Ed Miliband is set to lose his seat to Reform at the next election in a Labour wipeout, the most comprehensive analysis of this month’s local election results has found. The Telegraph has the story.
A ward-level breakdown of the results from the May 1st elections shows that Labour would lose all but three of the seats it holds in the areas that voted [in the local election], while Reform would win 81 [of those] seats in Parliament at a General Election. The Conservatives would lose two of their shadow cabinet ministers.
Electoral Calculus, the polling firm, analysed the results from each of the hundreds of wards in this round of local elections and used the results to predict what would happen in each of the 145 Westminster constituencies where a vote was held.
The constituencies are spread across the country but concentrated in the Midlands, where the former Tory MP Dame Andrea Jenkyns also won the Lincolnshire Mayoral election for Reform.
The results show the stark rise in popularity of Nigel Farage’s party, which would hold its two seats in the areas that voted and win an additional 79 constituencies from Labour, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.
Fifty-nine of the predicted new Reform seats are currently held by Labour, 19 are held by the Conservatives and one is held by the Lib Dems.
Labour would also lose four seats to the Green Party, while the Conservatives would lose six seats to the Lib Dems, in a crushing of the two major political parties.
Among the casualties would be Mr Miliband, the Energy Secretary, who has held his Doncaster North constituency for two decades but is facing a collapse in local support for Labour.
If Doncaster residents were to vote for the same party at a General Election as in the local elections, Reform would win 46% of the vote to Mr Miliband’s 29%, the results show.
Local Labour campaigners say the party is facing an “extinction” event after the winter fuel cut for pensioners and a tightening of unemployment benefit rules by Rachel Reeves in her last two fiscal statements.
Labour (and the Tories) will be praying it was a local election protest vote that won’t be reproduced in a national election. But then, the polls are currently indicating otherwise…
Worth reading in full.
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