On Sunday evening, the Washington Post reported that, since December, Russia has lost 20,000 men in Bakhmut alone. The extraordinary figure came from John Kirby, chief spokesman for America’s National Security Council. The next day, another NSC spokesman clarified that the figure actually refers to “all of Russia’s losses across Ukraine, not just in Bakhmut”.
Still, 20,000 dead in only five months of fighting seems high. Is it plausible? We can check using the database compiled by Mediazona and BBC News Service Russia.
Since the start of Russia’s invasion, these two organisations have been tracking Russian deaths by reviewing publicly available reports, such as obituaries, social media posts by relatives, and statements by local authorities. Their method seems far more reliable than making inferences from photos of destroyed equipment – which could be doctored, used out of context or even generated by AI.
As of April 7, they count 19,688 men KIA. This figure corresponds to the Russian Armed Forces and Wagner PMC but not not the DPR and LPR militias. Using the internet archive, we can see that the total count was 9,503 as of December 2. Which means that it has increased by 10,184 since the start of December.
Now, there must be some degree of underestimation as not all deaths are publicly reported. The compilers of the database suggest the true figure may be twice as high. This means that the Russian Armed Forces and Wagner PMC have lost between 10,184 and 20,368 men since the start of December.
We also have to add losses for the DPR and LPR militias. The DPR, which is the larger of the two, documented its own losses “faithfully” (according to the Economist) until December 22, when it ceased documenting them. As of December 22, the figure stood at 4,163. And based on “open sources”, Mediazona and BBC News Service Russia estimated that the LPR had lost around 1,000 men as of November 10.
If we assume these losses occurred at the same rate since the relevant dates as they did before them, total losses since the start of Russia’s invasion would amount to 7,591. Subtracting those from before December yields a figure of 2,636. Note that Mediazona and BBC News Service Russia have independently estimated losses for the two separatist militias at 9,000 – which corresponds to 3,125 since the start of December.
It follows that total losses for Russian forces over the last five months are somewhere between 10,184 + 2,636 = 12,820 and 20,368 + 3,125 = 23,493. The average of these two estimates is 18,156 – making Kirby’s “20,000 figure” highly plausible. Based on the best available information, Russia probably has lost about 20,000 men since December.
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Never forget that it could well have been over in March 22, if NATO and its British messenger boy hadn’t sabotaged that.
Whatever the reason is for the complete absence of diplomacy, wealth and power will be moving in one direction towards the minority, primarily at the expense of Ukrainian and Russian lives this time round. BAE Systems share price is probably inversely proportional to the level of diplomatic effort.
Who would downvote diplomacy and the avoidance of war?
You’ll have to forgive me, but I dont believe a word coming from either side…
This. Totally this.
Me neither. Who knows what the actual truth is.
BBC News Service Russia.. I stopped reading right there..
3 weeks ago the Fake News reported that Russia lost 200.000 men in the past year or so. The entire army….now they row it back and say ‘okay 20,000 since December’. Whatever.
In related news, Rona was the greatest plague in history and we have -10 years to save the planet from plant food. All hail.
26 Apr 2023….General Christopher G. Cavoli (USA) · Commander, United States European Command and · Supreme Allied Commander, Europe · Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe…..……
…stated in testimony to the House Armed Services Committee…..that the degradation of the Russian armed forces” was grossly misrepresented by the media.”
“Most of the Russian military has not been affected negatively by this conflict,” Cavoli said..
Shouldn’t he know?
Total nonsense.
Even the pro-Nato propaganda merchants the BBC stated that only 16,071 named Russian troops had died in total up to March 2023.
(This does not include a few thousand Wagner troops who are the spearhead of Russian attacks.)
They daren’t tell the world the Ukrainian losses which are in the hundreds of thousands.
Why don’t the so-called “impartial” BBC research the Ukrainian losses?
https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-64840229?ocid=wsrussian.social.in-app-messaging.telegram..russiantelegram_.edit
The BBC have revised this figure to just 17,375 named Russian troops.
https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-64984414
Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu told a conference call with military commanders on Tuesday 2nd May 2023
“The Russian Armed Forces are conducting active operations along the entire engagement line. Despite the unprecedented military assistance from Western countries, the enemy is sustaining heavy losses.”
According to the data of the Russian Defense Ministry, in the past month alone, the Kiev regime lost over 15,000 troops, eight combat aircraft and 277 unmanned aerial vehicles, 430 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 18 multiple rocket launchers and 225 artillery guns and mortars.
As the data indicate, Ukraine’s manpower losses proved to be higher in April than in February while equipment losses exceeded the January figures (the latest information publicly reported by the Russian Defense Ministry), although Ukraine lost more aircraft at that time.
https://tass.com/defense/1612163
With Russia’s huge artillery advantage these figures are much more believable than the ridiculous 20,000 losses plucked out of the air from so-called “US Intelligence” which is an oxymoron.
Imagine the BBC put that much effort into the more easily researched unexplained and sudden deaths in the UK.
Bet they would get more than 20,000 in the past 5 months…
That’s naughty, A Y M, you’re supposed to be getting distracted by Bad Man Putin! Stop saying these things! You’re a traitor!
Marcus Ak, I often wish I could get distracted like I’m supposed to. I’m sure my life would be much simpler.
You know what I mean.
Knowing next to nothing about the daily developments in this war, it was obvious to me that the statement “Russia has lost 20,000 men in Bakhmut alone” is complete and utter nonsense.
20,000 soldiers dead in five months of fighting is basically nothing. It makes one wonder if there’s actually a war in Ukraine, let alone, a war of attrition (which has been claimed).
For comparison: The combined losses of the last successful German offensive on the western front which lasted from 05/27/1918 – 05/13/1918 where 302,789 (includes wounded and captured).
^^
06/13/1918
It didn’t involve time travel.
The first casualty in war is the truth. So, no one knows for sure what that is. Certainly not ‘Mediazone’, whoever they are, or the BBC. It’ll be propaganda from both sides. Meanwhile young men die.
And Ukrainian losses? According to UK Column News the Russians are constantly bombarding Ukrainian positions 24/7 and the average life expectancy on the front line for the average Ukrainian solder is measured in hours not even days.
This madness has to stop.
Wrong article. Deleted comment.
According to reliable sources (i.e. Not the BBC or any of the so called “fact checkers”) the Ukrainians have lost over 300 000 KIA.
The fact that there aren’t any embedded journalists with the Ukrainian forces, has always made me very suspicious…
There isn’t any way that what comes out of Ukraine is anything like the truth..and the West don’t want any ‘bad news’….…..
……to a great extent, it’s much more important to know, surely, what is happening with your ‘supposed friends’ than your ‘supposed enemy’? The fact that they only concentrate on the latter is another red flag for me….
“red flag”….nice one.