Average global temperatures rose rapidly after the 1970s, but there has been little further warming over the most recent 10 to 15 years to 2013. So said the Met Office in a report about the ‘pause’ in global warming in 2013. But these days it’s ‘What pause?’ following two timely revisions of the Met Office HadCRUT temperature database, including the recent 14% boost revealed by the Daily Sceptic on Monday.
As the above graph shows, the December 2020 14% boost in recent temperatures in HadCRUT5 finally erased the inconvenient pause. An earlier revision to HadCRUT4 had started the work by removing a flatline trend and replacing it with some gentle warming.
Attempting to explain the pause when it was still around in 2013, the Met Office claimed that the additional heat from the continued rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide, “has been absorbed in the oceans”. There are of course constant heat exchanges between land, sea and air. Constructing a believable hypothesis that humans burning fossil fuel cause heat in the atmosphere, which suddenly decides to play temporary hide and seek in the oceans, was always a tall order. It was memorably given short shrift by the writer Clive James, who just before his death wrote: “When you tell people once too often that the missing extra heat is hiding in the ocean, they will switch over to watch Game of Thrones, where the dialogue is less ridiculous and all the threats come true.” He went on to add that the proponents of man-made climate catastrophe asked us for so many leaps of faith “they are bound to run out of credibility in the end”.
Much of the Met Office report refers to the outputs of climate models. Analysis of “simulated” natural variability suggests that “at least two periods with apparently zero trend for a decade would be expected on average every century”. As it turned out, this was a lousy forecast, even for a climate model. The pause ended under the influence of a powerful El Nino weather fluctuation soon after. Despite another large El Nino in 2019, it failed to interrupt another pause which to date has lasted over seven years.
Announcing its latest boost to global warming, the Met Office noted that HadCRUT5 was now “in line” with other datasets. This is true. NASA has also been updating its GISS database in similar fashion, removing the pause by warming up recent recordings. Changes over the record have been substantial with a range of 0.3C.
There is no doubt that extreme green zealotry runs through many scientific institutions. Commanding and controlling the economy through the Net Zero project is seen by these zealots as the last hope to save the world. These days, no scepticism or debate about the role of atmospheric CO2 can be tolerated. The science is “settled” – seemingly any tactics are justified for the greater good.
Peter Kalmus is a data scientist at NASA and was recently arrested outside the JP Morgan Chase building in Los Angeles during an Extinction Rebellion tantrum. Wearing a large XR badge, he raged: “I have been trying to warn you guys for so many decades that we are heading towards a fucking climate disaster… it’s got to stop, we are losing everything… we are seeing heat domes, people are drowning, wildfires are getting worse… it is going to take us to the brink of civilisational collapse.” He later described his experience in the Guardian, adding: “If everyone could see what I see coming, society would switch into climate emergency mode and end fossil fuels in just a few years.” In his view, it was no exaggeration to say that Chase and other banks “are contributing to murder and neocide through their fossil fuel finance”.
It is interesting how zealots such as Kalmus are focusing on bad weather events rather than the increasingly unreliable global warming motif, for their ‘end is nigh’ political messaging. Heat domes became fashionable last year in North America when it was discovered that some parts of the country are warmer than others during the summer. Wildfires provide plenty of scary headlines, not least when the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) – the keeper of all US wildfire figures for decades – removed all its data from before 1983.
As the graph above clearly shows, wildfires were far worse in the past. 1983 just happens to be the lowest point in the entire record from which a small recent rise can be seen. The data going back to 1926 is simple to compile – the number of fires and acreage affected. In the past, the NIFC noted that figures prior to 1983 may be revised as it “verifies historical data”. Last year it suddenly removed all the collations prior to 1983, stating that “there is no official data prior to 1983 posted on this site”. Is that what “verifying” means in climate emergency-word? Deleting?
Commenting on the move, the climate writer Anthony Watts noted: “This wholesale erasure of important public data stinks, but in today’s narrative control culture that wants to rid us of anything that might be inconvenient or doesn’t fit the ‘woke’ narrative, it isn’t surprising.”
Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor
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Would be nice to see the points for the UK parties
…particularly concerning ‘green’/net zero matters.
I think Noah’s last paragraph nails it, pretty much. There are other things, of course. People are suffering under all of the agendas being pushed by governments in the West, but immigration is the biggie.
On the topic of Europe and migrants…More regarding the paying off by the German government of actual dangerous criminals, just to get them out of the country. Sounds like a deterrent to me ( not );
”Last week, the German government, led by social democrat Olaf Scholz, deported 28 convicted criminals to Kabul. Among them was a rejected asylum-seeker who took part in the brutal and cunning gang rape of a 14-year-old girl. According to the German mainstream media, each of the deported criminals, including the gang rapist, was given 1000 Euros in cash to help start a new life back home in Afghanistan.
This is civilizational decline in action. It’s essentially a new Danegeld, one that sees Taxpayer’s money paid out by a morally adrift leftist system that prostrates itself in front of child-raping criminals for fear of being thought of as ‘racist,’ ‘uncaring,’ and ‘impolite.”
Under Merkel, persecuted people—brave Afghan Hazara women or Iranian women fighting against tyranny—were left in limbo in countries like Turkey or Pakistan, unable to secure legal visas to Germany or afford a ticket out of hell. Meanwhile, privileged, fighting-age young men with no evident history of political dissent were able to afford to pay traffickers tens of thousands of euros to enter Germany illegally.
Once there, these men received generous public support by posing as ‘politically persecuted people.’ This comes even though many of these young men actually regularly go on holiday back to the countries where their life is supposedly ‘in danger.’
In 2019, the consequences of Merkel’s woke, unselective immigration policies led to tragedy in Illerkirchberg. After a party, a 14-year-old girl was lured to a refugee shelter that the government had opened in the village. There a group of foreign, asylum-seeking young men drugged her and then raped her nine times.
Many Germans today do not want to see what is happening with their society. They do not see the shadows rising up yet again. Blinded by Germany’s current prosperity, they do not wish to break with political correctness to consider what future portends for their democratic society.
Instead, they hide behind the meaningless words of myopic leaders like Olaf Scholz, who assure them with powerful platitudes that everything will be all right. Instead of fixing the deep-seated failures at hand, these politicians engage only in electoral cosmetics.”
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2024/09/german_gov_to_foreign_criminals_rape_a_14_year_old_get_1000_to_start_a_new_life.html
Blinded by Germany’s current prosperity,
This is ebbing away on a weekly basis as companies file for bankruptcy, close down or move production out of Germany. Educated young Germans are leaving in drives creating a skills shortage for companies remaining in Germany. Tax income that relies a lot on sales tax is falling fast as people are getting poorer due to rising costs and of course high electricity costs due to the Energiewende insanity.
Sorry but you can’t represent my views on social issues and economic issues with a dot on a two dimensional graph. Not in a way that is anything but superficial and ultimately meaningless.
In any case, I don’t need a contrived pseudo-scientific study to explain why “populist” politicians are gaining popularity.
The establishment is aggressively pushing policies that are radical and unpopular. Net zero, large scale immigration, trans rights, equity and diversity being several clear examples.
And to make it even worse, the establishment labels opposition to these policies as extremist when it is the policies that are extremist and the opposition which is sensible and moderate. i.e. it is gaslighting the population.
So any politician who stands up to establishment radicalism is going to (a) get the support of people and (b) be called radical, extremist, far right etc.
There’s the entire explanation right there. No need for contrived graphs.
The only way to represent and analyse the views of large numbers of people is graphically.
paragraph after paragraph describing the views of each interviewee would not get to the heart of the matter.
That sounds sensible. But reasoning along those lines is probably what “climate scientists” use to justify their bullshit models.
Some simplifications and approximations may serve as faithful enough representations of reality and some may be complete distortions. Some may say nothing at all.
It really depends. What I know for sure is that my political position cannot in any accurate or meaningful way be represented on that two dimensional graph. And I doubt very much most other people’s can either.
Your last paragraph. Quite so, and we all change our views and positions as we progress through life and events unfold.
Trying to quantify the qualifiable, beloved of Statists, to produce a number that is ‘representative’.
There is no representative view of a mass of people, there is no one animus, no single ‘Will of the People’.
Thus is why the Parties all wander around in an imaginary ‘centre ground’ which supposedly represents what everyone wants.
And having different shapes, rather than just different colours, helps those than can see different shapes, but not different colours.
Thank you.
Indeed. But sadly not enough Europeans support “populists” for many of them to get into power.
Less so if the electoral system is rigged to underrepresent them.
In any case, I agree support is still low and likely to remain that way for as long they suppress it with the mind trick and brainwashing that makes people think that moderate policies are extremist ones.
Yup, the mind trick might eventually be dispelled when things get really bad, but then I kept thinking the “covid” nonsense would collapse because it was so invasive and such obvious bollocks.
Maybe soon they wont be able to hide it……’It’ being the replacement of the native population and the crimes that they import. It is hard to hide the scumbags that go round stabbing young girls, even for those dumb middle classes who are the worst to drink the diversity & climate Kool Aid.
Not so far they don’t, but they will learn when any vote by anyone against what the “popular” desire is achieves exactly the opposite.
There will come a time when only 65% for AfD etc will be enough, and then the left will want to change the rules.
After 14 years of unconservative government from the Tories, SIX MILLION people still voted for them despite a credible alternative (Reform) being available.
Astonishing really.
But really once you realise that everything in the human mind is a huge simulation made up of simplified representations of physical reality plus models of made up, abstract ideas, then you can’t help but accept how susceptible to programming we are.
I would say you can probably predict to a very high degree of certainty how a person votes based on the media they consume.
Our media is our programming.
I think many did not think of Reform as being a credible party, which of course while they remain owned by Farage they are not. Their challenge is to take control from Farage and become a proper party as soon as possible. Next May’s local elections are crucial to the development of Reform.
What’s wrong with Farage, according to you, and why are they not a “proper party”? Proper or not, they were surely better than the Socialist Woke Tories.
Opinion polls show support for Reform as increasing substantially since the election. Reform are now pushing 20 percent.
It seems that the winning of real seats in the Commons has concentrated people’s minds.
Because we are all supremacists, racists, phobes, anti-science, uneducated, ill favored Nazis and Hitlers of course.
Right wing really is not a useful term to describe the demands of voters to protect our culture, social cohesion and safety. Left winger used to think those were important; just remember the arguments about coal mines in the UK in the 1979s and 1989s.
Left wing, socialist politics has been advancing relentlessly for over a hundred years based on one simple fiendish mind trick: making people think conservatism is right wing.
Conservatism is really by definition centrist. It is the ideology that things should remain as they are as much as possible and any changes should be slow and small. That is the very epitome of balance.
The opposite of making society more socialist and socially “progressive” isn’t not changing things and leaving it as it i. It’s making society LESS socialist and less socially progressive. But that hasn’t been much of an option in the last hundred or so years because everyone has been convinced that standing up firmly for keeping the status quo is “far right”.
Less Socialism is difficult to impose, but it comes from having more independent thinkers, more informed debate, a better understanding of reality, like there’s no money tree, and returning to traditional values in the Arts and Humanities, with Science and Engineering projects being influenced by, yes, those with Science and Engineering knowledge and experience.
Using ‘Not Left’ is as bad as ‘Don’t be negative’.
It would be interesting to repeat the analysis with more recent data. Have the purple and green blobs moved closer together or further apart?
I suspect they have moved further apart – unless the recent ‘populist’ elected politicians have had enough effect to broaden the green blob.
Some supporting evidence from Germany here;
”Support for another term of the federal coalition government is currently at 0 percent, according to the latest ZDF political barometer.
Just 23 percent of the country wants Chancellor Olaf Scholz to remain in post after the next federal election — 74 percent are against it.
Even supporters of his own SPD party want him gone at the election — 49 percent to 47 percent don’t want him to run as the party’s candidate for chancellor.”
https://x.com/RMXnews/status/1832061998772711486
Why do Europeans support those politicians whose policies will best serve their wishes and interests rather than those of the entrenched ruling elite and a globalist nexus of fraudsters, grifters, charlatans, misanthropes, and evil-doers whose intent is to immiserate and impoverish them?
Let me think.
“While voters have similar views to politicians on economic issues…”
Evidence from observation shows that neither politicians nor voters have the faintest idea about economics, so that diagram is meaningless.
Proof: a welfare state complete with its magic money tree, fiat money, astronomic debt.
The notion of a welfare state was invented by Otto v. Bismarck as one prong of his two-pronged strategy to fight socialism (the other was outlawing socalist parties like the SPD). But the German Empire had (until 1914) a gold-based currency and strictly adhered to the principle that the state cannot spend money it didn’t earn first.
It bears repeating here that the AfD is a centre-right party whose manifesto contains all the usual classics for that, eg,
Link to the complete manifesto in English:
https://www.afd.de/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/2017-04-12_afd-grundsatzprogramm-englisch_web.pdf
It’s worth having a look at that to get an idea what Scholze, Faeser, Lang and their ilk really refer to when they apply the label Nazi to their political opponentw (the ‘Nazi-light’ label right wing populist is never really meant that way — It’s always Nazis! when preaching to the choir itself).
Populism is a smear name. To the liberal elites it is a name used to imply dog whistle, the mob, thoughtless politics. As a result it is ok to ignore and or also call it far right.
Could it be that we are sick of having to endure taxation, pain and misery for things that we know are not true, and corruption of our society and government by the very people who we have supposedly put in those places by our ‘democratic process’.
Great article Noah, but for crying out loud,
“In terms of analysis, Günther began by creating two broad indexes”
=
“Günther began by creating two broad indexes”
Please, avoid the ridiculous phrase ‘in terms of‘. It rarely contributes anything to an argument, while making the speaker sound like a Labour politician or BBC sports programme presenter (or just about anyone else on television for that matter).
Er, because they are popular?
LOL. Unpopular populism?
We already know populism is popular because it meets unmet political needs.
Let us not forget the loony left racist antisemitic genocidal rent-a-mob for months has been demonstrating against Israel and for the genocide of all Israelis ‘from the river to the sea‘.
There are so many political issues affecting the majority to protest about but they ignore them. Those issues are politically inconvenient and predominantly affect indigenous white people in the UK.
And they tell us migrants are welcome all the while as fighting age young men literally invade illegally our shores in rubber boats.
This is whilst failing to protest against homelessness of our ex-military and the mental health issues they suffer like PTSD.
They fail to protest homelessness of 80,000 young Brits.
They fail to protest the collapse of public services like health and GP appointments.
They fail to protest the scandal of joblessness in the many deprived regions of the UK.
And why do they protest gender equality for a tiny minority?
Its because they have run out of issues like ‘gay’ rights which are no longer a problem.
Is there a political ‘Right’? Or is it that the existence of views dubbed ‘Left’ creates a contrast to other views which are then dubbed ‘Right’.
Loony – too damn right – and we see them right at the top of government.
The two Davids – Minibrain and Lamebrained Lammy – are great examples.
But how many more are there who are not so visible publicly.
Research described in this DS article – assuming it is reliable – is helpful in being a little bit more specific and helps explain.
It is a little superfluous because it confirms what we already know.
Unmet political needs will remain unmet whilst there remains a loony left.
Is there a sensible left?
There used to be long ago before unseen external interests set about winding up political activists to destabllise the western world.
They say Tony Benn was a ‘good’ Leftist, against handing sovereignty away is very commendable. People mention Ken Livingstone but they should watch when he was interviewed on GBN about Lockdowns. Their authoritarian streek breaks out.
With long gaol terms for tweets, given enough time we’ll all be in the gas chambers faster than two shakes of a lamb’s tail for voting against them.
I think it is more fundamental than that. Establishment parties aren’t just more Left wing on social issues – the issues they care about and talk about are different from the voters.
Establishment parties care about net zero, diversity and inclusion, trans rights and virtue signalling globalist nonsense. The voters just want the politicians to sort out the mess of creaking public services, crumbling social cohesion, lack of patriotism and a cost of living crisis caused by expensive energy.
People can see that the obsessions of the Establishment are wrecking the foundations of our society, and they want that to stop.
They say the madness will end when all the money runs out!
If our Labour government follows the lead of the Tories of the last 14 years, borrowing £128 billion pa it will soon especially if interest rates jump to 15% in one day as they did once before.
It won’t be £100 billion pa in interest repayments but £300 billion pa, so the borrowing of £128 billion pa will jump to £328 billion pa – roughly.