Just over half (55%) of those who backed the Tories under Boris Johnson in 2019 plan to do so again under Rishi Sunak, according to research from Redfield & Wilton Strategies.
Fifteen per cent of 2019 Conservative voters plan to back Reform, which is to the Right of the Tories on issues including Net Zero and legal and illegal immigration.
Despite Labour having a national poll lead of around 20 points, only 13% of those surveyed said they planned to support Sir Keir Starmer’s party.
The figures suggest many voters in Red Wall constituencies – traditional Labour seats that backed the Tories for the first time in 2019 – could continue to reject the official opposition.
Nationally, Reform is polling at around 10%, and was the third largest party – outperforming the Liberal Democrats – in data published by BMG on Monday.
Richard Tice, the Reform leader, has pledged to stand candidates in every seat at the next election and argued the Conservatives must be “punished” at the ballot box.
The amount of votes picked up by Mr. Tice’s party was bigger than the Labour majorities at the Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth by-elections in October, effectively costing the Conservatives both seats.
A separate poll by JL Partners on Monday found that 15% of 2019 Tory voters intend to switch to Reform.
The party’s policies include adopting “net zero immigration”, which would mean the number of people entering the United Kingdom could not exceed the amount who leave, cutting corporation tax and income tax and nationalising half of major utility companies to “stop consumers being ripped off”.
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