Further evidence has emerged that climate models are useless for the purpose of forecasting future temperature rises. A recent survey using American summer temperatures (June, July, August) over the last 50 years, found that 36 major climate models showed nearly twice the warming rate observed by the surface temperature measurements recorded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). At the high end, a number of models forecast warming nearly three times greater than observed data show (blue bar below).
The research was carried out by Dr. Roy Spencer, the principal research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and the compiler of the UAH monthly satellite temperature record. He says that the importance of his findings should be obvious. “Given that U.S. energy policy depends upon the predictions from these models, their tendency to produce too much warming (and likely also warming-associated climate change) should be factored into energy policy planning,” he said. But he doubted it was being, ”given the climate change exaggerations routinely promoted by environment groups, anti-oil advocates, the media, politicians, and most government agencies”.
The Spencer work follows recent research published by Professor Nicola Scafetta of the University of Naples. He found that almost all the global temperature forecasts produced by models between 1980-2021 were excessive, some extremely so, compared with the accurate satellite record. One of the reasons given as to why there’s no climate emergency in the World Climate Declaration is that climate models are “not remotely plausible as global tools”.
Yet as we have seen in numerous articles in the Daily Sceptic, climate models are ubiquitous and are at the forefront of promoting the climate scares pushing the command-and-control Net Zero agenda. They are at the heart of the pseudoscientific work that tries to ‘attribute’ single extreme weather events to long-term changes in the climate claimed supposedly caused by fossil fuels. In simple terms, computers compare an imaginary climate without human-caused carbon dioxide with the current one full of unknown complexities, and then the modellers announce they’ve ‘proved’ the ‘climate emergency’ hypothesis. Since the outputs of these models are unfalsifiable – how can you prove that a wholly imaginary scenario is ‘false’? – the notions are no more than worthless opinions.
The results of Spencer’s work will hardly come as a great surprise, but the conclusions are almost certainly more damaging to the climate catastrophisers’ case than the figures suggest. Spencer uses NOAA surface temperatures and, as we have seen, these are subject to ‘corruption’ from a number of causes in recent years. As Spencer notes, the NOAA figure could be an over-estimate “if increasing urban heat island effects have spuriously influenced trends over the last 50 years, and I have not made any adjustments for that”.
Earlier this year, the U.S. meteorologist Anthony Watts published his latest survey of NOAA’s nationwide weather stations. Describing the temperature record as “fatally flawed”, Watts found about 96% of US temperature stations failed to meet what NOAA itself considered to be acceptable and uncorrupted placement. Watts defined ‘corruption’ as caused by the localised effects of urbanisation, producing heat bias because of a close proximity to asphalt, machinery and other heat-producing, heat-trapping, or heat-accentuating objects. According to Watts, data that had not been corrupted by faulty placement showed a rate of warming in the U.S. “reduced by almost a half compared to all stations”.
There is further substantial evidence that NOAA’s U.S. surface temperature figures are too high. In 2005, it started compiling data from a select group of 114 stations across the country that had been specifically sited away from urban development. Called the U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN), it was intended to aim for “superior accuracy and continuity in places that land use will not likely impact during the next five decades”.
The graph above shows the rarely referenced record up to last month. It shows oscillating temperature changes, but very little evidence to indicate a warming trend over the last 17 years.
Considering what is known about the ‘corruption’ of the NOAA’s main temperature dataset, it would be reasonable to significantly reduce the blue NOAA observational bar in Spencer’s graph. This of course provides further confirmation that the temperatures forecasts of most climate models have long lost any connection with reality.
Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor.
To join in with the discussion please make a donation to The Daily Sceptic.
Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.
Anything bozo can ditch today he can unditch tomorrow.
It will be interesting to see whether some pubs display ‘vaccine passport required’ signs while others say the opposite and see who gets the most custom.
Some might remember that when smoking was being discouraged in restaurants places like Macdonalds and motorway service restaurants set aside smaller and smaller areas for smoking yet they were always the most crowded parts of the room.
Sadly the population has become so terified after a year a relentless propaganda that I reckon most people would choose to drink in a pub that required vaccine passports. If the sceme is voluntary and enough people visit pubs that are passport free then it becomes a massive experiment, and if there’s no difference in the number of “cases” that can be traced to passport free pubs compared with those that require a passport then passports will be shown to be a waste of time.
Why the government still wants to introduce passports for theaters, festivals etc. is incomprehensible. Are people sat closer together in a theater than a busy pub? There are virtually no spikes in transmission that can be linked to outdoor mixing, so why are festivals thought to be a risk?
It makes no sense. However I think we’d we hard to find any lucid thought process in any government minister.
It makes perfect sense. Look at the red column and ask yourself who would be most likely to visit those places?
It’s designed to coerce young people in to taking the vaccine.
It means that there will be a division in society. That means families too. Any government who condones this needs to look at themselves in the mirror. Have no lessons been learned from Hitler, PolPot or Stalin. The country also needs to look at itself if it is happy to be part of recreating the terrible situations in communist Europe. I thought we had moved on from allowing dictatorships. I thought we had left the dictatorial EU.
They can roll it out as quickly or as slowly as they like, but it’s coming. It’s part of a Central Bank Digital Currency and ID2020 project. Boris has very little say in it other than some minor administrative details.
Either storm the Bastille, go off grid on an island or be part of a massive genetic experiment. Either way, we’re not going back to normal and all of this has been engineered from the beginning.
Yeah, pretty much sounds like that. Like i keep saying: we’ve been domesticized.
If Boris had any live of country he would have stood strong and supported Donald Trump. Together the two greatest democracies could have bought these globalists down. But unfortunately Boris is part of a selfish, greedy, globalist family who also believe in eugenics. In our ignorant trust we have voted for our own demise as a nation.
It is our duty to boycott the businesses of those who threaten our liberties. Let us now use the window of opportunity, no matter how small to make our voices heard and ensure we make every effort to stop the mission creep, yellow star policies and hope that more businesses, MPs and others with influence can be turned around. On the back of Handjob being called to the Courts on Tuesday over the non opening of hospitality, any ‘good’ news should be widely broadcast and used to our advantage.
As a regualr concert goer I am currently writing to all the artists that I would normally watch to explain why I won’t be attending again, and unless they make a stand on this I won’t buy any of their music either.
The artists will not make a stand. They are too complicit. Many, not all, are very socialist/communist minded. We need to simply boycott by never buying their music, going to their concerts or watching them on stage or film.
it worked very well in Hollywood. The film industry has lost $billions, many artists are leaving California because they cannot afford to live there anymore. Lots of musicians have also noticed their income has plummeted. The silent treatment works very well. My Pillow on the other hand has gone ‘viral’. Hid products are now only on line, as he has taken everything out of the stores who tried to blackmail him. Those stores are suffering too.
Isn’t Ian Brown vehemently opposed to this nonsense?
The vaccinated want to see some advantage to their jab, having a card or app and maybe getting into some pub or elsewhere will make them feel vindicated, the segregation will be ignored
Their advantage is best summed up by a line from Treasure Island.
‘Thems that die will be the lucky ones’.
For others it will be the long drawn out suffering of the Great Reset.
If the vaccinated need to feel vindicated then that is an issue for them. The rest of us are happy for them & if they believe the vaccine will ‘save’ them and ‘protect’ them then they should have no problem with those who decline to be vaccinated. Isn’t their virtual signalling mask wearing compliance enough vindication for them?
l wonder how many patients with something called vax-syndrome will crop up sooner or later, an app or getting somewhere else would be cold comfort, and this is not gloating, l wish them well, but what if their future is sealed?
Like Gulf War syndrome? (Must look that up….)
Still gotta wear that mask on entry huh? I guess that’s me out then lol.
Me too!
Do not wear one. Never have and never will. Once I got over the first days of being ‘eyeballed’ by the virtue signallers and I gained confidence in my ‘rebellion’, it was amazing how many people just ignored my non-mask wearing. Truly liberating.
I agree. I have never worn a mask and never will. It’s demoralising. I also noticed that most shop assistants seem happy to talk to me and actually look relieved to have a conversation. Many say that their job has become miserable and very difficult since wearing masks because their lips are dry and sore at the end of the day and everyone treats them as though they are a nonentity.
We have become a country known for ‘mass testing’. I would like to see the PCR test used for testing for bacteria and /or viruses etc on masks. My suggestion is that in every town with a population of say 20000 plus, a test unit should be set up and all those grubby unhygenic mask wearers should hand in the mask to have it swabbed. The mask can be returned to them to put back on, and then the swabs can be sent away and the results returned to the wearers. I suspect that the level of bacteria, virus, fecal matter etc on the masks will send the virtue signallers running to bin the masks. But I live in a fantasy world I think.
Just tell them you’re exempt. Get one of the damned lanyards if it helps. The more who do it the less they can argue. I’ve never been challenged with the lanyard and in the summer in our local I just told the bar staff once and it was never mentioned again even without the lanyard.
I certainly won’t be going to any event or venue where I’m going to have to tolerate seeing people in face nappies for a number of hours. I don’t wear a mask but going to the supermarket is bad enough but at least I can be in and out very quickly.
Ditched? They’re not ditched. Still a long list of places they’ll be required. You’re either a free non-discriminatory society or you’re not; there’s no halfway house on this. Gove is in the Telegraph now asking for opinions. Why? Were all the many thousands of negative submissions to the official consultation not good enough for you to read? You think people can be bought off with a few crumbs and be grateful? No way. Methinks SPI-B dropped the ball on this one.
I think what Gove is doing re asking for “opinions” is trying to treat this exercise as a separate exercise from the “consultation on vaccine certification”, in the hope that all those who contributed to that are either totally WEARY of this now and won’t bother or they will think that their original response counts as a response to this. That will, they likely hope, add up to a much lower number of responses, and less negative responses [particularly now that pubs and restaurants are taken out of the scheme – for now] and they will then be able to use that in support of bringing in the scheme with the justification “we didn’t get much in the way of response when we asked for ‘opinions’ “.
He jumped the gun. The IT guys said they need more time. So he’s trying to roll back what he couldn’t wait to say this week.
Means nothing. Resist. And continue to let him know that we are onto their games. There will be a price to pay
Looks like a massive opportunity to host some illegal ’90s style raves in empty fields and warehouses!
Definitely although sadly I feel I I’m now too old to be accepted an any illegal event. Husband used to organise illegal raves and but has fallen out with many of the old party crowd because their all pro vaccine.
Florida is explicitly banning vaccine passports from the state. I understand this would prevent private venues from using them also? They do, after all, run contrary to international treaties against coercive medicine, put together after the Nuremberg trials.
Oh really? Can I claim asylum in Florida?
I’ve thought of this, too. Might buy a dinghy
Emailed my mp this morning after he told me a few weeks ago there was no plan for vaccine passports. They’re treating us like idiots
Sorry to say, but your mp is ‘furloughed’ on full pay plus the £10K 30 pieces of silver payment and therefore has no knowledge of any ‘plan’ for vaccine passports or ‘plans’ for anything else. This Government does not have a plan. It rules by opinion poll and instructions from the Covid puppet masters, Tony War Criminal B(liar) and Billy Boy Gates. With that in mind neither the Ministers or furloughed MPs will know what they will be repeating to the brainwashed public until they receive the script.
This government is the absolute pits! Remember how Camerloon used to be called FlopFlopDave?
As I wrote in an e-Mail to my MP, I see this idea of passports in a similar vein to how I viewed the introduction of masks. It is being done to make the terrified hoards feel safe about getting back to normal again.
Handjob admitted this about masks. It was the British Retail consortium who wanted masks to be introduced, so a massive u-turn was made. Remember in March /April 2020 every one of the medical, scientific and Department of Health bigwigs were saying that masks were unnecessary and could even be dangerous? There were never any health and safety checks done on wearing masks all day- I know, because my MP was asking for them on my behalf.
Yesterday, OH and I listened to the Delingpole podcast featuring Dr Mike Yeadon. OH has been wavering about the jab because he is desperate to get back to travelling, the theatre, football and dining out again. After listening to Dr Yeadon, whose advice was to wait and see what happens before having the jab and certainly don’t have it if you are not at risk, OH has returned to his default answer. “I MAY have the jab once the human trials are over”
Vaccine passports are coming, even if it’s in paper form to begin with. Unless we stop this now, once it is a done deal we’re too late.
If I exclude the people I have personally met like us, which numbers are growing but not fast enough, we need to stop it now before the young people get vaccinated, as apart from my husband and myself, every one I personally know who have been offered the needle have all, every last one of my neighbours and family my age, have jumped in to the empty pool and never bothered to check if there was water in it and rolled up their sleeves, willingly and gleefully for ‘their jab’.
I have mentioned the dog situation before, here’s a reminder what happens and has been happening to anyone with dogs that do not get vaccinated yearly.
1: Of my friends and family with dogs, I am the only one who does NOT get her dogs vaccinated every year. They have zero sympathy for my dogs when I state we can’t go to a new training class.
2: Dogs unvaccinated are not allowed to most training, dog walking, kennels.
3: Unvaccinated dogs are classed in the public eye as being dangerous to the vaccinated dogs, I have queried that numerous times and never get a proper reply.
4: Not one person I know who get their dog jabbed every year understands nor do they care that 3 of the diseases the dogs are vaccinated for are probably life long. Nor do they care that the vaccine for lepto does not last 12 months, or that it’s caused by bacteria and can be treated with antibiotics if caught early enough. They also don’t know nor care that there is so many types of lepto and the dogs are vaccinated for only four.
5: When their dog dies young with cancer, has terrible skin conditions and start having seizures, the vaccines are never, ever to blame.
If I’m being pessimistic in regards to the roll out of vaccine passports it’s because I have been dealing with these reactions for many years now.
On a more positive note, I have now met a handful of skeptics that are dog owners and each and every one of them, do not vaccinate their dogs either and a bonus, I met through the stand in the park a lovely lady who runs her own dog walking business and does not require vaccinated dogs.
I said this exact thing on a group, on facebook. We are dogs to them (not that there’s anything wrong with dogs as I have 2 lovely whippets). Like you, I don’t vaccinate my dogs anymore after their puppy jabs and know that it means they cannot get access to everything like their vaccinated counterparts. Will be the same now for us humans. So depressing!
Me too…hands up to having never vaccinated my dog, or dewormed or deflead (I use diatomaceous earth and MSM (methylsulfonylmethane not main stream media!) respectively. He is also intact….needs his testosterone for his heart health etc. He is the healthiest dog on the block. When people bemoan the cost of veterinary services I have to admit I wouldn’t know (under my breath!) What’s good enough for my dog’s body to deal with applies to me too.
“3: Unvaccinated dogs are classed in the public eye as being dangerous to the vaccinated dogs, I have queried that numerous times and never get a proper reply.”
Which suggests they don’t think the vaccines actually work, eh?
I was very interested in your comments as I have had dogs since 1971. (Cairn terriers)
Some years ago I went to a lecture by a South African lady on vaccines for children in the local Friends Meeting House. I was staggered by what she said, one point in question was that they had found that most cot deaths occured within a short time of a child receiving an innoculation.I must have been a sceptic for a long time as my daughter who is now 56 never received all the vaccinations going when she was a baby.
As it happened I queried the question on vaccination of dogs and was not surprised to hear that the lecturer considered that vets were actually killing dogs in their enthusiasm
to medicate. This has stayed with me and after the first vaccination I have left things alone.
I did query with one vet why this was necessary and her answer was that they didn’t know how long the vaccine lasted. A second country vet said they had had the discussion on this and felt every three years was sufficient.. Probably hedging his bets.
My grandfather had smallpox as a boy of 20, He was hospitalised and expected to die but recovered and had a wonderful life in New Zealand and then back in England. He didn’t have a vaccine and told me to never ever compromise with food. Always buy the best.Get fresh air, work hard and get some sleep. He lived to be a great age.
Always question everything, we are being conned every single day by these corrupt people in power.
We MUST stop calling them Covid/Vaccine passports, they are ID, the rest was just the narrow window to get us here. They are ID, that Blair wanted many years ago and has now found a possible way to get there. Maybe they will get takers as those who have been jabbed and now know it does nothing much, want some justification for their jab.
As the no smoking ban came in, pubs starting closing down. The Government gets involved with our lives and the consequences are never good for the ordinary citizen. I suspect any business that starts looking to apartheid will suffer. We are a Democracy. Boris and his government are highly dangerous technocrats.
We need to boycott any business who wants to help harvest our private data….because that is what they are doing .
How long do you think it’ll take somebody to create a false “passport”? I’ll be getting one.
Just like when you had to sign in or use a QR code, I used a false name and number, who’s going to check.
The paper cards will be easy to mimic.
The apps with an encrypted link to a national jab database…not so much.
That said, the utter failure of T&T is a sign they will bungle a central database.
Let’s pray they use bottom dollar Third World programmers, like Boeing did on the 737 MAX.
The 737Max wasn’t doomed by software programmers, eastern or western. It was doomed by fixing an engine too big for the aircraft. The only way it could be fitted with sufficient ground clearance was to move it forward and upwards. This basically makes the aircraft dynamically unstable, as the engine cowling acts as an extra wing area at high angles of attack. This extra lift increases the angle of attack – a positive feedback loop. Dynamic instability is fine in military fighter aircraft where the advantages of dynamic instability (high maneuverability) outweigh the complexity of the software/hardware necessary to handle it, but not so good for civilian aircraft with unwitting passengers. The Boeing 737Max was supposed to have two independent angle of attack detectors to give some redundancy to the 737 Max aerodynamic system necessary to help the pilot, but Boeing in their wisdom made the 2nd one an option. They also claimed the 737 Max was no different in behaviour to other 737s to avoid retraining costs deterring propective purchasers.
All this talk of passports being mandatory to be able to live life etc reminds me of a scheme that my employer tried to introduce to it’s 30,000 employees three years ago.
The company had been appraoched by a private firm, offering to administer and monitor the licences of employees authorised to drive any of the thousands of velicles we have. Those employees are bound by rules which include no speeding (black boxes and limiters fitted) and prohibit the use of even hands free devices to receive calls on the move.
However, the company decided to extend that to every employee driving their own vehicles, by demanding that all employees provide their driving licence details to this unknown company, and authorise them to access our DVLA records every six months to search for endorsements, and prosecutions. Faiure to sign would result in us having to provide explanations to our line managers as to why we were unwilling to comply, leaving it open as to what would happen next.
The backlash from staff was so great that those discussions never happened. Nor was the scheme ever spoken of again.
I hope, when it comes down to it, that similar will happen. A number will comply because all they can see is what they can get out of it, failing to see the bigger pictures, but a large number will say screw you, we’re not complying.
People power!… Folk know when something is wrong (but some are too scared to admit it!)
‘Nightclubs already police entry’. No Gove, it’s not the same thing. A nightclub might ask for proof of age and name and address for licensing purposes. They don’t ask for confidential medical information.
Let’s just ‘bar’ the policiticans and their crony mates from society. The world would be a better place.
So how exactly are cinemas, theatres (to a lesser extent) and nightclubs going to operate when their target audiences are too young to have even been offered a ‘vaccine’?
Cinema owners last week said they didn’t want this and would push back against.
How many old vulnerable people are found in night clubs?
So sharing the train ride to the theatre is okay, but on arrival at the theatre, apartheid takes place.
Endless bullshit nonsense.
Remember Apartheid?
How is this different? Jobs for whites, no jobs for blacks, segregated football stadiums, segregated shopping areas, segregated schools, buses segregated, taxis for blacks, taxis for whites. What happened to the belief that that system was evil? Do they no longer believe that ideal to be so? Why are they trying to bring back a similar society? Replace the word Blacks with Unvaxed. And this in the current WOKEWORLD. Ironic?
It is no different. I have written to a number of Gov departments, ministers and my own furloughed MP objecting to the Yellow Star Health Apartheid Scheme. I am Trade Marking the phrase and selling franchised use of it on stickers, badges, posters etc so that I too can rip off the great British public during this plandemic.
Can’t believe this is the same man who said ‘If I am ever asked, on the streets of London, or in any other venue, public or private, to produce my ID card as evidence that I am who I say I am, when I have done nothing wrong and when I am simply ambling along and breathing God’s fresh air like any other freeborn Englishman, then I will take that card out of my wallet and physically eat it”
If you look at the way the Government has reacted to Covid it is difficult to trust their motives in any shape or form.
My guess was from the start (continually reinforced by recent statements) is that their underhand and deceitful strategy is to keep delaying the decision on vaccine passports. The public will then weary and be so uncomfortable waiting for the final decision that more and more (and younger and younger) people who are less and less likely to need the vaccine are implicitly coerced into making the decision based purely on convenience. This is completely unethical from a medical point of view and the only way to prevent such an abuse of medical treatment would have been by the immediate outlawing of any form of vaccination certification.
The medical professional bodies that regulate healthcare should also hang their heads in shame (for such supervised neglect of these ethical issues) in not speaking out.
We can’t have the masses unable to use public transport to get into work to service the needs of the Keyboard W(not)FH cult. So its best just to ban people who won’t comply from venues at are likely to be ‘social’. Yellow Star Health Apartheid.
Just read that the inept BoJo & Handjob have apparently spent £.1.3 billion of OUR money buying 394 Million rapid flow tests which they are going to post to our homes to enable us to self test twice a week. We cannot have the ‘cases’ dropping away so if we all comply and test the lockdown will never end. I will be redirecting my ‘free’ tests to No 10 Downing for Bojo to use and the next ones to Handjob c/o the Dept of “Covid” formerly “health”. No need to buy a stamp. Redirected mail can be just noted with the new addressee name & location and posted in your nearest post box. Please ensure you spray well with anti viral solution before posting.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/04/04/public-will-urged-take-covid-test-twice-week-lockdown-rules/
I am a lifelong Tory, from a Conservative family. I assumed I was voting in a Conservative government, not an increasingly authoritarian dictatorship that has decimated the freedom our forefathers paid for so dearly with their lives, all for a ‘virus’ that 99% survive.
To anyone with half a brain, it is obvious that this whole ‘plandemic’ is the entrance to Agenda 20/30, and the vaccine passport is literally a passport to a social credit system. Boris has sold us out to the World Economic Forum, ‘Great Reset’. Unfortunately, the majority of the public have been terrified by the relentless government propaganda, and are happily ensconced in Stockholm Syndrome, oblivious to the Agenda that is behind it.
My only hope is that a new Party will emerge from this mess, one that will honour human rights and true democracy, that is, if we ever have another election, at the rate we are speeding to a One World Government.