The contrast between the evidence sessions of Prof. John Edmunds (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, SAGE modeller) and Prof. Carl Heneghan at the Covid Inquiry yesterday was absolutely shocking and raises huge questions about the professionalism of the Inquiry.
The King’s Counsel in the morning spent hours questioning Edmunds in a friendly, at times obsequious manner, as he explained how misunderstood the modelling was, how it wasn’t needed to justify lockdowns – as the indicative Basic reproduction number (R0) and Indicative Fatality Rate (IFR) were enough – to justify earlier and harder lockdown measures. Yet, according to Edmunds, the modelling would still be needed in the future. Truly an “all things to all men modelling” – useful when needed to justify future lockdowns, yet hides in the corner when retrospectively scrutinised and compared with real-world data. Three key flaws in the Covid modelling have been highlighted:
- Over-estimation of the effect of mandatory NPIs versus under-estimation of the effect of voluntary NPIs.
- Over-estimation of ICU per hospitalised rates, where the Imperial College team doubled the rate of hospitalised patients going into ICU to 30% based on flawed data from China.
- Failure to take into account the impact of prior and innate immunity in the population, especially children and the asymptomatic.
These aren’t flaws that can be explained away by saying the scenarios changed with the reality of lockdowns. For example, ICU rates are unaffected by shelter-in-place orders and school closures.
The dangerous implication here is that the Covid Inquiry is lining us up for future restrictions based on indicative RO and IFR, a lockdown hair-trigger switch that gives more authority to the modellers.
The soft-ball questioning and praise from the Inquiry continued as the discussion moved to Summer 2020, circuit breakers and the elision from “flatten the curve” to “zero Covid”.
Then the Inquiry moved on to the Downing Street Summit, where other voices – counsel highlighting as the ‘let it rip’ brigade – were invited at short notice. The big reveal was that Angela McLean, who has replaced Sir Patrick Vallance as Chief Scientific Officer, referred to Carl Heneghan as a “f*ckwit” in a contemporaneous WhatsApp chat, while Edmunds challenged Heneghan’s epidemiological knowledge. In my view, the Inquiry raising the point in this way is indicative of a lack of professionalism.
The Inquiry was also keen to include another pet villain – Doctor Death – the sobriquet applied by McLean to refer to Rishi Sunak, for the perceived crime of pushing for Eat Out to Help Out to reinvigorate the pub and restaurant industry, and providing a much needed morale boost to the nation.
The questioning continued for hours, covering the narrative classics of Long Covid, why the Vaccine rollout should have been broader, etc., all carried out in a cosy relationship included Baroness Hallett’s freely-given praise for Edmund, Ferguson and the whole modelling team.
By contrast, the interrogation of Carl Heneghan started out with a blatant attempt to undermine his credentials, strongly re-buffed by Carl, setting a tone for the only adversarial evidence session I have seen at this Inquiry so far. Any discussion that strayed from the narrative was met with aggressive and hostile demands for ‘yes/no’ answers.
Counsel objected to Carl’s answer rightly pointing out the danger of lockdowns to care homes, as he wanted to concentrate on focused protection and the misrepresentation of it by Counsel as hermetically sealing up the old and vulnerable. The minimum of critical thinking could have told Counsel that it was about reducing risk where it was highest, rather than across the board.
Carl was challenged on his views on the Great Barrington Declaration (GBD) – he broadly agreed with it, he explained, but didn’t sign at the time as he needed more evidence on the details as you would expect, before Counsel dived into the Downing Street conference call.
Carl was challenged on his definition of ‘Endemicity’ on that call (presumably Edmunds’ gotcha epidemiological point), with Counsel demanding that the spread of infection be “broad and predictable” for it to qualify as endemic, when seasonal spikes shown on a graph means it wasn’t. This was rebuffed in a strong response from Prof. Heneghan, emphasising the seasonal pattern of endemic respiratory viruses and the variability of testing data and evidence on the ground.
Carl’s response to being challenged on the “f*ckwit” comment was dignified and professional, indicating it signified a lack of professionalism from the author as well as a lack of willingness to engage in debate, and an assumption of certainty where there was great uncertainty. He further pointed out that the entire lockdown response was driven by modelling and failed to take into account empirical data or the reality on the ground. Counsel scuttled along to that favourite fallback of the lockdown zealots – Long Covid – where Carl educated the Inquiry by telling it there was no greater risk of lingering disease from Covid than from any other seasonal respiratory disease.
At this point, Counsel decided to end the very short proceedings, presumably to shield the carefully constructed narrative to live another day.
It was hard not to notice the stark contrast in the attitude and approach to the two witnesses and it raises further serious questions on the ability of this long and expensive public inquiry to professionally and impartially challenge the decision making that led to lockdowns.
Kieran Saxon is a member of UsForThem.
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“First two phases of HS2 are unachievable, says watchdog”
I know people will tell me its more about the capacity of the network than the 12 minutes it saves on a journey to Manchester (or whatever the number was), but there is a certain inevitability to this failing project. Just a waste of money that could have been spent uprating the services in the North and the South West, but no. I was staggered when Boris said we’d continue on with it.
Loving in rural Somerset, I can conform that the South West is the land that government forgot. Governments of both colours. Labour hate us anyway as we only ever vote Tory or Lib Dem, and the Tories just ignore us.
In the recent Somerset & Frome by election, we received crap from the Lib Dems every day for a fortnight before the election, sometimes more than one lot of crap a day.
From the Tories, NOTHING. You wouldn’t have known there was a by election.
….I saw this last week and just thought Oh?
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-announces-680m-for-new-high-speed-electric-railway-in-turkey
UK backs £680m loan guarantee for new high-speed electric railway in Turkey
It’s already been ‘fact-checked’,
https://fullfact.org/online/uk-turkey-railway-loan/
….which usually means a lot of people are putting it on information platforms and asking questions….
As I’m not a finance person..would I be right in thinking that if the UK underwrites the loan, and it goes tits-up..the UK taxpayer will be left with the bill?
(Not the banks loaning the money?)….and is it just another way of laundering UK taxpayers money?
It’s wonderful how our government uses OUR money to fund ridiculous project after ridiculous project, billions wasted on Track and Trace, PPE, HS2, arms to Ukraine and all the rest. We don’t get a say in this unless you call an election a democratic process, which it isn’t. And they continue to try and find new ways to get OUR money. The following is a list of the taxes that we currently pay I believe, from a post by Steve Gamble:
· Stamp Duty
· Tobacco Tax
· Corporate Income Tax
· Income Tax
· Council Tax
· Unemployment Tax
· Fishing License Tax
· Petrol/Diesel Tax
· Inheritance Tax (tax on top of tax)
· Alcohol Tax
· G.S.T.
· Property Tax
· Purchase Property Tax
· Tax on Title Searches
· Tax on Building Inspections
· Tax on supplements
· Taxes on various food items
· Taxes on Dining out
· Tax on all utilities – Phone, hydro, water, waste disposal
· Service charge taxes
· Social Security Tax
· Vehicle License / Registration Tax
· Vehicle Sales Tax
· Workers Compensation Tax
· And now Carbon Tax
Soon, they will introduce road charging – all the infrastructure is being put in place, look for those cameras beside junctions and along main roads – and increased taxes on fuel. There’ll be taxes on woodburners at some point no doubt. HS2 has been an absolute money pit that has ruined vast swathes of the countryside. For what? For who? Remember that a billion days ago, no-one walked on the earth on two feet; a billion pounds ago was only 13 hours and 12 minutes, at the rate our present government is spending it! (or something like that!)
Ugly, bloated fat cat railway! Utterly useless to the ordinary citizen, so, of cause it will be finished irrelevant of the spiralling costs!
The ordinary citizen just has to shut the f up and pay for it!
Rand Paul announces ‘official criminal referral’, says email shows Fauci Covid testimony ‘absolutely a lie’”
You have to hand it to Sen. Paul. He’s doing some sterling work at uncovering the monstrosity of covid. Is anyone listening though.?
Don’t overstate 1.5°C threat, new IPCC head says”
He won’t last the week…
Still not winding back on the original claim though, is he?
Exactly..
They never admit, they double-down on the lies and wait for the storm to pass.
“Trans men apply for Miss Italy in protest at ‘born female’ rule”
Surely with that number of applicants they could run their own They/Them Italy contest and leave the wimmin alone? Think of all the DEI companies they could get to sponsor it – Budd Lite, Disney, Coutts…
We should not indulge these people. They will never be women and can never be women, however much they want to be women.
Red weather maps fake temperature records
The new Director of the Centres for Disease Control is a very stupid woman. She is also extremely self-regarding.
She is an excellent example of the Dunning-Kruger effect and therefore very dangerous in the position she’s been put in.
Of course Harari is no fan of free speech and all for censorship instead. People like us pose a threat and might just scupper their plans. And he did actually say this as I watched the podcast clip. Flaming lunatic;
”Yuval Harari, Klaus Schwab’s right-hand man has called for so-called “conspiracy theorists” to be banned from the Internet because of their “dangerous” belief that a global clique of elites controls the world, Azernews reports.
Harari condemned the theory that a shadowy elite of billionaires and globalists control the world, he called it “anti-Semitic” and “dangerous.”
During a discussion at the Warwick Economic Summit, Harari boasted that the world’s “elites” would soon be able to use their immense power to avoid global mass extinction, which they themselves would create as part of a depopulation program.”
https://www.azernews.az/region/212843.html
Time someone dosed Davos…
Yeah.. preferably with a nuke!
Nukes, putin could come in handy after all!
It’s pure comedy clown world:
“A man has called for so-called “conspiracy theorists” to be banned from the Internet because of their “dangerous” belief that a global clique of elites controls the world, says man who works for a global elite who claim to have infiltrated parliaments and governments throughout the world and who says we will own nothing and be happy.
Harari’s own deranged speeches exemplify a ‘shadowy elite of billionaires and globalists control[ing] the world’. The man’s rants about ‘hacking’ human beings and abolishing free will give me the same shudder of terror I get watching rants by historic communist leaders and German national socialists. Harari is like a real life ‘Davros from Davos’!
Good morning everyone!
This is priceless…LOL.
The journalist Matt Orfalea has done this little cartoon about the proximal origin paper..using words from their own e-Mails and substacks etc……Short and Brilliant….!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PhAGPQE0H-U
“Let’s take our overdrafts elsewhere”
Sorry, but, am I supposed to know you jack watson and Rodger watson are?
Well off, obviously!
“Don’t overstate 1.5°C threat, new IPCC head says”
Are you listening?, Mr “Global boiling” git head? Sorry Guterres!
“Chef Thomas Straker starts diversity row over his kitchen staff”
Maybe you just have to have the correct credentials and experience to do the job?
So its all come down to
” I’m black so give me the job or else”
Global boiling,scorching,searing,blazing,infernal,blistering, bubbling,rampant death spiral!
Bugger! It’s cold and raining here!
“Trans men apply for Miss Italy in protest at ‘born female’ rule” – About 100 trans men have applied to participate in the Miss Italy beauty pageant”
With 100 applicants they can have their own mentally deranged ambiguous “beauty” pageant!
Gawd, Lub a duck!
“Home Office secretly backs facial recognition technology to curb shoplifting”
Attention all blagards: wear a mask!
This appears to be confirmed as true…so great news….he’s trying to get into Hungary apparently…..
Gonzalo Lira
@GonzaloLira1968
I’m posting this thread just as I’m getting to the border checkpoint. I’m also posting videos on the two channels I have access to, The Roundtable and Gonzalo Lira—Again.
If you don’t hear from me in the next 12 hours—whelp! I’m on my way to a labor camp!
Wish me luck.
Chief Nerd
@TheChiefNerd
New Cedars Sinai Study Finds Heart Attack Deaths Are Up Nearly 30% in People Ages 25 to 44
“A national study from Cedars Sinai hospital shows the deaths related to heart attacks increased across every age group since the spring of 2020 but the group that saw the biggest increase isn’t who you might think…The relative increase in heart attack associated deaths among 25-44 year olds was a staggering 30%…Experts are still working to figure out why young people are so impacted.”
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9839603/
Now what could it be?…..think…No, I’m baffled!!
Hmm!!?
https://finance.ec.europa.eu/news/commission-adopts-european-sustainability-reporting-standards-2023-07-31_en
31.7.2023
The Commission adopted today the European Sustainability Reporting Standards (ESRS) for use by all companies subject to the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD). This marks another step forward in the transition to a sustainable EU economy.
The standards cover the full range of environmental, social, and governance issues, including climate change, biodiversity and human rights. They provide information for investors to understand the sustainability impact of the companies in which they invest. They also take account of discussions with the International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB) and the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) in order to ensure a very high degree of interoperability between EU and global standards and to prevent unnecessary double reporting by companies.
The reporting requirements will be phased in over time for different companies.
Aug 1 (Reuters) – Pfizer on Tuesday said it will launch a cost-cutting program if its COVID-19 vaccine and antiviral treatment keep underperforming expectations in the coming months due to plunging demand.
Pfizer said it anticipates more clarity on the future size of the COVID market later this year as infection rates rise in the autumn and the U.S. switches to a commercial market from government contracts for the vaccine.
Chief Executive Albert Bourla said this fall’s COVID-19 vaccination rates should be a good predictor of what annual rates will look like going forward, “with the only upside if we have a combined vaccine with flu or with RSV, that would increase the vaccination rates.”
If COVID vaccinations are very low this year, the company will scale back its investments for the virus, including combination shots, as part of its cost plan, Bourla said.
Sales of the COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty, which Pfizer shares with German partner BioNTech fell 83% ……Sales of antiviral treatment, Paxlovid, tumbled 98%.
Of course they still made billions, …..but maybe, finally, the people have spoken and really don’t want any more of the poisonous goo?
“About 100 trans men have applied to participate in the Miss Italy beauty pageant after its organiser said the competition was only open to people who were born female, says the Times.”
Er, no, let me fix that for you
About 100 MEN have applied to participate in the Miss Italy beauty pageant after its organiser said the competition was only open to people who were born female, says the Times.