• Login
  • Register
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Podcasts
  • Newsletter
  • Premium
  • Donate
  • Log In
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result

Three Vaccine Doses Increase Infection Risk by Up to 27%, Study Finds

by Will Jones
4 October 2022 7:19 PM

Three doses of the Moderna Covid vaccine increase your risk of Omicron infection by up to 27%, a study has found.

The pre-print study (not yet peer-reviewed) was funded by Moderna itself and partly designed by employees of Moderna as well as involving researchers from Kaiser Permanente in Southern California. The study’s reporting of poor outcomes for the original vaccine may be understood in the context of Moderna now having a ‘bivalent vaccine’ which targets Omicron.

The study used a test-negative case-control design to evaluate the Moderna Covid vaccine’s effectiveness against infection and hospitalisation with Omicron subvariants. It included 30,809 test-positive and 92,427 test-negative individuals aged over 18 years tested during the first half of 2022. Results were adjusted for potential confounders such as age, sex and comorbidities.

The study found negative effectiveness (i.e., where the vaccinated have a higher infection rate than the unvaccinated) for three doses against all Omicron subvariants (BA.2, BA.2.12.1, BA.4 and BA.5) except BA.1, where the waning was slower.

Vaccine effectiveness against infection was negative within five months (150 days) at around minus-25%, meaning there were 25% more infections in the vaccinated than in the unvaccinated. The results are shown below and I’ve marked the five-month figures in red. The lowest figure was for BA.2.12.1 at nearly minus-27%.

A second recent study from Sweden (also in pre-print) also showed negative vaccine effectiveness against Omicron, this time for two doses and after just 15 weeks, with the trend moving deep into negative territory (see below). The study looked at all Swedish data from December 27th 2020 to January 31st 2022, meaning for Omicron it only covered BA.1.

The Sweden study also showed vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation and death heading into negative territory after about a year (see below; hospitalisation top, death bottom) – though this chart makes use of a spline curve, which the authors note may differ from the other data at later time points as it “assumes a linear association in the tails” and also due to the low number of data points.

One oddity about the Sweden study is that for pre-Omicron it claims to show a high and non-waning vaccine effectiveness against infection, as shown below.

This implies that the vaccine effectiveness remained over 90% for nearly a year. This is very strange, as a study from Sweden using the same data but published in October 2021 found a sharp decline into negative territory by eight months.

Why does the new Sweden study, using the same population data, find such a different trend of vaccine effectiveness pre-Omicron? On the face of it it makes no sense. Dr. Clare Craig commented to me that it appears (in Table s8) the authors used as a reference only one value for the unvaccinated, which had huge numbers of patients in it, suggesting they are using winter Covid in an unvaccinated population as their baseline rather than the unvaccinated levels at a similar point in time. She notes that rather than comparing with the unvaccinated, if you compare the figures for the periods after vaccination with each other then the test positivity goes from 0.01% up to 0.8% as time passes, indicating a waning vaccine, in contrast to the non-waning vaccine presented in the chart.

It’s worth noting that a recent study from Oxford University found a similar negative vaccine effectiveness pre-Omicron in England data.

Why the picture of the vaccines we are gaining from studies isn’t always consistent is not really clear. However, what is clear is that a number of studies are now showing negative effectiveness, including studies from the manufacturers and pharmaceutical companies themselves. This is worrying as it raises questions of what may be causing it (assuming it is a real phenomenon and not an artefact of some kind). Is it due to immune imprinting (‘original antigenic sin’) impeding the response to later variants, or a more general inhibition of the immune system, or something else? Whatever it is, it is highly disturbing to think that the vaccines may increase susceptibility to infection, and even more disturbing to think that the official solution put forward to address this problem is an endless series of further vaccine doses.

Tags: Big PharmaCOVID-19ModernaSwedenVaccineVaccine efficacy

Donate

We depend on your donations to keep this site going. Please give what you can.

Donate Today

Comment on this Article

You’ll need to set up an account to comment if you don’t already have one. We ask for a minimum donation of £5 if you'd like to make a comment or post in our Forums.

Sign Up
Previous Post

Forecasters are Predicting a Cold Winter in Europe

Next Post

Nick Dixon, Toby Young and Will Jones Talk About YouTube Cancelling Russell Brand, Kanye West Being ‘Racist’ and Whether Toby is Tory Scum

Subscribe
Login
Notify of
Please log in to comment

To join in with the discussion please make a donation to The Daily Sceptic.

Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.

19 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

NEWSLETTER

View today’s newsletter

To receive our latest news in the form of a daily email, enter your details here:

DONATE

PODCAST

Episode 39 of the Sceptic: Michael Reiners on Multiculturalism vs Free Speech, Charlotte Gill on Commie Academy and Tim Samuels on ‘White Men Can’t Work’

by Richard Eldred
6 June 2025
3

LISTED ARTICLES

  • Most Read
  • Most Commented
  • Editor’s Picks

News Round-Up

11 June 2025
by Will Jones

Why Conspiracy Theories are Always Wrong, Even When There is a Conspiracy

11 June 2025
by Colin Meade

The Rise and Rise of King Coal

11 June 2025
by Tilak Doshi

Is Britain Really the Most Miserable Country in the World?

11 June 2025
by Noah Carl

Anti-Migrant Riots Erupt in Northern Ireland After “Romanian Teenagers” Charged With Sexual Assault

10 June 2025
by Will Jones

News Round-Up

27

Why Conspiracy Theories are Always Wrong, Even When There is a Conspiracy

21

The Rise and Rise of King Coal

14

Sadiq Khan Knighted by King as Londoners Fume He’s Being “Rewarded for Failure”

35

Half of London’s Council Houses Occupied by People Born Overseas

11

On the Mostly Peaceful Los Angeles Riots

11 June 2025
by Eugyppius

Why Conspiracy Theories are Always Wrong, Even When There is a Conspiracy

11 June 2025
by Colin Meade

Is Britain Really the Most Miserable Country in the World?

11 June 2025
by Noah Carl

The Rise and Rise of King Coal

11 June 2025
by Tilak Doshi

Who Will Watch the Healthcare Watchdogs?

10 June 2025
by Ramesh Thakur

POSTS BY DATE

October 2022
M T W T F S S
 12
3456789
10111213141516
17181920212223
24252627282930
31  
« Sep   Nov »

SOCIAL LINKS

Free Speech Union

NEWSLETTER

View today’s newsletter

To receive our latest news in the form of a daily email, enter your details here:

POSTS BY DATE

October 2022
M T W T F S S
 12
3456789
10111213141516
17181920212223
24252627282930
31  
« Sep   Nov »

DONATE

LISTED ARTICLES

  • Most Read
  • Most Commented
  • Editor’s Picks

News Round-Up

11 June 2025
by Will Jones

Why Conspiracy Theories are Always Wrong, Even When There is a Conspiracy

11 June 2025
by Colin Meade

The Rise and Rise of King Coal

11 June 2025
by Tilak Doshi

Is Britain Really the Most Miserable Country in the World?

11 June 2025
by Noah Carl

Anti-Migrant Riots Erupt in Northern Ireland After “Romanian Teenagers” Charged With Sexual Assault

10 June 2025
by Will Jones

News Round-Up

27

Why Conspiracy Theories are Always Wrong, Even When There is a Conspiracy

21

The Rise and Rise of King Coal

14

Sadiq Khan Knighted by King as Londoners Fume He’s Being “Rewarded for Failure”

35

Half of London’s Council Houses Occupied by People Born Overseas

11

On the Mostly Peaceful Los Angeles Riots

11 June 2025
by Eugyppius

Why Conspiracy Theories are Always Wrong, Even When There is a Conspiracy

11 June 2025
by Colin Meade

Is Britain Really the Most Miserable Country in the World?

11 June 2025
by Noah Carl

The Rise and Rise of King Coal

11 June 2025
by Tilak Doshi

Who Will Watch the Healthcare Watchdogs?

10 June 2025
by Ramesh Thakur

SOCIAL LINKS

Free Speech Union
  • Home
  • About us
  • Donate
  • Privacy Policy

Facebook

  • X

Instagram

RSS

Subscribe to our newsletter

© Skeptics Ltd.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password? Sign Up

Create New Account!

Fill the forms below to register

All fields are required. Log In

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Podcasts
  • Newsletter
  • Premium
  • Donate
  • Log In

© Skeptics Ltd.

wpDiscuz
You are going to send email to

Move Comment