anyone up if someone says they felt “harmed” etc, and is being seen right now as police go round to people’s houses if they say 2 genders etc as well as the level of suppression of doctors over the last two yrs.
I agree, that’s why I’m interested to see if this report is any indication of any change for the better.
Like you, I strongly doubt it.
Once our lovely PM signs our healthcare over to the WHO, then these Bills will be doing the intended job of banning any dissent against the nation turning into the CCP….
Yes, they will ….But, Hey! Everyone! Quick look over there!!…..Ukraine!
I’ve sent info from the World Council for Health on the WHO takeover to Toby, Will et al but I guess that they’re not interested in putting it in the Round-up….
WIll the Bill of Rights “Trump” the Harms Bill? Doubtful, given the government has decided decisions will be subcontracted to big tech and the “Fact Checking” industry.
Johnson has offered a contest prize to Dorry and Raaab for the most Rights Damaging Act !
Raab’s face signals his deep shame for the rold he is playing!
With those words by Liz Truss, the British Foreign Office is in part making its traditional error of assuming that elite foreign johnnies crave acceptance from British poshoes. But not all do.
Perhaps they should watch this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTusD9eO_4k
Or this one:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQUiYm6iK7c
Or this one:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r29k_T_o9To
I’m sure they’ve all heard the story that Nikita Khrushchev said that if he were an Englishman he’d be a Conservative; they might like to consider what Mr “We will bury you” meant by that.
Unlike Britain, Russia didn’t rely on foreign countries’ assistance to put it on the winning side in WW2.
PS Interestingly this group, Otava Yo (Отава Ё) made this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0JQ0xnJyb0A
and also this version of a Makhnovist folk song:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7TxSDRqdC4
(That’s St Petersburg, which is where they are from.)
One of the comments to another version of that Makhnovist “Little Apple” song
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CIa57c0IRQ8
reads
Nestor Makhno statue in Hulyaipole:
I enjoyed opening those links. Thinking “Oh, yes” again and again as the titles appeared. You have fine taste.
Truss is drowning in deep muddy waters – well over her head.
I was idly looking through the Yellow Card reports – which are a triumph of propaganda and misdirection rather than a dispassionate statement of fact.
The conclusions caught my eye. They wanted to indicate that it was still justifiable to have the vaccine, but the wording is curious.
They state that the vaccine is justified by ‘its expected benefits’. Now that is odd. Its ‘expected’ benefit was that it would stop you getting Covid. If it did, that would be a good reason to take the vaccine. But it famously DOESN’T stop you getting the illness, nor does it stop you passing it on.
What the Yellow Card site now says is technically true. The ‘expected’ benefit of the vaccine IS a justification for taking it. They just ignore the fact that the ‘expected’ benefit has been shown not to be true.
So long as they can present all their policies as having ‘expected’ beneficial effects, there is no way to argue against them….
Par the for course, Democracy has “Expected Benefits” too, they don’t mention the bunch of UN treaties they signed up for that bypass all “democracy” to control every aspect of domestic legislation.
How can you argue with serial liars?
What a dreadful piece in the DT about ‘anti-vaxxers’ moving to awake places. Full of ‘conspiracy theorists’, ‘anti-vaxxers’ etc etc, the usual derision poured on people who are unhappy about the way the West is moving (including describing Mike Yeadon as ‘riding a wave of martyrdom’), I had to give up reading it. I’d love to see the comments BTL if they’re allowed but unfortunately can’t see them as it’s behind a paywall.
Don’t worry, you’re not missing anything; the Torygraph is not allowing comments on that article – for the very good reason that they know exactly what they would get, and it wouldn’t support their narrative. They also don’t allow comments on any article with ‘Prince’ Harry in it, but that is probably for legal reasons.
Ah yes, one of the two Royals-formerly-known-as-Prince!
DT = average quality fire-lighting/cat tray material!
It certainly seemed to make anyone wanting to move to a sunny climate where they weren’t being bullied by their own government seem like they were off to drink the Kool aid. I would absolutely love to know what the words in between the carefully cherry picked quotes were. Not sure I want to live in a commune though, however sunny. I guess it depends on how controlling our leaders become.
A gated community in “paradise” sounds like a very pretty gaol cell. It mite sound better than a wet n windy open prison, but I’m not sure it’s the answer. I mite be tempted if I was a lot younger tho.
Indeed. Where is this place?
Northamptonshire?
The DT is now a disgusting rag, taking money from Gates – even the Mail has more objcetive truth.
It created an environment which led to the biggest assault on freedom of speech and democracy I’ve known in my lifetime” – ‘The biggest crime was the Silence’ said Vera Sharav, our own politicians and MSM have all been silenced except for the official narrative.
“But I think you have to look beyond OFCOM and beyond this country, this was a worldwide ‘lockstep’ occurrance, in parallel with the media you had Big Tech, new media who were censoring everything…” CUT
So Ex-Sky & ITV News Executive Mark Sharman thinks it’s controlled globally then…another ‘conspiracy
theorycoincidence’ almost goes mainstreamRussian pranksters release YouTube clip of moment they duped Priti Patel: Home Secretary is filmed in 15-minute call with duo posing as Ukraine’s PM Denys Shmyhal
Funny that this latest in the series of UK regime embarrassments doesn’t seem to have been mentioned in the Round Ups here. Yet more evidence of the moron surplus in our political elite seems relevant to scepticism generally.
“It is the latest attempt by the Kremlin to spread its propaganda through the hoaxers after they called Ben Wallace pretending to be Mr Shmyhal last week.
Security experts slammed YouTube for allowing the duo to post the disinformation on its website for Western audiences.”
Oh, it’s “disinformation” is it? Well, it seems clear evidence of the incompetence of Patel and our government generally, at least, just based on the fact that it took place.
If the established liars in our government are going to claim that it was “doctored” to make her look even more stupid than we already know she is, well I’ll believe that when they provide meaningful evidence of it and release their own version.
So much for the geneva convention, this is sickening, Ukranians shooting POWs in the legs as they arrive at the detension center (GRAPHIC WARNING NSFW)
https://southfront.org/shocking-evidence-of-ukrainian-regimes-essence-video-21/
And we’re sending them weapons?
Well….the Russians did alert us that there were Azov Brigade Nazis in Ukraine and 14,000 Donbass civilians had been killed by their shelling since 2014.
But then the UK ‘Deep State’ has been secretly ‘at War” with Russia since 2014.
Just been reading the DT article on places to escape to. It sounds as if it’s trying to be balanced to begin with, then the author just can’t help allowing emotive words to creep in – such as ”pernicious” when describing Mike Yeadon. Then it becomes clear where the author is coming from and how clumsy he is while trying to be ‘cleverly’ manipulative. About as subtle as a sledgehammer.
It’s all interesting – but these hacks really should learn to disguise their real feelings – or at least be more artful when trying to coerce us.
Now the full video of the prank call is out, it looks like Ben Wallace did indeed give out information sensitive to National Security. Remember he doesn’t know this is a prank, he thinks he’s talking to the Ukranian PM, it seems there is a plan to keep poking the bear.
Full Video by Vovan and Lexus Pranking UK Secretary of State for Defence Ben Wallace Giving Strategic Information (screenshot from UK Column analisys)
https://odysee.com/@RaymondTheBrave:5/Full-Video-by-Vovan-and-Lexus-with-UK-Secretary-of-State-for-Defence-Ben-Wallace:a
And yet he is still in Office! Unbelievable!
( But then this is the Johnson Regime of Jokers!)
The biggest assault on freedom of speech and democracy I’ve known in my lifetime” is on-going ……but look!
Quick! Over there! “Ukraine”!