Those of you with longer memories may remember my previous article, published in February, in which I suggested that Xi Jin Ping’s political future would be strongly linked to the CCP ‘Zero Covid’ policy and its perceived success or failure. What, then, of Xi Jin Ping’s bid for a lifetime term of office, to be decided at the NPC (National People’s Congress) on October 16th?
China’s Zero Covid policy remains very much in place while others, notably New Zealand’s, have been suddenly and embarrassingly abandoned. Jacinda Ardern’s statement “We just need to respect everyone’s individual decisions” with regard to ongoing mask-wearing is laughable from someone who sacked state employees who took the individual decision not to be vaccinated. But China’s continuing policy has had deep and sometimes bizarre consequences. Chengdu, where most pandas come from, is a mega-city of 21 million people and was recently locked down for 19 days, until last weekend.
Al Jazeera reported last week that “Residents of Ghulja (where most Uighurs come from) in China’s far western Xinjiang region say they have run out of food after more than 40 days under a strict coronavirus lockdown.” These are heavy lockdowns, by the way: Al Jazeera described them as “whole communities [confined] to their homes for extended periods – with food supplies delivered… with forced medication, arrests and residents being hosed down with disinfectant.”
Back in Chengdu, there was “Outcry as Chinese lockdown traps residents during earthquake” (BBC). Allowing people out of locked compounds was apparently more of a risk (because of Covid) than a 6.8 magnitude earthquake which killed at least 65 people.
This weekend, a coach crash near Guiyang in south China killed 27 passengers while on their forced transportation to a quarantine facility some 150km from their homes. Comments on the Weibo forum were allowed – but only two out of 96 were published.
Because of censorship it is difficult to assess the degree of pushback against policies, but Sina Weibo and TikTok have been busy. There was also genuine concern about coverage of Her late Majesty’s funeral, with many Chinese very surprised at the almost entire absence of face masks (the Chinese delegation excepted). But pushback there is.
So what is the endgame here? Your correspondent makes these predictions.
Firstly, little will happen in the next two to three weeks. The October 16th start to the CCP’s 20th National Congress, at which Xi Jin Ping’s term is up for renewal, is too close for any major announcements. In any event, a change from Zero Covid policy at this stage would be perceived as an admission of failure.
Instead, there will be suppression of dissent. On September 20th, the Weibo account of Lao Dongyan was wiped. She is a Professor of Law at the pre-eminent Tsing Hua University and had 400,000 followers. She is a policy critic. Expect more of the same.
Secondly, Xi Jin Ping will be re-elected. This will not be for life, as often previously assumed, but will be for a third term. Nobody has done this since Mao, so there is a personal achievement for Xi. But not even he is exempt from the CCP consequences of policy failure, so there will be no life term. A clue to eventual succession will be provided by the people escorting him onto the stage.
Thirdly, China will then abandon Zero Covid. Not quite immediately, and not all at once, as in New Zealand. That is not the China way. But China’s economy, and perhaps population, demands the opening of borders with Hong Kong, Asia and beyond. Xi Jin Ping will present this as looking to future prosperity: a leap forward, but perhaps not a great one.
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The West following China down the lockdown path was a great win for Xi, showing the CCP to be leading the world and bolstering its reputation inside China. Perhaps this latest lockdown had an element of trying on the same gambit? Fortunately, it didn’t work this time, not that there was any shortage of western politicians and scientists wanting another turn playing dictator.
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Is this a recruitment drive for the Civil Service?
I don’t understand what’s going on in China one bit. It makes even less sense than what is happening in the West, can be readily understood via the Reset BS. Why does China feel the need to go along with the same horrors? Has Billy offered Xi Jing eternal life in return for his participation?
No, I just don’t get it.
For the same reason our lot are still pushing the jabs, they cannot admit they failed, so would rather keep going than do the right thing.
Only once we’ve entered 2031 without the social credit system, and our society hasn’t devolved into a Mad Max nightmare, can we say they’ve failed.
My bet is that it is as simple as when one takes a wrong turn on the way somewhere and instead of going back one stubbornly and out of pride prefers to carry on and find a different route that will somehow lead to the planned destination.
The CCP introduced the concept of lockdowns to the world. They looked like they had succeeded at first. They became extremely hubristic about it, holding a massive re-opening, end of COVID party in Wuhan in 2020. For a while they looked like the clever ones making authoritarians in the western world green with envy.
Then when it turned out that these things only go away when they make their way naturally through the population and they had actually handicapped themselves, it would have been a massive loss of face to drop the policy and accept they’d got it wrong. And the more stupid their policy looks the more they have to insist on it out of sheer pride.
Western technocrats and corporate executives and idiots like Trudeau love to say how much they admire the CCP conveniently forgetting that they are responsible for some of the largest scale stupidities in modern history including the Great Leap Forward that killed about 40 million people, the Cultural Revolution that killed another 30 million, and the one child policy that is about to unleash demographic armageddon on the country.
It’s hard to believe that people so powerful can at the same time be so spectacularly stupid. But that’s exactly what they are. Proud and stupid.
Indeed. I assumed they’d just fiddle the covid figures and say they’d beaten it – that would have been the smart thing to do.
It’s some kind of 3D chess that I’ll never understand, but there must be some half-way plausible answer, right?
Where have you been Bill?
Global politics, just like national politics, has completely different dynamics to how it is advertised. For example; we’re told the Tories are conservative, but that’s an oxymoron. We’re repeatedly told by the Tories that they will deal with mass immigration, but that’s a bag of BS.
We were told at the Labour conference that they’re pro-British and played the national anthem (exactly Tony Blair’s campaign strategy to woo the public), but that’s an oxymoron. We’re repeatedly told Labour and the Tories are opposition, but that too is a bag of BS.
Labour has facilitated the Tories demolition of the UK. Their politics are barely separable and there is no chance of another fringe party gate-crashing the show. It’s rigged, democracy is a façade.
We’re told “peaceful protests” in various countries in the Middle East happened because a very sudden, extremely well orchestrated set of people started demanding their countries adopt a western (Kaffir) political system. The same countries had coincidentally been declared targets of American driven ‘regime-change’ – at the behest of Israel. Those countries had -previous to their regime change- operated their own banking systems, now they’re all in the same club as the rest of us – just a coincidence of course.
Apparently, only Iran and possibly still Syria, have their own banking system. Note the constant ‘protests’ that stink of western interference in those countries.
Going back to the Red Revolution; Wall Street Capitalism funded and engineered Communism, and then later imported over 77,000 communists into America within a couple years during the early 70’s. We’ve always been lead to believe America and Russia are mortal enemies whilst the closest they’ve previously come to battle is a race to the moon in junk held together with sticky-tape.
The Wall Street revolution, of course, infiltrated China too…
Italy adopted full-blown communism a few years ago when the West launched Agenda 2030. If you learn the origins of the Italian Mafia and the Russian Mafiya – everything starts to click together.
We’re in one big rancorous global community of depopulating maniacs.
That’s my explanation anyway, take it or leave it.
Why are comments closed on other recent articles?
Which articles?
…first of all who the heck is Kwai Lou?…..as far as I am aware it’s an ‘insult’ in Cantonese against white or impotent men!
Also anyone who supposedly writes seriously about China and calls the CPC (the Communist Party of China, it’s official name….)the CCP, probably has a ‘western agenda’ from the off….
Happy to be disabused…..
The Chinese are obsessed about not “losing face.” So Xi will stay and the Zero Covid policy will be slowly and quietly relaxed. Before long, no-one will die of Covid in China because no Covid deaths will be recorded.