Vaccine effectiveness against Omicron drops to zero within six months but natural immunity remains robust for at least a year, a new study from Qatar has found.
The study, published in the New England Journal of Medicine, looked at all symptomatic PCR-positive Covid infections in Qatar during the Omicron wave from December 23rd 2021 to February 21st 2022. As can be seen in the chart below, it found that protection from natural immunity (the blue dots on the left) endured at a level of around 50% for at least a year, meaning the infection rate in the previously infected was half that in those not previously infected. However, two vaccine doses of either Pfizer or Moderna (light green dots in middle) dropped to zero effectiveness or below within six months. A third dose (dark green dots on right) appeared to restore some protection in the short term, but it was dropping fast even during the short follow-up period. The authors, aware of the short follow-up time, explain that “most persons received their third dose less than 45 days earlier, perhaps explaining the relatively high effectiveness”.
The study was a test-negative case-control study, a type of study known to exaggerate vaccine effectiveness (owing to, for example, the vaccinated being more susceptible to Covid-like illness that isn’t Covid, such as colds and flu). This means the true picture may be significantly worse than found in this study. Recall that an earlier Qatar study on the Delta variant had already found vaccine effectiveness wane to negligible levels within seven months, and Omicron is much better at evading vaccine protection than Delta.
The cases were matched to controls to take into account differences of age, sex and epidemic phase. The study only included symptomatic positives, which is a plus as it avoids most false positives. It also excluded any tests that occurred within 14 days after a second dose or seven days after a third dose rather than counting them in another category, which avoids miscategorisation issues. There will however be some survivor bias as anyone vaccinated who gets infected in the post-jab exclusion period doesn’t count towards the vaccinated case total, leaving fewer susceptible people in the vaccine arm.
One point of note is that the authors observe that the protection offered by being both vaccinated and previously infected turns out to be exactly equal to the protection you would expect if the two forms of protection had an independent effect:
Because previous infection reduced the risk of infection by 50% and booster vaccination reduced it by 60%, the reduction in the risk of infection for both combined, if they acted fully independently, would be 1−(1−0.5)×(1−0.6)=0.8, which is an 80% reduction, just as observed. Although this effect needs to be further investigated, this finding may suggest that the combined effect of these two forms of immunity against omicron infection reflects neither synergy nor redundancy of the individual biologic effects of each.
One interpretation of this is that the vaccines and previous infection give different, independent forms of immunity, with the vaccine form waning quickly and the previous infection form enduring.
Another interpretation, however, is that the vaccine protection is an illusion created by survivor bias (the exclusion of those infected during the post-jab period), which is why it quickly fades and is wholly additive to natural immunity.
Meanwhile, the U.K. Government has updated its official estimate of vaccine effectiveness against Omicron. The latest UKHSA Vaccine Surveillance report shows Pfizer third-dose vaccine effectiveness dropping to negligible levels within 20 weeks (five months; see below).
This, again, is a test-negative case-control study, so is generous to the vaccines – we know the raw data, back when UKHSA used to publish them, showed infection rates many times higher in the vaccinated than the unvaccinated in many age groups. So when even this study shows negligible vaccine effectiveness you know they’ve accepted they can’t hide it anymore.
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the GLP, an entity funded primarily by the public
This statement might give the impression it was in some way tax-payer funded. To be clear – it is non-profit funded by donations.
I wonder where some of those donations have come from?
Suckers. Maugham loses every case.
“We are hugely grateful to have received support from Avaaz, Joseph Rowntree Reform Trust, Lund Trust, a charitable fund of Lisbet Rausing and Peter Baldwin, Necessity, 38 Degrees, and Dale Vince, CEO of Ecotricity.“
The enemy.
The GLP is headed up by Jolyon Maughan, the fox killing KC, a legend in his own lunchbox.
in his wife’s Kimono, I think you mean.
Three downvotes for pointing out a fact!
I am just pleased to get 44 upvotes – a novel experience for me.
It’s essentially funded by the radical left/big money.
The Good Law Project?
This rogue outfit clearly does not have a clue about ‘good law’ and is very definitely conducting itself via false promises. The failure to understand what has gone on these last three years is staggering. Furthermore, the dangers of the so called vaccines are now becoming mainstream. Does the GLP not understand what underscores the Hippocratic Oath – first do no harm?
HART and other like-minded groups should consider taking the GLP to court. I would happily contribute.
Perhaps it should be renamed; how about “The Oxymoronic Project”?
Or Grift Law Project?
The Good Law Project that loses every case it takes to court.
At the same time, didn’t the GMC try to section Dr Sam White if I remember correctly.
Dr Sam White won his case on the basis of freedom of speech, judgement since removed from the website where case judgements are posted for reference, so it’s good to see that the GMC are applying the judgement to Dr Malhotra’s case.
My understanding of the GLP is they only exist to campaign for donations to pay their fees so that they can carry out lawfare.
Congratulations to all the signatories in support of Dr Malhotra.
An courageous and outstandingly honourable position to have taken
The GLP has form. See Guido Fawkes for his many postings on Jolyon Maughan, the founder of GLP. He comments that “Jolyon Maugham triggers Judical Reviews as often as Guido has hangovers”. I rest my case m’lord.
Well this particular ‘case’ is not on the GLP website, so I’m wondering if they have since disassociated from it (this dates back to June). The fact that they have ‘nearly raised £5k in all that time since speaks volumes.
No doubt that is precisely the intent.
Somebody doesn’t want independent doctors but rather obedient foot soldiers.
Didn’t the GLP get one of their recent cases thrown out when the judge decided that they themselves had no ‘standing’ inthe case (ie not directly impacted by the law they were seeking to challenge)
Well, GLP are clearly neither involved in, nor impacted by the decision to allow Aseem to speak his mind.
This is simply an attempt to use the courts to cancel someone they dislike. Fatuous nonsense, I hope this case dies on its ar5e.
It probably will and the GLP probably know it too.
Regardless, they will have achieved their aim which is one of intimidation.
Other doctors will have taken note and will be that much more reluctant to speak up just to avoid the hassle of a lawsuit, because however spurious, fighting one takes time, money and energy.
Jolyon Maugham, who runs GLP is the classic champagne socialist. There may be people who don’t know in which case please the following link highlighting his notorious role as a notorious beater to death of foxes, just in case….. RSPCA investigates after lawyer Jolyon Maugham kills fox with baseball bat – BBC News.
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/doctors-resist-attempts-to-silence-dr-malhotra/
TCW have reported this as Breaking News.
The more the better.
Oh dear, if the kimono-clad fox-killer is involved then it certainly isn’t anything related to good law. Leftwaffe arse.
I’m just thankful we still have a modicum of free speech in this country – evidenced by the freedom of the ‘Good Law Project’ to make an utter fool of themselves. Chilling, nonetheless and also chilling is their 1984 distortion of language in their title.
Who is Dr Matt Kneale and why did he instigate this case against the GMC and Dr Malhotra?
Jealousy or money. The old favourites for legal action.
I suspect a sectarian angle: “Malhotra” is a name associated with Hindu and/or Sikh beliefs; “Matt Kneale” has clear Islamic connotations.
Thank you for lightening my mood.
Never heard of him before but if it’s the same Matthew Kneale who has made several (approx 900) FOI requests, he has a keen interest in Trust disciplinary processes and GMC referrals…and also free car parking for NHS staff.
https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/user/matthew_kneale
a.k.a. a complete Bellend with far to much time on his hands. Co-Chair of Doctors; Association UK – “A non-profit organisation lead by frontline doctors. Led by frontline doctors. For frontline doctors. We advocate for both the medical profession and patients and we fight for a better NHS”
That’s alright then, no possible conflicts of interest here. A low rent version of the BMA.
The Good Law Project – which supported Mermaids in their disastrous own-goal legal challenge against the LGB Alliance – has a name like 1984’s Ministry of Peace, Ministry of Love and Ministry of Plenty.
Only sorry I didn’t hear about this, as I would have signed it as well.
“Good Law Project”
Pull the other one.
If you’ve got to include the word “good” in the name, it means it probably isn’t.
BTW good interview with Dr Malhotra on the Highwire last week.
Hopefully this is a case of any publicity is good publicity for the cause. We need more medics to speak out.
I have previously supported the Good Law with donations. Never again.
Me too and I am or was on their email list, but certainly never got one about this case.
Once again I do not see one GP or rheumatologist’s name in our practice or local hospital. Surely they are witnessing the severe serious adverse events and deaths post covid vaxxes. I have lost faith in our GP’s and consultants. How on earth, can they continue to participate in the admin of these unsafe and ineffective experimental biologicals?
My guess is that they are keeping their heads down, knowing how deep in the sh1t they are and incapable of imagining a way out.
GLP seem to have shut down their contact form as mine would not send.
“I have previously donated to GLP’s projects.
Your apparently unreasonable witch hunt of Dr. Aseem Malhotra is beyond the pale and I will not be supporting GLP ever again.
Such a shame and very much anti free speech. “
Jolyon Maugham, Law’s most affected and Narcissistic practitioner, expert in emptying the pockets of suckers to fund his hopeless cases.
Good Law Project.
I declare an oxymoron.