Viktor Orbán’s defeat does not mean that Hungarian voters have rejected his tough on immigration, pro-natalist or Brussels-critical policies, says Michael Mosbacher in the Telegraph. Peter Magyar and his Tisza party are Orbanism without Orbán. Here’s an excerpt.
The electoral winners, Peter Magyar and his Tisza party, have achieved their robust electoral mandate on the back of a remarkably similar electoral programme.
Magyar is a social conservative who wants to increase financial incentives to have children, cut taxes, double the defence budget and has criticised Orbán for admitting too many migrants under Hungary’s guest worker schemes. On effectively every issue he sits firmly on the Right of European politics.
Magyar was a member of Orbán’s Fidesz party until 2024. When the anti-Orbánites ran in past general elections on a liberal platform they always lost. They have only won by promising Orbánism without Orbán. The old opposition parties were so desperate to defeat Fidesz that nearly all decided not to contest this election and gave Tisza a clean run.
Orban has suffered a clear defeat, but it has been very much exacerbated by his own electoral manipulations. Hungary has an electoral system specifically designed to give a large majority to the winning party, which Fidesz always assumed would be itself. Now this has bitten Orbán’s party back. Expect Fidesz’s other constitutional reforms also to now be weaponised against it.
Rightly or wrongly, many Hungarians perceived Orbán’s Government to be corrupt. They resent the fact that some of those close to Orbán have become extremely rich. Over 16 years, power has become entrenched.
Primarily this is what Hungarian voters rejected on Sunday. Some British conservatives who went to Hungary to work with its extensive network of Right-wing think tanks, hoping to see a replay Thatcherite-type renewal, left a few years later disillusioned by Fidesz’s duplicity. Hungarians believe they have just thrown out an ossified, self-serving elite. …
Ursula von der Leyen and the Brussels establishment will be uncorking the champagne, but they have less reason to cheer than Kyiv. Magyar will want to prove that he really will deliver an Orban-lite agenda, rather than just be Brussels’s patsy. The easiest way of proving this will be picking a fight with the EU Commission and proving he is willing to stand up for Hungarian national interests.
Worth reading in full.
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One big test for Magyar & the new Government is a decision as to whether they will participate in the EU’s Pact for Migration & Asylum, where the EU distributes quotas of migrants to ALL EU Member states. This is due to start in June this year.
When this policy was announced in early 2024, Orban stated bluntly that Hungary would not participate and if any migrants were sent there – they would be put on buses and driven to Brussels.
He has said he will not tolerate illegal immigration. But if they are quotas distributed by Brussels, they are not illegal. So a very hollow promise.
Sure about that? These people are celebrating his election.
https://x.com/endwokeness/status/2043520193423462726
I’m not Hungarian but speak the language (somewhat) and own a property and visit the country regularly and discuss politics with my friends there. Magyar is a weak leader with several skeletons in the closet. He cannot be trusted with the time of the day. He has a tendency of changing his message depending on what he thinks the audience want to hear, sometimes saying the direct opposite of what he told a different audience previously. At some point his duplicity will come around to bite him. Even the people who voted for him say they don’t trust him all the way.
Is there any truth to his personal life? In terms of his marriage, and a wife who is writing a book about that?
Judit Varga? It’s very murky. The fact that these allegations came out just as Magyar was exposing government corruption suggests that it was a political smear. Doesn’t mean that there’s necessarily no truth at all to the allegations, of course. Murky.
Since the first thing Magyar has done is called for the UK to rejoin the EU, copying Zelensky and “on message” with Two-Tier Keir who intends us doing just that, I’m not feeling very positive towards him.
I think leaders can go on too long – even good ones – and become too closed-minded and possibly surrounded by people who are too eager to please. I think this happened to Thatcher in the end and she was not able to see it.
Sixteen years is eight years too long for any leader. It was time for Orban to go; well overdue.
True. But recently I was surprised (because I disagreed with Orbán on many things) to read a speech he made about Ukraine, and to find myself agreeing with every word.
Hungary’s new PM urges Britain to rejoin the EU as Starmer talks up push to unwind Brexit… and dodge votes on taking Brussels rules | Daily Mail Online
Lady of the Mercians commented on this:
“Lol. Do one. Hungary is one of the biggest beneficiaries of EU funding. Of course they want one of the biggest net contributors to start handing over cash again. On yer bike, scrounger.”
“Rightly or wrongly, many Hungarians perceived Orbán’s Government to be corrupt. They resent the fact that some of those close to Orbán have become extremely rich.”
Rightly or wrongly, haha.
Oh, yes, being in Orban’s inner circle was very profitable.
I never liked him but he did some good things.
All we can do is watch and wait and see what transpires.
Hungarians on Twitter saying this guy is basically Orban 2.0, only without the Putin bromance. But I’m more concerned about what his relationship with the EU blob will look like going forward as I don’t see how he’ll be able to keep a strong commitment to maintaining national sovereignty and the migrants out whilst simultaneously having positive relations with the globalists in Brussels. They were fining Hungary silly money for not accepting their fair share of third world ‘enrichers’ but Orban stood firm, even if the economy took a hit. I guess we watch and wait;
”Magyar now stands in the middle of an impossible balancing act. Voters will judge him quickly on growth, on wages, on whether life feels better. And that brings him back to Brussels.
There is a growing insistence among some commentators that this was not a victory for the left — that Magyar remains a conservative figure who is “Orbán without the corruption.” The political reality is often less accommodating.
There will likely be an attempt to bridge the gap — to project toughness domestically while negotiating pragmatically behind closed doors. That is the familiar choreography of European politics. But it is also a difficult… Read more »
I disagree about the “Orban without corruption” part. There may have been a lot of corruption in the state, but not more so than there is in,say, Brussels. But strangely none of this corruption ever led to Orban himself. And seeing the foreign basically never stopped digging, they would surely have found something by now. Many of the more corrupt and sleazy figures have already walked across the aisle to Magyar, who welcomed thjem with open arms, and in contrast to Orban does not appear to be an entirely clean figure himself.
Magyar wants EU cash = he can be bought.
After the first enlargement in 1973, when UK, Ireland, Denmark joined the Continuity Third Reich (EEC), the later entrants were all bought with promises of cash for infrastructure and Government enlargement and lucrative jobs for retiring or failed Ministers the European Commission.
Once Magyar is on the payroll he will be the Fourth Reich’s most humble and obedient servant.
I think you are right.
There is plenty in his bio to suggest he is a duplicitous snake. I have my doubts that he will hold the line for long.
I hope so for the sake of the Hungarians.