Already the official forecasts of temperatures reaching over 40°C have started to drop. The forecasts are the work of super computers and climate models, and their work is done. Population scared and headlines of imminent climate Thermageddon written. But let us now return to Planet Reality. The temperature might top 40°C somewhere this Monday or Tuesday. No doubt some thermometer blasted by jet exhaust, or conveniently sited in an urban setting with lots of reflecting glass and stone, can be found to produce the magic number. But, as ever, the response is – so what? A hot day is a product of meteorological events. There is not one paper in the science world that has conclusively linked single weather events to long-term climate change.
Climate change is like capitalism. It is the aggregation of countless events and transactions. You can pick one single capital transaction and argue capitalism is doomed or evil. You can pick one heatwave and argue, as London mayor Sadiq Khan did, that it is a “very serious consequence of climate change”. But you don’t have science on your side – it is mere personal political opinion.
Any serious scientific discussion of climate change has to focus on long-term trends. The last significant heatwave scare in the U.K. was in July 2019, when an alleged record of 38.7°C was claimed in the middle of the City of Cambridge. The record is constantly publicised, although some doubts remain about its validity. Less well reported is the fact that the 9.17°C average temperature in the 2010 decade in the U.K. was colder than the previous 10 years at 9.31°C. And as we have seen in numerous articles in the Daily Sceptic, this is just one indication that global warming has been running out of steam for over 20 years.
In fact, the average temperature in England for the month of July 2019 at 17.5°C was comparable to the 17.2°C in both 1900 and 1910, and actually colder than the 17.6°C of 1911 and 17.7°C of 1921.
Looking in detail at the average maximum temperature in July, it is difficult to discern a long-term march towards Thermageddon. Since the ending of the ‘mini ice age’ around the beginning of the 19th century, temperatures have probably risen about 1°C. We must say ‘probably’ these days, because the uncertainties of surface global measurements are becoming all too obvious. Given the generally helpful 1°C rise, it would be expected that average maximum temperatures would rise by a similar amount, and over 130 years this is what appears to have happened. But the record also shows that slightly higher maximums started to be seen during a period of global cooling in the mid 1970s. That noted, similar highs, as we have seen, were recorded in the early part of the century. Remove about a dozen of the high outliers spread over the entire period, and the record becomes much more consistent.
Now let’s take a look at the days of sunshine recorded in July. This is relevant since the sun is generally at its hottest when it is unobscured by clouds. There have been a few more hours of sunshine of late, but the record going back to the 1920s shows that the current amounts we see were not uncommon at that time. And again we can see that a trend towards slightly higher amounts started in the late 1960s, when the Earth was cooling slightly and carbon dioxide levels were lower. If the current heatwave is caused by climate change, how do we explain the glorious summer of 1976?
On Sunday, Toby reported on a recent survey in the Lancet Planetary Health which noted that between 2000 and 2019 there were an average of 65,000 excess deaths every year in England and Wales associated with cold, but fewer than 800 a year associated with heat. In other words, he noted, 80 times more annual deaths were associated with cold than heat. He also noted that these excess heat deaths were blamed on ‘climate change’ in general, but nothing was said about the likelihood of the 65,000 figure increasing next winter as a result of rising energy bills – a consequence, in large part, of the fanatical push for Net Zero.
Weaponising weather is now the main armament in the fight to promote the command-and-control Net Zero project. It is highly emotional, has a superficial ‘ring of truth’ about it, and seems to speak to a deep need within the human psyche to take seriously warnings of impending doom. Whatever happens in the near future, come rain or shine, the climate alarmists will be there to remind us we are all going to hell in a handcart.
Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor
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The vicar at church made light of the situation yesterday, basically saying, gosh it’s like we have never had warm weather before. The congregation where all in general agreement. I am one of the ‘younger’ ones however having only recently started my 5th decade on this earth. Perhaps the younger folk are more easily swayed?
The difference seems to be people of my generation and older appear to accept that stuff happens and you get on with your life. Maybe it was our contact with the stoicism of the WW2 generation who faced war with the Nazi’s and 15 years of grinding austerity afterwards.
Younger generations seem to assume that every situation can be managed if only the Government intervene in some way, and ‘does something’.
One of my arguments related to the 1.5c ‘tipping point’ of the climate hysterics is, half the world is already 1.5c warmer than the UK. Some places are 15-20c warmer on average. Singapore for example, has no problems in staying green and providing enough food for itself. So why are we going to turn into some famine wracked desert when in 30 years time Edinburgh is as warm as Manchester is today.
Surprisingly, perhaps, no one has offered an answer.
Older people have more experience of things so can more readily make comparisons. I recall as a child in the 1950s, going with my parents to a standpipe to fetch water in buckets during hot Summers when there were water shortages.
Then there was that scorching, long, hot Summer of 1976 and drought, followed by torrential rain and floods.
The younger generations have been brainwashed to believe every event is novel (like CoV 2), and ‘unprecedented’ (a frequently misused/abused word) and a crisis requiring Government intervention.
Younger generations seem to assume that every situation can be managed if only the Government intervene in some way, and ‘does something’.
Isn’t that called socialism?
So-called younger folk are generally more easily swayed because they have less experience with humanity’s fundamental dishonesty. A large part of their experience will also be being taught about other people’s experiences at school and – to a lesser degree – at university. I know at least one case of a German teacher attending Friday demonstrations against climate change with his whole class. If these pupils believe in dangerous climate change, it’s not difficut to imagine where they got that from.
There are currently people walking around with asymptomatic pale skin not knowing the potential dangers awaiting them in the future. Long Sun Tan is no joking matter.
We may as well start a tanned lives matter movement and allow people to identify as coloured and ethnic minorities based on how dark they’ve tanned.
FFS!! Can people stop going on and on and on, ad infinitum about bloody Gary Lineker!
“Long Sun Tan is no joking matter.”
Never heard of him / her / they. Who is he?
A notorious Chinese peddler of counterfeit N95 masks.
Or ze?
Sir Nigel Farage could identify as a red Indian at the moment!
Live from the Agdiruan: Met office claims temperatures exceeded 37C in parts of England, IOW, >40C quietly shelved for Monday.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62201793
”Responding to claims the UK has seen worse heat – such as during the prolonged heatwave in 1976 – BBC Weather’s Simon King said the “dangerously high” expected temperatures were up to 10C above the extended heatwave and severe drought experienced then.”
“Now remember, this is happening when average world temperatures have only risen just over 1C beyond levels seen before many parts of the world became industrialised.
One degree doesn’t sound much, does it? But we’re living in the hottest period for 125,000 years, according to the UN’s climate science body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
We know what’s behind this – the greenhouse gas emissions caused by our burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas, which trap heat in our atmosphere. They have helped push the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to the highest levels seen for 2 million years, according to the IPCC.”
But we’re living in the hottest period for 125,000 years,
This is untrue. Both during Roman times and in the middle ages, temperatures were higher.
I’m not arguing, but that is what the beeb is saying over and over again today. Most of the hottest places are airports. Brize Norton and Luton runways have melted, but not, as far as I am aware, any of the major roads.
Some of us have been around long enough to remember what it was like in 1976. We might also remember how reliant we were on coal at that time, for power generation. There were actually deep collieries in those days! (sarcasm intended). In any case, short term events are not necessarily evidence of unusual climate variation – which is normal, on the whole.
I was a student in 1976 and I remember it quite well.
Well you’ve lost me.
This is what the bbc is saying
a lot of people still trust the bbc to tell “the truth”
therefore there are a lot of people who will believe that these few days are a foretaste of what is going to happen in the next 20,30 50 years.
Ok.
Hot weather is evidence of climate change.
Cold weather is not evidence of no climate change.
Got it?
I am as yet undecided about chemtrails, but the regular criss-cross pattern of trails above us does give me cause for suspicion.
Some people suggest geoengineering – perhaps to reduce global temperatures, but here is a thought. What if the chemicals act like greenhouse gases? What if those pushing the global warming agenda realise that they are losing the science? Maybe they would seek to ‘correct’ the earth’s behaviour to match their models?
The sky has looked weird most mornings over the past few months. The last 3 mornings, it’s been ‘murky’ quite dark and looked as if it was going to be thunderous and ready for a good downpour – then it suddenly ‘parts’ and the sun rays come through.
It has been a tad warm for a change but it’s Summer, isn’t it?
Did Mr. Khan ever read the story about the significant drop in mortality that occurred in Nepal when they had a particularly mild Winter, I wonder?
The WEF isn’t going to stop promoting the Climate Change scaremongering.
They have another justification now: it’s to save “democracy” ……. the kind of “democracy” where the unelected, unaccountable WEF tells elected politicians what to do.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/07/green-energy-transition-democracy-economy/
I would really like Matthias Desmet’s take on the reaction the public has to this heat-fear as pumped out by the MSM?
is the general public being further conditioned by continued new ‘catastrophes’? Does that work to create a compliant population, evermore reliant in the State to tell them what to do and how to behave?
Or will the opposite happen? Will people start to turn away from continued anxiety in order to protect their sanity?
The elite extremist activist groups pushing an agenda have latched on to the human fact that if you repeat something enough times, humans will come to believe it and then start defending it. Hundreds of millions of your tax dollars fund this movement all done through fake charities and non profits, government funded agencies like the UN, billionaire trust funds and all the usefull idiots. The zealots have been doing this for over 50 years, making a great living. This will not stop until rich western countries stop funding it.
It seems the propaganda graphics are alive and kicking and hoping for 40c. Inner England may reach 40c today 19th July whilst outer England around the coastal areas is forecast to be cooler, but according to ITV weather forecast teatime18th the coastal town of Hull was forecast as 40c. I thought I would have a look today. BBC 38. Acu 37. Met 34. I’m in Redcar. BBC 36. Acu 35 Met 39 Just where do they get these forecasts from before the event has happened and why are they so different when the event has happened.
As already suggested, a temperature of 40C has now been recorded for the first time ever at … heathrow airport.
The Fire of London probably caused by a
barbecue, a bottle left on heathland or somebody arson about, has now become the climate alarmists fear porn image.The sky presenter Sarah Jane-Mee was so biased and alarmist with attribution bias frim m their “meterologist”. Kew Gardens and Heathrow are of course above 40 degrees. This will keep happening and its all about shoring up the pointless and punitive to the poor net zero.
Mean Maximum Temperature England July trend line shows almost a straight line increase from 19.5 in 1960 to 21.5 in 2020. It does indeed look a bit like Thermageddon, doesn’t it?