The collapse of US-Canada trade talks last week, and Prime Minister Mark Carney’s declaration that “you’re at war when you get attacked,” has turned a tariff dispute into a political toxin that now sits inside the one relationship still holding North American energy security together. Fifty-percent US tariffs have taken effect on billions of dollars of Canadian goods; Ottawa has promised dollar-for-dollar retaliation from September 8th. Crude oil, natural gas and potash were, for the moment, carved out of the American levies, but that exemption cannot be thought permanent. The uncertainty, the public flirtation with using oil as a retaliatory instrument and Carney’s larger strategic posture toward Washington already threaten the physical barrels and the political trust on which the 2025 National Security Strategy depends.
The contrast with what seemed possible only a year earlier could not be more dramatic. The August 2025 Anchorage meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, however inconclusive on Ukraine, opened a window onto a potentially different energy order: one in which sanctions-driven distortions might have eased and Russian Arctic and Siberian resources might have again attracted Western capital. Combined with the January 2026 capture of Nicolás Maduro and Washington’s subsequent assertion of control over the rules of Venezuelan oil production, that vision promised hemispheric abundance rather than managed scarcity. Carney’s brinkmanship now risks putting a dagger through it – and doing so at the expense of Alberta first.
The Anchorage window and the promise of abundance
On August 15th 2025,
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That is a very interesting explanation Mr Doshi.
This is an excellent article and Dr. Doshi’s ability to explain a complex issue is admirable.
A lot of stupid people in Canada support Carney in his battles with Trump because they don’t understand the energy dynamic that Dr. Doshi has laid out.
However, Carney has just won 4 by-elections, literally on Monday, that strengthen his slim majority government. The aggressive trade posture worked for those by-election victories.
It may be that having secured these victories Carney will return to the negotiating table next week.
Fred Karney’s Army?
He’s probably overestimated his importance on the world stage (somewhat like our own Andy).
Probably? May I suggest, definitely.
He Is the globalist elites globalist. He represents very powerful and rich interests.
Carney is now playing politics either trade and security as he did in London with inflation, financial markets and Brexit.
Watch him try to create an EU based toothless security pact with the EU.
Watch the western provinces test whether they can leave the Canadian federation. I would advise independence with ties to the US rather than Statehood.
Says the leader of a country with only 41.5 million people!
Who the fu@k do you think cares?
“resulting in a very low overall population density of about 4 to 4.2 people per square kilometer”
Ps: the point 2 of a person is Carney himself!
True. But he is also the globalists globalist. He is the public face of the globalist elites (financial, political and industrial and political) fightback against Trump and all western democracies where populism is on the march against globalisation.
Carney is a puppet of the British Empire which Trump is waging war against. The Empire and its affiliates have rendered themselves deindustrialised and militarily incapable through their perverse and undemocratic policies of recent decades. The USA will win this war.