I would like to thank Ian for his response to my post about the morality of supplying arms to Ukraine. However, I find it odd that he describes my post as “wrong on every level”, since its purpose was to express reservations/raise doubts about the policy of arming Ukraine, rather than to argue forcefully against doing so.
I said it is “by no means clear” that supplying arms is the right thing to do; I did not say that supplying arms is definitely the wrong thing to do. Moreover, I said: “it’s entirely possible that, thanks to all the arms we’ve sent, the Ukrainians will either defeat the Russians, or will hold out long enough to bargain for a good settlement”.
Does Ian believe that it’s “wrong on every level” to express reservations/raise doubts about pouring billions of dollars worth of weapons into foreign country? Does he disagree with my conclusion that Western leaders should at least be considering the possibility that arming Ukraine could do more harm than good?
The only policy of which I expressed strong disapproval, and of which I continue to disapprove strongly, was that of turning Ukraine into ‘another Afghanistan’. I will now address some of Ian’s specific points.
He suggests that my main argument was that “by providing weaponry, the West might prolong a war, and thus prolong hardship”. This isn’t quite right. My main argument was that by providing weaponry, the West might prolong a war to such an extent that the average Ukrainian would be worse off than if those arms hadn’t been provided.
To support this argument, I drew an analogy with the Syrian Civil War, suggesting that ordinary Syrians might be better off today if the US had not armed rebel groups. Ian may disagree with this suggestion, or may believe the Syrian Civil War is not a good analogy, but it’s important to clarify exactly what I said.
Ian claims my argument could be applied to any conflict where one side is “able to inflict sufficient harm on the populace of its enemy”, but that isn’t true. I considered the possible consequences of supplying arms, and claimed that “a very bloody conflict that drags on for ten years” would be worse than Russian annexation of half the country.
He may disagree with this claim. But it doesn’t mean that what I was saying is: whenever one side can inflict a lot of harm on the other, you should just let that side win.
Suppose, for the sake of argument, that a reasonable worst-case scenario is Russia killing every last Ukrainian. In that case, the argument for supplying arms would be overwhelming, as no outcome could be worse for ordinary Ukrainians than this. Hence I was not signing up to any sort of “aggressors’ charter”.
Ian then claims that, under my line of argument, freedom becomes “something like a subjective value judgement” rather than “an absolute moral right”. Here he’s correct – this is what I was arguing. (By “freedom”, I think he means ‘the freedom not to live under foreign occupation’.)
There are two reasons why I believe this. First, as I’ve already tried to make clear, some things are worse than living under foreign occupation, such as living in a perpetual warzone. Personally, I would prefer to live under Russian rule than in somewhere like Syria circa 2014. He may have a different preference. But clearly people do disagree.
Second, if you take the view that freedom is “an absolute moral right”, then the West should be intervening in every conflict around the world where people believe they’re living under foreign occupation.
Many Palestinians believe this. Should we supply arms to the Palestinians? Many Yemenis believe this. Should we supply arms to the Yemenis? Many Iraqis believed it in 2003. Should we have supplied arms to the Iraqis, rather than joining the American-led invasion of that country?
I would add that the situation in Ukraine is more complicated than he suggests. Yes, outside Crimea and the Donbass, the majority of Ukrainians (probably the vast majority) oppose Russian annexation. However, this does not mean there’s a simple choice between freedom on the one hand and tyranny on the other.
For example, many ethnically Russian Ukrainians strongly oppose the post-Maidan government’s decisions to ban Russian media, arrest opposition leaders, and abolish minority language rights. To be clear: I’m not saying these things justify Putin’s invasion. But they’re clearly violations of people’s freedom.
Toward the end of his article, Ian implies that I was trying to ‘second-guess’ the preferences of the Ukrainian people. And that’s true. But by taking the opposing position, he’s doing the exact same thing. Neither of us has any data, and at this point in the conflict reliable data would be very difficult to gather.
What’s more, I didn’t dispute that there are many Ukrainians who want to fight. I merely asked whether they will be “just as keen to fight if the war drags on for months or even years”.
By way of conclusion, let me reiterate that supplying arms to Ukraine may work, but we shouldn’t just assume it’s the right policy. From where I stand, the best thing the West can do is pressure both sides to negotiate, in the hope of a reaching some kind of settlement – like the one John Mearsheimer suggested in 2014.
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First they came for the anti-lockdown protesters, and I did not speak out – because I was not a lockdown protester…
Then they came for the unvaccinated, and I did not speak out – because I was vaccinated…
Then they came for booster refuseniks, and I did not speak out – because I was a booster shot taker…
Then they came for me – and there was no one left to speak for me.
SOUTHWEST CAVES! Cancels Plan to Put Unvaxxed on Unpaid Leave!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4EV_dOFGA8
https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/13.1.0/svg/1f388.svgFriday 22nd October 11am https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/13.1.0/svg/1f388.svg
Yellow Boards Event – Stand by the Road
Tesco Superstore
17 County Ln, Warfield, Bracknell RG42 3JP
https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/13.1.0/svg/1f388.svgSaturday 30th October 2pm https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/13.1.0/svg/1f388.svg
SPECIAL STAND IN THE PARK WINDSOR with Yellow Boards
Alexander Park (near Bandstand) Stand in the Park
Barry Rd/Goswell Rd
Windsor SL4 1QY
Meet in the Park 2pm followed by walk to
Stand in the Town Centre By the Castle
About 2 hours in total.
https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/13.1.0/svg/2764.svg Stand in the Park https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/13.1.0/svg/2764.svgMake friends – keep sane – talk freedom and have a laugh
Wokingham Stand in the Park Howard Palmer Gardens RG40 2HD Sundays 10am
behind the Cockpit Path car park in the centre of the town
Telegram http://t.me/astandintheparkbracknell
I met this lady outside Parliament yesterday. She is only the side of good. We all know who is only the side of evil
SOUTHWEST CAVES! Cancels Plan to Put Unvaxxed on Unpaid Leave!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4EV_dOFGA8
Friday 22nd October 11am
Yellow Boards Event – Stand by the Road
Tesco Superstore
17 County Ln, Warfield, Bracknell RG42 3JP
Saturday 30th October 2pm
SPECIAL STAND IN THE PARK WINDSOR with Yellow Boards
Alexander Park (near Bandstand) Stand in the Park
Barry Rd/Goswell Rd
Windsor SL4 1QY
Meet in the Park 2pm followed by walk to
Stand in the Town Centre By the Castle
About 2 hours in total.
Stand in the Park
Make friends – keep sane – talk freedom and have a laugh
Wokingham Stand in the Park Howard Palmer Gardens RG40 2HD Sundays 10am
behind the Cockpit Path car park in the centre of the town
Telegram http://t.me/astandintheparkbracknell
Good cause.
Help someone who stands firm.
Pledge made.
“Evil triumphs when good men and women do nothing”.
She is one of a number of selfless heros who deserve our praise and support.
Who’s the quote by?
It’s a popular misquote, probably an adaptstion of this from Edmund Burke.
“When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall, one by one, an unpitied sacrifice in a contemptible struggle.”
It makes a good point though. If we do nothing, evil will prevail.
Looks fake as fuck!
Debbie Hicks is 33 in numerology. Could be a freemason.
Absolutely.
There’s no way at least three police officers would be involved in arresting her when there’s so much violent crime happening, and the idea that British Bobbies would wear masks to hide their identities is laughable.
Only three rozzers!? Your British cops aren’t trying hard enough. See Victoria’s finest showing how it should be done. And there’s plenty more where that came from in the Victorian franchise of the Little Covid Shop of Lockdown Horrors
She should have glued herself to the M25.
Glad to see DS making a contribution to this
Out of interest. How did she keep getting arrested at protests, was she pushing herself forward or was she being targeted?
These controversial crowd funding things need an anonymous way to contribute. At some point in the future they will grab all the data and hunt us down. I’d suggest using Bitcoin and not requiring identifying details. That should make it a lot harder to come after people.
If they win, they’ll be hunting us down, anyway.
Done!
Keep up the great work folks.
Also, let’s all boycott any and every event or venue that demands the NHS app or a test result.
Why is it Lawyers never do anything for free?
I have to say I didn’t agree with her hospital filming stunt.
To be fair, some do. (Not many)
At least 2 Hypocrites liked her stunt. You claim its an intrusion & discrimination if some asks your excuse for not wearing a mask, but think nothing of abusing sick people’s privacy wondering around hospitals with a camera.
She literally filmed herself braking the law, then published the evidence on social media. Save your money, she’s got no defence & no chance.
Looks like the 77th can’t find people who can spell.
Clearly we are becoming a police state. She is heading for a show trial.
I’d like to learn more about her “crime” of filming an empty hospital ward.
I thought about going to my local hospital in the first lockdowns and trying to do the same thing, but I didn’t have the guts. She did.
Many of these hospitals were as empty as they have ever been in the fist six or so months of the lockdowns.
Even today, it would be interesting to see who is really being treated, what ages and what medial conditions they are being treated for.
It’s quite convenient that the hospitals have been off limits to journalists or citizen journalists for almost all of this pandemic.
The hospitals that we have all paid tax for over the years so should be entitled to walk round at any time.
Pledge made.
Pledge made. The amount pledged has doubled today, thanks DS for raising this.